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  • 21
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    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
    In:  Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 124 (5). pp. 3021-3035.
    Publikationsdatum: 2022-01-31
    Beschreibung: Key Points: • A regional ocean model is used to examine multidecadal shelf temperature changes on the Agulhas Bank • There are distinct shelf temperature regime changes in 1966 and 1996 • These regime shifts are caused by changes in coastal upwelling linked to large-scale wind variability The Agulhas Bank is an important area for the spawning of small pelagic fish and other species. Here, within a NEMO ocean model, we investigate changes in temperature over the Bank on multidecadal time scales. In agreement with previous observational studies, a shift to colder temperatures is found in 1997. The model also simulates an earlier shift from colder to warmer temperatures in 1966. These shifts are coastally confined and shown, using a climatologically forced model run as a control, to be driven by a north‐south migration in the large‐scale wind belts, rather than by changes in downward heat fluxes or changes in the Agulhas Current itself. The zonal wind changes on the Agulhas Bank show a significant relationship with the Southern Annular Mode, showing some promise for future predictability of cold and warm regimes on the Agulhas Bank. Thus, while the Agulhas Current has been shown in previous work to have a large impact on intra‐annual and interannual temperature variability, this work shows that multidecadal variability in temperature on the shelf is likely to be wind forced.
    Materialart: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 22
    Publikationsdatum: 2022-01-21
    Beschreibung: Aim: Invasive species are of increasing global concern. Nevertheless, the mechanisms driving further distribution after the initial establishment of non‐native species remain largely unresolved, especially in marine systems. Ocean currents can be a major driver governing range occupancy, but this has not been accounted for in most invasion ecology studies so far. We investigate how well initial establishment areas are interconnected to later occupancy regions to test for the potential role of ocean currents driving secondary spread dynamics in order to infer invasion corridors and the source–sink dynamics of a non‐native holoplanktonic biological probe species on a continental scale. Location: Western Eurasia. Time period: 1980s–2016. Major taxa studied: ‘Comb jelly’ Mnemiopsis leidyi. Methods: Based on 12,400 geo‐referenced occurrence data, we reconstruct the invasion history of M. leidyi in western Eurasia. We model ocean currents and calculate their stability to match the temporal and spatial spread dynamics with large‐scale connectivity patterns via ocean currents. Additionally, genetic markers are used to test the predicted connectivity between subpopulations. Results: Ocean currents can explain secondary spread dynamics, matching observed range expansions and the timing of first occurrence of our holoplanktonic non‐native biological probe species, leading to invasion corridors in western Eurasia. In northern Europe, regional extinctions after cold winters were followed by rapid recolonizations at a speed of up to 2,000 km per season. Source areas hosting year‐round populations in highly interconnected regions can re‐seed genotypes over large distances after local extinctions. Main conclusions: Although the release of ballast water from container ships may contribute to the dispersal of non‐native species, our results highlight the importance of ocean currents driving secondary spread dynamics. Highly interconnected areas hosting invasive species are crucial for secondary spread dynamics on a continental scale. Invasion risk assessments should consider large‐scale connectivity patterns and the potential source regions of non‐native marine species.
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  • 23
    Publikationsdatum: 2022-03-09
    Beschreibung: Long‐term observations from a 17 year long mooring array at the exit of the Labrador Sea at 53°N are compared to the output of a high‐resolution model (VIKING20). Both are analyzed to define robust integral properties on basin and regional scale, which can be determined and evaluated equally well. While both, the observations and the model, show a narrow DWBC cyclonically engulfing the Labrador Sea, the model's boundary current system is more barotropic than in the observations and spectral analysis indicates stronger monthly to interannual transport variability. Compared to the model, the observations show a stronger density gradient, hence a stronger baroclinicity, from center to boundary. Despite this, the observed temporal evolution of the temperature in the central Labrador Sea is reproduced. The model results yield a mean export of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) (33.0 +/‐ 5.7 Sv), which is comparable to the observed transport (31.2 +/‐ 5.5 Sv) at 53°N. The results also include a comparable spatial pattern and March mixed layer depth in the central Labrador Sea (maximum depth ∼ 2000 m). During periods containing enhanced deep convection (1990's) our analyses show increased correlation between LSW and LNADW model transport at 53°N. Our results indicate that the transport variability in LSW and LNADW at 53°N is a result of a complex modulation of wind stress and buoyancy forcing on regional and basin wide scale.
