Description: A comprehensive understanding of the deep-sea environment and mining’s likely impacts is necessary to assess whether and under what conditions deep-seabed mining operations comply with the International Seabed Authority’s obligations to prevent ‘serious harm’ and ensure the ‘effective protection of the marine environment from harmful effects’ in accordance with the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. A synthesis of the peer-reviewed literature and consultations with deep-seabed mining stakeholders revealed that, despite an increase in deep-sea research, there are few categories of publicly available scientific knowledge comprehensive enough to enable evidence-based decision-making regarding environmental management, including whether to proceed with mining in regions where exploration contracts have been granted by the International Seabed Authority. Further information on deep-sea environmental baselines and mining impacts is critical for this emerging industry. Closing the scientific gaps related to deep-seabed mining is a monumental task that is essential to fulfilling the overarching obligation to prevent serious harm and ensure effective protection, and will require clear direction, substantial resources, and robust coordination and collaboration. Based on the information gathered, we propose a potential high-level road map of activities that could stimulate a much-needed discussion on the steps that should be taken to close key scientific gaps before any exploitation is considered. These steps include the definition of environmental goals and objectives, the establishment of an international research agenda to generate new deep-sea environmental, biological, and ecological information, and the synthesis of data that already exist.

Description: Highlights • Subaqueous spreading occurs on gently inclined surfaces (〈3°). • Gliding planes could be clays or sandy materials undergoing loss of strength. • It is documented on some of the largest marine landslides. • SubSpread Database includes 32 case studies. • Contourite and glaciogenic deposits represent often the slipping surfaces. Abstract Subaqueous spreading, a type of extensional mass transport that is characterized by a ridge and trough morphology, has been documented globally but is poorly understood. Subaqueous spreading is observed on gently inclined surfaces (typically 〈3°) when sediment bodies experience a sudden reduction of shear strength along their basal plane during clay softening or liquefaction of sands or silty sand sediment. Historically, spreading has been associated with very large landslides, but many unknown aspects of these mass movements have yet to be clarified. Does spreading influences the large catastrophic failure? What are the sedimentological and morphological aspects that contribute in initiating this process? These are some of the research questions that spurred the present work. Here, we introduce a database that incorporates information from thirty-two case studies, and use this to provide key insights into the sedimentary and morphological aspects of subaqueous spreading that will assist in the identification of spreading elsewhere. We find that subaqueous spreading is most common along passive glacial margins, but is also observed along active margins. The occurrence of contourites interlayered with glaciogenic deposits is, in most cases, associated with landslides (or landslide complexes) with spreading morphology. The database shows that seismic loading is commonly suggested to be the dominant trigger mechanism, although more geotechnical observations and modelling analysis would be needed to support this conclusion. We compare subaqueous spreading with terrestrial spreading, in particular to earthquake-related lateral spreading and clay landslides. We find that subaqueous spreading shares the same driving processes and potentially also some of the trigger mechanisms that are associated with the terrestrial spreading cases. Future work will be required to address the association between spreading and its occurrence on some of the largest landslides on Earth, its development mechanism, and its potential hazard implications.

Description: Highlights • Climate engineering presents a novel challenge for global environmental governance • Institutional and discursive structures co-shape global environmental governance • A lack of joint analyses of both structures impedes understanding of governance emergence • A joint neo-institutionalist and post-structuralist analysis addresses this gap • Varying structures shape differing climate engineering governance decisions in several forums Abstract The Anthropocene is giving rise to novel challenges for global environmental governance. The barriers and opportunities shaping the ways in which some of these complex environmental challenges become governable on the global level are of increasing academic and practical relevance. In this article, we bring neo-institutionalist and post-structuralist perspectives together in an innovative framework to analyse how both institutional and discursive structures together bound and shape the global governance opportunities which become thinkable and practicable in the face of new global environmental challenges. We apply this framework to explore how governance of climate engineering – large scale, deliberate invention into the global climate system – is being shaped by discursive and institutional structures in three international forums: The London Convention and its Protocol, the Convention on Biological Diversity, and the United Nations Environment Assembly. We illustrate that the ‘degree of fit’ between discursive and institutional structures made climate engineering (un)governable in each of these forums. Furthermore, we find that the ‘type of fit’ set the discursive and institutional conditions of possibility for what type of governance emerged in each of these cases. Based on our findings, we critically discuss the implications for the future governance of climate engineering at the global level.

