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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    American Geophysical Union (AGU) ; 2023
    In:  Earth and Space Science Vol. 10, No. 7 ( 2023-07)
    In: Earth and Space Science, American Geophysical Union (AGU), Vol. 10, No. 7 ( 2023-07)
    Abstract: The proposed Climate Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) lower solar activity scenario is investigated with an Earth System Model The analysis shows no pronounced impact of the CMIP6 lower solar activity on future climate change, as the change in forcing is very small The impact on the ozone layer is also very small
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2333-5084 , 2333-5084
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2023
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2807271-6
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  • 2
    In: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, American Geophysical Union (AGU), Vol. 127, No. 20 ( 2022-10-27)
    Abstract: Coupling in ozone chemistry causes an increase in persistence of low temperature anomalies over both poles In the Antarctic, coupling in chemistry amplifies pre‐existing stratospheric cold biases These effects can be masked by other dynamical differences present in some models
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2169-897X , 2169-8996
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 710256-2
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2016800-7
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2969341-X
    SSG: 16,13
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  • 3
    In: Frontiers in Earth Science, Frontiers Media SA, Vol. 11 ( 2023-9-15)
    Abstract: Photolysis of molecular oxygen (O 2 ) sustains the stratospheric ozone layer and is thereby protecting living organisms on Earth by absorbing harmful ultraviolet radiation. In the past, atmospheric O 2 levels were not constant, and their variations are thought to be responsible for the extinction of some species due to the thinning of the ozone layer. Over the Phanerozoic Eon (last ∼500 Mio years), the O 2 volume mixing ratio ranged between 10% and 35% depending on the level of photosynthetic activity of plants and oceans. Previous estimates, mostly performed by simplified 1-D models, showed different ozone (O 3 ) responses to atmospheric O 2 changes within this range, such as monotonically positive or negative correlations, or displaying a maximum in the O 3 column around a certain O 2 level. Here, we assess the ozone layer sensitivity to atmospheric O 2 varying between 5% and 40% with a state-of-the-art 3-D chemistry-climate model (CCM). Our findings show that the O 3 layer thickness maximizes around the current mixing ratio of O 2 , 21% ± 5%, while lower or higher levels of O 2 result globally in a reduction of total column O 3 . At low latitudes, the total column O 3 is less sensitive to O 2 variations, because of the “self-healing” effect, namely, a vertical dipole in the tropical ozone response. Mid- and high-latitude O 3 columns that are largely affected by transport of O 3 from the tropics, however, are much more sensitive to O 2 with changes up to 20 DU even for small (±5%) O 2 perturbations. We show that these variations are largely driven by the radiative impact of O 3 on stratospheric temperatures and on the strength of the Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC), indicating chemistry-radiation-transport feedback. High O 2 cases result in an acceleration of the BDC and vice versa , which always works in favor of the negative part of the O 3 anomaly dipole in the tropics being more effectively transported to the mid- and high-latitudes than the positive one. Although there are other factors strongly influencing O 3 /O 2 relationship on the Phanerozoic Eon timescales that have not been considered here, our results and the presented mechanism bring useful insights for other studies focusing on the long-term O 3 /O 2 relationship.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2296-6463
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
    Publication Date: 2023
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2741235-0
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  • 4
    In: Frontiers in Earth Science, Frontiers Media SA, Vol. 9 ( 2021-6-17)
    Abstract: The study investigates the representativeness of the total column ozone (TCO) measurements from the ground-based instruments located at the Arosa/Davos stations in Switzerland to analyze the global ozone layer behavior in the past and future. The statistical analysis of the satellite and model data showed a high correlation of the ground-based TCO data with the near-global and northern hemisphere annual mean TCO for the 1980–2018 period. Addition of the Arosa/Davos TCO data as a proxy to the set of standard explanatory variables for multiple linear regression analysis allows estimating the TCO behavior from 1926 up to the present day. We demonstrate that the real-time measurements and high homogeneity level of the Arosa/Davos TCO time series are also beneficial for quick estimates of the future ozone layer recovery.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2296-6463
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: Frontiers Media SA
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2741235-0
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  • 5
