Note: Cover -- Title Page -- Copyright Page -- Table of Contents -- Series Editor's introduction -- Ministers' page: Towards forecasting a changing ocean: An African Perspective -- Sponsorship page -- Foreword -- List of contributors -- PART I: BY WAY OF INTRODUCTION -- Chapter 1. A plan comes together -- UNIQUE ENVIRONMENT -- TEN YEARS OF CLOSE REGIONAL COLLABORATION -- OBSERVING AND PREDICTING IN THE BCLME WITHIN THE INTERNATIONAL CONTEXT -- FAST-TRACKING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A REGIONAL OBSERVING SYSTEM AND PREDICTIVE CAPABILITY -- ABOUT THIS BOOK -- ACKNOWLEDGEMENT -- REFERENCES -- Chapter 2. Forecasting within the context of Large Marine Ecosystem Programs -- LME DEFINITION: DELINEATION AND MAJOR STRESSORS -- LME INDICATOR MODULES -- APPLICATION OF INDICATOR MODULES TO LME MANAGEMENT SUPPORTED BY THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT FACILITY (GEF) -- SCIENCE-BASED ASSESSMENTS OF LME BIOMASS YIELDS -- RECOVERING FISHERIES BIOMASS -- LME MODELING AND DRIVING FORCES OF CHANGE -- REFERENCES -- Chapter 3. The Global Ocean Observing System for Africa (GOOS Africa): Monitoring and Predicting in Large Marine Ecosystems -- INTRODUCTION -- THE LARGE MARINE ECOSYSTEM (LME) CONCEPT AND STRATEGY -- THE RISE OF THE GLOBAL OCEAN OBSERVING SYSTEM IN AFRICA (GOOS-AFRICA) -- GOOS-AFRICA STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIPS -- THE AFRICAN LMES ARE CORE AND VITAL STRATEGIC PARTNERS FOR GOOS-AFRICA -- GOOS-AFRICA CONTRIBUTION TO INTEGRATED MONITORING AND PREDICTING OF LARGE MARINE ECOSYSTEMS -- CONCLUDING REMARKS: SUCCESS STORIES -- GOOS-AFRICA FORWARD LOOK -- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS -- PART II: SETTING THE SCENE -- Chapter 4. Large scale physical variability of the Benguela Current Large Marine Ecosystem (BCLME) -- INTRODUCTION -- MAJOR PHYSICAL PROCESSES IN THE BCLME -- ATMOSPHERIC FORCING OF THE BCLME -- LARGE SCALE MODES OF VARIABILITY -- WATER MASSES AND VERTICAL STRUCTURE OF THE BCLME. , NUMERICAL OCEAN MODELLING IN THE BCLME -- SCHEMATIC CIRCULATION DEDUCED FROM A NUMERICAL MODEL -- NUMERICAL MODELLING OF THE PHYSICAL PROCESSES IN THE BCLME -- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS -- REFERENCES -- Chapter 5. Low oxygen water (LOW) variability in the Benguela system: Key processes and forcing scales relevant to forecasting -- INTRODUCTION -- SYNTHESIS OF SYSTEM PROCESSES AND VARIABILITY -- REMOTE FORCING: EASTERN TROPICAL SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC (ETSA - BENGUELA LINKAGE) -- BENGUELA SHELF VARIABILITY -- PROCESSES REQUIRING DIAGNOSTIC ASSESSMENT -- PROCESSES WITH FORECASTING POTENTIAL -- WHAT ARE THE GAPS? -- SUMMARY -- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS -- REFERENCES -- Chapter 7. The variability and potential for prediction of harmful algal blooms in the southern Benguela ecosystem -- ABSTRACT -- INTRODUCTION -- THE SPATIAL [GEOGRAPHIC] DISTRIBUTION OF HABS -- SEASONAL INCIDENCE OF HABS -- THE TIMING OF HABS: ACROSS-SHELF AND ALONGSHORE TRANSPORT -- CONCLUSION: THE POTENTIAL FOR PREDICTION -- Chapter 8. Resource and ecosystem variability, including regime shifts, in the Benguela Current system -- ABSTRACT -- INTRODUCTION -- RESOURCE VARIABILITY -- ECOSYSTEM VARIABILITY -- PREDICTING VARIABILITY -- MAKING PREDICTIONS -- A WAY FORWARD -- CONCLUSIONS -- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS -- Chapter 6. Variability of plankton with reference