Description: While environmental science, and ecology in particular, is working to provide better understanding to base sustainable decisions on, the way scientific understanding is developed can at times be detrimental to this cause. Locked-in debates are often unnecessarily polarised and can compromise any common goals of the opposing camps. The present paper is inspired by a resolved debate from an unrelated field of psychology where Nobel laureate David Kahneman and Garry Klein turned what seemed to be a locked-in debate into a constructive process for their fields. The present paper is also motivated by previous discourses regarding the role of thresholds in natural systems for management and governance, but its scope of analysis targets the scientific process within complex social-ecological systems in general. We identified four features of environmental science that appear to predispose for locked-in debates: (1) The strongly context-dependent behaviour of ecological systems. (2) The dominant role of single hypothesis testing. (3) The high prominence given to theory demonstration compared investigation. (4) The effect of urgent demands to inform and steer policy. This fertile ground is further cultivated by human psychological aspects as well as the structure of funding and publication systems.

Description: The ²³⁴Th-²³⁸U radioactive pair has been extensively used to evaluate the efficiency with which photosyntetically fixed carbon is exported from the surface ocean by means of the biological pump since the 90's. The seminal work of Buesseler et al. (1992) proposed that particulate organic carbon (POC) flux can be indirectly calculated from ²³⁴Th distributions if the ratio of POC to ²³⁴Th measured on sinking particles (POC:²³⁴Th) at the desired export depth is known. Since then, a huge amount of ²³⁴Th depth profiles have been collected using a variety of sampling instruments and strategies that have changed along years. This is a global oceanic compilation of ²³⁴Th measurements, that collects results from innumerable researchers and laboratories over a period exceeding 50 years. The present compilation is made of a total 223 datasets: 214 from studies published either in articles in referred journals, PhD thesis or repositories, and 9 unpublished datasets. Including measurements from JGOFS, VERTIGO and GEOTRACES programs, with sampling from approximately 5000 locations spanning all the oceans. The compilation includes total ²³⁴Th profiles, dissolved and particulate ²³⁴Th concentrations, and POC:²³⁴Th ratios (both from pumps and sediment traps) for two sizes classes (1-53 μm and 〈 53 μm) when available. Appropriate metadata have been included, including geographic location, date, and sample depth, among others. When available, we also include water temperature, salinity, ²³⁸U data and particulate organic nitrogen data. Data sources and methods information (including ²³⁸U and ²³⁴Th) are also detailed along with valuable information for future data analysis such as bloom stage and steady/non-steady state conditions at the sampling moment. This undertaking is a treasure of data to understand and quantify how oceanic carbon cycle functions and how it will change in future. The compilation can be downloaded in three different ways: 1) A single merged file including all the individual excel files. This option can be accessed under "Other version: More than 50 years of Th-234 data: a comprehensive global oceanic compilation (single xlsx file)". 2) A summary table that includes details from cruise, sampling dates, techniques applied, authors and DOI of the compiled ²³⁴Th data, among others, each line corresponds to a specific dataset. The table can be accessed by clicking ""View dataset as HTML" and downloaded in "Download dataset as tab-delimited text". 3) Individual Excel files for each dataset can be manually chosen from the summary table, corresponding to the complete ²³⁴Th dataset and metadata from a specific publication or program. This option is available by clicking "View dataset as HTML". Furthermore, all files referred to can be downloaded in one go as ZIP or TAR.

Description: This paper provides a comprehensive description of the newest version of the Dynamic Global Vegetation Model with managed Land, LPJmL4. This model simulates – internally consistently – the growth and productivity of both natural and agricultural vegetation as coherently linked through their water, carbon, and energy fluxes. These features render LPJmL4 suitable for assessing a broad range of feedbacks within and impacts upon the terrestrial biosphere as increasingly shaped by human activities such as climate change and land use change. Here we describe the core model structure, including recently developed modules now unified in LPJmL4. Thereby, we also review LPJmL model developments and evaluations in the field of permafrost, human and ecological water demand, and improved representation of crop types. We summarize and discuss LPJmL model applications dealing with the impacts of historical and future environmental change on the terrestrial biosphere at regional and global scale and provide a comprehensive overview of LPJmL publications since the first model description in 2007. To demonstrate the main features of the LPJmL4 model, we display reference simulation results for key processes such as the current global distribution of natural and managed ecosystems, their productivities, and associated water fluxes. A thorough evaluation of the model is provided in a companion paper. By making the model source code freely available at https://gitlab.pik-potsdam.de/lpjml/LPJmL, we hope to stimulate the application and further development of LPJmL4 across scientific communities in support of major activities such as the IPCC and SDG process.

Description: The dynamic global vegetation model LPJmL4 is a process-based model that simulates climate and land use change impacts on the terrestrial biosphere, agricultural production, and the water and carbon cycle. Different versions of the model have been developed and applied to evaluate the role of natural and managed ecosystems in the Earth system and the potential impacts of global environmental change. A comprehensive model description of the new model version, LPJmL4, is provided in a companion paper (Schaphoff et al., 2018c). Here, we provide a full picture of the model performance, going beyond standard benchmark procedures and give hints on the strengths and shortcomings of the model to identify the need for further model improvement. Specifically, we evaluate LPJmL4 against various datasets from in situ measurement sites, satellite observations, and agricultural yield statistics. We apply a range of metrics to evaluate the quality of the model to simulate stocks and flows of carbon and water in natural and managed ecosystems at different temporal and spatial scales. We show that an advanced phenology scheme improves the simulation of seasonal fluctuations in the atmospheric CO2 concentration, while the permafrost scheme improves estimates of carbon stocks. The full LPJmL4 code including the new developments will be supplied open source through https://gitlab.pik-potsdam.de/lpjml/LPJmL. We hope that this will lead to new model developments and applications that improve the model performance and possibly build up a new understanding of the terrestrial biosphere.

