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  • 11
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    Skin Cancer Risks Avoided by the Montreal Protocol—Worldwide Modeling Integrating Coupled Climate‐Chemistry Models with a Risk Model for UV
    Wiley ; 2013
    In:  Photochemistry and Photobiology Vol. 89, No. 1 ( 2013-01), p. 234-246
    Details
    In: Photochemistry and Photobiology, Wiley, Vol. 89, No. 1 ( 2013-01), p. 234-246
    Abstract: The assessment model for ultraviolet radiation and risk “ AMOUR ” is applied to output from two chemistry‐climate models ( CCMs ). Results from the UK Chemistry and Aerosols CCM are used to quantify the worldwide skin cancer risk avoided by the Montreal Protocol and its amendments: by the year 2030, two million cases of skin cancer have been prevented yearly, which is 14% fewer skin cancer cases per year. In the “World Avoided,” excess skin cancer incidence will continue to grow dramatically after 2030. Results from the CCM E39C‐A are used to estimate skin cancer risk that had already been inevitably committed once ozone depletion was recognized: excess incidence will peak mid 21st century and then recover or even super‐recover at the end of the century. When compared with a “No Depletion” scenario, with ozone undepleted and cloud characteristics as in the 1960s throughout, excess incidence (extra yearly cases skin cancer per million people) of the “Full Compliance with Montreal Protocol” scenario is in the ranges: N ew Z ealand: 100–150, C ongo: −10–0, Patagonia: 20–50, Western E urope: 30–40, C hina: 90–120, South‐West USA : 80–110, Mediterranean: 90–100 and North‐East A ustralia: 170–200. This is up to 4% of total local incidence in the Full Compliance scenario in the peak year.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0031-8655 , 1751-1097
    URL: Issue
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1111/php.2012.89.issue-1
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1751-1097.2012.01223.x
    RVK:
    WA 15000
    Language: English
    Publisher: Wiley
    Publication Date: 2013
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  • 12
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    Attribution of Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) ozone radiative flux bias from satellites
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2020
    In:  Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Vol. 20, No. 1 ( 2020-01-08), p. 281-301
    Details
    In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 20, No. 1 ( 2020-01-08), p. 281-301
    Abstract: Abstract. The top-of-atmosphere (TOA) outgoing longwave flux over the 9.6 µm ozone band is a fundamental quantity for understanding chemistry–climate coupling. However, observed TOA fluxes are hard to estimate as they exhibit considerable variability in space and time that depend on the distributions of clouds, ozone (O3), water vapor (H2O), air temperature (Ta), and surface temperature (Ts). Benchmarking present-day fluxes and quantifying the relative influence of their drivers is the first step for estimating climate feedbacks from ozone radiative forcing and predicting radiative forcing evolution. To that end, we constructed observational instantaneous radiative kernels (IRKs) under clear-sky conditions, representing the sensitivities of the TOA flux in the 9.6 µm ozone band to the vertical distribution of geophysical variables, including O3, H2O, Ta, and Ts based upon the Aura Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) measurements. Applying these kernels to present-day simulations from the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) project as compared to a 2006 reanalysis assimilating satellite observations, we show that the models have large differences in TOA flux, attributable to different geophysical variables. In particular, model simulations continue to diverge from observations in the tropics, as reported in previous studies of the Atmospheric Chemistry Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) simulations. The principal culprits are tropical middle and upper tropospheric ozone followed by tropical lower tropospheric H2O. Five models out of the eight studied here have TOA flux biases exceeding 100 mW m−2 attributable to tropospheric ozone bias. Another set of five models have flux biases over 50 mW m−2 due to H2O. On the other hand, Ta radiative bias is negligible in all models (no more than 30 mW m−2). We found that the atmospheric component (AM3) of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) general circulation model and Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM) have the lowest TOA flux biases globally but are a result of cancellation of opposite biases due to different processes. Overall, the multi-model ensemble mean bias is -133±98 mW m−2, indicating that they are too atmospherically opaque due to trapping too much radiation in the atmosphere by overestimated tropical tropospheric O3 and H2O. Having too much O3 and H2O in the troposphere would have different impacts on the sensitivity of TOA flux to O3 and these competing effects add more uncertainties on the ozone radiative forcing. We find that the inter-model TOA outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) difference is well anti-correlated with their ozone band flux bias. This suggests that there is significant radiative compensation in the calculation of model outgoing longwave radiation.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1680-7324