    Materialart: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 24
    Publikationsdatum: 2022-03-09
    Beschreibung: Large solitary meanders are arguably the dominant mode of variability in the Agulhas Current. Observational studies have shown that these large meanders are associated with strong upwelling velocities and affect the shelf circulation for over 100 days per year. Here 10-year time series from two ocean general circulation models are used to create a composite picture of the Agulhas Current and its interactions with the shelf circulation in meandering and nonmeandering modes. Both models show good agreement with the size, propagation speed, and frequency of observed meanders. These composite meanders are then used to examine the response of shelf waters to the onset of large meanders, with the use of model output enabling the dynamics at depth to be explored. Results show a composite mean warming of up to 3°C of depth-averaged temperature along the shelf edge associated with an intrusion of the current jet onto the shelf driven by an intensification of the flow along the leading edge of large meanders. However, this intensification of flow results in cooling of bottom waters, driving cold events at the shelf break of 〈10°C at 100 m. Thus, the intensification of the current jet associated with large meander events appears to drive strong up and downwelling events across the inshore front of the Agulhas Current, facilitating shelf-slope exchange.
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  • 25
    Publikationsdatum: 2024-02-07
    Beschreibung: Warming of the North Atlantic region in climate history often was associated with massive melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet. To identify the meltwater’s impacts and isolate these from internal variability and other global warming factors, we run single-forcing simulations including small ensembles using three complex climate models differing only in their ocean components. In 200-year long pre-industrial climate simulations, we identify robust consequences of abruptly increasing Greenland runoff by 0.05 Sv: sea-level rise of 44±10 cm, subpolar North Atlantic surface cooling of 0.7˚C and a moderate AMOC decline of 1.1–2.0 Sv. The latter two emerge in under three decades—and reverse on the same timescale after the perturbation ends in year 100. The ocean translates the step-change perturbation into a multi-decadal to centennial signature in the deep overturning circulation. In all simulations, internal variability creates notable uncertainty in estimating trends, time of emergence and duration of the response.
    Materialart: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 26
    Publikationsdatum: 2024-02-07
    Beschreibung: The Makassar Strait, the main passageway of the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF), is an important component of Indo-Pacific climate through its inter-basin redistribution of heat and freshwater. Observational studies suggest that wind-driven freshwater advection from the marginal seas into the Makassar Strait modulates the strait's surface transport. However, direct observations are too short (〈15 years) to resolve variability on decadal timescales. Here we use a series of global ocean simulations to assess the advected freshwater contributions to ITF transport across a range of timescales. The simulated seasonal and interannual freshwater dynamics are consistent with previous studies. On decadal timescales, we find that wind-driven advection of South China Sea (SCS) waters into the Makassar Strait modulates upper-ocean ITF transport. Atmospheric circulation changes associated with Pacific decadal variability appear to drive this mechanism via Pacific lower-latitude western boundary current interactions that affect the SCS circulation. Key Points: - A global ocean model is used to show how freshwater impacts the decadal variability of transport through the main Indonesian Throughflow pathway - Wind-driven advection of South China Sea freshwater induces an upstream pressure gradient that reduces transport - Freshwater input is modulated by atmospheric circulation changes associated with Pacific decadal variability
    Materialart: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 27
    Publikationsdatum: 2024-02-07
    Beschreibung: Deep convection and associated deep water formation are key processes for climate variability, since they impact the oceanic uptake of heat and trace gases and alter the structure and strength of the global overturning circulation. For long, deep convection in the subpolar North Atlantic was thought to be confined to the central Labrador Sea in the western subpolar gyre (SPG). However, there is increasing observational evidence that deep convection also has occurred in the eastern SPG south of Cape Farewell and in the Irminger Sea, in particular, in 2015–2018. Here we assess this recent event in the context of the temporal evolution of spatial deep convection patterns in the SPG since the mid-twentieth century, using realistic eddy-rich ocean model simulations. These reveal a large interannual variability with changing contributions of the eastern SPG to the total deep convection volume. Notably, in the late 1980s to early 1990s, the period with highest deep convection intensity in the Labrador Sea related to a persistent positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, the relative contribution of the eastern SPG was small. In contrast, in 2015–2018, deep convection occurred with an unprecedented large relative contribution of the eastern SPG. This is partly linked to a smaller north-westward extent of deep convection in the Labrador Sea compared to previous periods of intensified deep convection, and may be a first fingerprint of freshening trends in the Labrador Sea potentially associated with enhanced Greenland melting and the oceanic advection of the 2012–2016 eastern North Atlantic fresh anomaly.
