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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2014. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 27 (2014): 8185–8204, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00500.1.
    Description: The East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) and the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) constitute two outstanding surface atmospheric circulation patterns affecting the winter sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the western North Pacific. The present analyses show the relationship between the EAWM and NPO and their impact on the SST are nonstationary and regime-dependent with a sudden change around 1988. These surface circulation patterns are tightly linked to the upper-level Ural and Kamchatka blockings, respectively. During the 1973–87 strong winter monsoon epoch, the EAWM and NPO were significantly correlated to each other, but their correlation practically vanishes during the 1988–2002 weak winter monsoon epoch. This nonstationary relationship is related to the pronounced decadal weakening of the Siberian high system over the Eurasian continent after the 1988 regime shift as well as the concomitant positive NPO-like dipole change and its eastward migration in tropospheric circulation over the North Pacific. There is a tight tropical–extratropical teleconnection in the western North Pacific in the strong monsoon epoch, which disappears in the weak monsoon epoch when there is a significant eastward shift of tropical influence and enhanced storm tracks into the eastern North Pacific. A tentative mechanism of the nonstationary relationship between the EAWM and NPO is proposed, stressing the pivotal role played in the above teleconnection by a decadal shift of the East Asian trough resulting from the abrupt decline of the EAWM since the late 1980s.
    Description: G. Pak has been supported from the Brain Korea 21 Project of SNU, for which we are very grateful to K.-R. Kim, and also from the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries, South Korea (OCCAPA and EAST-I projects). Y.-O. Kwon is supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation Climate and Large-Scale Dynamics program (AGS-1035423) and Department of Energy (DOE) Climate and Environmental Science Division (DESC0007052).
    Description: 2015-05-01
    Keywords: Climate variability ; Interannual variability ; Interdecadal variability ; North Pacific Oscillation
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2017. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 30 (2017): 6757-6769, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0461.1.
    Description: Arctic sea ice area (SIA) during late summer and early fall decreased substantially over the last four decades, and its decline accelerated beginning in the early 2000s. Statistical analyses of observations show that enhanced poleward moisture transport from the North Pacific to the Arctic Ocean contributed to the accelerated SIA decrease during the most recent period. As a consequence, specific humidity in the Arctic Pacific sector significantly increased along with an increase of downward longwave radiation beginning in 2002, which led to a significant acceleration in the decline of SIA in the Arctic Pacific sector. The resulting sea ice loss led to increased evaporation in the Arctic Ocean, resulting in a further increase of the specific humidity in mid-to-late fall, thus acting as a positive feedback to the sea ice loss. The overall set of processes is also found in a long control simulation of a coupled climate model.
    Description: This work was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea Grant NRF-2009-C1AAA001-0093, funded by the Korean government (MEST), to HJL, YHK, and MOK. S-WY is supported by the Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program under Grant KMIPA2015-1042. Y-OK is supported by the U.S. Department of Energy (DE-SC0014433) and National Science Foundation (OCE-1242989). WP acknowledges support from the BMBF project CLIMPRE InterDec (FKZ: 01LP1609B).
    Description: 2018-01-26
    Keywords: Pacific decadal oscillation ; Sea surface temperature ; Humidity ; Ice loss/growth
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 28 (2015): 7659–7677, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0007.1.
    Description: Maximum covariance analysis of a preindustrial control simulation of the NCAR Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4), shows that a barotropic signal in winter broadly resembling a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) follows an intensification of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) by about 7 yr. The delay is due to the cyclonic propagation along the North Atlantic Current (NAC) and the subpolar gyre of a SST warming linked to a northward shift and intensification of the NAC, together with an increasing SST cooling linked to increasing southward advection of subpolar water along the western boundary and a southward shift of the Gulf Stream (GS). These changes result in a meridional SST dipole, which follows the AMOC intensification after 6 or 7 yr. The SST changes were initiated by the strengthening of the western subpolar gyre and by bottom torque at the crossover of the deep branches of the AMOC with the NAC on the western flank of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge and the GS near the Tail of the Grand Banks, respectively. The heat flux damping of the SST dipole shifts the region of maximum atmospheric transient eddy growth southward, leading to a negative NAO-like response. No significant atmospheric response is found to the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO), which is broadly realistic but shifted south and associated with a much weaker meridional SST gradient than the AMOC fingerprint. Nonetheless, the wintertime atmospheric response to the AMOC shows some similarity with the observed response to the AMO, suggesting that the ocean–atmosphere interactions are broadly realistic in CCSM4.