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/acp-20-281-2020
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2020
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  • 13
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    MLR data to "An Upper-branch Brewer Dobson Circulation index for attribution of stratospheric variability and improved ozone and temperature trend analysis"
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2016
    In:  Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Vol. 16, No. 24 ( 2016-12-15), p. 15485-15500
    Details
    In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 16, No. 24 ( 2016-12-15), p. 15485-15500
    Abstract: Abstract. We find that wintertime temperature anomalies near 4 hPa and 50° N/S are related, through dynamics, to anomalies in ozone and temperature, particularly in the tropical stratosphere but also throughout the upper stratosphere and mesosphere. These mid-latitude anomalies occur on timescales of up to a month, and are related to changes in wave forcing. A change in the meridional Brewer–Dobson circulation extends from the middle stratosphere into the mesosphere and forms a temperature-change quadrupole from Equator to pole. We develop a dynamical index based on detrended, deseasonalised mid-latitude temperature. When employed in multiple linear regression, this index can account for up to 60 % of the total variability of temperature, peaking at  ∼  5 hPa and dropping to 0 at  ∼  50 and  ∼  0.5 hPa, respectively, and increasing again into the mesosphere. Ozone similarly sees up to an additional 50 % of variability accounted for, with a slightly higher maximum and strong altitude dependence, with zero improvement found at 10 hPa. Further, the uncertainty on all equatorial multiple-linear regression coefficients can be reduced by up to 35 and 20 % in temperature and ozone, respectively, and so this index is an important tool for quantifying current and future ozone recovery.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1680-7324
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/acp-16-15485-2016
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2016
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  • 14
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    No robust evidence of future changes in major stratospheric sudden warmings: a multi-model assessment from CCMI
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2018
    In:  Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Vol. 18, No. 15 ( 2018-08-13), p. 11277-11287
    Details
    In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 18, No. 15 ( 2018-08-13), p. 11277-11287
    Abstract: Abstract. Major mid-winter stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) are the largest instance of wintertime variability in the Arctic stratosphere. Because SSWs are able to cause significant surface weather anomalies on intra-seasonal timescales, several previous studies have focused on their potential future change, as might be induced by anthropogenic forcings. However, a wide range of results have been reported, from a future increase in the frequency of SSWs to an actual decrease. Several factors might explain these contradictory results, notably the use of different metrics for the identification of SSWs and the impact of large climatological biases in single-model studies. To bring some clarity, we here revisit the question of future SSW changes, using an identical set of metrics applied consistently across 12 different models participating in the Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative. Our analysis reveals that no statistically significant change in the frequency of SSWs will occur over the 21st century, irrespective of the metric used for the identification of the event. Changes in other SSW characteristics – such as their duration, deceleration of the polar night jet, and the tropospheric forcing – are also assessed: again, we find no evidence of future changes over the 21st century.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1680-7324
    URL: Article
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/acp-18-11277-2018
    DOI: 10.5194/acp-18-11277-2018-supplement
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2018
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  • 15
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    Exploring accumulation-mode H〈sub〉2〈/sub〉SO〈sub〉4〈/sub〉 versus SO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 stratospheric sulfate geoengineering in a sectional aerosol–chemistry–climate model
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2019
    In:  Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Vol. 19, No. 7 ( 2019-04-11), p. 4877-4897
    Details
    In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 19, No. 7 ( 2019-04-11), p. 4877-4897
