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  • 1
    Keywords: Report ; Dissertation ; Hochschulschrift ; Forschungsbericht
    Type of Medium: Book
    Pages: II, 114 S , Ill., graph. Darst., KT
    Language: German
    Note: Zugl.: Hamburg, Univ., Diss
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2023-07-20
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉The dryness of the stratosphere is the result of air entering through the cold tropical tropopause layer (TTL). However, our understanding of the moisture flux partitioning into water vapor and frozen hydrometeors is incomplete. This raises concerns regarding the ability of General Circulation Models to accurately predict changes in stratospheric water vapor following perturbations in the radiative budget due to volcanic aerosol or stratospheric geoengineering. We present the first results using a global storm‐resolving model investigating the sensitivity of moisture fluxes within the TTL to an additional heating source. We address the question how the partitioning of moisture fluxes into water vapor and frozen hydrometeors changes under perturbations. The analysis reveals the resilience of the TTL, keeping the flux partitioning constant even at an average cold‐point warming exceeding 8 K. In the control and perturbed simulations, water vapor contributes around 80% of the moisture entering the stratosphere.〈/p〉
    Description: Plain Language Summary: The stratosphere is a dry region since moisture entering it from below has to pass the cold‐point, a temperature minimum between troposphere and stratosphere. The low temperatures lead to ice formation and sedimentation of moisture. Frozen moisture within clouds rising above the cold‐point tropopause can pass this temperature barrier and be injected into the stratosphere, where temperatures increase again, promoting the melting and sublimation of ice crystals. However, little is known about the sensitivity of the split of moisture entering the stratosphere into frozen and non‐frozen moisture, especially under external influences, like heating by volcanic aerosol or stratospheric geoengineering efforts. Convective parameterizations in conventional simulations can lead to biases. The emerging km‐scale simulations, which explicitly resolve the physical processes, offer the unique possibility to study moisture fluxes under external forcing while circumventing the downsides of parameterizations. Here, the sensitivity of the moisture flux partitioning into non‐frozen and frozen components to an additional heating source is studied for the first time in global storm‐resolving simulations. The analysis reveals an unaltered flux partitioning even at an average cold‐point warming exceeding 8 K. In the control and perturbed simulations, water vapor contributes around 80% of the moisture entering the stratosphere.〈/p〉
    Description: Key Points:Water vapor dominates the stratospheric moisture budget with a contribution of around 80% in global storm‐resolving simulation. The partitioning of stratospheric moisture fluxes into vapor and frozen hydrometeors remains stable under large temperature perturbations.
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347
    Description: Fueglistaler Group
    Keywords: ddc:551.5 ; stratospheric water vapor ; tropopause ; perturbation ; moisture budget ; geoengineering ; volcano
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:article
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2018-01-19
    Description: A seasonal forecast system is presented, based on the global coupled climate model MPI-ESM as used for CMIP5 simulations. We describe the initialisation of the system and analyse its predictive skill for surface temperature. The presented system is initialised in the atmospheric, oceanic, and sea ice component of the model from reanalysis/observations with full field nudging in all three components. For the initialisation of the ensemble, bred vectors with a vertically varying norm are implemented in the ocean component to generate initial perturbations. In a set of ensemble hindcast simulations, starting each May and November between 1982 and 2010, we analyse the predictive skill. Bias-corrected ensemble forecasts for each start date reproduce the observed surface temperature anomalies at 2–4 months lead time, particularly in the tropics. Niño3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies show a small root-mean-square error and predictive skill up to 6 months. Away from the tropics, predictive skill is mostly limited to the ocean, and to regions which are strongly influenced by ENSO teleconnections. In summary, the presented seasonal prediction system based on a coupled climate model shows predictive skill for surface temperature at seasonal time scales comparable to other seasonal prediction systems using different underlying models and initialisation strategies. As the same model underlying our seasonal prediction system—with a different initialisation—is presently also used for decadal predictions, this is an important step towards seamless seasonal-to-decadal climate predictions.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
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  • 4
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    In:  [Talk] In: Second International Conference on Earth System Modelling, 27.-31.08, Hamburg .
    Publication Date: 2012-02-23
    Type: Conference or Workshop Item , NonPeerReviewed
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2012-02-23
    Type: Conference or Workshop Item , NonPeerReviewed
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  • 6
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    In:  [Invited talk] In: International Workshop on Global Change Projection: Modeling, Intercomparison, and Impact Assessment jointly with 2nd International Workshop on KAKUSHIN Program, 18.-20-02, Yokohama, Japan .
    Publication Date: 2012-02-23
    Type: Conference or Workshop Item , NonPeerReviewed
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  • 7
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    In:  [Talk] In: ENSEMBLES general assembly, 12.-16.11, Prague .
    Publication Date: 2012-02-23
    Type: Conference or Workshop Item , NonPeerReviewed
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  • 8
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    Taylor & Francis
    In:  Tellus A: Dynamic meteorology and oceanography, 59 . pp. 539-561.
