Description: Forecasting and early warning systems are important investments to protect lives, properties and livelihood. While early warning systems are frequently used to predict the magnitude, location and timing of potentially damaging events, these systems rarely provide impact estimates, such as the expected amount and distribution of physical damage, human consequences, disruption of services or financial loss. Complementing early warning systems with impact forecasts has a two‐fold advantage: it would provide decision makers with richer information to take informed decisions about emergency measures, and focus the attention of different disciplines on a common target. This would allow capitalizing on synergies between different disciplines and boosting the development of multi‐hazard early warning systems. This review discusses the state‐of‐the‐art in impact forecasting for a wide range of natural hazards. We outline the added value of impact‐based warnings compared to hazard forecasting for the emergency phase, indicate challenges and pitfalls, and synthesize the review results across hazard types most relevant for Europe. Plain language summary Forecasting and early warning systems are important investments to protect lives, properties and livelihood. While such systems are frequently used to predict the magnitude, location and timing of potentially damaging events, they rarely provide impact estimates, such as the expected physical damage, human consequences, disruption of services or financial loss. Extending hazard forecast systems to include impact estimates promises many benefits for the emergency phase, for instance, for organising evacuations. We review and compare the state‐of‐the‐art of impact forcasting across a wide range of natural hazards, and outline opportunities and key challenges for research and development of impact forecasting.

Description: Ocean deoxygenation is a threat to marine ecosystems. We evaluated the potential of two ocean intervention technologies, i.e. “artificial downwelling (AD)” and “artificial upwelling (AU)”, for remedying the expansion of Oxygen Deficient Zones (ODZs). The model‐based assessment simulated AD and AU implementations for 80 years along the eastern Pacific ODZ. When AD was simulated by pumping surface seawater to the 178 ~ 457 m depth range of the ODZ, vertically integrated oxygen increased by up to 4.5% in the deployment region. Pumping water from 457 m depth to the surface (i.e. AU), where it can equilibrate with the atmosphere, increased the vertically integrated oxygen by 1.03%. However, both simulated AD and AU increased biological production via enhanced nutrient supply to the sea surface, resulting in enhanced export production and subsequent aerobic remineralization also outside of the actual implementation region, and an ultimate net decline of global oceanic oxygen.

Description: Facilitated by the intensification of global trading, the introduction and dispersal of species to areas in which they are historically non-native is nowadays common. From an evolutionary standpoint, invasions are paradoxical: not only non-native environments could be different from native ones for which introduced individuals would be ill-adapted, but also small founding population size should be associated with reduced adaptive potential. As such, biological invasions are considered valuable real-time evolutionary experiments. Here, we investigated the population structure and adaptive potential of the highly invasive topmouth gudgeon (Pseudorasbora parva) across Europe and East Asia. We RAD-sequenced 301 specimens from sixteen populations and three distinct within-catchment invaded regions as well as two locations in the native range. With 13,785 single nucleotide polymorphisms, we provide conclusive evidence for a genome-wide signature of two distinct invasion events, in Slovakia and Turkey, each originating from a specific area in the native range. A third invaded area, in France, appears to be the result of dispersal within the invasive range. Few loci showed signs of selection, the vast majority of which being identified in the Slovakian region. Functional annotation suggests that faster early stage development, resistance to pollution and immunocompetence contribute to the invasion success of the local habitats. By showing that populations in the invasive range have different evolutionary histories, our study reinforces the idea that populations, rather than species, are the units to consider in invasion biology.

