Description: To understand ecosystem responses to anthropogenic global change, a prevailing framework is the definition of threshold levels of pressure, above which response magnitudes and their variances increase disproportionately. However, we lack systematic quantitative evidence as to whether empirical data allow definition of such thresholds. Here, we summarize 36 meta-analyses measuring more than 4,600 global change impacts on natural communities. We find that threshold transgressions were rarely detectable, either within or across meta-analyses. Instead, ecological responses were characterized mostly by progressively increasing magnitude and variance when pressure increased. Sensitivity analyses with modelled data revealed that minor variances in the response are sufficient to preclude the detection of thresholds from data, even if they are present. The simulations reinforced our contention that global change biology needs to abandon the general expectation that system properties allow defining thresholds as a way to manage nature under global change. Rather, highly variable responses, even under weak pressures, suggest that ‘safe-operating spaces’ are unlikely to be quantifiable.

Description: The ocean—the Earth’s largest ecosystem—is increasingly affected by anthropogenic climate change1,2. Large and globally consistent shifts have been detected in species phenology, range extension and community composition in marine ecosystems3,4,5. However, despite evidence for ongoing change, it remains unknown whether marine ecosystems have entered an Anthropocene6 state beyond the natural decadal to centennial variability. This is because most observational time series lack a long-term baseline, and the few time series that extend back into the pre-industrial era have limited spatial coverage7,8. Here we use the unique potential of the sedimentary record of planktonic foraminifera—ubiquitous marine zooplankton—to provide a global pre-industrial baseline for the composition of modern species communities. We use a global compilation of 3,774 seafloor-derived planktonic foraminifera communities of pre-industrial age9 and compare these with communities from sediment-trap time series that have sampled plankton flux since ad 1978 (33 sites, 87 observation years). We find that the Anthropocene assemblages differ from their pre-industrial counterparts in proportion to the historical change in temperature. We observe community changes towards warmer or cooler compositions that are consistent with historical changes in temperature in 85% of the cases. These observations not only confirm the existing evidence for changes in marine zooplankton communities in historical times, but also demonstrate that Anthropocene communities of a globally distributed zooplankton group systematically differ from their unperturbed pre-industrial state.

Description: Aim Biodiversity dynamics comprise evolutionary and ecological changes on multiple temporal scales from millions of years to decades, but they are often interpreted within a single time frame. Planktonic foraminifera communities offer a unique opportunity for analysing the dynamics of marine biodiversity over different temporal scales. Our study aims to provide a baseline for assessments of biodiversity patterns over multiple time-scales, which is urgently needed to interpret biodiversity responses to increasing anthropogenic pressure. Location Global (26 sites). Time period Five time-scales: multi-million-year (0-7 Myr), million-year (0-0.5 Myr), multi-millennial (0-15 thousand years), millennial (0-1,100 years) and decadal (0-32 years). Major taxa studied Planktonic foraminifera. Methods We analysed community composition of planktonic foraminifera at five time-scales, combining measures of standing diversity (richness and effective number of species, ENS) with measures of temporal community turnover (presence-absence-based, dominance-based). Observed biodiversity patterns were compared with the outcome of a neutral model to separate the effects of sampling resolution (the highest in the shortest time series) from biological responses. Results Richness and ENS decreased from multi-million-year to millennial time-scales, but higher standing diversity was observed on the decadal scale. As predicted by the neutral model, turnover in species identity and dominance was strongest at the multi-million-year time-scale and decreased towards the millennial scale. However, contrary to the model predictions, modern time series show rapid decadal variation in the dominance structure of foraminifera communities, which is of comparable magnitude as over much longer time periods. Community turnover was significantly correlated with global temperature change, but not on the shortest time-scale. Main conclusions Biodiversity patterns can be to some degree predicted from the scaling effects related to different durations of time series, but changes in the dominance structure observed over the last few decades reach higher magnitude, probably forced by anthropogenic effects, than those observed over much longer durations.

Description: Biodiversity is expected to change in response to future global warming. However, it is difficult to predict how species will track the ongoing climate change. Here we use the fossil record of planktonic foraminifera to assess how biodiversity responded to climate change with a magnitude comparable to future anthropogenic warming. We compiled time series of planktonic foraminifera assemblages, covering the time from the last ice age across the deglaciation to the current warm period. Planktonic foraminifera assemblages shifted immediately when temperature began to rise at the end of the last ice age and continued to change until approximately 5,000 years ago, even though global temperature remained relatively stable during the last 11,000 years. The biotic response was largest in the mid latitudes and dominated by range expansion, which resulted in the emergence of new assemblages without analogues in the glacial ocean. Our results indicate that the plankton response to global warming was spatially heterogeneous and did not track temperature change uniformly over the past 24,000 years. Climate change led to the establishment of new assemblages and possibly new ecological interactions, which suggests that current anthropogenic warming may lead to new, different plankton community composition.

Description: The cold Last Glacial Maximum, around 20,000 years ago, provides a useful test case for evaluating whether climate models can simulate climate states distinct from the present. However, because of the indirect and uncertain nature of reconstructions of past environmental variables such as sea surface temperature, such evaluation remains ambiguous. Instead, here we evaluate simulations of Last Glacial Maximum climate by relying on the fundamental macroecological principle of decreasing community similarity with increasing thermal distance. Our analysis of planktonic foraminifera species assemblages from 647 sites reveals that the similarity-decay pattern that we obtain when the simulated ice age seawater temperatures are confronted with species assemblages from that time differs from the modern. This inconsistency between the modern temperature dependence of plankton species turnover and the simulations arises because the simulations show globally rather uniform cooling for the Last Glacial Maximum, whereas the species assemblages indicate stronger cooling in the subpolar North Atlantic. The implied steeper thermal gradient in the North Atlantic is more consistent with climate model simulations with a reduced Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Our approach demonstrates that macroecology can be used to robustly diagnose simulations of past climate and highlights the challenge of correctly resolving the spatial imprint of global change in climate models.