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  • 11
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © The Authors, 2005. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Nature Publishing Group for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Nature 437 (2005): 681-686, doi:10.1038/nature04095.
    Description: The surface ocean is everywhere saturated with respect to calcium carbonate (CaCO3). Yet increasing atmospheric CO2 reduces ocean pH and carbonate ion concentrations [CO32−] and thus the level of saturation. Reduced saturation states are expected to affect marine calcifiers even though it has been estimated that all surface waters will remain saturated for centuries. Here we show, however, that some surface waters will become undersaturated within decades. When atmospheric CO2 reaches 550 ppmv, in year 2050 under the IS92a business-as-usual scenario, Southern Ocean surface waters begin to become undersaturated with respect to aragonite, a metastable form of CaCO3. By 2100 as atmospheric CO2 reaches 788 ppmv, undersaturation extends throughout the entire Southern Ocean (〈 60°S) and into the subarctic Pacific. These changes will threaten high-latitude aragonite secreting organisms including cold-water corals, which provide essential fish habitat, and shelled pteropods, an abundant food source for marine predators.
    Description: All but the climate simulations were made as part of the OCMIP project, which was launched in 1995 by the Global Analysis, Interpretation, and Modeling (GAIM) Task Force of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Program (IGBP) with funding from NASA. OCMIP-2 was supported by the EU GOSAC project and the U.S. JGOFS SMP funded through NASA. The interannual simulation was supported by the EU NOCES project, which is part of OCMIP-3.
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Preprint
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  • 12
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2004. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 31 (2004): L07303, doi:10.1029/2003GL018970.
    Description: New radiocarbon and chlorofluorocarbon-11 data from the World Ocean Circulation Experiment are used to assess a suite of 19 ocean carbon cycle models. We use the distributions and inventories of these tracers as quantitative metrics of model skill and find that only about a quarter of the suite is consistent with the new data-based metrics. This should serve as a warning bell to the larger community that not all is well with current generation of ocean carbon cycle models. At the same time, this highlights the danger in simply using the available models to represent the state-of-the-art modeling without considering the credibility of each model.
    Description: K. Matsumoto was supported by NSF grants OCE-9819144 and OCE0097316.
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 13
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2004. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Global Biogeochemical Cycles 18 (2004): GB3017, doi:10.1029/2003GB002150.
    Description: A suite of standard ocean hydrographic and circulation metrics are applied to the equilibrium physical solutions from 13 global carbon models participating in phase 2 of the Ocean Carbon-cycle Model Intercomparison Project (OCMIP-2). Model-data comparisons are presented for sea surface temperature and salinity, seasonal mixed layer depth, meridional heat and freshwater transport, 3-D hydrographic fields, and meridional overturning. Considerable variation exists among the OCMIP-2 simulations, with some of the solutions falling noticeably outside available observational constraints. For some cases, model-model and model-data differences can be related to variations in surface forcing, subgrid-scale parameterizations, and model architecture. These errors in the physical metrics point to significant problems in the underlying model representations of ocean transport and dynamics, problems that directly affect the OCMIP predicted ocean tracer and carbon cycle variables (e.g., air-sea CO2 flux, chlorofluorocarbon and anthropogenic CO2 uptake, and export production). A substantial fraction of the large model-model ranges in OCMIP-2 biogeochemical fields (±25–40%) represents the propagation of known errors in model physics. Therefore the model-model spread likely overstates the uncertainty in our current understanding of the ocean carbon system, particularly for transport-dominated fields such as the historical uptake of anthropogenic CO2. A full error assessment, however, would need to account for additional sources of uncertainty such as more complex biological-chemical-physical interactions, biases arising from poorly resolved or neglected physical processes, and climate change.
    Description: S. Doney and K. Lindsay acknowledge support from NASA through the U.S. OCMIP program and the U.S. JGOFS Synthesis and Modeling Project (NASA grant W-19,274). The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation. N. Gruber acknowledges support from NASA grant OCEAN- 0250-0231. F. Joos and G.-K. Plattner acknowledge support by the Swiss National Science Foundation and the Swiss Federal Office of Science and Education through the EU-projects GOSAC and MilECLim and enjoyed scientific advice by T. F. Stocker, G. Delaygue, R. Knutti, and O. Marchal. European model contributions were supported by the EU GOSAC project (contract ENV4-CT97-0495). We also acknowledge support from IGBP/ GAIM to maintain the OCMIP project.
