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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2021-02-01
    Description: The aim of the present work was to unravel which environmental drivers govern the dynamics of toxic dinoflagellate abundance as well as their associated paralytic shellfish toxins (PSTs), diarrhetic shellfish toxins (DSTs) and pectenotoxin-2 (PTX2) in Ambon Bay, Eastern Indonesia. Weather, biological and physicochemical parameters were investigated weekly over a 7-month period. Both PSTs and PTX2 were detected at low levels, yet they persisted throughout the research. Meanwhile, DSTs were absent. A strong correlation was found between total particulate PST and Gymnodinium catenatum cell abundance, implying that this species was the main producer of this toxin. PTX2 was positively correlated with Dinophysis miles cell abundance. Vertical mixing, tidal elevation and irradiance attenuation were the main environmental factors that regulated both toxins and cell abundances, while nutrients showed only weak correlations. The present study indicates that dinoflagellate toxins form a potential environmental, economic and health risk in this Eastern Indonesian bay.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2021-07-23
    Description: Against the background of a drastically increased demand of marine proteins, off-bottom, bivalve aquaculture, provides significant potential for production growth when moved into more energetic marine waters. Hence, research, industry and politics are currently proposing the development of new offshore sites. The highly energetic conditions at these sites present a challenging environment for bivalve aquaculture. In this work, physical experiments of suspended bivalves provide new knowledge on the commonly used design parameters: the drag and inertia coefficients. Live bivalves and manufactured surrogate models at a 1:1 scale were tested in a towing tank as well as under waves. The drag coefficient of live blue mussels was determined to be Cd = 1.6 for Reynolds numbers between 2.3 × 104 and 1.4 × 105. The inertia coefficient obtained from the wave tests was Cm = 2.1 for Keulegan Carpenter numbers KC 〈 10. In a pursuit to better understand the differences between live mussels and surrogates in laboratory conditions, the analysis revealed that appropriate surrogates can be identified. A method to determine the characteristic diameter of mussel dropper lines is suggested. The results facilitate the future design of aquaculture systems in high-energy environments and allow for an integration into numerical models.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2021-08-23
    Description: Lake eutrophication is a pervasive problem globally, particularly serious in agricultural and densely pop- ulated areas. Whenever nutrients nitrogen and phosphorus do not limit phytoplankton growth directly, high growth rates will rapidly lead to biomass increases causing self-shading and light-limitation, and eventually CO2 depletion. The paradigm of phytoplankton limitation by nutrients and light is so perva- sively established, that the lack of nutrient limitation is ordinarily interpreted as sufficient evidence for the condition of light limitation, without considering the possibility of limitation by inorganic carbon. Here, we firstly evaluated how frequently CO2 undersaturation occurs in a set of eutrophic lakes in the Pampa plains. Our results confirm that conditions of CO2 undersaturation develop much more frequently (yearly 34%, summer 44%) in these agriculturally impacted lakes than in deep, temperate lakes in forested watersheds. Secondly, we used Generalized Additive Models to fit trends in CO2 concentration considering three drivers: total incident irradiance, chlorophyll a concentration, and lake depth; in eight multi-year datasets from eutrophic lakes from Europe, North and South America, Asia and New Zealand. CO2 deple- tion was more often observed at high irradiance levels, and shallow water. CO2 depletion also occurred at high chlorophyll concentration. Finally, we identified occurrences of light- and carbon-limitation at the whole-lake scale. The different responses of chlorophyll a and CO2 allowed us to develop criteria for detecting conditions of CO2 limitation. For the first time, we pro- vided whole-lake evidence of carbon limitation of phytoplankton biomass. CO2 increases and eutrophi- cation represent two major and converging environmental problems that have additive and contrasting effects, promoting phytoplankton, and also leading to carbon depletion. Their interactions deserve further exploration and imaginative approaches to deal with their effects.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2021-10-20
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2021-07-07
    Description: Understanding the complexity of future volcanic impacts that can be potentially induced by the large variability of volcanic hazards and the multiple dimensions of vulnerability of the increasingly interdependent and interconnected societies, requires an in-depth analysis of past events. A structured and inclusive post-event impact assessment framework is proposed and applied for the evaluation of damage and disruption on critical infrastructures caused by the eruption of the Cordón Caulle volcano (Chile) in 2011–2012. This framework is built on the forensic analysis of disasters combined with the techniques of the root cause analysis that converge in a bow-tie tool. It consists of a fault tree connected to subsequent event trees to describe the causal order of impacts. Considering the physical and systemic dimensions of vulnerability, four orders of impact have been identified: i) the first order refers to the physical damage or the primary impact on a component of the critical infrastructure; ii) the second order refers to the loss of functionality in the system due to a physical damage on key components of the system; iii) the third order refers to the systemic impact due to the interdependency and connectivity among different critical infrastructures; and iv) a higher order is related to the consequences on the main economic sectors and to social disruption that can activate an overall damage to the economy of the country or countries affected. Our study in the Argentinian Patagonia shows that the long-lasting impact of the 2011–2012 Cordón Caulle eruption is mostly due to a secondary hazard (i.e., wind remobilisation of ash), which exacerbated the primary impact affecting significantly larger areas and for longer time with respect to primary tephra deposition. In addition, systemic vulnerability, particularly the intrinsic dependencies within and among systems, played a major role in the cascading impact of the analysed communities.
