Description: Drifting icebergs represent a significant hazard for polar navigation and are able to impact the ocean environment around them. Freshwater flux and the associated cooling from melting icebergs can locally decrease salinity and temperature and thus affect ocean circulation, biological activity, sea ice, and –on larger spatial scales– the whole climate system. However, despite their potential impact, the large-scale operational monitoring of drifting icebergs in sea ice-covered regions is as of today typically restricted to giant icebergs, larger than 18.5 km in length. This is due to difficulties in accurately identifying and following the motion of much smaller features in the polar ocean from space. So far, tracking of smaller icebergs from satellite imagery thus has been limited to open-ocean regions not covered by sea ice. In this study, a novel automated iceberg tracking method, based on a machine learning-approach for automatic iceberg detection, is presented. To demonstrate the applicability of the method, a case study was performed for the Weddell Sea region, Antarctica, using 1213 Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar (ASAR) satellite images acquired between 2002 and 2011. Overall, a subset of 414 icebergs (3134 re-detections in total) with surface areas between 3.4 km² and 3612 km² were investigated with respect to their prevalent drift patterns, size variability, and average disintegration. The majority of the tracked icebergs drifted between 1.3 km and 2679.2 km westward around the Antarctic continent, following the Antarctic Coastal Current (ACoC) and the Weddell Gyre, at an average drift speed of 3.6 ± 7.4 km day⁻¹. The method also allowed us to estimate an average daily disintegration (i.e. iceberg area decrease) rate of ~0.13% (~37% year⁻¹) for all icebergs. Using the sum of all detected individual surface area reductions, we estimate a total iceberg mass decrease of ~683 Gt year⁻¹, which can be freshwater input and/or new ‘child’ icebergs calved from larger icebergs. The extension to an automated long-term tracking method for icebergs is challenging as the iceberg shape can vary significantly due to abrupt disintegration or calving of bergy bits. However, our machine learning approach extended by automatic shape-based tracking capabilities proved to be a reliable alternative for automatic detection and tracking of icebergs, even under the ambiguous SAR background signatures often found in the Southern Ocean. In particular, the method works in the challenging near-coastal environment where the presence of sea ice and coastal ocean dynamics such as surface waves usually pose major obstacles for other approaches.

Description: The Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf, fringing the southern Weddell Sea, is Antarctica's second largest ice shelf. At present, basal melt rates are low due to active dense water formation; however, model projections suggest a drastic increase in the future due to enhanced inflow of open-ocean warm water. Mooring observations from 2014 to 2016 along the eastern flank of the Filchner Trough (76°S) revealed a distinct seasonal cycle with inflow of Warm Deep Water during summer and autumn. Here we present extended time series showing an exceptionally warm and long inflow in 2017, with maximum temperatures exceeding 0.5°C. Warm temperatures persisted throughout winter, associated with a fresh anomaly, which lead to a change in stratification over the shelf, favoring an earlier inflow in the following summer. We suggest that the fresh anomaly developed upstream after anomalous summer sea ice melting and contributed to a shoaling of the shelf break thermocline.

Description: Floating ice shelves are the Achilles’ heel of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. They limit Antarctica’s contribution to global sea level rise, yet they can be rapidly melted from beneath by a warming ocean. At Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf, a decline in sea ice formation may increase basal melt rates and accelerate marine ice sheet mass loss within this century. However, the understanding of this tipping-point behavior largely relies on numerical models. Our new multi-annual observations from five hot-water drilled boreholes through Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf show that since 2015 there has been an intensification of the density-driven ice shelf cavity-wide circulation in response to reinforced wind-driven sea ice formation in the Ronne polynya. Enhanced southerly winds over Ronne Ice Shelf coincide with westward displacements of the Amundsen Sea Low position, connecting the cavity circulation with changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns as a new aspect of the atmosphere-ocean-ice shelf system.

