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  • 1
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    Larval behaviour, dispersal and population connectivity in the deep sea (2020)
    Nature Research
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-02-08
    Description: Ecosystem connectivity is an essential consideration for marine spatial planning of competing interests in the deep sea. Immobile, adult communities are connected through freely floating larvae, depending on new recruits for their health and to adapt to external pressures. We hypothesize that the vertical swimming ability of deep-sea larvae, before they permanently settle at the bottom, is one way larvae can control dispersal. We test this hypothesis with more than 3x108 simulated particles with a range of active swimming behaviours embedded within the currents of a high-resolution ocean model. Despite much stronger horizontal ocean currents, vertical swimming of simulated larvae can have an order of magnitude impact on dispersal. These strong relationships between larval dispersal, pathways, and active swimming demonstrate that lack of data on larval behaviour traits is a serious impediment to modelling deep-sea ecosystem connectivity; this uncertainty greatly limits our ability to develop ecologically coherent marine protected area networks.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 2
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    Resolving and Parameterising the Ocean Mesoscale in Earth System Models (2020)
    Springer
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-02-08
    Description: Purpose of Review: Assessment of the impact of ocean resolution in Earth System models on the mean state, variability, and future projections and discussion of prospects for improved parameterisations to represent the ocean mesoscale. Recent Findings: The majority of centres participating in CMIP6 employ ocean components with resolutions of about 1 degree in their full Earth System models (eddy-parameterising models). In contrast, there are also models submitted to CMIP6 (both DECK and HighResMIP) that employ ocean components of approximately 1/4 degree and 1/10 degree (eddy-present and eddy-rich models). Evidence to date suggests that whether the ocean mesoscale is explicitly represented or parameterised affects not only the mean state of the ocean but also the climate variability and the future climate response, particularly in terms of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and the Southern Ocean. Recent developments in scale-aware parameterisations of the mesoscale are being developed and will be included in future Earth System models. Summary: Although the choice of ocean resolution in Earth System models will always be limited by computational considerations, for the foreseeable future, this choice is likely to affect projections of climate variability and change as well as other aspects of the Earth System. Future Earth System models will be able to choose increased ocean resolution and/or improved parameterisation of processes to capture physical processes with greater fidelity.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: text
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 3
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    Unique southern African terrestrial and oceanic biomes and their relation to steep environmental gradients (2024)
    Springer
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-01-07
    Description: The southern African subcontinent and its surrounding oceans accommodate globally unique ecoregions, characterized by exceptional biodiversity and endemism. This diversity is shaped by extended and steep physical gradients or environmental discontinuities found in both ocean and terrestrial biomes. The region’s biodiversity has historically been the basis of life for indigenous cultures and continues to support countless economic activities, many of them unsustainable, ranging from natural resource exploitation, an extensive fisheries industry and various forms of land use to nature-based tourism. Being at the continent’s southern tip, terrestrial species have limited opportunities for adaptive range shifts under climate change, while warming is occurring at an unprecedented rate. Marine climate change effects are complex, as warming may strengthen thermal stratification, while shifts in regional wind regimes influence ocean currents and the intensity of nutrient-enriching upwelling. The flora and fauna of marine and terrestrial southern African biomes are of vital importance for global biodiversity conservation and carbon sequestration. They thus deserve special attention in further research on the impacts of anthropogenic pressures including climate change. Excellent preconditions exist in the form of long-term data sets of high quality to support scientific advice for future sustainable management of these vulnerable biomes.