Description: Most molluscs possess shells, constructed from a vast array of microstructures and architectures. The fully formed shell is composed of calcite or aragonite. These CaCO3 crystals form complex biocomposites with proteins, which although typically less than 5% of total shell mass, play significant roles in determining shell microstructure. Despite much research effort, large knowledge gaps remain in how molluscs construct and maintain their shells, and how they produce such a great diversity of forms. Here we synthesize results on how shell shape, microstructure, composition and organic content vary among, and within, species in response to numerous biotic and abiotic factors. At the local level, temperature, food supply and predation cues significantly affect shell morphology, whilst salinity has a much stronger influence across latitudes. Moreover, we emphasize how advances in genomic technologies [e.g. restriction site-associated DNA sequencing (RAD-Seq) and epigenetics] allow detailed examinations of whether morphological changes result from phenotypic plasticity or genetic adaptation, or a combination of these. RAD-Seq has already identified single nucleotide polymorphisms associated with temperature and aquaculture practices, whilst epigenetic processes have been shown significantly to modify shell construction to local conditions in, for example, Antarctica and New Zealand. We also synthesize results on the costs of shell construction and explore how these affect energetic trade-offs in animal metabolism. The cellular costs are still debated, with CaCO3 precipitation estimates ranging from 1–2 J/mg to 17–55 J/mg depending on experimental and environmental conditions. However, organic components are more expensive (~29 J/mg) and recent data indicate transmembrane calcium ion transporters can involve considerable costs. This review emphasizes the role that molecular analyses have played in demonstrating multiple evolutionary origins of biomineralization genes. Although these are characterized by lineage-specific proteins and unique combinations of co-opted genes, a small set of protein domains have been identified as a conserved biomineralization tool box. We further highlight the use of sequence data sets in providing candidate genes for in situ localization and protein function studies. The former has elucidated gene expression modularity in mantle tissue, improving understanding of the diversity of shell morphology synthesis. RNA interference (RNAi) and clustered regularly interspersed short palindromic repeats - CRISPR-associated protein 9 (CRISPR-Cas9) experiments have provided proof of concept for use in the functional investigation of mollusc gene sequences, showing for example that Pif (aragonite-binding) protein plays a significant role in structured nacre crystal growth and that the Lsdia1 gene sets shell chirality in Lymnaea stagnalis. Much research has focused on the impacts of ocean acidification on molluscs. Initial studies were predominantly pessimistic for future molluscan biodiversity. However, more sophisticated experiments incorporating selective breeding and multiple generations are identifying subtle effects and that variability within mollusc genomes has potential for adaption to future conditions. Furthermore, we highlight recent historical studies based on museum collections that demonstrate a greater resilience of molluscs to climate change compared with experimental data. The future of mollusc research lies not solely with ecological investigations into biodiversity, and this review synthesizes knowledge across disciplines to understand biomineralization. It spans research ranging from evolution and development, through predictions of biodiversity prospects and future-proofing of aquaculture to identifying new biomimetic opportunities and societal benefits from recycling shell products.

Description: A major surface circulation feature of the Arctic Ocean is the Transpolar Drift (TPD), a current that transports river‐influenced shelf water from the Laptev and East Siberian Seas toward the center of the basin and Fram Strait. In 2015, the international GEOTRACES program included a high‐resolution pan‐Arctic survey of carbon, nutrients, and a suite of trace elements and isotopes (TEIs). The cruises bisected the TPD at two locations in the central basin, which were defined by maxima in meteoric water and dissolved organic carbon concentrations that spanned 600 km horizontally and ~25‐50 m vertically. Dissolved TEIs such as Fe, Co, Ni, Cu, Hg, Nd, and Th, which are generally particle‐reactive but can be complexed by organic matter, were observed at concentrations much higher than expected for the open ocean setting. Other trace element concentrations such as Al, V, Ga, and Pb were lower than expected due to scavenging over the productive East Siberian and Laptev shelf seas. Using a combination of radionuclide tracers and ice drift modeling, the transport rate for the core of the TPD was estimated at 0.9 ± 0.4 Sv (106 m3 s‐1). This rate was used to derive the mass flux for TEIs that were enriched in the TPD, revealing the importance of lateral transport in supplying materials beneath the ice to the central Arctic Ocean and potentially to the North Atlantic Ocean via Fram Strait. Continued intensification of the Arctic hydrologic cycle and permafrost degradation will likely lead to an increase in the flux of TEIs into the Arctic Ocean.

