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  • 1
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    Decadal hindcasts initialized using observed surface wind stress: Evaluation and prediction out to 2024 (2015)
    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
    In:  Geophysical Research Letters, 42 (15). pp. 6454-6461.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-10
    Description: We use surface air temperature to evaluate the decadal forecast skill of the fully coupled Max Planck Institut Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) initialized using only surface wind stress applied to the ocean component of the model (Modini: Model initialization by partially coupled spin-up). Our analysis shows that the greenhouse gas forcing alone results in a significant forecast skill on the 2–5 and 6–9 year range even for uninitialized hindcasts. For the first forecast year, the forecast skill of Modini is generally comparable with previous initialization procedures applied to MPI-ESM. But only Modini is able to generate a significant skill (correlation) in the tropical Pacific for a 2–5 year (and to a lesser extent for a 6–9 year) hindcast. Modini is also better able to capture the observed hiatus in global warming in hindcast mode than the other methods. Finally, we present forecasts for 2015 and the average of years 2016–2019 and 2020–2024, predicting an end to the hiatus.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
    DOI: 10.1002/2015GL064833
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 2
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    Sea ice drift variability in Arctic Ocean Model Intercomparison Project models and observations (2007)
    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-01-07
    Description: Drift is a prominent parameter characterizing the Arctic sea ice cover that has a deep impact on the climate system. Hence it is a key issue to both the remote sensing as well as the modeling community, to provide reliable sea ice drift fields. This study focuses on the comparison of sea ice drift results from different sea ice‐ocean coupled models and the validation with observational data in the period 1979–2001. The models all take part in the Arctic Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (AOMIP) and the observations are mainly based on satellite imagery. According to speed distributions, one class of models has a mode at drift speeds around 3 cm s −1 and a short tail toward higher speeds. Another class shows a more even frequency distribution with large probability of drift speeds of 10 to 20 cm s −1 . Observations clearly agree better with the first class of model results. Reasons for these differences are manifold and lie in discrepancies of wind stress forcing as well as sea ice model characteristics and sea ice‐ocean coupling. Moreover, we investigated the drift patterns of anticyclonic and cyclonic wind‐driven regimes. The models are capable of producing realistic drift pattern variability. The winter of 1994/1995 stands out because of its maximum in Fram Strait ice export. Although export estimates of some models agree with observations, the corresponding inner Arctic drift pattern is not reproduced. The reason for this is found in the wind‐forcing as well as in differences in ocean velocities.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 3
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    Arctic pathways of Pacific Water: Arctic Ocean Model Intercomparison experiments (2016)
    Wiley
    In:  EPIC3Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans, Wiley, 121(1), pp. 27-59, ISSN: 0148-0227
    Details
    Publication Date: 2016-11-23
    Description: Pacific Water (PW) enters the Arctic Ocean through Bering Strait and brings heat, fresh water and nutrients from the northern Bering Sea. The circulation of PW in the central Arctic Ocean is only partially understood due to the lack of observations. In this paper pathways of PW are investigated using simulations with six state-of-the art regional and global Ocean General Circulation Models (OGCMs). In the simulations PW is tracked by a passive tracer, released in Bering Strait. Simulated PW water spreads from the Bering Strait region in three major branches. One of them starts in the Barrow Canyon, bringing PW along continental slope of Alaska into the Canadian Straits and then into Baffin Bay. The other initiates in the vicinity of the Herald Canyon and transports PW along the continental slope of the East-Siberian Sea into the transpolar drift, and then through Fram Strait and the Greenland Sea. The third branch begins near the Herald Shoal and the central Chukchi shelf and brings PW waters into the Beaufort Gyre. Models suggest that the spread of PW through the Arctic Ocean depends on the atmospheric circulation. In the models the wind, acting via Ekman pumping, drives the seasonal and interannual variability of PW in the Canadian Basin of the Arctic Ocean. The wind effects the simulated PW pathways by changing vertical shear of the relative vorticity of the ocean flow in the Canada Basin. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 4
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    Variability of Arctic sea-ice topography and its impact on the atmospheric surface drag (2014)
    Wiley
    In:  EPIC3Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, Wiley, 119(10), pp. 6743-6762, ISSN: 2169-9291