    In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 17, No. 5 ( 2017-03-14), p. 3573-3604
    Abstract: Abstract. We compare simulations from three high-top (with upper lid above 120 km) and five medium-top (with upper lid around 80 km) atmospheric models with observations of odd nitrogen (NOx  =  NO + NO2), temperature, and carbon monoxide from seven satellite instruments (ACE-FTS on SciSat, GOMOS, MIPAS, and SCIAMACHY on Envisat, MLS on Aura, SABER on TIMED, and SMR on Odin) during the Northern Hemisphere (NH) polar winter 2008/2009. The models included in the comparison are the 3-D chemistry transport model 3dCTM, the ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model, FinROSE, the Hamburg Model of the Neutral and Ionized Atmosphere (HAMMONIA), the Karlsruhe Simulation Model of the Middle Atmosphere (KASIMA), the modelling tools for SOlar Climate Ozone Links studies (SOCOL and CAO-SOCOL), and the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM4). The comparison focuses on the energetic particle precipitation (EPP) indirect effect, that is, the polar winter descent of NOx largely produced by EPP in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere. A particular emphasis is given to the impact of the sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in January 2009 and the subsequent elevated stratopause (ES) event associated with enhanced descent of mesospheric air. The chemistry climate model simulations have been nudged toward reanalysis data in the troposphere and stratosphere while being unconstrained above. An odd nitrogen upper boundary condition obtained from MIPAS observations has further been applied to medium-top models. Most models provide a good representation of the mesospheric tracer descent in general, and the EPP indirect effect in particular, during the unperturbed (pre-SSW) period of the NH winter 2008/2009. The observed NOx descent into the lower mesosphere and stratosphere is generally reproduced within 20 %. Larger discrepancies of a few model simulations could be traced back either to the impact of the models' gravity wave drag scheme on the polar wintertime meridional circulation or to a combination of prescribed NOx mixing ratio at the uppermost model layer and low vertical resolution. In March–April, after the ES event, however, modelled mesospheric and stratospheric NOx distributions deviate significantly from the observations. The too-fast and early downward propagation of the NOx tongue, encountered in most simulations, coincides with a temperature high bias in the lower mesosphere (0.2–0.05 hPa), likely caused by an overestimation of descent velocities. In contrast, upper-mesospheric temperatures (at 0.05–0.001 hPa) are generally underestimated by the high-top models after the onset of the ES event, being indicative for too-slow descent and hence too-low NOx fluxes. As a consequence, the magnitude of the simulated NOx tongue is generally underestimated by these models. Descending NOx amounts simulated with medium-top models are on average closer to the observations but show a large spread of up to several hundred percent. This is primarily attributed to the different vertical model domains in which the NOx upper boundary condition is applied. In general, the intercomparison demonstrates the ability of state-of-the-art atmospheric models to reproduce the EPP indirect effect in dynamically and geomagnetically quiescent NH winter conditions. The encountered differences between observed and simulated NOx, CO, and temperature distributions during the perturbed phase of the 2009 NH winter, however, emphasize the need for model improvements in the dynamical representation of elevated stratopause events in order to allow for a better description of the EPP indirect effect under these particular conditions.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1680-7324
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2017
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2092549-9
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2069847-1
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  • 6
    In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 23, No. 2 ( 2023-01-19), p. 921-948
    Abstract: Abstract. A previous model intercomparison of the Tambora aerosol cloud has highlighted substantial differences among simulated volcanic aerosol properties in the pre-industrial stratosphere and has led to questions about the applicability of global aerosol models for large-magnitude explosive eruptions prior to the observational period. Here, we compare the evolution of the stratospheric aerosol cloud following the well-observed June 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption simulated with six interactive stratospheric aerosol microphysics models to a range of observational data sets. Our primary focus is on the uncertainties regarding initial SO2 emission following the Pinatubo eruption, as prescribed in the Historical Eruptions SO2 Emission Assessment experiments (HErSEA), in the framework of the Interactive Stratospheric Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project (ISA-MIP). Six global models with interactive aerosol microphysics took part in this study: ECHAM6-SALSA, EMAC, ECHAM5-HAM, SOCOL-AERv2, ULAQ-CCM, and UM-UKCA. Model simulations are performed by varying the SO2 injection amount (ranging between 5 and 10 Tg S) and the altitude of injection (between 18–25 km). The comparisons