    Type: Book chapter , NonPeerReviewed
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    OceanRep: Book chapter
  • 4
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    Robust estimates for the decadal evolution of Agulhas leakage from the 1960s to the 2010s (2022)
    Nature Research
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-02-07
    Description: Agulhas leakage, the transport of warm and salty waters from the Indian Ocean into the South Atlantic, has been suggested to increase under anthropogenic climate change, due to strengthening Southern Hemisphere westerly winds. The resulting enhanced salt transport into the South Atlantic may counteract the projected weakening of the Atlantic overturning circulation through warming and ice melting. Here we combine existing and new observation- and model-based Agulhas leakage estimates to robustly quantify its decadal evolution since the 1960s. We find that Agulhas leakage very likely increased between the mid-1960s and mid-1980s, in agreement with strengthening winds. Our models further suggest that increased leakage was related to enhanced transport outside eddies and coincided with strengthened Atlantic overturning circulation. Yet, it appears unlikely that Agulhas leakage substantially increased since the 1990s, despite continuously strengthening winds. Our results stress the need to better understand decadal leakage variability to detect and predict anthropogenic trends.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: text
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 5
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    The evolution of the North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation since 1980 (2022)
    Nature Research
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-02-07
    Description: The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a key component of the climate through its transport of heat in the North Atlantic Ocean. Decadal changes in the AMOC, whether through internal variability or anthropogenically forced weakening, therefore have wide-ranging impacts. In this Review, we synthesize the understanding of contemporary decadal variability in the AMOC, bringing together evidence from observations, ocean reanalyses, forced models and AMOC proxies. Since 1980, there is evidence for periods of strengthening and weakening, although the magnitudes of change (5–25%) are uncertain. In the subpolar North Atlantic, the AMOC strengthened until the mid-1990s and then weakened until the early 2010s, with some evidence of a strengthening thereafter; these changes are probably linked to buoyancy forcing related to the North Atlantic Oscillation. In the subtropics, there is some evidence of the AMOC strengthening from 2001 to 2005 and strong evidence of a weakening from 2005 to 2014. Such large interannual and decadal variability complicates the detection of ongoing long-term trends, but does not preclude a weakening associated with anthropogenic warming. Research priorities include developing robust and sustainable solutions for the long-term monitoring of the AMOC, observation–modelling collaborations to improve the representation of processes in the North Atlantic and better ways to distinguish anthropogenic weakening from internal variability.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 6
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    Submesoscale flows impact Agulhas leakage in ocean simulations (2021)
    Nature Research
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-02-07
    Description: Agulhas leakage, the warm and salty inflow of Indian Ocean water into the Atlantic Ocean, is of importance for the climate-relevant Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. South of Africa, the eastward turning Agulhas Current sheds Agulhas rings, cyclones and filaments of order 100 km that carry the Indian Ocean water into the Cape Basin and further into the Atlantic. Here, we show that the resolution of submesoscale flows of order 10 km in an ocean model leads to 40 % more Agulhas leakage and more realistic Cape Basin water-masses compared to a parallel non-submesoscale resolving simulation. Moreover, we show that submesoscale flows strengthen shear-edge eddies and in consequence lee cyclones at the northern edge of the Agulhas Current, as well as the leakage pathway in the region of the filaments that takes place outside of mesoscale eddies. This indicates that the increase in leakage can be attributed to stronger Agulhas filaments, when submesoscale flows are resolved.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 7
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    Decadal changes in Atlantic overturning due to the excessive 1990s Labrador Sea convection (2023)
    Nature Research
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-02-07
    Description: Changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) represent a crucial component of Northern Hemisphere climate variability. In modelling studies decadal overturning variability has been attributed to the intensity of deep winter convection in the Labrador Sea. This linkage is challenged by transport observations at sections across the subpolar gyre. Here we report simulations with an eddy-rich ocean model which captures the observed concentration of downwelling in the northeastern Atlantic and the negligible impact of interannual variations in Labrador Sea convection during the last decade. However, the exceptionally cold winters in the Labrador Sea during the first half of the 1990s induced a positive AMOC anomaly of more than 20%, mainly by augmenting the downwelling in the northeastern North Atlantic. The remote effect of excessive Labrador Sea buoyancy forcing is related to rapid spreading of mid-depth density anomalies into the Irminger Sea and their entrainment into the deep boundary current off Greenland.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 8
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    A blueprint for integrating scientific approaches and international communities to assess basin-wide ocean ecosystem status (2023)
    Nature Research
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-02-07
    Description: Ocean ecosystems are at the forefront of the climate and biodiversity crises, yet we lack a unified approach to assess their state and inform sustainable policies. This blueprint is designed around research capabilities and cross-sectoral partnerships. We highlight priorities including integrating basin-scale observation, modelling and genomic approaches to understand Atlantic oceanography and ecosystem connectivity; improving ecosystem mapping; identifying potential tipping points in deep and open ocean ecosystems; understanding compound impacts of multiple stressors including warming, acidification and deoxygenation; enhancing spatial and temporal management and protection. We argue that these goals are best achieved through partnerships with policy-makers and community stakeholders, and promoting research groups from the South Atlantic through investment and engagement. Given the high costs of such research (€800k to €1.7M per expedition and €30–40M for a basin-scale programme), international cooperation and funding are integral to supporting science-led policies to conserve ocean ecosystems that transcend jurisdictional borders.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: text
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 9
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    The Agulhas Current System as an important driver for oceanic and terrestrial climate (2024)
    Springer
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-02-06
    Type: Book chapter , PeerReviewed
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    OceanRep: Book chapter
  • 10
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    Getting the big picture in cross-domain fusion (2022)
    Springer
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-01-04
    Description: A central promise of cross-domain fusion (CDF) is the provision of a “bigger picture” that integrates different disciplines and may span very different levels of detail. We present a number of settings that call for this bigger picture, with a particular focus on how information from several domains can be made easily accessible and visualizable for different stakeholders. We propose harnessing an approach that is now well established in interactive maps, which we refer to as the “Google maps approach” (Google LLC, Mountain View, CA, USA), which combines effective filtering with intuitive user interaction. We expect this approach to be applicable to a range of CDF settings.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
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