Description: Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land use and land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2008–2017), EFF was 9.4±0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC 1.5±0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM 4.7±0.02 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN 2.4±0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 3.2±0.8 GtC yr−1, with a budget imbalance BIM of 0.5 GtC yr−1 indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For the year 2017 alone, the growth in EFF was about 1.6 % and emissions increased to 9.9±0.5 GtC yr−1. Also for 2017, ELUC was 1.4±0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM was 4.6±0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.5±0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.8±0.8 GtC yr−1, with a BIM of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 405.0±0.1 ppm averaged over 2017. For 2018, preliminary data for the first 6–9 months indicate a renewed growth in EFF of +2.7 % (range of 1.8 % to 3.7 %) based on national emission projections for China, the US, the EU, and India and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. The analysis presented here shows that the mean and trend in the five components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period of 1959–2017, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. A detailed comparison among individual estimates and the introduction of a broad range of observations show (1) no consensus in the mean and trend in land-use change emissions, (2) a persistent low agreement among the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) an apparent underestimation of the CO2 variability by ocean models, originating outside the tropics. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2018, 2016, 2015a, b, 2014, 2013)

Description: Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the "global carbon budget" – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land-cover change data and bookkeeping models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2007–2016), EFF was 9.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC 1.3 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM 4.7 ± 0.1 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN 2.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 3.0 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1, with a budget imbalance BIM of 0.6 GtC yr−1 indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For year 2016 alone, the growth in EFF was approximately zero and emissions remained at 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1. Also for 2016, ELUC was 1.3 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM was 6.1 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 2.7 ± 1.0 GtC yr−1, with a small BIM of −0.3 GtC. GATM continued to be higher in 2016 compared to the past decade (2007–2016), reflecting in part the high fossil emissions and the small SLAND consistent with El Niño conditions. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 402.8 ± 0.1 ppm averaged over 2016. For 2017, preliminary data for the first 6–9 months indicate a renewed growth in EFF of +2.0 % (range of 0.8 to 3.0 %) based on national emissions projections for China, USA, and India, and projections of gross domestic product (GDP) corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2016, 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). All results presented here can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2017 (GCP, 2017).

Description: Large-scale climatic forcing is impacting oceanic biogeochemical cycles and is expected to influence the water-column distribution of trace gases, including methane and nitrous oxide. Our ability as a scientific community to evaluate changes in the water-column inventories of methane and nitrous oxide depends largely on our capacity to obtain robust and accurate concentration measurements that can be validated across different laboratory groups. This study represents the first formal international intercomparison of oceanic methane and nitrous oxide measurements whereby participating laboratories received batches of seawater samples from the subtropical Pacific Ocean and the Baltic Sea. Additionally, compressed gas standards from the same calibration scale were distributed to the majority of participating laboratories to improve the analytical accuracy of the gas measurements. The computations used by each laboratory to derive the dissolved gas concentrations were also evaluated for inconsistencies (e.g., pressure and temperature corrections, solubility constants). The results from the intercomparison and intercalibration provided invaluable insights into methane and nitrous oxide measurements. It was observed that analyses of seawater samples with the lowest concentrations of methane and nitrous oxide had the lowest precisions. In comparison, while the analytical precision for samples with the highest concentrations of trace gases was better, the variability between the different laboratories was higher: 36% for methane and 27% for nitrous oxide. In addition, the comparison of different batches of seawater samples with methane and nitrous oxide concentrations that ranged over an order of magnitude revealed the ramifications of different calibration procedures for each trace gas. Finally, this study builds upon the intercomparison results to develop recommendations for improving oceanic methane and nitrous oxide measurements, with the aim of precluding future analytical discrepancies between laboratories.

Description: Highlights • Mega ebullition of biogenic methane from an abandoned offshore gas well, North Sea. • Evidence for midwater bubble plume intrusion, fallback, and short-circuiting of the plume. • Effective trapping of seabed released methane underneath the thermocline. • First observation of a spiral vortex methane plume and marginal turbulences. • Megaplumes appear less efficient in terms of vertical methane transport than previously thought. Abstract First direct evidence for ongoing gas seepage activity on the abandoned well site 22/4b (Northern North Sea, 57°55′ N, 01°38′ E) and discovery of neighboring seepage activity is provided from observations since 2005. A manned submersible dive in 2006 discovered several extraordinary intense seepage sites within a 60 m wide and 20 m deep crater cut into the flat 96 m deep seafloor. Capture and (isotope) chemical analyses of the gas bubbles near the seafloor revealed in situ concentrations of methane between 88 and 90%Vol. with δ13C–CH4 values around −74‰ VPDB, indicating a biogenic origin. Bulk methane concentrations throughout the water column were assessed by 120 Niskin water samples showing up to 400.000 nM CH4 in the crater at depth. In contrast, concentrations above the thermocline were orders of magnitude lower, with a median value of 20 nM. A dye tracer injection into the gas seeps revealed upwelling bubble and water motion with gas plume rise velocities up to ∼1 ms−1 (determined near the seabed). However, the dissolved dye did not pass the thermocline, but returned down to the seabed. Measurements of direct bubble-mediated atmospheric flux revealed low values of 0.7 ± 0.3 kty−1, much less than current state-of-the-art bubble dissolution models would predict for such a strong and upwelling in situ gas bubble flux at shallow water depths (i.e. ∼100 m). Acoustic multibeam water column imaging data indicate a pronounced 200 m lateral intrusion at the thermocline together with high methane concentration at this layer. A partly downward-orientated bubble plume motion is also visible in the acoustic data with potential short-circuiting in accordance to the dye experiment. This observation could partly explain the observed trapping of most of the released gas below the well-established thermocline in the North Sea. Moreover, 3D analyses of the multibeam water column data reveal that the upwelling plume transforms into a spiral expanding vortex while rising through the water column. Such a spiral vortex motion has never been reported before for marine gas seepage and might represent an important process with strong implication on plume dynamics, dissolution behavior, gas escape to the atmosphere, and is considered very important for respective modeling approaches.

