Publication Date:
2022-05-25
Description:
© The Author(s), 2013. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Quaternary Science Reviews 76 (2013): 16-28, doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2013.05.024.
Description:
A proxy system model may be defined as the complete set of forward and mechanistic processes by which the response of a sensor to environmental forcing is recorded and subsequently observed in a material archive. Proxy system modeling complements and sharpens signal interpretations based solely on statistical analyses and transformations; provides the basis for observing network optimization, hypothesis testing, and data-model comparisons for uncertainty estimation; and may be incorporated as weak but mechanistically-plausible constraints into paleoclimatic reconstruction algorithms. Following a review illustrating these applications, we recommend future research pathways, including development of intermediate proxy system models for important sensors, archives, and observations; linking proxy system models to climate system models; hypothesis development and evaluation; more realistic multi-archive, multi-observation network design; examination of proxy system behavior under extreme conditions; and generalized modeling of the total uncertainty in paleoclimate reconstructions derived from paleo-observations.
Description:
MNE and DMT were funded by
NOAA/C2D2 grant NA10OAR4310115; SETW gratefully acknowledges
support from an American Association of UniversityWomen
Dissertation Fellowship. Work cited in this review was supported
by NSF grants 0349356, 0724802 and 0902715, NOAA grants
NA06OAR4310115 and NA08OAR4310682, and the University
of Arizona’s Department of Geosciences and Institute of the
Environment.
Keywords:
Forward modeling
;
Observational network optimization
;
Data-model comparison
;
Hypothesis evaluation
;
Reconstruction
;
Uncertainty modeling
Repository Name:
Woods Hole Open Access Server
Type:
Article
Format:
application/pdf
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