show that all models consistently demonstrate faster reduction from the peak in sulfate mass burden in the tropical stratosphere. Most models also show a stronger transport towards the extratropics in the Northern Hemisphere, at the expense of the observed tropical confinement, suggesting a much weaker subtropical barrier in all the models, which results in a shorter e-folding time compared to the observations. Furthermore, simulations in which more than 5 Tg S in the form of SO2 is injected show an initial overestimation of the sulfate burden in the tropics and, in some models, in the Northern Hemisphere and a large surface area density a few months after the eruption compared to the values measured in the tropics and the in situ measurements over Laramie. This draws attention to the importance of including processes such as the ash injection for the removal of the initial SO2 and aerosol lofting through local heating.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1680-7324
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2023
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2092549-9
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2069847-1
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  • 7
    In: Geoscientific Model Development, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 11, No. 7 ( 2018-07-06), p. 2633-2647
    Abstract: Abstract. We evaluate how the coupled aerosol–chemistry–climate model SOCOL-AERv1.0 represents the influence of the 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo on stratospheric aerosol properties and atmospheric state. The aerosol module is coupled to the radiative and chemical modules and includes comprehensive sulfur chemistry and microphysics, in which the particle size distribution is represented by 40 size bins with radii spanning from 0.39 nm to 3.2 µm. SOCOL-AER simulations are compared with satellite and in situ measurements of aerosol parameters, temperature reanalyses, and ozone observations. In addition to the reference model configuration, we performed series of sensitivity experiments looking at different processes affecting the aerosol layer. An accurate sedimentation scheme is found to be essential to prevent particles from diffusing too rapidly to high and low altitudes. The aerosol radiative feedback and the use of a nudged quasi-biennial oscillation help to keep aerosol in the tropics and significantly affect the evolution of the stratospheric aerosol burden, which improves the agreement with observed aerosol mass distributions. The inclusion of van der Waals forces in the particle coagulation scheme suggests improvements in particle effective radius, although other parameters (such as aerosol longevity) deteriorate. Modification of the Pinatubo sulfur emission rate also improves some aerosol parameters, while it worsens others compared to observations. Observations themselves are highly uncertain and render it difficult to conclusively judge the necessity of further model reconfiguration. The model revealed problems in reproducing aerosol sizes above 25 km and also in capturing certain features of the ozone response. Besides this, our results show that SOCOL-AER is capable of predicting the most important global-scale atmospheric effects following volcanic eruptions, which is also a prerequisite for an improved understanding of solar geoengineering effects from sulfur injections to the stratosphere.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1991-9603
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2018
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2456725-5
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  • 8
    In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 22, No. 23 ( 2022-12-05), p. 15333-15350
    Abstract: Abstract. There is evidence that the ozone layer has begun to recover owing to the ban on the production of halogenated ozone-depleting substances (hODS) accomplished by the Montreal Protocol and its amendments and adjustments (MPA). However, recent studies, while reporting an increase in tropospheric ozone from the anthropogenic NOx and CH4 and confirming the ozone recovery in the upper stratosphere from the effects of hODS, also indicate a continuing decline in the lower tropical and mid-latitudinal stratospheric ozone. While these are indications derived from observations, they are not reproduced by current global chemistry–climate models (CCMs), which show positive or near-zero trends for ozone in the lower stratosphere. This makes it difficult to robustly establish ozone evolution and has sparked debate about the ability of contemporary CCMs to simulate future ozone trends. We applied the new Earth system model (ESM) SOCOLv4 (SOlar Climate Ozone Links, version 4) to calculate long-term ozone trends between 1985–2018 and compare them with trends derived from the BAyeSian Integrated and Consolidated (BASIC) ozone composite and MERRA-2, ERA-5, and MSRv2 reanalyses. We designed the model experiment with a six-member ensemble to account for the uncertainty of the natural variability. The trend analysis is performed separately for the ozone depletion (1985–1997) and ozone recovery (1998–2018) phases of the ozone evolution. Within the 1998–2018 period, SOCOLv4 shows statistically significant positive ozone trends in the mesosphere, upper and middle stratosphere, and a steady increase in the tropospheric ozone. The SOCOLv4 results also suggest slightly