    Details
    Publication Date: 2014-11-27
    Description: Over the polar oceans, near-surface atmospheric transport of momentum is strongly influenced by sea-ice surface topography. The latter is analyzed on the basis of laser altimeter data obtained during airborne campaigns between 1995 and 2011 over more than 10,000 km of flight distance in different regions of the Arctic Ocean. Spectra of height and spacing between topographic features averaged over 10 km flight sections show that typical values are 0.45 m for the mean height and about 20 m for the mean spacing. Nevertheless, the variability is high and the spatial variability is stronger than the temporal one. The total topography spectrum is divided into a range with small obstacles (between 0.2 m and 0.8 m height) and large obstacles (≥0.8 m). Results show that large pressure ridges represent the dominant topographic feature only along the coast of Greenland. In the Central Arctic, the concentration of large ridges decreased over the years, accompanied by an increase of small obstacles concentration and this might be related to decreasing multiyear ice. The application of a topography-dependent parameterization of neutral atmospheric drag coefficients reflects the large variability in the sea-ice topography and reveals characteristic differences between the regions. Based on the analysis of the two spectral ranges, we find that the consideration of only large pressure ridges is not enough to characterize the roughness degree of an ice field, and the values of drag coefficients are in most regions strongly influenced by small obstacles.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 5
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    A glimpse beneath Antarctic sea ice: platelet-layer volume from multi-frequency electromagnetic induction sounding (2016)
    Wiley
    In:  EPIC3Geophysical Research Letters, Wiley, 43, ISSN: 0094-8276
    Details
    Publication Date: 2016-01-15
    Description: In Antarctica, ice crystals emerge from ice shelf cavities and accumulate in unconsolidated layers beneath nearby sea ice. Such sub-ice platelet layers form a unique habitat and serve as an indicator for the state of an ice shelf. However, the lack of a suitable methodology impedes an efficient quantification of this phenomenon on scales beyond point measurements. In this study, we inverted multifrequency electromagnetic (EM) induction soundings, obtained on fast ice with an underlying platelet layer along profiles of 〉100 km length in the eastern Weddell Sea. EM-derived platelet layer thickness and conductivity are consistent with other field observations. Our results suggest that platelet layer volume is higher than previously thought in this region and that platelet layer ice volume fraction is proportional to its thickness. We conclude that multifrequency EM is a suitable tool to determine platelet layer volume, with the potential to obtain crucial knowledge of associated processes in otherwise inaccessible ice shelf cavities.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 6
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    Towards an estimation of sub-sea-ice platelet-layer volume with multi-frequency electromagnetic induction sounding (2015)
    INT GLACIOL SOC
    In:  EPIC3Annals of Glaciology, INT GLACIOL SOC, 56(69), pp. 137-146, ISSN: 0260-3055
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-01-09
    Description: Ice-platelet clusters modify the heat and mass balance of sea ice near Antarctic ice shelves and provide a unique habitat for ice-associated organisms. The amount and distribution of these ice crystals below the solid sea ice provide insight into melt rates and circulation regimes in the ice-shelf cavities, which are difficult to observe directly. However, little is known about the circum-Antarctic volume of the sub-sea-ice platelet layer, because observations have mostly been limited to point measurements. In this study, we present a new application of multi-frequency electromagnetic (EM) induction sounding to quantify platelet-layer properties. Combining in situ data with the theoretical response yields a bulk platelet-layer conductivity of 1154 +/- 271 mSm–1 and ice-volume fractions of 0.29–0.43. Calibration routines and uncertainties are discussed in detail to facilitate future studies. Our results suggest that multi-frequency EM induction sounding is a promising method to efficiently map platelet-layer volume on a larger scale than has previously been feasible.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 7
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    Ice platelets below Weddell Sea landfast sea ice (2015)
    INT GLACIOL SOC
    In:  EPIC3Annals of Glaciology, INT GLACIOL SOC, 56(69), pp. 175-190, ISSN: 0260-3055
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019-12-03
