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  • 1
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    LakeCC: a tool for efficiently identifying lake basins with application to palaeogeographic reconstructions of North America (2020)
    Wiley
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-02-08
    Description: Along the margins of continental ice sheets, lakes formed in isostatically depressed basins duringglacial retreat. Their shorelines and extent are sensitive to the ice margin and the glacial history of the region.Proglacial lakes, in turn, also impact the glacial isostatic adjustment due to loading, and ice dynamics by posing amarine‐like boundary condition at the ice margin. In this study we present a tool that efficiently identifies lake basinsand the corresponding maximum water level for a given ice sheet and topography reconstruction. This algorithm,called the LakeCC model, iteratively checks the whole map for a set of increasing water levels and fills isolated basinsuntil they overflow into the ocean. We apply it to the present‐day Great Lakes and the results show good agreement(∼1−4%) with measured lake volume and depth. We then apply it to two topography reconstructions of NorthAmerica between the Last Glacial Maximum and the present. The model successfully reconstructs glacial lakes suchas Lake Agassiz, Lake McConnell and the predecessors of the Great Lakes. LakeCC can be used to judge the quality ofice sheet reconstructions.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 2
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    On timescales and reversibility of the ocean's response to enhanced Greenland Ice Sheet melting in comprehensive climate models (2022)
    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-02-07
    Description: Warming of the North Atlantic region in climate history often was associated with massive melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet. To identify the meltwater’s impacts and isolate these from internal variability and other global warming factors, we run single-forcing simulations including small ensembles using three complex climate models differing only in their ocean components. In 200-year long pre-industrial climate simulations, we identify robust consequences of abruptly increasing Greenland runoff by 0.05 Sv: sea-level rise of 44±10 cm, subpolar North Atlantic surface cooling of 0.7˚C and a moderate AMOC decline of 1.1–2.0 Sv. The latter two emerge in under three decades—and reverse on the same timescale after the perturbation ends in year 100. The ocean translates the step-change perturbation into a multi-decadal to centennial signature in the deep overturning circulation. In all simulations, internal variability creates notable uncertainty in estimating trends, time of emergence and duration of the response.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: text
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 3
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    No Consistent Simulated Trends in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation for the Past 6,000 Years (2023)
    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-02-07
    Description: The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a key feature of the North Atlantic with global ocean impacts. The AMOC's response to past changes in forcings during the Holocene provides important context for the coming centuries. Here, we investigate AMOC trends using an emerging set of transient simulations using multiple global climate models for the past 6,000 years. Although some models show changes, no consistent trend in overall AMOC strength during the mid-to-late Holocene emerges from the ensemble. We interpret this result to suggest no overall change in AMOC, which fits with our assessment of available proxy reconstructions. The decadal variability of the AMOC does not change in ensemble during the mid- and late-Holocene. There are interesting AMOC changes seen in the early Holocene, but their nature depends a lot on which inputs are used to drive the experiment.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 4
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    East Asian summer precipitation in AWI‐CM3: Comparison with observations and CMIP6 models (2023)
    Wiley
    In:  EPIC3International Journal of Climatology, Wiley, pp. 1-16, ISSN: 0899-8418
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-05-08
    Description: Owing to the complicated spatial–temporal characteristics of East Asian precipitation (EAP), climate models have limited skills in simulating the modern Asian climate. This consequently leads to large uncertainties in simulations of the past EAP variation and future projections. Here, we explore the performance of the newly developed Alfred Wegener Institute Climate Model,version 3 (AWI-CM3) in simulating the climatological summer EAP. To test whether the model's skill depends on its atmosphere resolution, we design two AWI-CM3 simulations with different horizontal resolutions. The result shows that both simulations have acceptable performance in simulating the summer mean EAP, generally better than the majority of individual models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). However, for the monthly EAP from June to August, AWI-CM3 exhibits a decayed skill, which is due to the subseasonal movement of the western Pacific subtropical high bias. The higher-resolution AWI-CM3 simulation shows an overall improvement relative to the one performed at a relatively lower resolution in all aspects taken into account regarding the EAP. We conclude that AWI-CM3 is a suitable tool for exploring the EAP for the observational period. Having verified the model's skill for modern climate, we suggest employing the AWI-CM3, especially with high atmosphere resolution, both for applications in paleoclimate studies and future projections.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 5
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    Satellite-observed strong subtropical ocean warming as an early signature of global warming (2023)
    Springer Nature
    In:  EPIC3Communications Earth & Environment, Springer Nature, 4(1), 10 p., pp. 1-10, ISSN: 2662-4435
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-06-02