negative trends in the extra-polar lower stratosphere, yet they barely agree with the BASIC ozone composite in terms of magnitude and statistical significance. However, in some realizations of the SOCOLv4 experiment, the pattern of ozone trends in the lower stratosphere resembles much of what is observed, suggesting that SOCOLv4 may be able to reproduce the observed trends in this region. Thus, the model results reveal marginally significant negative ozone changes in parts of the low-latitude lower stratosphere, which agrees in general with the negative tendencies extracted from the satellite data composite. Despite the slightly smaller significance and magnitude of the simulated ensemble mean, we confirm that modern CCMs such as SOCOLv4 are generally capable of simulating the observed ozone changes, justifying their use to project the future evolution of the ozone layer.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1680-7324
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2092549-9
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2069847-1
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  • 9
    In: Geoscientific Model Development, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 12, No. 9 ( 2019-09-03), p. 3863-3887
    Abstract: Abstract. SOCOL-AERv1 was developed as an aerosol–chemistry–climate model to study the stratospheric sulfur cycle and its influence on climate and the ozone layer. It includes a sectional aerosol model that tracks the sulfate particle size distribution in 40 size bins, between 0.39 nm and 3.2 µm. Sheng et al. (2015) showed that SOCOL-AERv1 successfully matched observable quantities related to stratospheric aerosol. In the meantime, SOCOL-AER has undergone significant improvements and more observational datasets have become available. In producing SOCOL-AERv2 we have implemented several updates to the model: adding interactive deposition schemes, improving the sulfate mass and particle number conservation, and expanding the tropospheric chemistry scheme. We compare the two versions of the model with background stratospheric sulfate aerosol observations, stratospheric aerosol evolution after Pinatubo, and ground-based sulfur deposition networks. SOCOL-AERv2 shows similar levels of agreement as SOCOL-AERv1 with satellite-measured extinctions and in situ optical particle counter (OPC) balloon flights. The volcanically quiescent total stratospheric aerosol burden simulated in SOCOL-AERv2 has increased from 109 Gg of sulfur (S) to 160 Gg S, matching the newly available satellite estimate of 165 Gg S. However, SOCOL-AERv2 simulates too high cross-tropopause transport of tropospheric SO2 and/or sulfate aerosol, leading to an overestimation of lower stratospheric aerosol. Due to the current lack of upper tropospheric SO2 measurements and the neglect of organic aerosol in the model, the lower stratospheric bias of SOCOL-AERv2 was not further improved. Model performance under volcanically perturbed conditions has also undergone some changes, resulting in a slightly shorter volcanic aerosol lifetime after the Pinatubo eruption. With the improved deposition schemes of SOCOL-AERv2, simulated sulfur wet deposition fluxes are within a factor of 2 of measured deposition fluxes at 78 % of the measurement stations globally, an agreement which is on par with previous model intercomparison studies. Because of these improvements, SOCOL-AERv2 will be better suited to studying changes in atmospheric sulfur deposition due to variations in climate and emissions.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1991-9603
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2019
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2456725-5
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  • 10
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2024
    In:  Air Quality, Atmosphere & Health
    In: Air Quality, Atmosphere & Health, Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Abstract: We investigate the performance of two widely used chemistry-transport models (CTMs) with different chemical mechanisms in reproducing the ambient maximum daily 8-h average ozone (MDA8 O $$_{3}$$ 3 ) burden over Central Europe. We explore a base case setup with boundary conditions (BC) for meteorology from the ERA-Interim reanalysis and chemical BC from CAM-Chem as well as effects of alterations in these BC based on global model fields. Our results show that changes in meteorological BC strongly affect the correlation with observations but only marginally affect the model biases, while changes in chemical BC increase model biases while correlation patterns remain largely unchanged. Furthermore, our study highlights that CTM choice (and choice of chemical mechanism) has a similar or even larger impact on MDA8 O $$_{3}$$ 3 levels as the impact of altered BC. In summary, our study calls for a multi-model strategy combining different CTM and BC combinations to explore the bandwidth of MDA8 O $$_{3}$$ 3 distributions and thus uncertainty in hindcasts and future projections, in analogy to climate studies considering ensemble simulations under the same anthropogenic emissions but with slightly different initial conditions.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1873-9318 , 1873-9326
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2024
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2424084-9
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