Description: The calving of A-68, the 5,800-km2, 1-trillion-ton iceberg shed from the Larsen C Ice Shelf in July 2017, is one of over 10 significant ice-shelf loss events in the past few decades resulting from rapid warming around the Antarctic Peninsula. The rapid thinning, retreat, and collapse of ice shelves along the Antarctic Peninsula are harbingers of warming effects around the entire continent. Ice shelves cover more than 1.5 million km2 and fringe 75% of Antarctica's coastline, delineating the primary connections between the Antarctic continent, the continental ice, and the Southern Ocean. Changes in Antarctic ice shelves bring dramatic and large-scale modifications to Southern Ocean ecosystems and continental ice movements, with global-scale implications. The thinning and rate of future ice-shelf demise is notoriously unpredictable, but models suggest increased shelf-melt and calving will become more common. To date, little is known about sub-ice-shelf ecosystems, and our understanding of ecosystem change following collapse and calving is predominantly based on responsive science once collapses have occurred. In this review, we outline what is known about (a) ice-shelf melt, volume loss, retreat, and calving, (b) ice-shelf-associated ecosystems through sub-ice, sediment-core, and pre-collapse and post-collapse studies, and (c) ecological responses in pelagic, sympagic, and benthic ecosystems. We then discuss major knowledge gaps and how science might address these gaps. This article is categorized under: Climate, Ecology, and Conservation 〉 Modeling Species and Community Interactions.

Description: There is a growing need for past weather and climate data to support science and decision-making. This paper describes the compilation and the construction of a global multivariable (air temperature, pressure, precipitation sum, number of precipitation days) monthly instrumental climate database that encompasses a substantial body of the known early instrumental time series. The dataset contains series compiled from existing databases that start before 1890 (though continuing to the present) as well as a large amount of newly rescued data. All series underwent a quality control procedure and subdaily series were processed to monthly mean values. An inventory was compiled, and the collection was deduplicated based on coordinates and mutual correlations. The data are provided in a common format accompanied by the inventory. The collection totals 12452 meteorological records in 118 countries. The data has been merged from 18250 original data files. The data can be used for climate reconstructions and analyses. It is the most comprehensive global monthly climate data set for the preindustrial period.

Description: Present day system Earth research utilizes the tool ‘Scientific Drilling’ to access samples and to monitor deep Earth processes that cannot be tackled by other scientific means. Unlike most laboratory experiments or computer modelling, drilling projects are massive field endeavours requiring intense collaboration of researchers with engineers and service providers. In the framework of the International Continental Scientific Drilling Program, ICDP, more than seventy drilling projects have been conducted, from multiyear big research programs to short, smallscale deployments such as lake drilling projects. ICDP has supported these projects not only through grants covering field-related costs, but also through a variety of scientific-technical services and support, as well as active help in data management, outreach and publication. These services are described in this booklet. Due to its instructional character, we call it the ICDP Primer.

Description: This brochure is designed for scientists and engineers of upcoming drilling projects and explains the key steps and important challenges in planning and executing continental scientific drilling.

Description: Global climate change affects marine fish through drivers such as ocean warming, acidification and oxygen depletion, causing changes in marine ecosystems and socioeconomic impacts. While experimental and observational results can inform about anticipated effects of different drivers, linking between these results and ecosystem-level changes requires quantitative integration of physiological and ecological processes into models to advance research and inform management. We give an overview of important physiological and ecological processes affected by environmental drivers. We then provide a review of available modelling approaches for marine fish, analysing their capacities for process-based integration of environmental drivers. Building on this, we propose approaches to advance important research questions. Examples of integration of environmental drivers exist for each model class. Recent extensions of modelling frameworks increase the potential for including detailed mechanisms and improving model projections. Experimental results on energy allocation, behaviour and physiological limitations will advance the understanding of organism-level trade-offs and thresholds in response to multiple drivers. More explicit representation of life cycles and biological traits can improve description of population dynamics and adaptation, and data on food web topology and feeding interactions help to detail the conditions for possible regime shifts. Identification of relevant processes will also benefit the coupling of different models to investigate spatial–temporal changes in stock productivity and integrated responses of social–ecological systems. Thus, a more process-informed foundation for models will promote the integration of experimental and observational results and increase the potential for model-based extrapolations into a future under changing environmental conditions.

Description: The current policy and goals aimed to conserve biodiversity and manage biodiversity change are often formulated at the global scale. At smaller scales however, biodiversity change is more nuanced leading to a plethora of trends in different metrics of alpha diversity and temporal turnover. Therefore, large-scale policy targets do not translate easily into local to regional management decisions for biodiversity. Using long-term monitoring data from the Wadden Sea (Southern North Sea), joining structural equation models and general dissimilarity models enabled a better overview of the drivers of biodiversity change. Few commonalities emerged as birds, fish, macroinvertebrates, and phytoplankton differed in their response to certain drivers of change. These differences were additionally dependent upon the biodiversity aspect in question and which environmental data were recorded in each monitoring program. No single biodiversity metric or model sufficed to capture all ongoing change, which requires an explicitly multivariate approaches to biodiversity assessment in local ecosystem management.