Description: We test the ability of a two-dimensional flux model to simulate polynya events with narrow open-water zones by comparing model results to ice-thickness and ice-production estimates derived from thermal infrared Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) observations in conjunction with an atmospheric dataset. Given a polynya boundary and an atmospheric dataset, the model correctly reproduces the shape of an 11 day long event, using only a few simple conservation laws. Ice production is slightly overestimated by the model, owing to an underestimated ice thickness. We achieved best model results with the consolidation thickness parameterization developed by Biggs and others (2000). Observed regional discrepancies between model and satellite estimates might be a consequence of the missing representation of the dynamic of the thin-ice thickening (e.g. rafting). We conclude that this simplified polynya model is a valuable tool for studying polynya dynamics and estimating associated fluxes of single polynya events.

Description: Satellite observations of microwave brightness temperatures between 19 GHz and 85 GHz are the main data sources for operational sea-ice monitoring and retrieval of ice concentrations. However, microwave brightness temperatures depend on the emissivity of snow and ice, which is subject to pronounced seasonal variations and shows significant hemispheric contrasts. These mainly arise from differences in the rate and strength of snow metamorphism and melt. We here use the thermodynamic snow model SNTHERM forced by European Re-Analysis (ERA) interim data and the Microwave Emission Model of Layered Snowpacks (MEMLS), to calculate the sea-ice surface emissivity and to identify the contribution of regional patterns in atmospheric conditions to its variability in the Arctic and Antarctic. The computed emissivities reveal a pronounced seasonal cycle with large regional variability. The emissivity variability increases from winter to early summer and is more pronounced in the Antarctic. In the pre-melt period (January–May, July–November) the standard deviations in surface microwave emissivity due to diurnal, regional and inter-annual variability of atmospheric forcing reach up to Δε = 0.034, 0.043, and 0.097 for 19 GHz, 37 GHz and 85 GHz channels, respectively. Between 2000 and 2009, small but significant positive emissivity trends were observed in the Weddell Sea during November and December as well as in Fram Strait during February, potentially related to earlier melt onset in these regions. The obtained results contribute to a better understanding of the uncertainty and variability of sea-ice concentration and snow-depth retrievals in regions of high sea-ice concentrations.

Description: Arctic flaw polynyas are considered to be highly productive areas for the formation of sea-ice throughout the winter season. Most estimates of sea-ice production are based on the surface energy balance equation and use global reanalyses as atmospheric forcing, which are too coarse to take into account the impact of polynyas on the atmosphere. Additional errors in the estimates of polynya ice production may result from the methods of calculating atmospheric energy fluxes and the assumption of a thin-ice distribution within polynyas. The present study uses simulations using the mesoscale weather prediction model of the Consortium for Small-scale Modelling (COSMO), where polynya area is prescribed from satellite data. The polynya area is either assumed to be ice-free or to be covered with thin ice of 10 cm. Simulations have been performed for two winter periods (2007/08 and 2008/09). When using a realistic thin-ice thickness of 10 cm, sea-ice production in Laptev polynyas amount to 30 km3 and 73 km3 for the winters 2007/08 and 2008/09, respectively. The higher turbulent energy fluxes of open-water polynyas result in a 5070% increase in sea-ice production (49 km3 in 2007/08 and 123 km3 in 2008/09). Our results suggest that previous studies have overestimated ice production in the Laptev Sea.

Description: Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) snow-depth data for Antarctic sea ice are compared with ship-based visual observations of snow depth, ice type and ridged-ice fraction, and with satellite C-band and Ku-band radar backscatter observations for two ship cruises into the Weddell Sea (ISPOL 2004–05, WWOS 2006) and one cruise into the Bellingshausen Sea (SIMBA 2007) during late winter/spring. Most (〉75%) AMSR-E and ship-based snow-depth observations agree within 0.2 m during WWOS and SIMBA. Remaining observations indicate substantial underestimations of snow depths by AMSR-E data. These underestimations tend to increase with the ridged-ice fraction for WWOS and SIMBA. In areas with large snow depths, a combination of relatively stable low C-band radar backscatter and variable Ku-band radar backscatter is associated with undeformed first-year ice and may indicate snow metamorphism at this time of year during SIMBA. In areas with small snow depths, a combination of relatively stable low Ku-band radar backscatter, high C-band radar backscatter and low C-band radar backscatter standard deviations is associated with rough first-year ice during SIMBA. This information can help to better understand causes of the observed AMSR-E snow-depth bias during late-winter/spring conditions with decreasing average snow depth and to delineate areas where this bias occurs.

Description: Variability and trends in seasonal and interannual ice area export out of the Laptev Sea between 1992 and 2011 are investigated using satellite-based sea ice drift and concentration data. We found an average total winter (October to May) ice area transport across the northern and eastern Laptev Sea boundaries (NB and EB) of 3.48 × 10hoch5 km2. The average transport across the NB (2.87 × 10hoch5 km2)is thereby higher than across the EB (0.61 × 10hoch5 km2), with a less pronounced seasonal cycle. The total Laptev Sea ice area flux significantly increased over the last decades (0.85 × 10hoch5 km2 decade−1, p 〉 0.95), dominated by increasing export through the EB (0.55 × 10hoch5 km2 decade−1, p 〉 0.90), while the increase in export across the NB is smaller (0.3 × 10hoch5 km2 decade−1) and statistically not significant. The strong coupling between across-boundary SLP gradient and ice drift velocity indicates that monthly variations in ice area flux are primarily controlled by changes in geostrophic wind velocities, although the Laptev Sea ice circulation shows no clear relationship with large-scale atmospheric indices. Also there is no evidence of increasing wind velocities that could explain the overall positive trends in ice export. The increased transport rates are rather the consequence of a changing ice cover such as thinning and/or a decrease in concentration. The use of a back-propagation method revealed that most of the ice that is incorporated into the Transpolar Drift is formed during freeze-up and originates from the central and western part of the Laptev Sea, while the exchange with the East Siberian Sea is dominated by ice coming from the central and southeastern Laptev Sea. Furthermore, our results imply that years of high ice export in late winter (February to May) have a thinning effect on the ice cover, which in turn preconditions the occurence of negative sea ice extent anomalies in summer.