    Abstract: Abstract. Stratospheric sulfate geoengineering (SSG) could contribute to avoiding some of the adverse impacts of climate change. We used the SOCOL-AER global aerosol–chemistry–climate model to investigate 21 different SSG scenarios, each with 1.83 Mt S yr−1 injected either in the form of accumulation-mode H2SO4 droplets (AM H2SO4), gas-phase SO2 or as combinations of both. For most scenarios, the sulfur was continuously emitted at an altitude of 50 hPa (≈20 km) in the tropics and subtropics. We assumed emissions to be zonally and latitudinally symmetric around the Equator. The spread of emissions ranged from 3.75∘ S–3.75∘ N to 30∘ S–30∘ N. In the SO2 emission scenarios, continuous production of tiny nucleation-mode particles results in increased coagulation, which together with gaseous H2SO4 condensation, produces coarse-mode particles. These large particles are less effective for backscattering solar radiation and have a shorter stratospheric residence time than AM H2SO4 particles. On average, the stratospheric aerosol burden and corresponding all-sky shortwave radiative forcing for the AM H2SO4 scenarios are about 37 % larger than for the SO2 scenarios. The simulated stratospheric aerosol burdens show a weak dependence on the latitudinal spread of emissions. Emitting at 30∘ N–30∘ S instead of 10∘ N–10∘ S only decreases stratospheric burdens by about 10 %. This is because a decrease in coagulation and the resulting smaller particle size is roughly balanced by faster removal through stratosphere-to-troposphere transport via tropopause folds. Increasing the injection altitude is also ineffective, although it generates a larger stratospheric burden, because enhanced condensation and/or coagulation leads to larger particles, which are less effective scatterers. In the case of gaseous SO2 emissions, limiting the sulfur injections spatially and temporally in the form of point and pulsed emissions reduces the total global annual nucleation, leading to less coagulation and thus smaller particles with increased stratospheric residence times. Pulse or point emissions of AM H2SO4 have the opposite effect: they decrease the stratospheric aerosol burden by increasing coagulation and only slightly decrease clear-sky radiative forcing. This study shows that direct emission of AM H2SO4 results in higher radiative forcing for the same sulfur equivalent mass injection strength than SO2 emissions, and that the sensitivity to different injection strategies varies for different forms of injected sulfur.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1680-7324
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/acp-19-4877-2019
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2019
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  • 16
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    Inconsistencies between chemistry–climate models and observed lower stratospheric ozone trends since 1998
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2020
    In:  Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Vol. 20, No. 16 ( 2020-08-20), p. 9737-9752
    Details
    In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 20, No. 16 ( 2020-08-20), p. 9737-9752
    Abstract: Abstract. The stratospheric ozone layer shields surface life from harmful ultraviolet radiation. Following the Montreal Protocol ban on long-lived ozone-depleting substances (ODSs), rapid depletion of total column ozone (TCO) ceased in the late 1990s, and ozone above 32 km is now clearly recovering. However, there is still no confirmation of TCO recovery, and evidence has emerged that ongoing quasi-global (60∘ S–60∘ N) lower stratospheric ozone decreases may be responsible, dominated by low latitudes (30∘ S–30∘ N). Chemistry–climate models (CCMs) used to project future changes predict that lower stratospheric ozone will decrease in the tropics by 2100 but not at mid-latitudes (30–60∘). Here, we show that CCMs display an ozone decline similar to that observed in the tropics over 1998–2016, likely driven by an increase in tropical upwelling. On the other hand, mid-latitude lower stratospheric ozone is observed to decrease, while CCMs that specify real-world historical meteorological fields instead show an increase up to present day. However, these cannot be used to simulate future changes; we demonstrate here that free-running CCMs used for projections also show increases. Despite opposing lower stratospheric ozone changes, which should induce opposite temperature trends, CCMs and observed temperature trends agree; we demonstrate that opposing model–observation stratospheric water vapour (SWV) trends, and their associated radiative effects, explain why temperature changes agree in spite of opposing ozone trends. We provide new evidence that the observed mid-latitude trends can be explained by enhanced mixing between the tropics and extratropics. We further show that the temperature trends are consistent with the observed mid-latitude ozone decrease. Together, our results suggest that large-scale circulation changes expected in the future from increased greenhouse gases (GHGs) may now already be underway but that most CCMs do not simulate mid-latitude ozone layer changes well. However, it is important to emphasise that the periods considered here are short, and internal variability that is both intrinsic to each CCM and different to observed historical variability is not well-characterised and can influence trend estimates. Nevertheless, the reason CCMs do not exhibit the observed changes needs to be identified to allow models to be improved in order to build confidence in future projections of the ozone layer.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1680-7324