    Description: This study was supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation (200021–163152).
    Description: Published
    Description: 645945
    Description: 6V. Pericolosità vulcanica e contributi alla stima del rischio
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: impact assessment ; volcanic eruptions ; forensic analysis ; systemic vulnerability ; cascading effects ; bow-tie approach ; 04.08. Volcanology ; 05.08. Risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 6
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    PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
    In:  EPIC3Progress In Oceanography, PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD, 185, ISSN: 0079-6611
    Publication Date: 2020-06-05
    Description: The Southern Ocean near the Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) is strongly affected by climate change resulting in warmer air temperature, accompanied with reduced sea ice coverage, increased sea water temperature and potential changes in the abundances of two key grazer species Salpa thompsoni (salp) and Euphausia superba (Antarctic krill). While salp abundance is hypothesized to increase, krill abundance is hypothesized to decline with dramatic consequences for the entire food web of the Southern Ocean. A better understanding of the biotic interaction between krill and salps and their population dynamics is thus crucial. However, the life cycle of salps is complicated and barely understood. Therefore, we have developed an individual-based model describing the whole life cycle to better understand the population dynamics of salps and the conditions for blooms. The model has been used to explore if and under what conditions the empirical pattern of large variability in observed salp abundances at the WAP, generated by the long-term data of the US Antarctic Marine Living Resources Program (AMLR) can emerge from a small seeding population. The model reproduced this empirical pattern if daily growth rates of oozoids were higher than previously reported for the WAP (mean growth rate for oozoids ~ 1 mm d−1) and if growth rates of blastozooids were lower (mean growth rate ~ 0.2 mm d−1). The model suggests that a prerequisite for local salp blooms requires a small founding population in early spring. With climate change it has been suggested that more frequent and earlier transport of salps into the WAP or winter survival will occur. Hence, the risk of salp blooms in the WAP is likely to substantially increase. These findings highlight the importance for an improved quantitative understanding of how primary production and the southward advection of salps will be impacted by climate change.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2021-05-07
    Description: Inundation maps are a fundamental tool for coastal risk management and in particular for designing evacuation maps and evacuation planning. These in turn are a necessary component of the tsunami warning systems’ last-mile. In Italy inundation maps are informed by a probabilistic tsunami hazard model. Based on a given level of acceptable risk, Italian authorities in charge for this task recommended to consider, as design hazard intensity, the average return period of 2500 years and the 84th percentile of the hazard model uncertainty. An available, regional-scale tsunami hazard model was used that covers the entire Italian coastline. Safety factors based on analysis of run-up variability and an empirical coastal dissipation law on a digital terrain model (DTM) were applied to convert the regional hazard into the design run-up and the corresponding evacuation maps with a GIS-based approach. Since the regional hazard cannot fully capture the local-scale variability, this simplified and conservative approach is considered a viable and feasible practice to inform local coastal risk management in the absence of high-resolution hazard models. The present work is a first attempt to quantify the uncertainty stemming from such procedure. We compare the GIS-based inundation maps informed by a regional model with those obtained from a local high-resolution hazard model. Two locations on the coast of eastern Sicily were considered, and the local hazard was addressed with the same seismic model as the regional one, but using a higher-resolution DTM and massive numerical inundation calculations with the GPU-based Tsunami-HySEA nonlinear shallow water code. This study shows that the GIS-based inundation maps used for planning deal conservatively with potential hazard underestimation at the local scale, stemming from typically unmodeled uncertainties in the numerical source and tsunami evolution models. The GIS-based maps used for planning fall within the estimated “error-bar” due to such uncertainties. The analysis also demonstrates the need to develop local assessments to serve very specific risk mitigation actions to reduce the uncertainty. More in general, the presented case-studies highlight the importance to explore ways of dealing with uncertainty hidden within the high-resolution numerical inundation models, e.g., related to the crude parameterization of the bottom friction, or the inaccuracy of the DTM.
    Description: Published
    Description: 628061
    Description: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: tsunamis ; inundation maps ; early warning ; probabilistic hazard ; numerical modeling ; Italy
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2021-09-07
    Description: New Zealand has a large exclusive economic zone (EEZ) of which the area between the 30 and 50 m bathymetric zone offers the most prospects for shellfish production. Only 0.3% of this zone would be required to increase New Zealand’s shellfish production by 150,000 t. The Enabling Open Ocean Aquaculture Program, funded by the New Zealand Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment, is a collaboration aiming to develop technologies that will enable the extension of aquaculture into New Zealand’s harsh and challenging open ocean conditions, and facilitate adaptation to the escalating effects of climate change in inner shore environments. New Zealand has started expanding aquaculture into exposed environments, allowing farm expansion to meet increasing demand for aquaculture products but also enabling ventures into new aquatic products. Expansion into offshore developments is in direct response to mounting stakeholder interaction in inshore coastal areas. This document presents a brief overview of the potential zones for open ocean aquaculture, the influence of climate change, and two potential shellfish operational systems that may facilitate the expansion of shellfish aquaculture onto New Zealand’s exposed ocean sites.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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