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  • 1
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    Ocean science: The origins of a climate oscillation (2015)
    Nature Publishing Group
    In:  Nature, 521 (7553). pp. 428-430.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-12-19
    Description: An index of water-circulation strength in the North Atlantic Ocean has been derived from sea-level measurements. This provides fresh evidence of the ocean's leading role in multidecadal climate variability. See Letter p.508
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
    DOI: 10.1038/521428a
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 2
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    Climate response to smoke from the burning oil wells in Kuwait (1991)
    Nature Publishing Group
    In:  Nature, 351 (6325). pp. 367-371.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-02-24
    Description: The response of the global climate system to smoke from burning oil wells in Kuwait is investigated in a series of numerical experiments using a coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model with an interactive soot transport model and extended radiation scheme. The results show a decrease in surface air temperature of ~4 °C in the Gulf region. Outside this region the changes are small and statistically insignificant. No weakening of the Indian summer monsoon is observed.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
    DOI: 10.1038/351367a0
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 3
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    Effects of long-term variability on projections of twenty-first century dynamic sea level (2015)
    Nature Publishing Group
    In:  Nature Climate Change, 5 (4). pp. 343-347.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-13
    Description: Sea-level rise1 is one of the most pressing aspects of anthropogenic global warming with far-reaching consequences for coastal societies. However, sea-level rise did2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 and will strongly vary from coast to coast8, 9, 10. Here we investigate the long-term internal variability effects on centennial projections of dynamic sea level (DSL), the local departure from the globally averaged sea level. A large ensemble of global warming integrations has been conducted with a climate model, where each realization was forced by identical CO2 increase but started from different atmospheric and oceanic initial conditions. In large parts of the mid- and high latitudes, the ensemble spread of the projected centennial DSL trends is of the same order of magnitude as the globally averaged steric sea-level rise, suggesting that internal variability cannot be ignored when assessing twenty-first-century DSL trends. The ensemble spread is considerably reduced in the mid- to high latitudes when only the atmospheric initial conditions differ while keeping the oceanic initial state identical; indicating that centennial DSL projections are strongly dependent on ocean initial conditions.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: text
    Format: text
    DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2569
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 4
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    Turned out nice again (2000)
    Nature Publishing Group
    In:  Nature, 404 (6780). p. 814.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-02-25
    Description: Book review of: The Change in the Weather: People, Weather, and the Science of Climate by William K. Stevens Delacorte: 2000. 432 pp. $24.95
    Type: Article , NonPeerReviewed
    Format: text
    DOI: 10.1038/35009013
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - without review
  • 5
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    Increased El Niño frequency in a climate model forced by future greenhouse warming (1999)
    Nature Publishing Group
    In:  Nature, 398 (6729). pp. 694-697.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-02-25
    Description: The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is the strongest natural interannual climate fluctuation1. ENSO originates in the tropical Pacific Ocean and has large effects on the ecology of the region, but it also influences the entire global climate system and affects the societies and economies of manycountries2. ENSO can be understood as an irregular low-frequency oscillation between a warm (El Niño) and a cold (La Niña) state. The strong El Niños of 1982/1983 and 1997/1998, along with the more frequent occurrences of El Niños during the past few decades, raise the question of whether human-induced 'greenhouse' warming affects, or will affect, ENSO3. Several global climate models have been applied to transient greenhouse-gas-induced warming simulations to address this question4, 6, but the results have been debated owing to the inability of the models to fully simulate ENSO (because of their coarse equatorial resolution)7. Here we present results from a global climate model with sufficient resolution in the tropics to adequately represent the narrow equatorial upwelling and low-frequency waves. When the model is forced by a realistic future scenario of increasing greenhouse-gas concentrations, more frequent El-Niño-like conditions and stronger cold events in the tropical Pacific Ocean result
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
    DOI: 10.1038/19505
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 6
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    North Atlantic Ocean Control on Surface Heat Flux at Multidecadal Timescale (2013)
    Nature Publishing Group
    In:  Nature, 499 . pp. 464-467.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019-09-23
    Description: Nearly 50 years ago Bjerknes1 suggested that the character of large-scale air–sea interaction over the mid-latitude North Atlantic Ocean differs with timescales: the atmosphere was thought to drive directly most short-term—interannual—sea surface temperature (SST) variability, and the ocean to contribute significantly to long-term—multidecadal—SST and potentially atmospheric variability. Although the conjecture for short timescales is well accepted, understanding Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) of SST2, 3 remains a challenge as a result of limited ocean observations. AMV is nonetheless of major socio-economic importance because it is linked to important climate phenomena such as Atlantic hurricane activity and Sahel rainfall, and it hinders the detection of anthropogenic signals in the North Atlantic sector4, 5, 6. Direct evidence of the oceanic influence of AMV can only be provided by surface heat fluxes, the language of ocean–atmosphere communication. Here we provide observational evidence that in the mid-latitude North Atlantic and on timescales longer than 10 years, surface turbulent heat fluxes are indeed driven by the ocean and may force the atmosphere, whereas on shorter timescales the converse is true, thereby confirming the Bjerknes conjecture. This result, although strongest in boreal winter, is found in all seasons. Our findings suggest that the predictability of mid-latitude North Atlantic air–sea interaction could extend beyond the ocean to the climate of surrounding continents.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
    DOI: 10.1038/nature12268
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 7
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    Advancing Decadal-Scale Climate Prediction in the North Atlantic Sector (2008)
    Nature Publishing Group
    In:  Nature, 453 . pp. 84-88.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-02-18
    Description: The climate of the North Atlantic region exhibits fluctuations on decadal timescales that have large societal consequences. Prominent examples include hurricane activity in the Atlantic1, and surface-temperature and rainfall variations over North America2, Europe3 and northern Africa4. Although these multidecadal variations are potentially predictable if the current state of the ocean is known5, 6, 7, the lack of subsurface ocean observations8 that constrain this state has been a limiting factor for realizing the full skill potential of such predictions9. Here we apply a simple approach—that uses only sea surface temperature (SST) observations—to partly overcome this difficulty and perform retrospective decadal predictions with a climate model. Skill is improved significantly relative to predictions made with incomplete knowledge of the ocean state10, particularly in the North Atlantic and tropical Pacific oceans. Thus these results point towards the possibility of routine decadal climate predictions. Using this method, and by considering both internal natural climate variations and projected future anthropogenic forcing, we make the following forecast: over the next decade, the current Atlantic meridional overturning circulation will weaken to its long-term mean; moreover, North Atlantic SST and European and North American surface temperatures will cool slightly, whereas tropical Pacific SST will remain almost unchanged. Our results suggest that global surface temperature may not increase over the next decade, as natural climate variations in the North Atlantic and tropical Pacific temporarily offset the projected anthropogenic warming.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
    DOI: 10.1038/nature06921
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
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