    URL: Article
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/acp-20-9737-2020
    DOI: 10.5194/acp-20-9737-2020-supplement
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2020
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  • 17
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    Model physics and chemistry causing intermodel disagreement within the VolMIP-Tambora Interactive Stratospheric Aerosol ensemble
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2021
    In:  Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Vol. 21, No. 5 ( 2021-03-04), p. 3317-3343
    Details
    In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 21, No. 5 ( 2021-03-04), p. 3317-3343
    Abstract: Abstract. As part of the Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP), several climate modeling centers performed a coordinated pre-study experiment with interactive stratospheric aerosol models simulating the volcanic aerosol cloud from an eruption resembling the 1815 Mt. Tambora eruption (VolMIP-Tambora ISA ensemble). The pre-study provided the ancillary ability to assess intermodel diversity in the radiative forcing for a large stratospheric-injecting equatorial eruption when the volcanic aerosol cloud is simulated interactively. An initial analysis of the VolMIP-Tambora ISA ensemble showed large disparities between models in the stratospheric global mean aerosol optical depth (AOD). In this study, we now show that stratospheric global mean AOD differences among the participating models are primarily due to differences in aerosol size, which we track here by effective radius. We identify specific physical and chemical processes that are missing in some models and/or parameterized differently between models, which are together causing the differences in effective radius. In particular, our analysis indicates that interactively tracking hydroxyl radical (OH) chemistry following a large volcanic injection of sulfur dioxide (SO2) is an important factor in allowing for the timescale for sulfate formation to be properly simulated. In addition, depending on the timescale of sulfate formation, there can be a large difference in effective radius and subsequently AOD that results from whether the SO2 is injected in a single model grid cell near the location of the volcanic eruption, or whether it is injected as a longitudinally averaged band around the Earth.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1680-7324
    URL: Article
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/acp-21-3317-2021
    DOI: 10.5194/acp-21-3317-2021-supplement
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2021
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  • 18
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    Multi-model comparison of the volcanic sulfate deposition from the 1815 eruption of Mt. Tambora
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2018
    In:  Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Vol. 18, No. 3 ( 2018-02-15), p. 2307-2328
    Details
    In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 18, No. 3 ( 2018-02-15), p. 2307-2328
    Abstract: Abstract. The eruption of Mt. Tambora in 1815 was the largest volcanic eruption of the past 500 years. The eruption had significant climatic impacts, leading to the 1816 year without a summer, and remains a valuable event from which to understand the climatic effects of large stratospheric volcanic sulfur dioxide injections. The eruption also resulted in one of the strongest and most easily identifiable volcanic sulfate signals in polar ice cores, which are widely used to reconstruct the timing and atmospheric sulfate loading of past eruptions. As part of the Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP), five state-of-the-art global aerosol models simulated this eruption. We analyse both simulated background (no Tambora) and volcanic (with Tambora) sulfate deposition to polar regions and compare to ice core records. The models simulate overall similar patterns of background sulfate deposition, although there are differences in regional details and magnitude. However, the volcanic sulfate deposition varies considerably between the models with differences in timing, spatial pattern and magnitude. Mean simulated deposited sulfate on Antarctica ranges from 19 to 264 kg km−2 and on Greenland from 31 to 194 kg km−2, as compared to the mean ice-core-derived estimates of roughly 50 kg km−2 for both Greenland and Antarctica. The ratio of the hemispheric atmospheric sulfate aerosol burden after the eruption to the average ice sheet deposited sulfate varies between models by up to a factor of 15. Sources of this inter-model variability include differences in both the formation and the transport of sulfate aerosol. Our results suggest that deriving relationships between sulfate deposited on ice sheets and atmospheric sulfate burdens from model simulations may be associated with greater uncertainties than previously thought.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1680-7324
    URL: Article
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/acp-18-2307-2018
    DOI: 10.5194/acp-18-2307-2018-supplement