Description: This study proposes a new process‐based framework to characterize and classify runoff events of various magnitudes occurring in a wide range of catchments. The framework uses dimensionless indicators that characterize space–time dynamics of precipitation events and their spatial interaction with antecedent catchment states, described as snow cover, distribution of frozen soils, and soil moisture content. A rigorous uncertainty analysis showed that the developed indicators are robust and regionally consistent. Relying on covariance‐ and ratio‐based indicators leads to reduced classification uncertainty compared to commonly used (event‐based) indicators based on absolute values of metrics such as duration, volume, and intensity of precipitation events. The event typology derived from the proposed framework is able to stratify events that exhibit distinct hydrograph dynamics even if streamflow is not directly used for classification. The derived typology is therefore able to capture first‐order controls of event runoff response in a wide variety of catchments. Application of this typology to about 180,000 runoff events observed in 392 German catchments revealed six distinct regions with homogeneous event type frequency that match well regions with similar behavior in terms of runoff response identified in Germany. The detected seasonal pattern of event type occurrence is regionally consistent and agrees well with the seasonality of hydroclimatic conditions. The proposed framework can be a useful tool for comparative analyses of regional differences and similarities of runoff generation processes at catchment scale and their possible spatial and temporal evolution.

Description: Predation is a pervasive force that structures food webs and directly influences ecosystem functioning. The relative body sizes of predators and prey may be an important determinant of interaction strengths. However, studies quantifying the combined influence of intra‐ and interspecific variation in predator–prey body size ratios are lacking. We use a comparative functional response approach to examine interaction strengths between three size classes of invasive bluegill and largemouth bass toward three scaled size classes of their tilapia prey. We then quantify the influence of intra‐ and interspecific predator–prey body mass ratios on the scaling of attack rates and handling times. Type II functional responses were displayed by both predators across all predator and prey size classes. Largemouth bass consumed more than bluegill at small and intermediate predator size classes, while large predators of both species were more similar. Small prey were most vulnerable overall; however, differential attack rates among prey were emergent across predator sizes. For both bluegill and largemouth bass, small predators exhibited higher attack rates toward small and intermediate prey sizes, while larger predators exhibited greater attack rates toward large prey. Conversely, handling times increased with prey size, with small bluegill exhibiting particularly low feeding rates toward medium–large prey types. Attack rates for both predators peaked unimodally at intermediate predator–prey body mass ratios, while handling times generally shortened across increasing body mass ratios. We thus demonstrate effects of body size ratios on predator–prey interaction strengths between key fish species, with attack rates and handling times dependent on the relative sizes of predator–prey participants. Considerations for intra‐ and interspecific body size ratio effects are critical for predicting the strengths of interactions within ecosystems and may drive differential ecological impacts among invasive species as size ratios shift.

Description: The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a key mechanism of heat, freshwater, and carbon redistribution in the climate system. The precept that the AMOC has changed abruptly in the past, notably during and at the end of the last ice age, and that it is “very likely” to weaken in the coming century due to anthropogenic climate change is a key motivation for sustained observations of the AMOC. This paper reviews the methodology and technology used to observe the AMOC and assesses these ideas and systems for accuracy, shortcomings, potential improvements, and sustainability. We review hydrographic techniques and look at how these traditional techniques can meet modern requirements. Transport mooring arrays (TMAs) provide the “gold standard” for sustained AMOC observing, utilizing dynamic height, current meter, and other instrumentation and techniques to produce continuous observations of the AMOC. We consider the principle of these systems and how they can be sustained and improved into the future. Techniques utilizing indirect measurements, such as satellite altimetry, coupled with in situ measurements, such as the Argo float array, are also discussed. Existing technologies that perhaps have not been fully exploited for estimating AMOC are reviewed and considered for this purpose. Technology is constantly evolving, and we look to the future of technology and how it can be deployed for sustained and expanded AMOC measurements. Finally, all of these methodologies and technologies are considered with a view to a sustained and sustainable future for AMOC observation.