    Description: Support from the NOAA Climate Program Office (NA10OAR4310202 and NA13OAR4310139), NSF EaSM2 (OCE 1242989) and the European Community 7th framework programme (FP7 2007-2013) under Grant Agreement 308299 (NACLIM) is gratefully acknowledged. The analysis benefited from the IPSL Prodiguer-Ciclad facility, which is supported by CNRS, UPMC, Labex L-IPSL funded by the ANR (Grant ANR-10-LABX-0018) and by the European FP7 IS-ENES2 project (Grant 312979).
    Description: 2016-04-01
    Keywords: Meridional overturning circulation ; North Atlantic Oscillation ; Climate models ; Climate variability
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2010. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 23 (2010): 6221–6233, doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3402.1.
    Description: Enhanced decadal variability in sea surface temperature (SST) centered on the Kuroshio Extension (KE) has been found in the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3) as well as in other coupled climate models. This decadal peak has higher energy than is found in nature, almost twice as large in some cases. While previous analyses have concentrated on the mechanisms for such decadal variability in coupled models, an analysis of the causes of excessive SST response to changes in wind stress has been missing. Here, a detailed comparison of the relationships between interannual changes in SST and sea surface height (SSH) as a proxy for geostrophic surface currents in the region in both CCSM3 and observations, and how these relationships depend on the mean ocean circulation, temperature, and salinity, is made. We use observationally based climatological temperature and salinity fields as well as satellite-based SSH and SST fields for comparison. The primary cause for the excessive SST variability is the coincidence of the mean KE with the region of largest SST gradients in the model. In observations, these two regions are separated by almost 500 km. In addition, the too shallow surface oceanic mixed layer in March north of the KE in the subarctic Pacific contributes to the biases. These biases are not unique to CCSM3 and suggest that mean biases in current, temperature, and salinity structures in separated western boundary current regions can exert a large influence on the size of modeled decadal SST variability.
    Description: Support for L.T. was provided by the NASA sponsored Ocean Surface Topography Science Team, under Contract 1267196 with the University of Washington, administered by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Support for Y.-O. K. comes from the NOAA Office of Global Programs (grant to C. Deser and Y.-O. Kwon) and the WHOI Heyman fellowship.
    Keywords: Bias ; Coupled models ; Decadal variability ; Ocean models ; Sea surface temperature ; Wind stress
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2022-10-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2020. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 47(1), (2020): e2019GL085455, doi:10.1029/2019GL085455.
    Description: The meridional coherence, connectivity, and regional inhomogeneity in long‐term sea surface temperature (SST) variability over the Northwest Atlantic continental shelf and slope from 1982–2018 are investigated using observational data sets. A meridionally concurrent large SST warming trend is identified as the dominant signal over the length of the continental shelf and slope between Cape Hatteras in North Carolina and Cape Chidley, Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada. The linear trends are 0.37 ± 0.06 and 0.39 ± 0.06 °C/decade for the shelf and slope regions, respectively. These meridionally averaged SST time series over the shelf and slope are consistent with each other and across multiple longer observational data sets with records dating back to 1900. The coherence between the long‐term meridionally averaged time series over the shelf and slope and basin‐wide averaged SST in the North Atlantic implies approximately two thirds of the warming trend during 1982–2018 may be attributed to natural climate variability and the rest to externally forced change including anthropogenic warming.
    Description: We are grateful to the Editor Dr. Kathleen Donohue and two anonymous reviewers. This work was supported by NOAA's Climate Program Office's Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections (MAPP) program (NA19OAR4320074). We acknowledge our participation in MAPP's Marine Prediction Task Force. The data of NOAA OISST used in this study are available at NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.noaa.oisst.v2.highres.html). The HadISST data set is available at Met Office, Hadley Centre (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadisst/). The COBE SST and NOAA ERSST data sets are available at NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory's Physical Sciences Division (https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.cobe.html; https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.noaa.ersst.v5.html). The near‐surface air temperature is available at Global Historical Climatology Network‐Monthly Database (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data‐access/land‐based‐station‐data/land‐based‐datasets/global‐historical‐climatology‐network‐monthly‐version‐4). The data of SSH are available at Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (http://marine.copernicus.eu/services‐portfolio/access‐to‐products/?option=com_csw&view=details&product_id=SEALEVEL_GLO_PHY_ L4_REP_OBSERVATIONS_008_047).
    Description: 2020-07-06
    Keywords: Sea surface temperature ; Continental shelf ; Continental slope ; Long-term change ; Northwest Atlantic
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: © The Author(s), 2019. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Kwon, Y., Seo, H., Ummenhofer, C. C., & Joyce, T. M. Impact of multidecadal variability in Atlantic SST on winter atmospheric blocking. Journal of Climate, 33(3), (2020): 867-892, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0324.1.
