Description: The Humboldt Upwelling System is of global interest due to its importance to fisheries, though the origin of its high productivity remains elusive. In regional physical‐biogeochemical model simulations, the seasonal amplitude of mesozooplankton net production exceeds that of phytoplankton, indicating “seasonal trophic amplification.” An analytical approach identifies amplification to be driven by a seasonally varying trophic transfer efficiency due to mixed layer variations. The latter alters the vertical distribution of phytoplankton and thus the zooplankton and phytoplankton encounters, with lower encounters occurring in a deeper mixed layer where phytoplankton are diluted. In global model simulations, mixed layer depth appears to affect trophic transfer similarly in other productive regions. Our results highlight the importance of mixed layer depth for trophodynamics on a seasonal scale with potential significant implications, given mixed layer depth changes projected under climate change.

Description: Plain Language Summary: The Humboldt Upwelling System is a fishery‐important region. A common assumption is that a certain amount of phytoplankton supports a proportional amount of fish. However, we find that a small seasonal change in phytoplankton can trigger a larger variation in zooplankton. This implies that one may underestimate changes in fish solely based on phytoplankton. Using ecosystem model simulations, we investigate why changes of phytoplankton are not proportionally reflected in zooplankton. The portion of phytoplankton that ends up in zooplankton is controlled by the changing depth of the surface ocean “mixed layer.” The “mixed layer” traps both the phytoplankton and zooplankton in a limited amount of space. When the “mixed layer” is shallow, zooplankton can feed more efficiently on phytoplankton as both are compressed in a comparatively smaller space. We conclude that in the Humboldt System, and other “food‐rich” regions, feeding efficiently, determined by the “mixed layer,” is more important than how much food is available.

Description: Key Points: Environmental factors strongly affect plankton trophodynamics on a seasonal scale. Seasonal trophic amplification in the Humboldt system is driven by mixed layer dynamics. Mixed layer depth and food chain efficiency correlate also in other productive regions.

Description: China Sponsorship Council

Description: Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347

Description: The Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP) focuses on the physics and biogeochemistry of the ocean component of Earth system models participating in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). OMIP aims to provide standard protocols and diagnostics for ocean models, while offering a forum to promote their common assessment and improvement. It also offers to compare solutions of the same ocean models when forced with reanalysis data (OMIP simulations) vs. when integrated within fully coupled Earth system models (CMIP6). Here we detail simulation protocols and diagnostics for OMIP's biogeochemical and inert chemical tracers. These passive-tracer simulations will be coupled to ocean circulation models, initialized with observational data or output from a model spin-up, and forced by repeating the 1948–2009 surface fluxes of heat, fresh water, and momentum. These so-called OMIP-BGC simulations include three inert chemical tracers (CFC-11, CFC-12, SF6) and biogeochemical tracers (e.g., dissolved inorganic carbon, carbon isotopes, alkalinity, nutrients, and oxygen). Modelers will use their preferred prognostic BGC model but should follow common guidelines for gas exchange and carbonate chemistry. Simulations include both natural and total carbon tracers. The required forced simulation (omip1) will be initialized with gridded observational climatologies. An optional forced simulation (omip1-spunup) will be initialized instead with BGC fields from a long model spin-up, preferably for 2000 years or more, and forced by repeating the same 62-year meteorological forcing. That optional run will also include abiotic tracers of total dissolved inorganic carbon and radiocarbon, CTabio and 14CTabio, to assess deep-ocean ventilation and distinguish the role of physics vs. biology. These simulations will be forced by observed atmospheric histories of the three inert gases and CO2 as well as carbon isotope ratios of CO2. OMIP-BGC simulation protocols are founded on those from previous phases of the Ocean Carbon-Cycle Model Intercomparison Project. They have been merged and updated to reflect improvements concerning gas exchange, carbonate chemistry, and new data for initial conditions and atmospheric gas histories. Code is provided to facilitate their implementation.

Description: The Humboldt Upwelling System is of global interest due to its importance to fisheries, though the origin of its high productivity remains elusive. In regional physical-biogeochemical model simulations, the seasonal amplitude of mesozooplankton net production exceeds that of phytoplankton, indicating “seasonal trophic amplification.” An analytical approach identifies amplification to be driven by a seasonally varying trophic transfer efficiency due to mixed layer variations. The latter alters the vertical distribution of phytoplankton and thus the zooplankton and phytoplankton encounters, with lower encounters occurring in a deeper mixed layer where phytoplankton are diluted. In global model simulations, mixed layer depth appears to affect trophic transfer similarly in other productive regions. Our results highlight the importance of mixed layer depth for trophodynamics on a seasonal scale with potential significant implications, given mixed layer depth changes projected under climate change.

