Beschreibung: El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Pacific and the analogous Atlantic Niño mode are generated by processes involving coupled ocean–atmosphere interactions known as the Bjerknes feedback. It has been argued that the Atlantic Niño mode is more strongly damped than ENSO, which is presumed to be closer to neutrally stable. In this study the stability of ENSO and the Atlantic Niño mode is compared via an analysis of the Bjerknes stability index. This index is based on recharge oscillator theory and can be interpreted as the growth rate for coupled modes of ocean–atmosphere variability. Using observational data, an ocean reanalysis product, and output from an ocean general circulation model, the individual terms of the Bjerknes index are calculated for the first time for the Atlantic and then compared to results for the Pacific. Positive thermocline feedbacks in response to wind stress forcing favor anomaly growth in both basins, but they are twice as large in the Pacific compared to the Atlantic. Thermocline feedback is related to the fetch of the zonal winds, which is much greater in the equatorial Pacific than in the equatorial Atlantic due to larger basin size. Negative feedbacks are dominated by thermal damping of sea surface temperature anomalies in both basins. Overall, it is found that both ENSO and the Atlantic Niño mode are damped oscillators, but the Atlantic is more strongly damped than the Pacific primarily because of the weaker thermocline feedback.

Beschreibung: El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Pacific is asymmetric for warm and cold events with respect to amplitude, spatial patterns and temporal evolution. Here the symmetry of the Atlantic Niño mode, which many previous studies have argued is governed by atmosphere–ocean dynamics similar to those of ENSO, is investigated using two different ocean reanalysis products. Calculation of Bjerknes feedback terms for the Pacific reveals a pronounced asymmetry between warm and cold events, though unlike most previous studies, the largest asymmetry is found in the relationship between eastern Pacific thermocline depth and SST anomalies. For the Atlantic, cold events are effectively mirror images of warm events with Bjerknes feedbacks of similar strength. The analysis supports not only the conclusion that Atlantic Niños are more symmetric than ENSO, but the hypothesis itself that the Bjerknes feedback is operative in the Atlantic given the strength of the relationship between the key variables involved.

Beschreibung: Subtropical western boundary currents are warm, fast-flowing currents that form on the western side of ocean basins. They carry warm tropical water to the mid-latitudes and vent large amounts of heat and moisture to the atmosphere along their paths, affecting atmospheric jet streams and mid-latitude storms, as well as ocean carbon uptake1, 2, 3, 4. The possibility that these highly energetic currents might change under greenhouse-gas forcing has raised significant concerns5, 6, 7, but detecting such changes is challenging owing to limited observations. Here, using reconstructed sea surface temperature datasets and century-long ocean and atmosphere reanalysis products, we find that the post-1900 surface ocean warming rate over the path of these currents is two to three times faster than the global mean surface ocean warming rate. The accelerated warming is associated with a synchronous poleward shift and/or intensification of global subtropical western boundary currents in conjunction with a systematic change in winds over both hemispheres. This enhanced warming may reduce the ability of the oceans to absorb anthropogenic carbon dioxide over these regions. However, uncertainties in detection and attribution of these warming trends remain, pointing to a need for a long-term monitoring network of the global western boundary currents and their extensions.

Beschreibung: Prediction and Research Moored Array in the Tropical Atlantic (PIRATA) is a multinational program initiated in 1997 in the tropical Atlantic to improve our understanding and ability to predict ocean-atmosphere variability. PIRATA consists of a network of moored buoys providing meteorological and oceanographic data transmitted in real time to address fundamental scientific questions as well as societal needs. The network is maintained through dedicated yearly cruises, which allow for extensive complementary shipboard measurements and provide platforms for deployment of other components of the Tropical Atlantic Observing System. This paper describes network enhancements, scientific accomplishments and successes obtained from the last 10 years of observations, and additional results enabled by cooperation with other national and international programs. Capacity building activities and the role of PIRATA in a future Tropical Atlantic Observing System that is presently being optimized are also described.