    Description: Recent studies have suggested that coherent multidecadal variability exists between North Atlantic atmospheric blocking frequency and the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV). However, the role of AMV in modulating blocking variability on multidecadal times scales is not fully understood. This study examines this issue primarily using the NOAA Twentieth Century Reanalysis for 1901–2010. The second mode of the empirical orthogonal function for winter (December–March) atmospheric blocking variability in the North Atlantic exhibits oppositely signed anomalies of blocking frequency over Greenland and the Azores. Furthermore, its principal component time series shows a dominant multidecadal variability lagging AMV by several years. Composite analyses show that this lag is due to the slow evolution of the AMV sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, which is likely driven by the ocean circulation. Following the warm phase of AMV, the warm SST anomalies emerge in the western subpolar gyre over 3–7 years. The ocean–atmosphere interaction over these 3–7-yr periods is characterized by the damping of the warm SST anomalies by the surface heat flux anomalies, which in turn reduce the overall meridional gradient of the air temperature and thus weaken the meridional transient eddy heat flux in the lower troposphere. The anomalous transient eddy forcing then shifts the eddy-driven jet equatorward, resulting in enhanced Rossby wave breaking and blocking on the northern flank of the jet over Greenland. The opposite is true with the AMV cold phases but with much shorter lags, as the evolution of SST anomalies differs in the warm and cold phases.
    Description: We gratefully acknowledge support from the NSF Climate and Large-scale Dynamics Program (AGS-1355339) to Y-OK, HS, CCU, and TMJ, the NASA Physical Oceanography Program (NNX13AM59G) to Y-OK, HS, and TMJ, NOAA CPO Climate Variability and Predictability Program (NA13OAR4310139) and DOE CESD Regional and Global Model Analysis Program (DE-SC0019492) to Y-OK, and NSF Physical Oceanography Program (OCE-1419235) to HS. We are very grateful to the three anonymous reviewers and editor Dr. Mingfang Ting, for their thorough and insightful suggestions. The NOAA 20CR dataset was downloaded from the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Physical Science Division webpage (https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/20thC_Rean/). Support for the 20CR Project version 2c dataset is provided by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science Biological and Environmental Research (BER), and by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Program Office. The HadISST dataset was downloaded from the U.K. Met Office Hadley Centre webpage (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadisst/). The ERA-20C dataset was downloaded from the ECMWF webpage (https://apps.ecmwf.int/datasets/data/era20c-daily/). The ERSST5 dataset was provided by the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory Physical Science Division (https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.noaa.ersst.v5.html).
    Keywords: North Atlantic Ocean ; Atmosphere-ocean interaction ; Blocking ; Climate variability ; Multidecadal variability ; North Atlantic Oscillation
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2010. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 23 (2010): 3249-3281, doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3343.1.
    Description: Ocean–atmosphere interaction over the Northern Hemisphere western boundary current (WBC) regions (i.e., the Gulf Stream, Kuroshio, Oyashio, and their extensions) is reviewed with an emphasis on their role in basin-scale climate variability. SST anomalies exhibit considerable variance on interannual to decadal time scales in these regions. Low-frequency SST variability is primarily driven by basin-scale wind stress curl variability via the oceanic Rossby wave adjustment of the gyre-scale circulation that modulates the latitude and strength of the WBC-related oceanic fronts. Rectification of the variability by mesoscale eddies, reemergence of the anomalies from the preceding winter, and tropical remote forcing also play important roles in driving and maintaining the low-frequency variability in these regions. In the Gulf Stream region, interaction with the deep western boundary current also likely influences the low-frequency variability. Surface heat fluxes damp the low-frequency SST anomalies over the WBC regions; thus, heat fluxes originate with heat anomalies in the ocean and have the potential to drive the overlying atmospheric circulation. While recent observational studies demonstrate a local atmospheric boundary layer response to WBC changes, the latter’s influence on the large-scale atmospheric circulation is still unclear. Nevertheless, heat and moisture fluxes from the WBCs into the atmosphere influence the mean state of the atmospheric circulation, including anchoring the latitude of the storm tracks to the WBCs. Furthermore, many climate models suggest that the large-scale atmospheric response to SST anomalies driven by ocean dynamics in WBC regions can be important in generating decadal climate variability. As a step toward bridging climate model results and observations, the degree of realism of the WBC in current climate model simulations is assessed. Finally, outstanding issues concerning ocean–atmosphere interaction in WBC regions and its impact on climate variability are discussed.
    Description: Funding for LT was provided by the NASA-sponsored Ocean Surface Topography Science Team, under Contract 1267196 with the University of Washington, administered by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. HN was supported in part by the Grant-in-Aid 18204044 by the Japan Society for Promotion for Science (JSPS) and the Global Environment Research Fund (S-5) of the Japanese Ministry of Environment. YK was supported by the Kerr Endowed Fund and Penzance Endowed Fund.