    Publication Date: 2016-06-14
    Description: Tropical cyclones (TC) under different climate conditions in the Northern Hemisphere have been investigated with the Max Planck Institute (MPI) coupled (ECHAM5/MPI-OM) and atmosphere (ECHAM5) climate models. The intensity and size of the TC depend crucially on resolution with higher wind speed and smaller scales at the higher resolutions. The typical size of the TC is reduced by a factor of 2.3 from T63 to T319 using the distance of the maximum wind speed from the centre of the storm as a measure. The full three-dimensional structure of the storms becomes increasingly more realistic as the resolution is increased. For the T63 resolution, three ensemble runs are explored for the period 1860 until 2100 using the IPCC SRES scenario A1B and evaluated for three 30 yr periods at the end of the 19th, 20th and 21st century, respectively. While there is no significant change between the 19th and the 20th century, there is a considerable reduction in the number of the TC by some 20% in the 21st century, but no change in the number of the more intense storms. Reduction in the number of storms occurs in all regions. A single additional experiment at T213 resolution was run for the two latter 30-yr periods. The T213 is an atmospheric only experiment using the transient sea surface temperatures (SST) of the T63 resolution experiment. Also in this case, there is a reduction by some 10% in the number of simulated TC in the 21st century compared to the 20th century but a marked increase in the number of intense storms. The number of storms with maximum wind speeds greater than 50 m s−1 increases by a third. Most of the intensification takes place in the Eastern Pacific and in the Atlantic where also the number of storms more or less stays the same. We identify two competing processes effecting TC in a warmer climate. First, the increase in the static stability and the reduced vertical circulation is suggested to contribute to the reduction in the number of storms. Second, the increase in temperature and water vapour provide more energy for the storms so that when favourable conditions occur, the higher SST and higher specific humidity will contribute to more intense storms. As the maximum intensity depends crucially on resolution, this will require higher resolution to have its full effect. The distribution of storms between different regions does not, at first approximation, depend on the temperature itself but on the distribution of the SST anomalies and their influence on the atmospheric circulation. Two additional transient experiments at T319 resolution where run for 20 yr at the end of the 20th and 21st century, respectively, using the same conditions as in the T213 experiments. The results are consistent with the T213 study. The total number of TC were similar to the T213 experiment but were generally more intense. The change from the 20th to the 21st century was also similar with fewer TC in total but with more intense cyclones.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2020-02-18
    Description: The climate of the North Atlantic region exhibits fluctuations on decadal timescales that have large societal consequences. Prominent examples include hurricane activity in the Atlantic1, and surface-temperature and rainfall variations over North America2, Europe3 and northern Africa4. Although these multidecadal variations are potentially predictable if the current state of the ocean is known5, 6, 7, the lack of subsurface ocean observations8 that constrain this state has been a limiting factor for realizing the full skill potential of such predictions9. Here we apply a simple approach—that uses only sea surface temperature (SST) observations—to partly overcome this difficulty and perform retrospective decadal predictions with a climate model. Skill is improved significantly relative to predictions made with incomplete knowledge of the ocean state10, particularly in the North Atlantic and tropical Pacific oceans. Thus these results point towards the possibility of routine decadal climate predictions. Using this method, and by considering both internal natural climate variations and projected future anthropogenic forcing, we make the following forecast: over the next decade, the current Atlantic meridional overturning circulation will weaken to its long-term mean; moreover, North Atlantic SST and European and North American surface temperatures will cool slightly, whereas tropical Pacific SST will remain almost unchanged. Our results suggest that global surface temperature may not increase over the next decade, as natural climate variations in the North Atlantic and tropical Pacific temporarily offset the projected anthropogenic warming.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2023-01-03
    Description: ICON-A is the new icosahedral nonhydrostatic (ICON) atmospheric general circulation model in a configuration using the Max Planck Institute physics package, which originates from the ECHAM6 general circulation model, and has been adapted to account for the changed dynamical core framework. The coupling scheme between dynamics and physics employs a sequential updating by dynamics and physics, and a fixed sequence of the physical processes similar to ECHAM6. To allow a meaningful initial comparison between ICON-A and the established ECHAM6-LR model, a setup with similar, low resolution in terms of number of grid points and levels is chosen. The ICON-A model is tuned on the base of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) experiment aiming primarily at a well balanced top-of atmosphere energy budget to make the model suitable for coupled climate and Earth system modeling. The tuning addresses first the moisture and cloud distribution to achieve the top-of-atmosphere energy balance, followed by the tuning of the parameterized dynamic drag aiming at reduced wind errors in the troposphere. The resulting version of ICON-A has overall biases, which are comparable to those of ECHAM6. Problematic specific biases remain in the vertical distribution of clouds and in the stratospheric circulation, where the winter vortices are too weak. Biases in precipitable water and tropospheric temperature are, however, reduced compared to the ECHAM6. ICON-A will serve as the basis of further development and as the atmosphere component to the coupled model, ICON-Earth system model (ESM). Key Points: - Physics package for climate modeling is coupled to a nonhydrostatic dynamical core - Tuning in five steps to obtain a balanced net radiation at top of atmosphere - Overall biases of ICON-A are comparable to ECHAM6.3, but circulation biases remain due to problems with parameterized drag
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
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