Description: Author Posting. © The Oceanography Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of The Oceanography Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Oceanography 28, no. 2 (2015): 30-39, doi:10.5670/oceanog.2015.29.

Description: Over the past decade, ocean acidification (OA) has emerged as a major concern in ocean science. The field of OA is based on certainties—uptake of carbon dioxide into the global ocean alters its carbon chemistry, and many marine organisms, especially calcifiers, are sensitive to this change. However, the field must accommodate uncertainties about the seriousness of these impacts as it synthesizes and draws conclusions from multiple disciplines. There is pressure from stakeholders to expeditiously inform society about the extent to which OA will impact marine ecosystems and the people who depend on them. Ultimately, decisions about actions related to OA require evaluating risks about the likelihood and magnitude of these impacts. As the scientific literature accumulates, some of the uncertainty related to single-species sensitivity to OA is diminishing. Difficulties remain in scaling laboratory results to species and ecosystem responses in nature, though modeling exercises provide useful insight. As recognition of OA grows, scientists’ ability to communicate the certainties and uncertainties of our knowledge on OA is crucial for interaction with decision makers. In this regard, there are a number of valuable practices that can be drawn from other fields, especially the global climate change community. A generally accepted set of best practices that scientists follow in their discussions of uncertainty would be helpful for the community engaged in ocean acidification.

Description: NOAA Ocean Acidification Program and National Marine Fisheries Service (DSB, MP), NSF-supported Center for Climate and Energy Decision Making (SCD), and NASA Ocean Biology and Biogeochemistry Program (SS).

Description: © The Author(s), 2020. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Doo, S. S., Kealoha, A., Andersson, A., Cohen, A. L., Hicks, T. L., Johnson, Z., I., Long, M. H., McElhany, P., Mollica, N., Shamberger, K. E. F., Silbiger, N. J., Takeshita, Y., & Busch, D. S. The challenges of detecting and attributing ocean acidification impacts on marine ecosystems. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 77(7-8), (2020): 2411-2422, https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsaa094.

Description: A substantial body of research now exists demonstrating sensitivities of marine organisms to ocean acidification (OA) in laboratory settings. However, corresponding in situ observations of marine species or ecosystem changes that can be unequivocally attributed to anthropogenic OA are limited. Challenges remain in detecting and attributing OA effects in nature, in part because multiple environmental changes are co-occurring with OA, all of which have the potential to influence marine ecosystem responses. Furthermore, the change in ocean pH since the industrial revolution is small relative to the natural variability within many systems, making it difficult to detect, and in some cases, has yet to cross physiological thresholds. The small number of studies that clearly document OA impacts in nature cannot be interpreted as a lack of larger-scale attributable impacts at the present time or in the future but highlights the need for innovative research approaches and analyses. We summarize the general findings in four relatively well-studied marine groups (seagrasses, pteropods, oysters, and coral reefs) and integrate overarching themes to highlight the challenges involved in detecting and attributing the effects of OA in natural environments. We then discuss four potential strategies to better evaluate and attribute OA impacts on species and ecosystems. First, we highlight the need for work quantifying the anthropogenic input of CO2 in coastal and open-ocean waters to understand how this increase in CO2 interacts with other physical and chemical factors to drive organismal conditions. Second, understanding OA-induced changes in population-level demography, potentially increased sensitivities in certain life stages, and how these effects scale to ecosystem-level processes (e.g. community metabolism) will improve our ability to attribute impacts to OA among co-varying parameters. Third, there is a great need to understand the potential modulation of OA impacts through the interplay of ecology and evolution (eco–evo dynamics). Lastly, further research efforts designed to detect, quantify, and project the effects of OA on marine organisms and ecosystems utilizing a comparative approach with long-term data sets will also provide critical information for informing the management of marine ecosystems.

Description: SSD was funded by NSF OCE (grant # 1415268). DSB and PM were supported by the NOAA Ocean Acidification Program and Northwest Fisheries Science Center, MHL was supported by NSF OCE (grant # 1633951), ZIJ was supported by NSF OCE (grant # 1416665) and DOE EERE (grant #DE-EE008518), NJS was supported by NSF OCE (grant # 1924281), ALC was supported by NSF OCE (grant # 1737311), and AA was supported by NSF OCE (grant # 1416518). KEFS, AK, and TLH were supported by Texas A&M University. This is CSUN Marine Biology contribution (# 306).