Beschreibung: Originating in the equatorial Pacific, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has highly consequential global impacts, motivating the need to understand its responses to anthropogenic warming. In this Review, we synthesize advances in observed and projected changes of multiple aspects of ENSO, including the processes behind such changes. As in previous syntheses, there is an inter-model consensus of an increase in future ENSO rainfall variability. Now, however, it is apparent that models that best capture key ENSO dynamics also tend to project an increase in future ENSO sea surface temperature variability and, thereby, ENSO magnitude under greenhouse warming, as well as an eastward shift and intensification of ENSO-related atmospheric teleconnections — the Pacific–North American and Pacific–South American patterns. Such projected changes are consistent with palaeoclimate evidence of stronger ENSO variability since the 1950s compared with past centuries. The increase in ENSO variability, though underpinned by increased equatorial Pacific upper-ocean stratification, is strongly influenced by internal variability, raising issues about its quantifiability and detectability. Yet, ongoing coordinated community efforts and computational advances are enabling long-simulation, large-ensemble experiments and high-resolution modelling, offering encouraging prospects for alleviating model biases, incorporating fundamental dynamical processes and reducing uncertainties in projections. Key points Under anthropogenic warming, the majority of climate models project faster background warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific compared with the west. The observed equatorial Pacific surface warming pattern since 1980, though opposite to the projected faster warming in the equatorial eastern Pacific, is within the inter-model range in terms of sea surface temperature (SST) gradients and is subject to influence from internal variability. El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) rainfall responses in the equatorial Pacific are projected to intensify and shift eastward, leading to an eastward intensification of extratropical teleconnections. ENSO SST variability and extreme ENSO events are projected to increase under greenhouse warming, with a stronger inter-model consensus in CMIP6 compared with CMIP5. However, the time of emergence for ENSO SST variability is later than that for ENSO rainfall variability, opposite to that for mean SST versus mean rainfall. Future ENSO change is likely influenced by past variability, such that quantification of future ENSO in the only realization of the real world is challenging. Although there is no definitive relationship of ENSO variability with the mean zonal SST gradient or seasonal cycle, palaeoclimate records suggest a causal connection between vertical temperature stratification and ENSO strength, and a greater ENSO strength since the 1950s than in past centuries, supporting an emerging increase in ENSO variability under greenhouse warming.

Beschreibung: Based on velocity data from a long-term moored observatory located at 0°N, 23°W we present evidence of a vertical asymmetry during the intraseasonal maxima of northward and southward upper-ocean flow in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean. Periods of northward flow are characterized by a meridional velocity maximum close to the surface, while southward phases show a subsurface velocity maximum at about 40 m. We show that the observed asymmetry is caused by the local winds. Southerly wind stress at the equator drives northward flow near the surface and southward flow below that is superimposed on the Tropical Instability Wave (TIW) velocity field. This wind-driven overturning cell, known as the Equatorial Roll, shows a distinct seasonal cycle linked to the seasonality of the meridional component of the south-easterly trade winds. The superposition of vertical shear of the Equatorial Roll and TIWs causes asymmetric mixing during northward and southward TIW phases. Key Points: - Composites of Tropical Instability Waves at 0°N, 23°W show a surface (subsurface) velocity maximum during northward (southward) phases - Meridional wind stress forces a seasonally-varying, shallow cross-equatorial overturning cell-the Equatorial Roll - The superposition of Tropical Instability Waves and Equatorial Roll causes asymmetric mixing during north- and southward phases

Beschreibung: El Niño events are characterized by surface warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean and weakening of equatorial trade winds that occur every few years. Such conditions are accompanied by changes in atmospheric and oceanic circulation, affecting global climate, marine and terrestrial ecosystems, fisheries and human activities. The alternation of warm El Niño and cold La Niña conditions, referred to as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), represents the strongest year-to-year fluctuation of the global climate system. Here we provide a synopsis of our current understanding of the spatio-temporal complexity of this important climate mode and its influence on the Earth system.

Beschreibung: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2011. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 41 (2011): 1741–1755, doi:10.1175/2011JPO4437.1.

Beschreibung: An in-depth data analysis was conducted to understand the occurrence of a strong sea surface temperature (SST) front in the central Bay of Bengal before the formation of Cyclone Nargis in April 2008. Nargis changed its course after encountering the front and tracked along the front until making landfall. One unique feature of this SST front was its coupling with high sea surface height anomalies (SSHAs), which is unusual for a basin where SST is normally uncorrelated with SSHA. The high SSHAs were associated with downwelling Rossby waves, and the interaction between downwelling and surface fresh waters was a key mechanism to account for the observed SST–SSHA coupling. The near-surface salinity field in the bay is characterized by strong stratification and a pronounced horizontal gradient, with low salinity in the northeast. During the passage of downwelling Rossby waves, freshening of the surface layer was observed when surface velocities were southwestward. Horizontal convergence of freshwater associated with downwelling Rossby waves increased the buoyancy of the upper layer and caused the mixed layer to shoal to within a few meters of the surface. Surface heating trapped in the thin mixed layer caused the fresh layer to warm, whereas the increase in buoyancy from low-salinity waters enhanced the high SSHA associated with Rossby waves. Thus, high SST coincided with high SSHA. The dominant role of salinity in controlling high SSHA suggests that caution should be exercised when computing hurricane heat potential in the bay from SSHA. This situation is different from most tropical oceans, where temperature has the dominant effect on SSHA.

Beschreibung: This work was supported by the NOAA/Office of Climate Observation (OCO) program.

Beschreibung: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2018. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 99, Suppl. S (2018): S21-S26, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0128.1.

Beschreibung: NOAA Coral Reef Conservation Program; National Science Foundation OCE 1537338, OCE 1605365, OCE 1031971