Description: The Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP) focuses on the physics and biogeochemistry of the ocean component of Earth system models participating in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). OMIP aims to provide standard protocols and diagnostics for ocean models, while offering a forum to promote their common assessment and improvement. It also offers to compare solutions of the same ocean models when forced with reanalysis data (OMIP simulations) vs. when integrated within fully coupled Earth system models (CMIP6). Here we detail simulation protocols and diagnostics for OMIP’s biogeochemical and inert chemical tracers. These passive-tracer simulations will be coupled to ocean circulation models, initialized with observational data or output from a model spin-up, and forced by repeating the 1948– 2009 surface fluxes of heat, fresh water, and momentum. These so-called OMIP-BGC simulations include three inert chemical tracers (CFC-11, CFC-12, SF6) and biogeochemical tracers (e.g., dissolved inorganic carbon, carbon isotopes, alkalinity, nutrients, and oxygen). Modelers will use their preferred prognostic BGC model but should follow common guidelines for gas exchange and carbonate chemistry. Simulations include both natural and total carbon tracers. The required forced simulation (omip1) will be initialized with gridded observational climatologies. An optional forced simulation (omip1-spunup) will be initialized instead with BGC fields from a long model spin-up, preferably for 2000 years or more, and forced by repeating the same 62-year meteorological forcing. That optional run will also include abiotic tracers of total dissolved inorganic carbon and radiocarbon, Cabio T and 14Cabio T , to assess deep-ocean ventilation and distinguish the role of physics vs. biology. These simulations will be forced by observed atmospheric histories of the three inert gases and CO2 as well as carbon isotope ratios of CO2. OMIP-BGC simulation protocols are founded on those from previous phases of the Ocean Carbon-Cycle Model Intercomparison Project. They have been merged and updated to reflect improvements concerning gas exchange, carbonate chemistry, and new data for initial conditions and atmospheric gas histories. Code is provided to facilitate their implementation.

Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society 2006. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 19 (2006): 3033–3054, doi:10.1175/JCLI3783.1.

Description: A new 3D global coupled carbon–climate model is presented in the framework of the Community Climate System Model (CSM-1.4). The biogeochemical module includes explicit land water–carbon coupling, dynamic carbon allocation to leaf, root, and wood, prognostic leaf phenology, multiple soil and detrital carbon pools, oceanic iron limitation, a full ocean iron cycle, and 3D atmospheric CO2 transport. A sequential spinup strategy is utilized to minimize the coupling shock and drifts in land and ocean carbon inventories. A stable, 1000-yr control simulation [global annual mean surface temperature ±0.10 K and atmospheric CO2 ± 1.2 ppm (1σ)] is presented with no flux adjustment in either physics or biogeochemistry. The control simulation compares reasonably well against observations for key annual mean and seasonal carbon cycle metrics; regional biases in coupled model physics, however, propagate clearly into biogeochemical error patterns. Simulated interannual-to-centennial variability in atmospheric CO2 is dominated by terrestrial carbon flux variability, ±0.69 Pg C yr−1 (1σ global net annual mean), which in turn reflects primarily regional changes in net primary production modulated by moisture stress. Power spectra of global CO2 fluxes are white on time scales beyond a few years, and thus most of the variance is concentrated at high frequencies (time scale 〈4 yr). Model variability in air–sea CO2 fluxes, ±0.10 Pg C yr−1 (1σ global annual mean), is generated by variability in sea surface temperature, wind speed, export production, and mixing/upwelling. At low frequencies (time scale 〉20 yr), global net ocean CO2 flux is strongly anticorrelated (0.7–0.95) with the net CO2 flux from land; the ocean tends to damp (20%–25%) slow variations in atmospheric CO2 generated by the terrestrial biosphere. The intrinsic, unforced natural variability in land and ocean carbon storage is the “noise” that complicates the detection and mechanistic attribution of contemporary anthropogenic carbon sinks.

Description: This work was supported by NCAR, NSF ATM-9987457, NASA EOS-IDS Grant NAG5-9514, NASA Carbon Cycle Program Grant NAG5-11200, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory LDRD, and the WHOI Ocean and Climate Change Institute.

Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society 2006. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 19 (2006): 3337–3353, doi:10.1175/JCLI3800.1.

Description: Eleven coupled climate–carbon cycle models used a common protocol to study the coupling between climate change and the carbon cycle. The models were forced by historical emissions and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 anthropogenic emissions of CO2 for the 1850–2100 time period. For each model, two simulations were performed in order to isolate the impact of climate change on the land and ocean carbon cycle, and therefore the climate feedback on the atmospheric CO2 concentration growth rate. There was unanimous agreement among the models that future climate change will reduce the efficiency of the earth system to absorb the anthropogenic carbon perturbation. A larger fraction of anthropogenic CO2 will stay airborne if climate change is accounted for. By the end of the twenty-first century, this additional CO2 varied between 20 and 200 ppm for the two extreme models, the majority of the models lying between 50 and 100 ppm. The higher CO2 levels led to an additional climate warming ranging between 0.1° and 1.5°C. All models simulated a negative sensitivity for both the land and the ocean carbon cycle to future climate. However, there was still a large uncertainty on the magnitude of these sensitivities. Eight models attributed most of the changes to the land, while three attributed it to the ocean. Also, a majority of the models located the reduction of land carbon uptake in the Tropics. However, the attribution of the land sensitivity to changes in net primary productivity versus changes in respiration is still subject to debate; no consensus emerged among the models.

Description: © The Author(s), 2015. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Biogeosciences 12 (2015): 6955-6984, doi:10.5194/bg-12-6955-2015.