Description: Highlights • Approaches for CO2 leakage detection, attribution and quantification monitoring exist. • Many approaches cover multiple monitoring tasks simultaneously. • Sonars and chemical sensors on ships or AUVs can cover large areas. • Newer, more specific technologies can detect, verify and quantify smaller, localised leaks. Environmental monitoring of offshore Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) complexes requires robust methodologies and cost-effective tools to detect, attribute and quantify CO2 leakage in the unlikely event it occurs from a sub-seafloor reservoir. Various approaches can be utilised for environmental CCS monitoring, but their capabilities are often undemonstrated and more detailed monitoring strategies need to be developed. We tested and compared different approaches in an offshore setting using a CO2 release experiment conducted at 120 m water depth in the Central North Sea. Tests were carried out over a range of CO2 injection rates (6 - 143 kg d−1) comparable to emission rates observed from abandoned wells. Here, we discuss the benefits and challenges of the tested approaches and compare their relative cost, temporal and spatial resolution, technology readiness level and sensitivity to leakage. The individual approaches demonstrate a high level of sensitivity and certainty and cover a wide range of operational requirements. Additionally, we refer to a set of generic requirements for site-specific baseline surveys that will aid in the interpretation of the results. Critically, we show that the capability of most techniques to detect and quantify leakage exceeds the currently existing legal requirements.

Description: Microbial degradation of organic carbon in marine sediments is a key driver of global element cycles on multiple time scales. However, it is not known to what depth microorganisms alter organic carbon in marine sediments or how microbial rates of organic carbon processing change with depth, and thus time since burial, on a global scale. To better understand the connection between the dynamic carbon cycle and life’s limits in the deep subsurface, we have combined a number of global data sets with a reaction transport model (RTM) describing first, organic carbon degradation in marine sediments deposited throughout the Quaternary Period and second, a bioenergetic model for microbial activity. The RTM is applied globally, recognizing three distinct depositional environments – continental shelf, margin and abyssal zones. The results include the masses of particulate organic carbon, POC, stored in three sediment-depth layers: bioturbated Holocene (1.7 × 10^17 g C), non-bioturbated Holocene (2.6 × 10^18 g C) and Pleistocene (1.4 × 1020 g C) sediments. The global depth-integrated rates of POC degradation have been determined to be 6.8 × 10^13, 1.2 × 10^14 and 1.2 × 10^14 g C yr-1 for the same three layers, respectively. A number of maps depicting the distribution of POC, as well as the fraction that has been degraded have also been generated. Using POC degradation as a proxy for microbial catabolic activity, total heterotrophic processing of POC throughout the Quaternary is estimated to be between 10^-11 – 10^-6 g C cm-3 yr-1, depending on the time since deposition and location. Bioenergetic modeling reveals that laboratory-determined microbial maintenance powers are poor predictors of sediment biomass concentration, but that cell concentrations in marine sediments can be accurately predicted by combining bioenergetic models with the rates of POC degradation determined in this study. Our model can be used to quantitatively describe both the carbon cycle and microbial activity on a global scale for marine sediments less than 2.59 million years old.

Description: Highlights • Foraminifera responded faster to environmental perturbations than macroorganisms. • Population densities doubled and Asterigerinata mamilla bloomed under stronger flow. • Excess of threshold values and changes to new ecosystems induce acme occurrences. Abstract Benthic foraminifera are deemed sensitive indicators of environmental conditions. Triggers and magnitudes of faunal response to environmental changes are yet poorly constrained. Benthic foraminiferal faunas were monitored annually at Ria Formosa (Algarve, Portugal) coastal lagoon since 2013. Distinct environmental changes were recognised during the monitoring period. The relocation of a tidal inlet in winter 2015 effected faster flushing, higher tidal levels, and stronger currents in the Esteiro do Ancão tidal channel. The epibenthic foraminiferal species Asterigerinata mamilla increased in abundance and the population densities of the whole fauna were double as high as before inlet relocation. Enhanced sediment redeposition was recorded and extensive polychaete colonies successively replaced firmground patches with oysters. The standing stock of the foraminiferal fauna declined in the next year due to food impoverishment, while the high hydraulic energy levels and high percentages of Asterigerinata mamilla maintained. Benthic foraminifera responded much faster to environmental perturbations than macroorganisms identifying them as powerful proxies in environmental studies.

Description: Forecasting and early warning systems are important investments to protect lives, properties and livelihood. While early warning systems are frequently used to predict the magnitude, location and timing of potentially damaging events, these systems rarely provide impact estimates, such as the expected amount and distribution of physical damage, human consequences, disruption of services or financial loss. Complementing early warning systems with impact forecasts has a two‐fold advantage: it would provide decision makers with richer information to take informed decisions about emergency measures, and focus the attention of different disciplines on a common target. This would allow capitalizing on synergies between different disciplines and boosting the development of multi‐hazard early warning systems. This review discusses the state‐of‐the‐art in impact forecasting for a wide range of natural hazards. We outline the added value of impact‐based warnings compared to hazard forecasting for the emergency phase, indicate challenges and pitfalls, and synthesize the review results across hazard types most relevant for Europe. Plain language summary Forecasting and early warning systems are important investments to protect lives, properties and livelihood. While such systems are frequently used to predict the magnitude, location and timing of potentially damaging events, they rarely provide impact estimates, such as the expected physical damage, human consequences, disruption of services or financial loss. Extending hazard forecast systems to include impact estimates promises many benefits for the emergency phase, for instance, for organising evacuations. We review and compare the state‐of‐the‐art of impact forcasting across a wide range of natural hazards, and outline opportunities and key challenges for research and development of impact forecasting.

