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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Simulated Tropical Precipitation Assessed across Three Major Phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)
    American Meteorological Society ; 2020
    In:  Monthly Weather Review Vol. 148, No. 9 ( 2020-09-01), p. 3653-3680
    Details
    In: Monthly Weather Review, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 148, No. 9 ( 2020-09-01), p. 3653-3680
    Abstract: The representation of tropical precipitation is evaluated across three generations of models participating in phases 3, 5, and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Compared to state-of-the-art observations, improvements in tropical precipitation in the CMIP6 models are identified for some metrics, but we find no general improvement in tropical precipitation on different temporal and spatial scales. Our results indicate overall little changes across the CMIP phases for the summer monsoons, the double-ITCZ bias, and the diurnal cycle of tropical precipitation. We find a reduced amount of drizzle events in CMIP6, but tropical precipitation occurs still too frequently. Continuous improvements across the CMIP phases are identified for the number of consecutive dry days, for the representation of modes of variability, namely, the Madden–Julian oscillation and El Niño–Southern Oscillation, and for the trends in dry months in the twentieth century. The observed positive trend in extreme wet months is, however, not captured by any of the CMIP phases, which simulate negative trends for extremely wet months in the twentieth century. The regional biases are larger than a climate change signal one hopes to use the models to identify. Given the pace of climate change as compared to the pace of model improvements to simulate tropical precipitation, we question the past strategy of the development of the present class of global climate models as the mainstay of the scientific response to climate change. We suggest the exploration of alternative approaches such as high-resolution storm-resolving models that can offer better prospects to inform us about how tropical precipitation might change with anthropogenic warming.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0027-0644 , 1520-0493
    URL: Article
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-19-0404.1
    DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-19-0404.s1
    RVK:
    RA 1000
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2020
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    SSG: 14
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    A one and half year interactive MA/ECHAM4 simulation of Mount Pinatubo Aerosol
    American Geophysical Union (AGU) ; 1999
    In:  Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Vol. 104, No. D8 ( 1999-04-27), p. 9337-9359
    Details
    In: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, American Geophysical Union (AGU), Vol. 104, No. D8 ( 1999-04-27), p. 9337-9359
    Abstract: The Mount Pinatubo volcanic eruption in June 1991 had significant impact on stratospheric and tropospheric climate and circulation. Enhanced radiative heating caused by the aerosol absorption of solar and terrestrial radiation changed stratospheric temperature and circulation. Using the stratospheric mesospheric version of the Hamburg climate model MA/ECHAM4, we performed an interactive Pinatubo simulation with prognostic stratospheric aerosol. Interactive and noninteractive model results for the years 1991 and 1992 are compared with satellite data and in situ measurements. The on‐line calculated heating rates are in good agreement with radiation transfer models indicating maximum heating rates of about 0.3 K/d in October 1991. The dynamic feedback in the MA/ECHAM4 simulation is similar to observations. The model is able to reproduce the strengthening of the polar vortex in winter 1991/1992 and a minor warming in January. The importance of an interactive treatment of the volcanic cloud for the aerosol transport is evidenced by the analysis of effects such as aerosol lifting and meridional transport. In general, the model results agree well with observations from the northern midlatitudes, especially in the first months after the eruption. The MA/ECHAM4 model is successful in reproducing the formation of two distinct maxima in the optical depth but is unable to simulate the persistence of the tropical aerosol reservoir from the end of 1991. Better agreement may be achieved if the influence of the quasi‐biennial oscillation and ozone changes is also taken into account.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0148-0227
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1029/1999JD900088
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 1999
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2033040-6
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 3094104-0
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2130824-X
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2016813-5
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2016810-X
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2403298-0
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    detail.hit.zdb_id: 161667-5
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2969341-X
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    detail.hit.zdb_id: 3094268-8
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 710256-2
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2016804-4
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 3094181-7
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 3094219-6
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 3094167-2
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2220777-6
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 3094197-0
    SSG: 16,13
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Limited temperature response to the very large AD 1258 volcanic eruption
    American Geophysical Union (AGU) ; 2009
    In:  Geophysical Research Letters Vol. 36, No. 21 ( 2009-11-06)