    Description: Satellite observations covering the last four decades reveal an ocean warming pattern resembling the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. This pattern has therefore been widely interpreted as a manifestation of natural climate variability. Here, we re-examine the observed warming pattern and find that the predominant warming over the subtropical oceans, while mild warming or even cooling over the subpolar ocean, is dynamically consistent with the convergence and divergence of surface water. By comparison of observations, paleo-reconstructions, and model simulations, we propose that the observed warming pattern is likely a short-term transient response to the increased CO2 forcing, which only emerges during the early stage of anthropogenic warming. On centennial to millennial timescales, the subpolar ocean warming is expected to exceed the temporally dominant warming of the subtropical ocean. This delayed but amplified subpolar ocean warming has the potential to reshape the ocean-atmosphere circulation and threaten the stability of marine-terminating ice sheets.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 6
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    Hotspot movement of compound events on the Europe continent (2023)
    Springer Nature
    In:  EPIC3Scientific Reports, Springer Nature, 13(1), pp. 18100-18100, ISSN: 2045-2322
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-04-22
    Description: Climate indices are often used as a climate monitoring tool, allowing us to understand how the frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme weather events are changing over time. Here, based on complex statistical analysis we identify highly correlated significant pairs of compound events at the highest spatial resolution, on a monthly temporal scale across Europe. Continental-scale monthly analysis unleashes information on compound events such as high-risk zones, hotspots, monthly shifts of hotspots and trends, risk exposure to land cover and population, and identification of maximum increasing trends. While there are many studies on single or compound climate extremes there are only a few studies that addresses the relationship between pairs of hazards, the incorporation of bioclimatic indices, the determination of a grid best-fit copula approach, and the outlining relevance of this work of compound event risks with exposures. In this respect, here, using 27-bivariate and 10-trivariate copula models, we show that the different hazard pairs have high combined risks of indices related to radiation, temperature, evapotranspiration, bioclimatic-based indices, such as the universal thermal climate index, wind chill index, and heat index, mainly over the northern and eastern European countries. Furthermore, we show that over the last 7 decades, agricultural and coastal areas are highly exposed to the risks of defined hotspots of compound events. In some of the hotspots of compound events-identified by clusters, there is no monthly shifts of hotspots, leading to higher impacts when compounded. Future work needs to integrate the framework and process to identify other compound pairs.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 7
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    Strong temperature gradients in the ice age North Atlantic Ocean revealed by plankton biogeography (2023)
    Springer Nature
    In:  EPIC3Nature Geoscience, Springer Nature, 16(12), pp. 1114-1119, ISSN: 1752-0894
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-03-13
    Description: The cold Last Glacial Maximum, around 20,000 years ago, provides a useful test case for evaluating whether climate models can simulate climate states distinct from the present. However, because of the indirect and uncertain nature of reconstructions of past environmental variables such as sea surface temperature, such evaluation remains ambiguous. Instead, here we evaluate simulations of Last Glacial Maximum climate by relying on the fundamental macroecological principle of decreasing community similarity with increasing thermal distance. Our analysis of planktonic foraminifera species assemblages from 647 sites reveals that the similarity-decay pattern that we obtain when the simulated ice age seawater temperatures are confronted with species assemblages from that time differs from the modern. This inconsistency between the modern temperature dependence of plankton species turnover and the simulations arises because the simulations show globally rather uniform cooling for the Last Glacial Maximum, whereas the species assemblages indicate stronger cooling in the subpolar North Atlantic. The implied steeper thermal gradient in the North Atlantic is more consistent with climate model simulations with a reduced Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Our approach demonstrates that macroecology can be used to robustly diagnose simulations of past climate and highlights the challenge of correctly resolving the spatial imprint of global change in climate models.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 8
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    Rapid Laurentide Ice Sheet growth preceding the Last Glacial Maximum due to summer snowfall (2024)
    Springer Nature
    In:  EPIC3Nature Geoscience, Springer Nature, pp. 1-10, ISSN: 1752-0894
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-05-06
    Description: There has been extensive research into the nonlinear responses of the Earth system to astronomical forcing during the last glacial cycle. However, the speed and spatial geometry of ice sheet expansion to its largest extent at the Last Glacial Maximum 21 thousand years ago remains uncertain. Here we use an Earth system model with interactive ice sheets to show that distinct initial North American (Laurentide) ice sheets at 38 thousand years ago converge towards a configuration consistent with the Last Glacial Maximum due to feedbacks between atmospheric circulation and ice sheet geometry. Notably, ice advance speed and spatial pattern in our model are controlled by the amount of summer snowfall, which is dependent on moisture transport pathways from the North Atlantic warm pool linked to ice sheet geometry. The consequence of increased summer snowfall on the surface mass balance of the ice sheet is not only the direct increase in accumulation but the indirect reduction in melt through the snow/ice–albedo feedback. These feedbacks provide an effective mechanism for ice growth for a range of initial ice sheet states and may explain the rapid North American ice volume increase during the last ice age and potentially driving growth during previous glacial periods.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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