    Keywords: Global carbon models ; Ocean carbon systems ; OCMIP-2
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 14
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Workshop held August 19-21, 2014, Woods Hole, MA
    Description: Relative to their surface area, continental margins represent some of the largest carbon fluxes in the global ocean, but sparse and sporadic sampling in space and time makes these systems difficult to characterize and quantify. Recognizing the importance of continental margins to the overall North American carbon budget, terrestrial and marine carbon cycle scientists have been collaborating on a series of synthesis, carbon budgeting, and modeling exercises for coastal regions of North America, which include the Gulf of Mexico, the Laurentian Great Lakes (LGL), and the coastal waters of the Atlantic, Pacific, and Arctic Oceans. The Coastal CARbon Synthesis (CCARS) workshops and research activities have been conducted over the past several years as a partner activity between the Ocean Carbon and Biogeochemistry (OCB) Program and the North American Carbon Program (NACP) to synthesize existing data and improve quantitative assessments of the North American carbon budget.
    Description: The authors of this science plan wish to acknowledge the generous support of NASA (NNX10AU78G) and NSF (OCE-1107285) for all of the CCARS activities, including a kickoff meeting (December 2010), a series of regional workshops (Atlantic coast, Gulf of Mexico, Pacific coast), and the final community workshop (August 2014).
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Working Paper
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  • 15
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2019. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in WHOI Fennel, K., Alin, S., Barbero, L., Evans, W., Bourgeois, T., Cooley, S., Dunne, J., Feely, R. A., Martin Hernandez-Ayon, J., Hu, X., Lohrenz, S., Muller-Karger, F., Najjar, R., Robbins, L., Shadwick, E., Siedlecki, S., Steiner, N., Sutton, A., Turk, D., Vlahos, P., & Wang, Z. A. Carbon cycling in the north american coastal ocean: A synthesis. Biogeosciences, 16(6), (2019):1281-1304, doi:10.5194/bg-16-1281-2019.
    Description: A quantification of carbon fluxes in the coastal ocean and across its boundaries with the atmosphere, land, and the open ocean is important for assessing the current state and projecting future trends in ocean carbon uptake and coastal ocean acidification, but this is currently a missing component of global carbon budgeting. This synthesis reviews recent progress in characterizing these carbon fluxes for the North American coastal ocean. Several observing networks and high-resolution regional models are now available. Recent efforts have focused primarily on quantifying the net air–sea exchange of carbon dioxide (CO2). Some studies have estimated other key fluxes, such as the exchange of organic and inorganic carbon between shelves and the open ocean. Available estimates of air–sea CO2 flux, informed by more than a decade of observations, indicate that the North American Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) acts as a sink of 160±80 Tg C yr−1, although this flux is not well constrained. The Arctic and sub-Arctic, mid-latitude Atlantic, and mid-latitude Pacific portions of the EEZ account for 104, 62, and −3.7 Tg C yr−1, respectively, while making up 51 %, 25 %, and 24 % of the total area, respectively. Combining the net uptake of 160±80 Tg C yr−1 with an estimated carbon input from land of 106±30 Tg C yr−1 minus an estimated burial of 65±55 Tg C yr−1 and an estimated accumulation of dissolved carbon in EEZ waters of 50±25 Tg C yr−1 implies a carbon export of 151±105 Tg C yr−1 to the open ocean. The increasing concentration of inorganic carbon in coastal and open-ocean waters leads to ocean acidification. As a result, conditions favoring the dissolution of calcium carbonate occur regularly in subsurface coastal waters in the Arctic, which are naturally prone to low pH, and the North Pacific, where upwelling of deep, carbon-rich waters has intensified. Expanded monitoring and extension of existing model capabilities are required to provide more reliable coastal carbon budgets, projections of future states of the coastal ocean, and quantification of anthropogenic carbon contributions.
    Description: This paper builds on synthesis activities carried out for the second State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR2). We would like to thank Gyami Shrestha, Nancy Cavallero, Melanie Mayes, Holly Haun, Marjy Friedrichs, Laura Lorenzoni, and Erica Ombres for the guidance and input. We are grateful to Nicolas Gruber and Christophe Rabouille for their constructive and helpful reviews of the paper. It is a contribution to the Marine Biodiversity Observation Network (MBON), the Integrated Marine Biosphere Research (IMBeR) project, the International Ocean Carbon Coordination Project (IOCCP), and the Cooperative Institute of the University of Miami and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (CIMAS) under cooperative agreement NA10OAR4320143. Katja Fennel was funded by the NSERC Discovery program. Steven Lohrenz was funded by NASA grant NNX14AO73G. Ray Najjar was funded by NASA grant NNX14AM37G. Frank Muller-Karger was funded through NASA grant NNX14AP62A. This is Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory contribution number 4837 and Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory contribution number 8284. Simone Alin and Richard A. Feely also thank Libby Jewett and Dwight Gledhill of the NOAA Ocean Acidification Program for their support.
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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