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2018
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  • 19
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    The influence of mixing on the stratospheric age of air changes in the 21st century
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2019
    In:  Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Vol. 19, No. 2 ( 2019-01-24), p. 921-940
    Details
    In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 19, No. 2 ( 2019-01-24), p. 921-940
    Abstract: Abstract. Climate models consistently predict an acceleration of the Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) due to climate change in the 21st century. However, the strength of this acceleration varies considerably among individual models, which constitutes a notable source of uncertainty for future climate projections. To shed more light upon the magnitude of this uncertainty and on its causes, we analyse the stratospheric mean age of air (AoA) of 10 climate projection simulations from the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative phase 1 (CCMI-I), covering the period between 1960 and 2100. In agreement with previous multi-model studies, we find a large model spread in the magnitude of the AoA trend over the simulation period. Differences between future and past AoA are found to be predominantly due to differences in mixing (reduced aging by mixing and recirculation) rather than differences in residual mean transport. We furthermore analyse the mixing efficiency, a measure of the relative strength of mixing for given residual mean transport, which was previously hypothesised to be a model constant. Here, the mixing efficiency is found to vary not only across models, but also over time in all models. Changes in mixing efficiency are shown to be closely related to changes in AoA and quantified to roughly contribute 10 % to the long-term AoA decrease over the 21st century. Additionally, mixing efficiency variations are shown to considerably enhance model spread in AoA changes. To understand these mixing efficiency variations, we also present a consistent dynamical framework based on diffusive closure, which highlights the role of basic state potential vorticity gradients in controlling mixing efficiency and therefore aging by mixing.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1680-7324
    URL: Article
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/acp-19-921-2019
    DOI: 10.5194/acp-19-921-2019-supplement
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2019
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  • 20
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    The response of mesospheric H〈sub〉2〈/sub〉O and CO to solar irradiance variability in models and observations
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2021
    In:  Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Vol. 21, No. 1 ( 2021-01-11), p. 201-216
    Details
    In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 21, No. 1 ( 2021-01-11), p. 201-216
    Abstract: Abstract. Water vapor (H2O) is the source of reactive hydrogen radicals in the middle atmosphere, whereas carbon monoxide (CO), being formed by CO2 photolysis, is suitable as a dynamical tracer. In the mesosphere, both H2O and CO are sensitive to solar irradiance (SI) variability because of their destruction/production by solar radiation. This enables us to analyze the solar signal in both models and observed data. Here, we evaluate the mesospheric H2O and CO response to solar irradiance variability using the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI-1) simulations and satellite observations. We analyzed the results of four CCMI models (CMAM, EMAC-L90MA, SOCOLv3, and CESM1-WACCM 3.5) operated in CCMI reference simulation REF-C1SD in specified dynamics mode, covering the period from 1984–2017. Multiple linear regression analyses show a pronounced and statistically robust response of H2O and CO to solar irradiance variability and to the annual and semiannual cycles. For periods with available satellite data, we compared the simulated solar signal against satellite observations, namely the GOZCARDS composite for 1992–2017 for H2O and Aura/MLS measurements for 2005–2017 for CO. The model results generally agree with observations and reproduce an expected negative and positive correlation for H2O and CO, respectively, with solar irradiance. However, the magnitude of the response and patterns of the solar signal varies among the considered models, indicating differences in the applied chemical reaction and dynamical schemes, including the representation of photolyzes. We suggest that there is no dominating thermospheric influence of solar irradiance in CO, as reported in previous studies, because the response to solar variability is comparable with observations in both low-top and high-top models. We stress the importance of this work for improving our understanding of the current ability and limitations of state-of-the-art models to simulate a solar signal in the chemistry and dynamics of the middle atmosphere.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1680-7324
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/acp-21-201-2021
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2021
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