Description: Past model studies have projected a global decrease in marine net primary production (NPP) over the 21st century, but these studies focused on the multi-model mean rather than on the large inter-model differences. Here, we analyze model-simulated changes in NPP for the 21st century under IPCC's high-emission scenario RCP8.5. We use a suite of nine coupled carbon–climate Earth system models with embedded marine ecosystem models and focus on the spread between the different models and the underlying reasons. Globally, NPP decreases in five out of the nine models over the course of the 21st century, while three show no significant trend and one even simulates an increase. The largest model spread occurs in the low latitudes (between 30° S and 30° N), with individual models simulating relative changes between −25 and +40 %. Of the seven models diagnosing a net decrease in NPP in the low latitudes, only three simulate this to be a consequence of the classical interpretation, i.e., a stronger nutrient limitation due to increased stratification leading to reduced phytoplankton growth. In the other four, warming-induced increases in phytoplankton growth outbalance the stronger nutrient limitation. However, temperature-driven increases in grazing and other loss processes cause a net decrease in phytoplankton biomass and reduce NPP despite higher growth rates. One model projects a strong increase in NPP in the low latitudes, caused by an intensification of the microbial loop, while NPP in the remaining model changes by less than 0.5 %. While models consistently project increases NPP in the Southern Ocean, the regional inter-model range is also very substantial. In most models, this increase in NPP is driven by temperature, but it is also modulated by changes in light, macronutrients and iron as well as grazing. Overall, current projections of future changes in global marine NPP are subject to large uncertainties and necessitate a dedicated and sustained effort to improve the models and the concepts and data that guide their development.

Description: C. Laufkötter and the research leading to these results have received funding from the European Community’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7 2007–2013) under grant agreements no. 238366 (Greencycles II) and 264879 (CarboChange). M. Vogt and N. Gruber acknowledge funding by ETH Zürich. S. C. Doney and I. D. Lima acknowledge support from NSF (AGS-1048827).

Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2004. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 31 (2004): L09207, doi:10.1029/2004GL019453.

Description: We identify the climatic signatures of the summertime terrestrial photosynthesis variability using a long simulation of pre-industrial climate performed with the NCAR coupled global climate-carbon model. Since plant physiology controls simultaneously CO2 uptake and surface fluxes of water, changes in photosynthesis are accompanied by changes in numerous climate variables: daily maximum temperature, diurnal temperature range, Bowen ratio, canopy temperature and tropospheric lapse rate. Results show that these climate variables may be used as powerful proxies for photosynthesis activity for subtropical vegetation and for tropical vegetation when photosynthetic variability may be limited by water availability.

Description: Support for this work was provided by National Science Foundation grant ATM-9987457, NASA EOS-IDS grant NAG5-9514, WHOI contribution #11077 and the NCAR Climate Simulation Laboratory (CSL).

Description: © The Author(s), 2016. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Biogeosciences 13 (2016): 4023-4047, doi:10.5194/bg-13-4023-2016.

Description: Accurate projections of marine particle export production (EP) are crucial for predicting the response of the marine carbon cycle to climate change, yet models show a wide range in both global EP and their responses to climate change. This is, in part, due to EP being the net result of a series of processes, starting with net primary production (NPP) in the sunlit upper ocean, followed by the formation of particulate organic matter and the subsequent sinking and remineralisation of these particles, with each of these processes responding differently to changes in environmental conditions. Here, we compare future projections in EP over the 21st century, generated by four marine ecosystem models under the high emission scenario Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and determine the processes driving these changes. The models simulate small to modest decreases in global EP between −1 and −12 %. Models differ greatly with regard to the drivers causing these changes. Among them, the formation of particles is the most uncertain process with models not agreeing on either magnitude or the direction of change. The removal of the sinking particles by remineralisation is simulated to increase in the low and intermediate latitudes in three models, driven by either warming-induced increases in remineralisation or slower particle sinking, and show insignificant changes in the remaining model. Changes in ecosystem structure, particularly the relative role of diatoms matters as well, as diatoms produce larger and denser particles that sink faster and are partly protected from remineralisation. Also this controlling factor is afflicted with high uncertainties, particularly since the models differ already substantially with regard to both the initial (present-day) distribution of diatoms (between 11–94 % in the Southern Ocean) and the diatom contribution to particle formation (0.6–3.8 times higher than their contribution to biomass). As a consequence, changes in diatom concentration are a strong driver for EP changes in some models but of low significance in others. Observational and experimental constraints on ecosystem structure and how the fixed carbon is routed through the ecosystem to produce export production are urgently needed in order to improve current generation ecosystem models and their ability to project future changes.

Description: The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Community’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7 2007-2013) under grant agreement no. 238366. Meike Vogt and Nicolas Gruber acknowledge funding by ETH Zürich. Judith Hauck was funded by the Helmholtz Post- Doc Programme (Initiative and Networking Fund of the Helmholtz Association). Scott C. Doney and Ivan D. Lima acknowledge the support of the National Science Foundation through the Center for Microbial Oceanography Research and Education (C-MORE), an NSF Science and Technology Center (EF-0424599).