Description: Originating in the equatorial Pacific, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has highly consequential global impacts, motivating the need to understand its responses to anthropogenic warming. In this Review, we synthesize advances in observed and projected changes of multiple aspects of ENSO, including the processes behind such changes. As in previous syntheses, there is an inter-model consensus of an increase in future ENSO rainfall variability. Now, however, it is apparent that models that best capture key ENSO dynamics also tend to project an increase in future ENSO sea surface temperature variability and, thereby, ENSO magnitude under greenhouse warming, as well as an eastward shift and intensification of ENSO-related atmospheric teleconnections — the Pacific–North American and Pacific–South American patterns. Such projected changes are consistent with palaeoclimate evidence of stronger ENSO variability since the 1950s compared with past centuries. The increase in ENSO variability, though underpinned by increased equatorial Pacific upper-ocean stratification, is strongly influenced by internal variability, raising issues about its quantifiability and detectability. Yet, ongoing coordinated community efforts and computational advances are enabling long-simulation, large-ensemble experiments and high-resolution modelling, offering encouraging prospects for alleviating model biases, incorporating fundamental dynamical processes and reducing uncertainties in projections. Key points Under anthropogenic warming, the majority of climate models project faster background warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific compared with the west. The observed equatorial Pacific surface warming pattern since 1980, though opposite to the projected faster warming in the equatorial eastern Pacific, is within the inter-model range in terms of sea surface temperature (SST) gradients and is subject to influence from internal variability. El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) rainfall responses in the equatorial Pacific are projected to intensify and shift eastward, leading to an eastward intensification of extratropical teleconnections. ENSO SST variability and extreme ENSO events are projected to increase under greenhouse warming, with a stronger inter-model consensus in CMIP6 compared with CMIP5. However, the time of emergence for ENSO SST variability is later than that for ENSO rainfall variability, opposite to that for mean SST versus mean rainfall. Future ENSO change is likely influenced by past variability, such that quantification of future ENSO in the only realization of the real world is challenging. Although there is no definitive relationship of ENSO variability with the mean zonal SST gradient or seasonal cycle, palaeoclimate records suggest a causal connection between vertical temperature stratification and ENSO strength, and a greater ENSO strength since the 1950s than in past centuries, supporting an emerging increase in ENSO variability under greenhouse warming.

Description: El Niño events are characterized by surface warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean and weakening of equatorial trade winds that occur every few years. Such conditions are accompanied by changes in atmospheric and oceanic circulation, affecting global climate, marine and terrestrial ecosystems, fisheries and human activities. The alternation of warm El Niño and cold La Niña conditions, referred to as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), represents the strongest year-to-year fluctuation of the global climate system. Here we provide a synopsis of our current understanding of the spatio-temporal complexity of this important climate mode and its influence on the Earth system.

Description: As part of the calibration/validation effort for NASA's Scatterometer (NSCAT) we compare the satellite data to winds measured at the sea surface with an array of buoys moored in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The NSCAT data record runs from September, 1996 through the end of June, 1997. The raw NSCAT data, radar backscatter, is converted to wind vectors at 10 meters above the surface assuming a neutrally stratified atmosphere, using the NSCAT-1 and NSCAT-2 model functions. The surface winds were measured directly by the TAO (Tropical Atmosphere Ocean) buoy array which spans the width of the equatorial Pacific within about 8° of the equator. The buoy program and data archive are maintained by the Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, in collaboration with institutions in Japan, France and Taiwan. We also use data from two buoys maintained by the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution located along 125°W. Since the buoy winds are measured at various heights above the surface, they are adjusted for both height and atmospheric surface layer stratification before comparisons are made to the NSCAT data. Co-location requirements include measurements within 100 km and 60 minutes of each other. There was a total of 5580 comparisons for the NSCAT-1 model function and 6364 comparisons for the NSCAT-2 model function. The NSCAT wind speeds, using the NSCAT-1 model function, are lower than the buoy wind speeds by about 0.54 ms-1 and have a 9.8° directional bias. The NSCAT-2 winds speeds were lower than the TAO buoy winds by only 0.08 ms-1, but still have the same 9.8° directional bias. The wind retrieval algorithm selects the vector closest to the buoy approximately 88% of the time. However, in the relatively low wind speed regime of the TAO array, approximately 4% of the wind vectors are more than 120° from the buoy wind.

Description: Funding was provided by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under Contract No. 957652.

Description: During May and June 2000, an intercomparison was made of buoy meteorological systems from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL), and the Japanese Marine Science and Technology Center (JAMSTEC). Two WHOI systems mounted on a 3 m discus buoy, two PMEL systems mounted on separate buoy tower tops and one JAMSTEC system mounted on a wooden platform were lined parallel to, and 25 m from Nantucket Sound in Massachusetts. All systems used R. M. Young propeller anemometers, Rotronic relative humidity and air temperature sensors and Eppley short-wave radiation sensors. The PMEL and WHOI systems used R. M.Young self-siphoning rain gauges, while the JAMSTEC system used a Scientific Technology ORG-115 optical rain gauge. The PMEL and WHOI systems included an Eppley PIR long-wave sensor, while the JAMSTEC had no longwave sensor. The WHOI system used an AIR DB-1A barometric pressure sensor. PMEL and JAMSTEC systems used Paroscientific Digiquartz sensors. The Geophysical Instruments and Measurements Group (GIM) from Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) installed two Portable Radiation Package (PRP) systems that include Eppley short-wave and long-wave sensors on a platform near the site. It was apparent from the data that for most of the sensors, the correlation between data sets was better than the absolute agreement between them. The conclusions made were that the sensors and associated electronics from the three different laboratories performed comparably.

Description: Funding was provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration under Grant Number NA96GPO429.