    Description: Basal melt of ice shelves may lead to an accumulation of disc-shaped ice platelets underneath nearby sea ice, to form a sub-ice platelet layer. Here we present the seasonal cycle of sea ice attached to the Ekström Ice Shelf, Antarctica, and the underlying platelet layer in 2012. Ice platelets emerged from the cavity and interacted with the fast-ice cover of Atka Bay as early as June. Episodic accumulations throughout winter and spring led to an average platelet-layer thickness of 4m by December 2012, with local maxima of up to 10 m. The additional buoyancy partly prevented surface flooding and snow-ice formation, despite a thick snow cover. Subsequent thinning of the platelet layer from December onwards was associated with an inflow of warm surface water. The combination of model studies with observed fast-ice thickness revealed an average ice-volume fraction in the platelet layer of 0.25+-0.1. We found that nearly half of the combined solid sea-ice and ice-platelet volume in this area is generated by heat transfer to the ocean rather than to the atmosphere. The total ice-platelet volume underlying Atka Bay fast ice was equivalent to more than one-fifth of the annual basal melt volume under the Ekström Ice Shelf.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 8
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    Sensitivity of simulated Arctic sea ice to realistic ice thickness distributions and snow parameterizations (2014)
    Wiley
    In:  EPIC3Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, Wiley, 119(1), pp. 559-571, ISSN: 0148-0227
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-10-17
    Description: Sea ice and snow on sea ice to a large extent determine the surface heat budget in the Arctic Ocean. In spite of the advances in modeling sea-ice thermodynamics, a good number of models still rely on simple parameterizations of the thermodynamics of ice and snow. Based on simulations with an Arctic sea-ice model coupled to an ocean general circulation model, we analyzed the impact of changing two sea-ice parameterizations: (1) the prescribed ice thickness distribution (ITD) for surface heat budget calculations, and (2) the description of the snow layer. For the former, we prescribed a realistic ITD derived from airborne electromagnetic induction sounding measurements. For the latter, two different types of parameterizations were tested: (1) snow thickness independent of the sea-ice thickness below, and (2) a distribution proportional to the prescribed ITD. Our results show that changing the ITD from seven uniform categories to fifteen nonuniform categories derived from field measurements, and distributing the snow layer according to the ITD, leads to an increase in average Arctic-wide ice thickness by 0.56 m and an increase by 1 m in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and Canadian Basin. This increase is found to be a direct consequence of 524 km3 extra thermodynamic growth during the months of ice formation (January, February, and March). Our results emphasize that these parameterizations are a key factor in sea-ice modeling to improve the representation of the sea-ice energy balance.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 9
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    Impact of snow accumulation on CryoSat-2 range retrievals over Arctic sea ice: An observational approach with buoy data (2015)
    Wiley
    In:  EPIC3Geophysical Research Letters, Wiley, ISSN: 0094-8276
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019-07-17
    Description: Radar altimetry measurements of the current satellite mission CryoSat-2 show an increase of Arctic sea ice thickness in autumn 2013, compared to previous years but also related to March 2013. Such an increase over the melting season seems unlikely and needs to be investigated. Recent studies show that the influence of the snow cover is not negligible and can highly affect the CryoSat-2 range retrievals if it is assumed that the main scattering horizon is given by the snow-ice interface. Our analysis of Arctic ice mass balance buoy records and coincident CryoSat-2 data between 2012 and 2014 adds observational evidence to these findings. Linear trends of snow and ice freeboard measurements from buoys and nearby CryoSat-2 freeboard retrievals are calculated during accumulation events. We find a positive correlation between buoy snow freeboard and CryoSat-2 freeboard estimates, revealing that early snow accumulation might have caused a bias in CryoSat-2 sea ice thickness in autumn 2013.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 10
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    Impact of snow accumulation on CryoSat-2 range retrievals over Arctic sea ice: An observational approach with buoy data (2015)
    Wiley
    In:  EPIC3Geophysical Research Letters, Wiley, 42(11), pp. 4447-4455
    Details
    Publication Date: 2016-02-08
    Description: Radar altimetry measurements of the current satellite mission CryoSat-2 show an increase of Arctic sea ice thickness in autumn 2013, compared to previous years but also related to March 2013. Such an increase over the melting season seems unlikely and needs to be investigated. Recent studies show that the influence of the snow cover is not negligible and can highly affect the CryoSat-2 range retrievals if it is assumed that the main scattering horizon is given by the snow-ice interface. Our analysis of Arctic ice mass balance buoy records and coincident CryoSat-2 data between 2012 and 2014 adds observational evidence to these findings. Linear trends of snow and ice freeboard measurements from buoys and nearby CryoSat-2 freeboard retrievals are calculated during accumulation events. We find a positive correlation between buoy snow freeboard and CryoSat-2 freeboard estimates, revealing that early snow accumulation might have caused a bias in CryoSat-2 sea ice thickness in autumn 2013.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , peerRev
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