Description: Polynyas in the Laptev Sea are examined with respect to recurrence and interannual wintertime ice production.We use a polynya classification method based on passive microwave satellite data to derive daily polynya area from long-term sea-ice concentrations. This provides insight into the spatial and temporal variability of open-water and thin-ice regions on the Laptev Sea Shelf. Using thermal infrared satellite data to derive an empirical thin-ice distribution within the thickness range from 0 to 20 cm, we calculate daily average surface heat loss and the resulting wintertime ice formation within the Laptev Sea polynyas between 1979 and 2008 using reanalysis data supplied by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, USA, as atmospheric forcing. Results indicate that previous studies significantly overestimate the contribution of polynyas to the ice production in the Laptev Sea. Average wintertime ice production in polynyas amounts to approximately 55 km3 ± 27% and is mostly determined by the polynya area, wind speed and associated large-scale circulation patterns. No trend in ice production could be detected in the period from 1979/80 to 2007/08.

Description: Sea-ice concentrations in the Laptev Sea simulated by the coupled North Atlantic—Arctic Ocean—Sea-Ice Model and Finite Element Sea-Ice Ocean Model are evaluated using sea-ice concentrations from Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer—Earth Observing System satellite data and a polynya classification method for winter 2007/08. While developed to simulate largescale sea-ice conditions, both models are analysed here in terms of polynya simulation. The main modification of both models in this study is the implementation of a landfast-ice mask. Simulated sea-ice fields from different model runs are compared with emphasis placed on the impact of this prescribed landfast-ice mask. We demonstrate that sea-ice models are not able to simulate flaw polynyas realistically when used without fast-ice description. Our investigations indicate that without landfast ice and with coarse horizontal resolution the models overestimate the fraction of open water in the polynya. This is not because a realistic polynya appears but due to a larger-scale reduction of ice concentrations and smoothed ice-concentration fields. After implementation of a landfast-ice mask, the polynya location is realistically simulated but the total open-water area is still overestimated in most cases. The study shows that the fast-ice parameterization is essential for model improvements. However, further improvements are necessary in order to progress from the simulation of large-scale features in the Arctic towards a more detailed simulation of smaller-scaled features (here polynyas) in an Arctic shelf sea.

Description: Previous versions of the Consortium for Small-scale Modelling (COSMO) numerical weather prediction model have used a constant sea-ice surface temperature, but observations show a high degree of variability on sub-daily timescales. To account for this, we have implemented a thermodynamic sea-ice module in COSMO and performed simulations at a resolution of 15 km and 5 km for the Laptev Sea area in April 2008. Temporal and spatial variability of surface and 2-m air temperature are verified by four automatic weather stations deployed along the edge of the western New Siberian polynya during the Transdrift XIII-2 expedition and by surface temperature charts derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite data. A remarkable agreement between the new model results and these observations demonstrates that the implemented sea-ice module can be applied for short-range simulations. Prescribing the polynya areas daily, our COSMO simulations provide a high-resolution and high-quality atmospheric data set for the Laptev Sea for the period 14–30 April 2008. Based on this data set, we derive a mean total sea-ice production rate of 0.53 km3/day for all Laptev Sea polynyas under the assumption that the polynyas are ice-free and a rate of 0.30 km3/day if a 10-cm-thin ice layer is assumed. Our results indicate that ice production in Laptev Sea polynyas has been overestimated in previous studies.

Description: Spatial and temporal characteristics of the Storfjorden polynya, which forms regularly in the proximity of the islands Spitsbergen, Barentsøya and Edgeøya in the Svalbard archipelago under the influence of strong north-easterly winds, have been investigated for the period 2002/2003 to 2013/2014 using thermal infrared satellite imagery. Thin-ice thicknesses were calculated from MODIS ice-surface temperatures, combined with ECMWF ERA-Interim atmospheric reanalysis data in an energy-balance model. Based on calculated thin-ice thicknesses, associated quantities like polynya area and total ice production were derived and compared to previous remote sensing and modeling studies. A basic coverage-correction scheme was applied to account for cloud-gaps in the daily composites. The sea ice in the Storfjorden area experiences a late fall freeze-up in several years over the 12 winter-period, with an increasing frequency of large polynya events until the end of December. During the regarded period, the mean polynya area is 4555.7 ± 1542.9 km2. The average ice production in the fjord is estimated with 28.3 ± 8.5 km3 per winter and therefore lower than in previous studies. Despite this comparatively short record of 12 winter-seasons, a significant positive trend of 20.2 km3 per decade could be detected, which contrasts earlier reports of a slightly negative trend in accumulated ice production prior to 2002. Derived estimates underline the importance of this relatively small coastal polynya system considering its contribution to the cold halocline layer through salt release during ice formation processes.