Description: The Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf (FRIS) is characterized by moderate basal melt rates due to the near-freezing waters that dominate the wide southern Weddell Sea continental shelf. We revisited the region in austral summer 2018 with detailed hydrographic and noble gas surveys along FRIS. The FRIS front was characterized by High Salinity Shelf Water (HSSW) in Ronne Depression, Ice Shelf Water (ISW) on its eastern flank, and an inflow of modified Warm Deep Water (mWDW) entering through Central Trough. Filchner Trough was dominated by Ronne HSSW-sourced ISW, likely forced by a recently intensified circulation beneath FRIS due to enhanced sea ice production in the Ronne polynya since 2015. Glacial meltwater fractions and tracer-based water mass dating indicate two separate ISW outflow cores, one hugging the Berkner slope after a two-year travel time, and the other located in the central Filchner Trough following a ∼six year-long transit through the FRIS cavity. Historical measurements indicate the presence of two distinct modes, in which water masses in Filchner Trough were dominated by either Ronne HSSW-derived ISW (Ronne-mode) or more locally derived Berkner-HSSW (Berkner-mode). While the dominance of these modes has alternated on interannual time scales, ocean densities in Filchner Trough have remained remarkably stable since the first surveys in 1980. Indeed, geostrophic velocities indicated outflowing ISW-cores along the trough's western flank and onto Berkner Bank, which suggests that Ronne-ISW preconditions Berkner-HSSW production. The negligible density difference between Berkner- and Ronne-mode waters indicates that each contributes cold dense shelf waters to protect FRIS against inflowing mWDW.

Description: The Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf, fringing the southern Weddell Sea, is Antarctica's second largest ice shelf. At present, basal melt rates are low due to active dense water formation; however, model projections suggest a drastic increase in the future due to enhanced inflow of open-ocean warm water. Mooring observations from 2014 to 2016 along the eastern flank of the Filchner Trough (76°S) revealed a distinct seasonal cycle with inflow if Warm Deep Water during summer and autumn. Here we present extended time series showing an exceptionally warm and long inflow in 2017, with maximum temperatures exceeding 0.5°C. Warm temperatures persisted throughout winter, associated with a fresh anomaly, which lead to a change in stratification over the shelf, favoring an earlier inflow in the following summer. We suggest that the fresh anomaly developed upstream after anomalous summer sea ice melting and contributed to a shoaling of the shelf break thermocline.

Description: The Filchner‐Ronne Ice Shelf (FRIS) is characterized by moderate basal melt rates due to the near‐freezing waters that dominate the wide southern Weddell Sea continental shelf. We revisited the region in austral summer 2018 with detailed hydrographic and noble gas surveys along FRIS. The FRIS front was characterized by High Salinity Shelf Water (HSSW) in Ronne Depression, Ice Shelf Water (ISW) on its eastern flank, and an inflow of modified Warm Deep Water (mWDW) entering through Central Trough. Filchner Trough was dominated by Ronne HSSW‐sourced ISW, likely forced by a recently intensified circulation beneath FRIS due to enhanced sea ice production in the Ronne polynya since 2015. Glacial meltwater fractions and tracer‐based water mass dating indicate two separate ISW outflow cores, one hugging the Berkner slope after a two‐year travel time, and the other located in the central Filchner Trough following a ∼six year‐long transit through the FRIS cavity. Historical measurements indicate the presence of two distinct modes, in which water masses in Filchner Trough were dominated by either Ronne HSSW‐derived ISW (Ronne‐mode) or more locally derived Berkner‐HSSW (Berkner‐mode). While the dominance of these modes has alternated on interannual time scales, ocean densities in Filchner Trough have remained remarkably stable since the first surveys in 1980. Indeed, geostrophic velocities indicated outflowing ISW‐cores along the trough's western flank and onto Berkner Bank, which suggests that Ronne‐ISW preconditions Berkner‐HSSW production. The negligible density difference between Berkner‐ and Ronne‐mode waters indicates that each contributes cold dense shelf waters to protect FRIS against inflowing mWDW.

Description: Plain Language Summary: We visited the largest floating Antarctic ice shelf in the southern Weddell Sea in 2018 with an icebreaker expedition, and measured ocean temperature, salinity, meltwater content, and other parameters in front of the FRIS. We found that the ocean conditions were still dominated by the very cold and dense waters needed to protect the ice shelf from inflowing warm waters from the deep ocean. We compared the 2018 conditions with earlier surveys since the 1980s and concluded that, in spite of climate change and in contrast to other Antarctic regions, the water masses on the southern Weddell Sea shelf remained relatively stable overall. We found that most of the stations we visited near the Filchner Ice Shelf edge were dominated by cold ISW, which forms when water masses interact with the underside of the shelf ice. Our measurements helped improve our understanding regarding the currents and water masses on the southern Weddell Sea continental shelf.