    Details
    In: Geophysical Research Letters, American Geophysical Union (AGU), Vol. 36, No. 21 ( 2009-11-06)
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0094-8276
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1029/2009GL040083
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2009
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021599-X
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 7403-2
    SSG: 16,13
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  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Aerosol size confines climate response to volcanic super-eruptions : AEROSOL SIZE CONFINES VOLCANIC SIGNAL
    American Geophysical Union (AGU) ; 2010
    In:  Geophysical Research Letters Vol. 37, No. 24 ( 2010-12), p. n/a-n/a
    Details
    In: Geophysical Research Letters, American Geophysical Union (AGU), Vol. 37, No. 24 ( 2010-12), p. n/a-n/a
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0094-8276
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1029/2010GL045464
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2010
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    detail.hit.zdb_id: 7403-2
    SSG: 16,13
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  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Disentangling Internal and External Contributions to Atlantic Multidecadal Variability Over the Past Millennium
    American Geophysical Union (AGU) ; 2021
    In:  Geophysical Research Letters Vol. 48, No. 23 ( 2021-12-16)
    Details
    In: Geophysical Research Letters, American Geophysical Union (AGU), Vol. 48, No. 23 ( 2021-12-16)
    Abstract: The internal and external contributions to Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) over the past millennium can be separated by a pattern‐based calculation of AMV The internal AMV has a robust tripole pattern and dominates the relationship with meridional overturning circulation The North Atlantic response to post‐eruption global cooling has a damped behavior and is identified as a more uniform spatial pattern
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0094-8276 , 1944-8007
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1029/2021GL095990
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2021
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    detail.hit.zdb_id: 7403-2
    SSG: 16,13
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  • 6
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Clarifying the Relative Role of Forcing Uncertainties and Initial‐Condition Unknowns in Spreading the Climate Response to Volcanic Eruptions
    American Geophysical Union (AGU) ; 2019
    In:  Geophysical Research Letters Vol. 46, No. 3 ( 2019-02-16), p. 1602-1611
    Details
    In: Geophysical Research Letters, American Geophysical Union (AGU), Vol. 46, No. 3 ( 2019-02-16), p. 1602-1611
    Abstract: The 1815 Tambora eruption is used to demonstrate how initial conditions affect the simulation of posteruption climate anomalies Forcing uncertainties can overwhelm initial‐condition spread in boreal summer, while the effect of initial conditions predominate in winter Current initial‐condition uncertainties hamper inferences on magnitude of the Tambora eruption in relation to the “year without summer”
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0094-8276 , 1944-8007
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1029/2018GL081018
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2019
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    detail.hit.zdb_id: 7403-2
    SSG: 16,13
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  • 7
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Toward predicting volcanically-forced decadal climate variability
    Past Global Changes (PAGES) ; 2017
    In:  Past Global Changes Magazine Vol. 25, No. 1 ( 2017-7), p. 25-31
    Details
    In: Past Global Changes Magazine, Past Global Changes (PAGES), Vol. 25, No. 1 ( 2017-7), p. 25-31
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2411-605X , 2411-9180
    URL: Issue
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.22498/pages.25.1
    DOI: 10.22498/pages.25.1.25
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: Past Global Changes (PAGES)
    Publication Date: 2017
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2779253-5
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  • 8
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Easy Volcanic Aerosol (EVA v1.0): an idealized forcing generator for climate simulations
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2016
    In:  Geoscientific Model Development Vol. 9, No. 11 ( 2016-11-11), p. 4049-4070
    Details
    In: Geoscientific Model Development, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 9, No. 11 ( 2016-11-11), p. 4049-4070
    Abstract: Abstract. Stratospheric sulfate aerosols from volcanic eruptions have a significant impact on the Earth's climate. To include the effects of volcanic eruptions in climate model simulations, the Easy Volcanic Aerosol (EVA) forcing generator provides stratospheric aerosol optical properties as a function of time, latitude, height, and wavelength for a given input list of volcanic eruption attributes. EVA is based on a parameterized three-box model of stratospheric transport and simple scaling relationships used to derive mid-visible (550 nm) aerosol optical depth and aerosol effective radius from stratospheric sulfate mass. Precalculated look-up tables computed from Mie theory are used to produce wavelength-dependent aerosol extinction, single scattering albedo, and scattering asymmetry factor values. The structural form of EVA and the tuning of its parameters are chosen to produce best agreement with the satellite-based reconstruction of stratospheric aerosol properties following the 1991 Pinatubo eruption, and with prior millennial-timescale forcing reconstructions, including the 1815 eruption of Tambora. EVA can be used to produce volcanic forcing for climate models which is based on recent observations and physical understanding but internally self-consistent over any timescale of choice. In addition, EVA is constructed so as to allow for easy modification of different aspects of aerosol properties, in order to be used in model experiments to help advance understanding of what aspects of the volcanic aerosol are important for the climate system.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1991-9603