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  • 28
    Publikationsdatum: 2024-02-07
    Beschreibung: While forced ocean hindcast simulations are useful for a wide range of applications, a key limitation is their inability to simulate ocean-atmosphere feedbacks. As a consequence, they need to rely on artificial choices such as sea surface salinity restoring and other corrections affecting the surface freshwater fluxes. Fully coupled models overcome these limitations, but lack the correct timing of variability due to weaker observational constraints. This leads to a mismatch between forced and coupled models on interannual to decadal timescales. A possibility to combine the advantages of both modelling strategies is to apply a partial coupling (PCPL), i.e. replacing the surface winds stress in the ocean component by wind stress derived from reanalysis. To identify the capabilities, limitations and possible use cases of partial coupling, we perform a fully coupled, two partially coupled and an ocean-only experiment using an all-Atlantic nested ocean configuration at eddying resolution in a global climate model. We show that the correct timing of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) variability in PCPL experiments is robust on timescales below 5 years. Mid-latitude wind stress curl changes contribute to decadal AMOC variability, but North Atlantic buoyancy fluxes are not significantly altered by incorporating reanalysed wind stress anomalies, limiting the success of PCPL on this timescale. Long term trends of the AMOC in PCPL mode are consistent with fully coupled model experiments under historic atmospheric boundary conditions, suggesting that a partially coupled model is still able to simulate the important ocean-atmosphere feedbacks necessary to maintain a stable AMOC.
    Materialart: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 29
    Publikationsdatum: 2024-02-07
    Beschreibung: Because new observations have revealed that the Labrador Sea is not the primary source for waters in the lower limb of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) during the Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Programme (OSNAP) period, it seems timely to re-examine the traditional interpretation of pathways and property variability for the AMOC lower limb from the subpolar gyre to 26.5 degrees N. In order to better understand these connections, Lagrangian experiments were conducted within an eddy-rich ocean model to track upper North Atlantic Deep Water (uNADW), defined by density, between the OSNAP line and 26.5 degrees N as well as within the Labrador Sea. The experiments reveal that 77% of uNADW at 26.5 degrees N is directly advected from the OSNAP West section along the boundary current and interior pathways west of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. More precisely, the Labrador Sea is a main gateway for uNADW sourced from the Irminger Sea, while particles connecting OSNAP East to 26.5 degrees N are exclusively advected from the Iceland Basin and Rockall Trough along the eastern flank of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. Although the pathways between OSNAP West and 26.5 degrees N are only associated with a net formation of 1.1 Sv into the uNADW layer, they show large density changes within the layer. Similarly, as the particles transit through the Labrador Sea, they undergo substantial freshening and cooling that contributes to further densification within the uNADW layer. Key Points: - The large majority of upper North Atlantic Deep Water (uNADW) sourced from the Irminger Sea transits through the Labrador Sea before reaching 26.5°N - Interior pathways along the eastern flank of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge connect the Iceland Basin and Rockall Trough to 26.5°N - Though uNADW is mainly sourced in the eastern subpolar gyre, its transit in the Labrador Sea is associated with further property changes
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  • 30
    Publikationsdatum: 2024-02-07
    Beschreibung: The southward flow of North Atlantic Deep Water makes up the major component of the deepwater limb of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). In the subtropical North Atlantic, it's flow is concentrated along the continental slope, forming a coherent Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC). Both, observations and models show a high variability of the flow in this region. Here we use an eddy-rich ocean model to show that this variability is mainly caused by eddies and meanders. Their formation process involves an important contribution from energy transfer by barotropic instability. They occur along the entire DWBC pathway and introduce several recirculation gyres that result in a decorrelation of the DWBC transport at 26.5°N and 16°N, despite the fact that a considerable mean transport of 20 Sv connects the two latitudes. Water in the DWBC at 26.5°N is partly returned northward. Because the amount of water returned depends on the DWBC transport itself, a stronger DWBC does not necessarily lead to an increased amount of water that reaches 16°N. Along the pathway to 16°N, the transport signal is altered by a broad and temporally variable transit time distribution. Thus, advection in the DWBC cannot account for coherent AMOC changes on interannual timescales seen in the model.
    Materialart: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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