to fish variability in the Benguela Current Large Marine Ecosystem - An overview -- ABSTRACT -- INTRODUCTION -- EVENT-SCALE VARIABILITY -- SEASONAL CHANGES -- INTERANNUAL AND DECADAL CHANGES -- CONCLUSIONS -- REFERENCES -- Chapter 9. Modelling, forecasting and scenarios in comparable upwelling ecosystems --California, Canary, Humboldt -- ABSTRACT -- INTRODUCTION -- PHYSICS -- ECOLOGY -- TELECONNECTIONS BETWEEN ECOSYSTEMS -- CONCLUSIONS AND FURTHER GENERAL THOUGHTS -- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS -- PART III: HOPES, DREAMS AND REALITY. , Chapter 10. Influences of large scale climate modes and Agulhas system variability on the BCLME region -- INTRODUCTION -- ATMOSPHERIC VARIABILITY OF THE BCLME REGION -- BENGUELA NIÑOS AND SST VARIABILITY IN THE TROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN -- INFLUENCE OF VARIABILITY IN THE SOUTHERN AGULHAS SYSTEM ON THE BCLME REGION -- SUMMARY -- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS -- Chapter 11. Developing a basis for detecting and predicting long-term ecosystem changes -- ABSTRACT -- INTRODUCTION -- ECOSYSTEM CHANGES TO BE MONITORED -- APPROPRIATE ECOSYSTEM INDICATORS AND MODELS -- DESIRED END PRODUCTS AND DATA REQUIREMENTS -- SCHEDULE FOR IMPLEMENTATION -- CONCLUSIONS -- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS -- Chapter 12. The requirements for forecasting harmful algal blooms in the Benguela -- INTRODUCTION -- PHYSICAL-BIOLOGICAL COUPLINGS UNDERLYING HABS -- IDENTIFICATION OF THE PHYSICAL PROCESSES IMPORTANT TO BLOOM CONCENTRATION AND TRANSPORT -- REAL-TIME OBSERVATION OF HABS -- NUMERICAL MODELLING AND PREDICTION OF HAB DYNAMICS -- CONCLUSIONS -- Chapter 13. Low oxygen water (LOW) forcing scales amenable to forecasting in the Benguela ecosystem -- INTRODUCTION -- SCALES OF LOW VARIABILITY AMENABLE TO FORECASTING -- REMOTE EQUATORIAL FORCING: 2 MONTH FORECASTING SCALE -- SHELF SCALE FORCING: 7 DAY FORECASTING SCALE -- IMPORTANCE OF COUPLED MECHANISMS -- OBSERVATIONAL PROGRAMME -- SUMMARY -- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS -- Chapter 14. Forecasting shelf processes of relevance to living marine resources in the BCLME -- ABSTRACT -- INTRODUCTION -- LOW OXYGEN WATER EVENTS -- MESOSCALE PROCESSES -- BOUNDARY PROCESSES -- OTHER SHELF PROCESSES -- DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS -- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS -- REFERENCES -- Chapter 15. Environmental data requirements of maritime operations in the Benguela coastal ocean -- INTRODUCTION -- OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION NEEDS -- DIAMOND MINING -- SHIPPING -- PORTS. , FISHING -- SOVEREIGNTY AND RESOURCE PROTECTION -- MARITIME FORECASTING IN SUPPORT OF RISK MANAGEMENT -- SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION -- ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS -- PART IV: THE WAY AHEAD -- Chapter 16. Towards a future integrated forecast system -- SUMMARY -- INTRODUCTION -- CANDIDATE PREDICTIVE CAPABILITIES FOR THE BCLME -- SYSTEM REQUIREMENTS FOR THE CANDIDATE PREDICTIVE CAPABILITIES -- CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS -- Chapter 17. Forecasting a large marine ecosystem -- SUMMARY -- INTRODUCTION -- MODELLING PRACTICE IN THE 21ST CENTURY -- SHORT-TERM LME FORECASTING -- MEDIUM-TERM LME FORECASTING -- LONG-TERM LME FORECASTING -- WHAT-IF? PREDICTION -- A VISION OF THE FUTURE -- Index -- Large Marine Ecosystems Series.