Description: The 3-d coupled physical–biogeochemical model ECOHAM (version 3) was applied to the Northwest-European Shelf (47°41′–63°53′N, 15°5′W–13°55′E) for the years 1993–1996. Carbon fluxes were calculated for the years 1995 and 1996 for the inner shelf region, the North Sea (511,725 km2). This period was chosen because it corresponds to a shift from a very high winter-time North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) in 1994/1995, to an extremely low one in 1995/1996, with consequences for the North Sea physics and biogeochemistry. During the first half of 1996, the observed mean SST was about 1 °C lower than in 1995; in the southern part of the North Sea the difference was even larger (up to 3 °C). Due to a different wind regime, the normally prevailing anti-clockwise circulation, as found in winter 1995, was replaced by more complicated circulation patterns in winter 1996. Decreased precipitation over the drainage area of the continental rivers led to a reduction in the total (inorganic and organic) riverine carbon load to the North Sea from 476 Gmol C yr−1 in 1995 to 340 Gmol C yr−1 in 1996. In addition, the North Sea took up 503 Gmol C yr−1 of CO2 from the atmosphere. According to our calculations, the North Sea was a sink for atmospheric CO2, at a rate of 0.98 mol C m−2 yr−1, for both years. The North Sea is divided into two sub-systems: the shallow southern North Sea (SNS; 190,765 km2) and the deeper northern North Sea (NNS; 320,960 km2). According to our findings the SNS is a net-autotrophic system (net ecosystem production NEP〉0) but released CO2 to the atmosphere: 159 Gmol C yr−1 in 1995 and 59 Gmol C yr−1 in 1996. There, the temperature-driven release of CO2 outcompetes the biological CO2 drawdown. In the NNS, where respiratory processes prevail (NEP〈0), 662 and 562 Gmol C yr−1 were taken up from the atmosphere in 1995 and 1996, respectively. Stratification separates the productive, upper layer from the deeper layers of the water column where respiration/remineralization takes place. Duration and stability of the stratification are determined by the meteorological conditions, in relation to the NAO. Our results suggest that this mechanism controlling the nutrient supply to the upper layer in the northern and central North Sea has a larger impact on the carbon fluxes than changes in lateral transport due to NAOI variations. The North Sea as a whole imports organic carbon and exports inorganic carbon across the outer boundaries, and was found to be net-heterotrophic, more markedly in 1996 than in 1995.

Description: We employed coupled 3-D biophysical models to better understand the effects of physical forcing conditions as well as differences in vertical distribution and growth performance on the spatial distribution of larval sprat (Sprattus sprattus) in the North and the Baltic Sea. Our model simulations analysed the influence of abiotic and biotic forcing variability on larval transport and the seasonal and inter-annual variability in spatial distribution of larvae originating from different spawning areas in each of the two systems. Due to strong spatial and temporal differences in temperature, drift durations differed between the two ecosystems. During cold spring and warm summer periods, drift durations in the Baltic were ∼35 and 15 days, respectively, but were somewhat shorter (30 and 10 d) in the North Sea. Changes in larval feeding rates markedly impacted larval growth rate and stage duration, and, hence, environmental histories experienced by larvae as well as their final distribution. Generally, specific spawning sites were relatively well connected to specific juvenile nursery areas in the Baltic. However, in the North Sea, considerable mixing of sprat populations occurred with frontal areas acted as convergence zones for older larvae originating from different spawning sites. The mixing and/or co-occurrence of 18-mm larvae from different source regions were greatest (least) in the early spring (summer) for larvae at colder (warmer) temperatures having longer (shorter) drift durations. Generally, such high mixing probability would not promote small- or medium-scale population distinctness of North Sea sprat. The results of our coupled hydrodynamic/trophodynamic model simulations provide a baseline in quantifying and understanding larval sprat transport in these different ecosystems and exemplify the extent to which environmental variability (e.g., differences in temperature as well as prey availability) can influence spatial distributions of larval fish.