Description: Extremely intense bubble plumes, like the North Sea 22/4b blowout megaplume (defined as more than 10(6) L day(-1)), create very strong upwelling flows (〉1 m s(-1)), which lead to detrainment of methane-enriched water, but leave direct bubble-mediated transport unaffected. Dissolved CH4 depth profiles and atmospheric measurements during a fall 2011 survey of the 22/4b site suggest strong constraint of seabed CH4 below the thermocline. Seabed bubbles were nearly pure CH4. The effect of the upwelling flow on the fate of bubble plume CH4 was investigated with a numerical bubble-propagation model. The model considered different representative bubble plume size distributions, phi, and a global (total) megaplume bubble size distribution, Phi, synthesized from video survey data and phi from the literature. Simulations showed that none of the literature plumes or variations in the upwelling flow could constrain CH4 sufficiently below the thermocline. Two new bubble megaplume processes were simulated, vortical bubble trapping (slow rise) and a hypothesized, enhanced bubble gas exchange, k(BE), an enhancement factor applied to the normal bubble gas exchange rate, k(B). The latter could arise from plume turbulence increasing bubble boundary-layer turbulence and thus its gas exchange. Observations could not be reproduced solely by slow rise, however, simulations with k(BE)similar to 6 reproduced observational constraints, as could weaker k(BE) in conjunction with slow rise. Field validation of k(BE) is needed given its implications for the fate of megaplume CH4 emissions (anthropogenic or natural) for stratified and unstratified conditions. kBE suggests marine CH4 geologic contributions to the atmosphere from all but shallow waters primarily arises from bubble plumes that are less than megaplume size.

Description: Large quantities of methane are stored in hydrates and permafrost within shallow marine sediments in the Arctic Ocean. These reservoirs are highly sensitive to climate warming, but the fate of methane released from sediments is uncertain. Here, we review the principal physical and biogeochemical processes that regulate methane fluxes across the seabed, the fate of this methane in the water column, and potential for its release to the atmosphere. We find that, at present, fluxes of dissolved methane are significantly moderated by anaerobic and aerobic oxidation of methane. If methane fluxes increase then a greater proportion of methane will be transported by advection or in the gas phase, which reduces the efficiency of the methanotrophic sink. Higher freshwater discharge to Arctic shelf seas may increase stratification and inhibit transfer of methane gas to surface waters, although there is some evidence that increased stratification may lead to warming of sub-pycnocline waters, increasing the potential for hydrate dissociation. Loss of sea-ice is likely to increase wind speeds and seaair exchange of methane will consequently increase. Studies of the distribution and cycling of methane beneath and within sea ice are limited, but it seems likely that the sea-air methane flux is higher during melting in seasonally ice-covered regions. Our review reveals that increased observations around especially the anaerobic and aerobic oxidation of methane, bubble transport, and the effects of ice cover, are required to fully understand the linkages and feedback pathways between climate warming and release of methane from marine sediments.

Description: Four mud extrusions were investigated along the erosive subduction zone off Costa Rica. Active fluid seepage from these structures is indicated by chemosynthetic communities, authigenic carbonates and methane plumes in the water column. We estimate the methane output from the individual mud extrusions using two independent approaches. The first is based on the amount of CH4 that becomes anaerobically oxidized in the sediment beneath areas covered by chemosynthetic communities, which ranges from 104 to 105 mol yr− 1. The remaining portion of CH4, which is released into the ocean, has been estimated to be 102–104 mol yr− 1 per mud extrusion. The second approach estimates the amount of CH4 discharging into the water column based on measurements of the near-bottom methane distribution and current velocities. This approach yields estimates between 104–105 mol yr−1. The discrepancy of the amount of CH4 emitted into the bottom water derived from the two approaches hints to methane seepage that cannot be accounted for by faunal growth, e.g. focused fluid emission through channels in sediments and fractures in carbonates. Extrapolated over the 48 mud extrusions discovered off Costa Rica, we estimate a CH4 output of 20·106 mol yr− 1 from mud extrusions along this 350 km long section of the continental margin. These estimates of methane emissions at an erosional continental margin are considerably lower than those reported from mud extrusion at accretionary and passive margins. Almost half of the continental margins are described as non-accretionary. Assuming that the moderate emission of methane at the mud extrusions off Costa Rica are typical for this kind of setting, then global estimates of methane emissions from submarine mud extrusions, which are based on data of mud extrusions located at accretionary and passive continental margins, appear to be significantly too high.