Description: The Svalbard margin represents one of the northernmost gas hydrate provinces worldwide. Vestnesa Ridge (VR) and Svyatogor Ridge (SR) west of Svalbard are two prominent sediment drifts showing abundant pockmarks and sites of seismic chimney structures. Some of these sites at VR are associated with active gas venting and were the focus of drilling and coring with the seafloor‐deployed MARUM‐MeBo70 rig. Understanding the nature of fluid migration and gas hydrate distribution requires (amongst other parameters) knowledge of the thermal regime and in situ gas and pore‐fluid composition. In situ temperature data were obtained downhole at a reference site at VR defining a geothermal gradient of ~78 mK m‐1 (heat flow ~95 mW m‐2). Additional heat‐probe data were obtained to describe the thermal regime of the pockmarks. The highest heat flow values were systematically seen within pockmark depressions and were uncorrelated to gas venting occurrences. Heat flow within pockmarks is typically ~20 mW m‐2 higher than outside pockmarks. Using the downhole temperature data and gas compositions from drilling we model the regional base of the gas hydrate stability zone (BGHSZ). Thermal modeling including topographic effects suggest a BGHSZ up to 40 m deeper than estimated from seismic data. Uncertainties in sediment properties (velocity and thermal conductivity) are only partially explaining the mismatch. Capillary effects due to small sediment grain sizes may shift the free gas occurrence above the equilibrium BGHSZ. Changes in gas composition or pore fluid salinity at greater depth may also explain the discrepancy in observed and modeled BGHSZ.

Description: 〈jats:title〉Abstract〈/jats:title〉〈jats:p〉 〈jats:list〉 〈jats:list-item〉〈jats:p〉Social–ecological systems (SES) exhibit complex cause‐and‐effect relationships. Capturing, interpreting, and responding to signals that indicate changes in ecosystems is key for sustainable management in SES. Breaks in this signal–response chain, when feedbacks are missing, will allow change to continue until a point when abrupt ecological surprises may occur.〈/jats:p〉〈/jats:list-item〉 〈jats:list-item〉〈jats:p〉In these situations, societies and local ecosystems can often become uncoupled. In this paper, we demonstrate how the red loop–green loop (RL–GL) concept can be used to uncover missing feedbacks and to better understand past social–ecological dynamics. Reinstating these feedbacks in order to recouple the SES may ultimately create more sustainable systems on local scales.〈/jats:p〉〈/jats:list-item〉 〈jats:list-item〉〈jats:p〉The RL–GL concept can uncover missing feedbacks through the characterization of SES dynamics along a spectrum of human resource dependence. Drawing on diverse qualitative and quantitative data sources, we classify SES dynamics throughout the history of Jamaican coral reefs along the RL–GL spectrum. We uncover missing feedbacks in red‐loop and red‐trap scenarios from around the year 600 until now. The Jamaican coral reef SES dynamics have moved between all four dynamic states described in the RL–GL concept: green loop, green trap, red loop and red trap.〈/jats:p〉〈/jats:list-item〉 〈jats:list-item〉〈jats:p〉We then propose mechanisms to guide the current unsustainable red traps back to more sustainable green loops, involving mechanisms of seafood trade and ecological monitoring. By gradually moving away from seafood exports, Jamaica may be able to return to green‐loop dynamics between the local society and their locally sourced seafood. We discuss the potential benefits and drawbacks of this proposed intervention and give indications of why an export ban may insure against future missing feedbacks and could prolong the sustainability of the Jamaican coral reef ecosystem.〈/jats:p〉〈/jats:list-item〉 〈jats:list-item〉〈jats:p〉Our approach demonstrates how the RL–GL approach can uncover missing feedbacks in a coral reef SES, a way the concept has not been used before. We advocate for how the RL–GL concept in a feedback setting can be used to synthesize various types of data and to gain an understanding of past, present and future sustainability that can be applied in diverse social–ecological settings.〈/jats:p〉〈/jats:list-item〉 〈/jats:list〉 〈/jats:p〉〈jats:p〉A free 〈jats:ext-link xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/pan3.10092/suppinfo"〉Plain Language Summary〈/jats:ext-link〉 can be found within the Supporting Information of this article.〈/jats:p〉