    Keywords: Currents ; Sea surface temperature ; Anomalies ; Large-scale motions ; Oceanic mixed layer ; Northern Hemisphere
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2022-06-16
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2022. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 35(11), (2022): 3445-3457, https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-21-0656.1.
    Description: Unlike greenhouse gases (GHGs), anthropogenic aerosol (AA) concentrations have increased and then decreased over the past century or so, with the timing of the peak concentration varying in different regions. To date, it has been challenging to separate the climate impact of AAs from that due to GHGs and background internal variability. We use a pattern recognition method, taking advantage of spatiotemporal covariance information, to isolate the forced patterns for the surface ocean and associated atmospheric variables from the all-but-one forcing Community Earth System Model ensembles. We find that the aerosol-forced responses are dominated by two leading modes, with one associated with the historical increase and future decrease of global mean aerosol concentrations (dominated by the Northern Hemisphere sources) and the other due to the transition of the primary sources of AA from the west to the east and also from Northern Hemisphere extratropical regions to tropical regions. In particular, the aerosol transition effect, to some extent compensating the global mean effect, exhibits a zonal asymmetry in the surface temperature and salinity responses. We also show that this transition effect dominates the total AA effect during recent decades, e.g., 1967–2007.
    Description: All three authors are supported by U.S. National Science Foundation (OCE-2048336). The Community Earth System Model project is supported primarily by the National Science Foundation (https://www.cesm.ucar.edu/projects/community-projects/LENS/data-sets.html and https://www.cesm.ucar.edu/working_groups/CVC/simulations/cesm1-single_forcing_le.html).
    Keywords: Aerosol radiative effect ; Climate Change ; Climate variability ; Sea surface temperature ; Salinity
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2017. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 30 (2017): 9679-9702, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0707.1.
    Description: The North Atlantic atmospheric circulation response to the meridional shifts of the Gulf Stream (GS) path is examined using a large ensemble of high-resolution hemispheric-scale Weather Research and Forecasting Model simulations. The model is forced with a broad range of wintertime sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies derived from a lag regression on a GS index. The primary result of the model experiments, supported in part by an independent analysis of a reanalysis dataset, is that the large-scale quasi-steady North Atlantic circulation response is remarkably nonlinear about the sign and amplitude of the SST anomaly chosen over a wide range of GS shift scenarios. The nonlinear response prevails over the weak linear response and resembles the negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the leading intrinsic mode of variability in the model and the observations. Further analysis of the associated dynamics reveals that the nonlinear responses are accompanied by the shift of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet, which is reinforced, with nearly equal importance, by the high-frequency transient eddy feedback and the low-frequency wave-breaking events. Additional sensitivity simulations confirm that the nonlinearity of the circulation response is a robust feature found over the broad parameter space encompassing not only the varied SST but also the absence/presence of tropical influence, the varying lateral boundary conditions, and the initialization scheme. The result highlights the fundamental importance of the intrinsically nonlinear transient eddy dynamics and the eddy–mean flow interactions in generating the nonlinear downstream response to the meridional shifts in the Gulf Stream.
    Description: The authors are grateful for the support from NASA (NNX13AM59G) and the NSF (AGS-1355339, OCE-1419235).
    Description: 2018-05-07
    Keywords: North Atlantic Ocean ; Blocking ; North Atlantic Oscillation ; Atmosphere-ocean interaction ; Regional models ; Climate variability
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2014. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 27 (2014): 9359–9376, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00228.1.
    Description: Multidecadal variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is examined based on a comparison of the AMOC streamfunctions in depth and in density space, in a 700-yr present-day control integration of the fully coupled Community Climate System Model, version 3. The commonly used depth-coordinate AMOC primarily exhibits the variability associated with the deep equatorward transport that follows the changes in the Labrador Sea deep water formation. On the other hand, the density-based AMOC emphasizes the variability associated with the subpolar gyre circulation in the upper ocean leading to the changes in the Labrador Sea convection. Combining the two representations indicates that the ~20-yr periodicity of the AMOC variability in the first half of the simulation is primarily due to an ocean-only mode resulting from the coupling of the deep equatorward flow and the upper ocean gyre circulation near the Gulf Stream and North Atlantic Current. In addition, the density-based AMOC reveals a gradual change in the deep ocean associated with cooling and increased density, which is likely responsible for the transition of AMOC variability from strong ~20-yr oscillations to a weaker red noise–like multidecadal variability.
    Description: Support from the NOAA Climate Program Office (Grant NA10OAR4310202 and NA13OAR4310139) and NSF EaSM2 (OCE1242989) is gratefully acknowledged.
    Description: 2015-06-15
    Keywords: North Atlantic Ocean ; Meridional overturning circulation ; Ocean circulation ; Thermocline circulation ; Climate variability ; Multidecadal variability
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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