Description: Accurately predicting future ocean acidification (OA) conditions is crucial for advancing OA research at regional and global scales, and guiding society's mitigation and adaptation efforts. This study presents a new model-data fusion product covering 10 global surface OA indicators based on 14 Earth System Models (ESMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), along with three recent observational ocean carbon data products. The indicators include fugacity of carbon dioxide, pH on total scale, total hydrogen ion content, free hydrogen ion content, carbonate ion content, aragonite saturation state, calcite saturation state, Revelle Factor, total dissolved inorganic carbon content, and total alkalinity content. The evolution of these OA indicators is presented on a global surface ocean 1° × 1° grid as decadal averages every 10 years from preindustrial conditions (1750), through historical conditions (1850–2010), and to five future Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (2020–2100): SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5. These OA trajectories represent an improvement over previous OA data products with respect to data quantity, spatial and temporal coverage, diversity of the underlying data and model simulations, and the provided SSPs. The generated data product offers a state-of-the-art research and management tool for the 21st century under the combined stressors of global climate change and ocean acidification. The gridded data product is available in NetCDF at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Centers for Environmental Information: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/oceans/ncei/ocads/metadata/0259391.html, and global maps of these indicators are available in jpeg at: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/ocean-carbon-acidification-data-system/synthesis/surface-oa-indicators.html. Key Points: - This study presents the evolution of 10 ocean acidification (OA) indicators in the global surface ocean from 1750 to 2100 - By leveraging 14 Earth System Models (ESMs) and the latest observational data, it represents a significant advancement in OA projections - This inter-model comparison effort showcases the overall agreements among different ESMs in projecting surface ocean carbon variables

Description: Highlights • More diverse non-native taxa generally include more economically costly species. • Chordates, nematodes and pathogens are among significantly over-represented taxa. • Monetary cost magnitude links positively to numbers of costly invasive species. • Costs are biased towards a few ‘hyper-costly’ invasive species groups. • Future invasion rates will continue to harbour new economically costly species. Abstract A dominant syndrome of the Anthropocene is the rapid worldwide spread of invasive species with devastating environmental and socio-economic impacts. However, the dynamics underlying the impacts of biological invasions remain contested. A hypothesis posits that the richness of impactful invasive species increases proportionally with the richness of non-native species more generally. A competing hypothesis suggests that certain species features disproportionately enhance the chances of non-native species becoming impactful, causing invasive species to arise disproportionately relative to the numbers of non-native species. We test whether invasive species with reported monetary costs reflect global numbers of established non-native species among phyla, classes, and families. Our results reveal that numbers of invasive species with economic costs largely reflect non-native species richness among taxa (i.e., in 96 % of families). However, a few costly taxa were over- and under-represented, and their composition differed among environments and regions. Chordates, nematodes, and pathogenic groups tended to be the most over-represented phyla with reported monetary costs, with mammals, insects, fungi, roundworms, and medically-important microorganisms being over-represented classes. Numbers of costly invasive species increased significantly with non-native richness per taxon, while monetary cost magnitudes at the family level were also significantly related to costly invasive species richness. Costs were biased towards a few ‘hyper-costly’ taxa (such as termites, mosquitoes, cats, weevils, rodents, ants, and asters). Ordination analysis revealed significant dissimilarity between non-native and costly invasive taxon assemblages. These results highlight taxonomic groups which harbour disproportionately high numbers of costly invasive species and monetary cost magnitudes. Collectively, our findings support prevention of arrival and containment of spread of non-native species as a whole through effective strategies for mitigation of the rapidly amplifying impacts of invasive species. Yet, the hyper- costly taxa identified here should receive greater focus from managers to reduce impacts of current invasive species.

Description: Ocean deoxygenation is a threat to marine ecosystems. We evaluated the potential of two ocean intervention technologies, i.e. “artificial downwelling (AD)” and “artificial upwelling (AU)”, for remedying the expansion of Oxygen Deficient Zones (ODZs). The model‐based assessment simulated AD and AU implementations for 80 years along the eastern Pacific ODZ. When AD was simulated by pumping surface seawater to the 178 ~ 457 m depth range of the ODZ, vertically integrated oxygen increased by up to 4.5% in the deployment region. Pumping water from 457 m depth to the surface (i.e. AU), where it can equilibrate with the atmosphere, increased the vertically integrated oxygen by 1.03%. However, both simulated AD and AU increased biological production via enhanced nutrient supply to the sea surface, resulting in enhanced export production and subsequent aerobic remineralization also outside of the actual implementation region, and an ultimate net decline of global oceanic oxygen.