Description: Key Points: Hydrographic status update with the first comprehensive CTD survey along the entire FRIS front since 1995. Strong and stable presence of High Salinity Shelf Water in Ronne Depression over decades. Dominance of Ronne‐sourced Ice Shelf Water in Filchner Trough in 2018 points to intensified sub‐FRIS circulation.

Description: Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research (AWI) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100003207

Description: Tipping of an ice shelf cavity from a cold to a warm state happens when a sustained inflow of warm Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) or a modified variant of it replaces High Salinity Shelf Water (HSSW) and Ice Shelf Water (ISW) in a cold-water cavity. HSSW and ISW with temperatures close to or even below the surface freezing point provide little heat for melting glacial ice. CDW derivatives, however, can cause a substantial multiplication of the ice shelf basal melt rates. The increased melt water release may trigger a positive feedback loop that stabilizes the warm state. Therefore, if the outside circumstances turned back to previous conditions, a reversal from warm to cold would not occur under the same conditions as the switch from cold to warm. A warm tipping has been found possible for the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf (FRIS) cavity in previous studies. In the framework of the EU project TiPACCs, we now reinforce our focus on the conditions which can cause a tipping for the Filchner Ronne and other Antarctic ice shelf cavities. We conducted a series of FESOM-1.4 simulations with different manipulations of the atmospheric forcing variables in order to analyse the common factors of tipping events, opposed to more stable results. We found that for the Filchner Trough region in a warming world, the crucial balance is between the different rates of warming and freshening of (a) the continental shelf waters in front of the ice shelf and (b) the waters transported with the slope current. While other studies identified an uplift of the pycnocline at the continental shelf break as a necessary condition for warm onshore flow, we deem a tipping more likely to hinge on the density loss of the shelf waters. When density on the continental shelf decreases more rapidly than in the slope current at sill depth, the ice shelf cavity is prone to tip. Reversibility of the tipping is possible within three decades under ERA Interim atmospheric forcing (1979-2017), but our study also confirms that hysteresis effects can cause a bistability of warm and cold state in the FRIS cavity under the 20th century HadCM3 forcing.

Description: © The Author(s), 2021. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Janout, M. A., Hellmer, H. H., Hattermann, T., Huhn, O., Sueltenfuss, J., Osterhus, S., Stulic, L., Ryan, S., Schroeder, M., & Kanzow, T. FRIS revisited in 2018: on the circulation and water masses at the Filchner and Ronne Ice Shelves in the Southern Weddell Sea. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 126(6), (2021): e2021JC017269, https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JC017269.

Description: The Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf (FRIS) is characterized by moderate basal melt rates due to the near-freezing waters that dominate the wide southern Weddell Sea continental shelf. We revisited the region in austral summer 2018 with detailed hydrographic and noble gas surveys along FRIS. The FRIS front was characterized by High Salinity Shelf Water (HSSW) in Ronne Depression, Ice Shelf Water (ISW) on its eastern flank, and an inflow of modified Warm Deep Water (mWDW) entering through Central Trough. Filchner Trough was dominated by Ronne HSSW-sourced ISW, likely forced by a recently intensified circulation beneath FRIS due to enhanced sea ice production in the Ronne polynya since 2015. Glacial meltwater fractions and tracer-based water mass dating indicate two separate ISW outflow cores, one hugging the Berkner slope after a two-year travel time, and the other located in the central Filchner Trough following a ∼six year-long transit through the FRIS cavity. Historical measurements indicate the presence of two distinct modes, in which water masses in Filchner Trough were dominated by either Ronne HSSW-derived ISW (Ronne-mode) or more locally derived Berkner-HSSW (Berkner-mode). While the dominance of these modes has alternated on interannual time scales, ocean densities in Filchner Trough have remained remarkably stable since the first surveys in 1980. Indeed, geostrophic velocities indicated outflowing ISW-cores along the trough's western flank and onto Berkner Bank, which suggests that Ronne-ISW preconditions Berkner-HSSW production. The negligible density difference between Berkner- and Ronne-mode waters indicates that each contributes cold dense shelf waters to protect FRIS against inflowing mWDW.

Description: This study used samples and data provided by the Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz-Center for Polar- and Marine Research in Bremerhaven (Grant No. AWI-PS111_01). The authors thank Captain Schwarze and the crew of RV Polarstern for a very successful expedition. We acknowledge support from the EU Horizon 2020 grants 820575 (HHH, SØ) and 821001 (TK, SØ).