Description: The Arctic hydrological cycle throughout the Holocene is analyzed based on the results of transient simulations with the coupled atmosphere-ocean circulation model ECHO-G. The results suggest a ~ 2% increase of mid-Holocene to preindustrial Arctic river discharges for the Eurasian continent. However, rivers of the North America Arctic realm show a moderate runoff decline of approximately 4 to 5% for the same period. The total river discharge into the Arctic Ocean has remained at an approximately constant preindustrial level since the mid-Holocene. The positive discharge trend within Eurasia is caused by a more rapid decrease in local net evaporation compared to a smaller decline in advected moisture and hence precipitation. This effect is neither recognized within the North American Arctic domain nor in the far eastern part of the Eurasian Arctic realm. A detailed comparison of these model findings with a variety of proxy studies is conducted. The collected proxy records show trends of continental surface temperatures and precipitation rates that are consistent with the simulations. A continuation of the transient Holocene runs for the 19th and 20th century with increased greenhouse gasses indicates an increase of the total river influx into the Arctic Ocean of up to 7.6%. The Eurasian river discharges increase by 7.5%, the North American discharges by up to 8.4%. The most rapid increases have been detected since the beginning of the 20th century. These results are corroborated by the observed rising of Arctic river discharges during the last century which is attributed to anthropogenic warming. The acceleration of the Arctic hydrological cycle in the 20th century is without precedence in the Holocene.

Description: We introduce a technique of time series analysis, potential forecasting, which is based on dynamical propagation of the probability density of time series. We employ polynomial coefficients of the orthogonal approximation of the empirical probability distribution and extrapolate them in order to forecast the future probability distribution of data. The method is tested on artificial data, used for hindcasting observed climate data, and then applied to forecast Arctic sea-ice time series. The proposed methodology completes a framework for ‘potential analysis’ of tipping points which altogether serves anticipating, detecting and forecasting nonlinear changes including bifurcations using several independent techniques of time series analysis. Although being applied to climatological series in the present paper, the method is very general and can be used to forecast dynamics in time series of any origin.

Description: Abrupt decadal climate changes during the last glacial-interglacial cycle are less pronounced during maximum glacial conditions and absent during the Holocene. To further understand the underlying dynamics, we conduct hosing experiments for three climate states: Pre-industrial (PI), 32 kilo years before present (ka BP) and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Our simulations show that a stronger temperature inversion between the surface and intermediate layer in the South Labrador Sea induces a faster restart of convective processes (32 ka BP 〉 LGM 〉 PI) during the initial resumption of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). A few decades later, an AMOC overshoot is mainly linked to the advection of warmer and saltier intermediate-layer water from the tropical Atlantic into the South Labrador Sea, which causes a stronger deep-water formation than that before the freshwater perturbation. This mechanism is most pronounced during the 32 ka BP, weaker during the LGM and absent during the PI.

Description: A critical problem in radiocarbon dating is the spatial and temporal variability of marine 14C reservoir ages. This is particularly true for the time scale beyond the tree-ring calibration range. Here, we propose a method to assess the evolution of marine reservoir ages during the last deglaciation by numerical modeling. We apply a self-consistent iteration scheme in which existing radiocarbon chronologies can be readjusted by transient, three-dimensional simulations of marine and atmospheric Δ14C. To estimate the uncertainties regarding the ocean ventilation during the last deglaciation, we consider various ocean overturning scenarios which are based on different climatic background states. An example readjusting 14C data from the Caribbean points to marine reservoir ages varying between 200 and 900 a during the last deglaciation. Correspondingly, the readjustment leads to enhanced variability of atmospheric Δ14C by ± 30‰, and increases the mysterious drop of atmospheric Δ14C between 17.5 and 14.5 cal ka BP by about 20‰.

Description: The relationships between the dominant modes of interannual variability of Diurnal Temperature Range (DTR) over Europe and large-scale atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature anomaly fields are investigated through statistical analysis of observed and reanalysis data. It is shown that the dominant DTR modes as well as their relationship with large-scale atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature anomaly fields are specific for each season. During winter the first and second modes of interannual DTR variability are strongly related with the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Scandinavian pattern, while the third mode is related with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Strong influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation on spring DTR modes of variability was also detected. During summer the DTR variability is influenced mostly by a blocking-like pattern over Europe, while the autumn DTR variability is associated with a wave-train like pattern, which develops over the Atlantic Ocean and extends up to Siberia. It is also found that the response of DTR to global sea surface temperature is much weaker in spring and summer comparing to winter and autumn. A correlation analysis reveals a strong relationship between DTR modes of variability and the Cloud Cover anomalies during all seasons. The influence of the potential evapotranspiration and precipitation anomalies on DTR modes of variability is strongest during summer, but it is significant also in spring and autumn. It is suggested that a large part of interannual to decadal DTR variability over Europe is induced by the large-scale climate anomaly patterns via modulation of cloud cover, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration anomaly fields.

Description: We compare a compilation of 220 sediment core δ13C data from the glacial Atlantic Ocean with three-dimensional ocean circulation simulations including a marine carbon cycle model. The carbon cycle model employs circulation fields which were derived from previous climate simulations. All sediment data have been thoroughly quality controlled, focusing on epibenthic foraminiferal species (such as Cibicidoides wuellerstorfi or Planulina ariminensis) to improve the comparability of model and sediment core carbon isotopes. The model captures the general δ13C pattern indicated by present-day water column data and Late Holocene sediment cores but underestimates intermediate and deep water values in the South Atlantic. The best agreement with glacial reconstructions is obtained for a model scenario with an altered freshwater balance in the Southern Ocean that mimics enhanced northward sea ice export and melting away from the zone of sea ice production. This results in a shoaled and weakened North Atlantic Deep Water flow and intensified Antarctic Bottom Water export, hence confirming previous reconstructions from paleoproxy records. Moreover, the modeled abyssal ocean is very cold and very saline, which is in line with other proxy data evidence.