Description: The dissolution of in-situ generated methane hydrate in undersaturated, synthetic seawater (S = 35) was investigated in a series of laboratory-based experiments at P-/T-conditions within the hydrate stability field. A controlled flow field was generated across the smooth hydrate surface to test if, in addition to thermodynamic variables, the dissolution rate is influenced by changing hydrodynamic conditions. The dissolution rate was found to be strongly dependent on the friction velocity, showing that hydrate dissolution in undersaturated seawater is a diffusion-controlled process. The experimental data was used to obtain diffusional mass transfer coefficients kd, which were found to correlate linearly with the friction velocity, u★. The resulting kd/u★-correlation allows predicting the flux of methane from natural gas hydrate exposures at the sediment/seawater interface into the bulk water for a variety of natural P, T and flow conditions. It also is a tool for estimating the rate of hydrate regrowth at locations where natural hydrate outcrops at the seafloor persist in contact with undersaturated seawater

Description: Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2009–2018), EFF was 9.5±0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC 1.5±0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM 4.9±0.02 GtC yr−1 (2.3±0.01 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN 2.5±0.6 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 3.2±0.6 GtC yr−1, with a budget imbalance BIM of 0.4 GtC yr−1 indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For the year 2018 alone, the growth in EFF was about 2.1 % and fossil emissions increased to 10.0±0.5 GtC yr−1, reaching 10 GtC yr−1 for the first time in history, ELUC was 1.5±0.7 GtC yr−1, for total anthropogenic CO2 emissions of 11.5±0.9 GtC yr−1 (42.5±3.3 GtCO2). Also for 2018, GATM was 5.1±0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.4±0.1 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN was 2.6±0.6 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.5±0.7 GtC yr−1, with a BIM of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 407.38±0.1 ppm averaged over 2018. For 2019, preliminary data for the first 6–10 months indicate a reduced growth in EFF of +0.6 % (range of −0.2 % to 1.5 %) based on national emissions projections for China, the USA, the EU, and India and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. Overall, the mean and trend in the five components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2018, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. A detailed comparison among individual estimates and the introduction of a broad range of observations shows (1) no consensus in the mean and trend in land use change emissions over the last decade, (2) a persistent low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) an apparent underestimation of the CO2 variability by ocean models outside the tropics. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2018a, b, 2016, 2015a, b, 2014, 2013). The data generated by this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/gcp-2019 (Friedlingstein et al., 2019).

Description: The flow (flux) of climate-critical gases, such as carbon dioxide (CO2), between the ocean and the atmosphere is a fundamental component of our climate and an important driver of the biogeochemical systems within the oceans. Therefore, the accurate calculation of these air–sea gas fluxes is critical if we are to monitor the oceans and assess the impact that these gases are having on Earth's climate and ecosystems. FluxEngine is an open-source software toolbox that allows users to easily perform calculations of air–sea gas fluxes from model, in situ, and Earth observation data. The original development and verification of the toolbox was described in a previous publication. The toolbox has now been considerably updated to allow for its use as a Python library, to enable simplified installation, to ensure verification of its installation, to enable the handling of multiple sparingly soluble gases, and to enable the greatly expanded functionality for supporting in situ dataset analyses. This new functionality for supporting in situ analyses includes user-defined grids, time periods and projections, the ability to reanalyse in situ CO2 data to a common temperature dataset, and the ability to easily calculate gas fluxes using in situ data from drifting buoys, fixed moorings, and research cruises. Here we describe these new capabilities and demonstrate their application through illustrative case studies. The first case study demonstrates the workflow for accurately calculating CO2 fluxes using in situ data from four research cruises from the Surface Ocean CO2 ATlas (SOCAT) database. The second case study calculates air–sea CO2 fluxes using in situ data from a fixed monitoring station in the Baltic Sea. The third case study focuses on nitrous oxide (N2O) and, through a user-defined gas transfer parameterisation, identifies that biological surfactants in the North Atlantic could suppress individual N2O sea–air gas fluxes by up to 13 %. The fourth and final case study illustrates how a dissipation-based gas transfer parameterisation can be implemented and used. The updated version of the toolbox (version 3) and all documentation is now freely available.