    URL: Article
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/gmd-9-4049-2016
    DOI: 10.5194/gmd-9-4049-2016-supplement
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2016
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  • 9
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Revisiting the Agung 1963 volcanic forcing – impact of one or two eruptions
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2019
    In:  Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Vol. 19, No. 15 ( 2019-08-15), p. 10379-10390
    Details
    In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 19, No. 15 ( 2019-08-15), p. 10379-10390
    Abstract: Abstract. In 1963 a series of eruptions of Mt. Agung, Indonesia, resulted in the third largest eruption of the 20th century and claimed about 1900 lives. Two eruptions of this series injected SO2 into the stratosphere, which can create a long-lasting stratospheric sulfate layer. The estimated mass flux of the first eruption was about twice as large as the mass flux of the second eruption. We followed the estimated emission profiles and assumed for the first eruption on 17 March an injection rate of 4.7 Tg SO2 and 2.3 Tg SO2 for the second eruption on 16 May. The injected sulfur forms a sulfate layer in the stratosphere. The evolution of sulfur is nonlinear and depends on the injection rate and aerosol background conditions. We performed ensembles of two model experiments, one with a single eruption and a second one with two eruptions. The two smaller eruptions result in a lower sulfur burden, smaller aerosol particles, and 0.1 to 0.3 Wm−2 (10 %–20 %) lower radiative forcing in monthly mean global average compared to the individual eruption experiment. The differences are the consequence of slightly stronger meridional transport due to different seasons of the eruptions, lower injection height of the second eruption, and the resulting different aerosol evolution. Overall, the evolution of the volcanic clouds is different in case of two eruptions than with a single eruption only. The differences between the two experiments are significant. We conclude that there is no justification to use one eruption only and both climatic eruptions should be taken into account in future emission datasets.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1680-7324
    URL: Article
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/acp-19-10379-2019
    DOI: 10.5194/acp-19-10379-2019-supplement
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2019
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    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2069847-1
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  • 10
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    The impact of volcanic eruptions of different magnitude on stratospheric water vapor in the tropics
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2021
    In:  Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Vol. 21, No. 8 ( 2021-05-01), p. 6565-6591
    Details
    In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 21, No. 8 ( 2021-05-01), p. 6565-6591
    Abstract: Abstract. Increasing the temperature of the tropical cold-point region through heating by volcanic aerosols results in increases in the entry value of stratospheric water vapor (SWV) and subsequent changes in the atmospheric energy budget. We analyze tropical volcanic eruptions of different strengths with sulfur (S) injections ranging from 2.5 Tg S up to 40 Tg S using EVAens, the 100-member ensemble of the Max Planck Institute – Earth System Model in its low-resolution configuration (MPI-ESM-LR) with artificial volcanic forcing generated by the Easy Volcanic Aerosol (EVA) tool. Significant increases in SWV are found for the mean over all ensemble members from 2.5 Tg S onward ranging between [5, 160] %. However, for single ensemble members, the standard deviation between the control run members (0 Tg S) is larger than SWV increase of single ensemble members for eruption strengths up to 20 Tg S. A historical simulation using observation-based forcing files of the Mt. Pinatubo eruption, which was estimated to have emitted (7.5±2.5) Tg S, returns SWV increases slightly higher than the 10 Tg S EVAens simulations due to differences in the aerosol profile shape. An additional amplification of the tape recorder signal is also apparent, which is not present in the 10 Tg S run. These differences underline that it is not only the eruption volume but also the aerosol layer shape and location with respect to the cold point that have to be considered for post-eruption SWV increases. The additional tropical clear-sky SWV forcing for the different eruption strengths amounts to [0.02, 0.65] W m−2, ranging between [2.5, 4] % of the aerosol radiative forcing in the 10 Tg S scenario. The monthly cold-point temperature increases leading to the SWV increase are not linear with respect to aerosol optical depth (AOD) nor is the corresponding SWV forcing, among others, due to hysteresis effects, seasonal dependencies, aerosol profile heights and feedbacks. However, knowledge of the cold-point temperature increase allows for an estimation of SWV increases of 12 % per Kelvin increase in mean cold-point temperature. For yearly averages, power functions are fitted to the cold-point warming and SWV forcing with increasing AOD.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1680-7324
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/acp-21-6565-2021
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2092549-9
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2069847-1
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