Description: © The Author(s), 2013. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Biogeosciences 10 (2013): 193-216, doi:10.5194/bg-10-193-2013.

Description: Due to seasonal upwelling, the upper ocean waters of the California Current System (CCS) have a naturally low pH and aragonite saturation state (Ωarag), making this region particularly prone to the effects of ocean acidification. Here, we use the Regional Oceanic Modeling System (ROMS) to conduct preindustrial and transient (1995–2050) simulations of ocean biogeochemistry in the CCS. The transient simulations were forced with increasing atmospheric pCO2 and increasing oceanic dissolved inorganic carbon concentrations at the lateral boundaries, as projected by the NCAR CSM 1.4 model for the IPCC SRES A2 scenario. Our results show a large seasonal variability in pH (range of ~ 0.14) and Ωarag (~ 0.2) for the nearshore areas (50 km from shore). This variability is created by the interplay of physical and biogeochemical processes. Despite this large variability, we find that present-day pH and Ωarag have already moved outside of their simulated preindustrial variability envelopes (defined by ±1 temporal standard deviation) due to the rapidly increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2. The nearshore surface pH of the northern and central CCS are simulated to move outside of their present-day variability envelopes by the mid-2040s and late 2030s, respectively. This transition may occur even earlier for nearshore surface Ωarag, which is projected to depart from its present-day variability envelope by the early- to mid-2030s. The aragonite saturation horizon of the central CCS is projected to shoal into the upper 75 m within the next 25 yr, causing near-permanent undersaturation in subsurface waters. Due to the model's overestimation of Ωarag, this transition may occur even earlier than simulated by the model. Overall, our study shows that the CCS joins the Arctic and Southern oceans as one of only a few known ocean regions presently approaching the dual threshold of widespread and near-permanent undersaturation with respect to aragonite and a departure from its variability envelope. In these regions, organisms may be forced to rapidly adjust to conditions that are both inherently chemically challenging and also substantially different from past conditions.

Description: C. H. was supported by the European Project of Ocean Acidification (EPOCA), which received funding from the European Community’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007–2013) under grant agreement no. 211384. EPOCA is endorsed by the international programs Integrated Marine Biogeochemistry and Ecosystem Research (IMBER), Land-Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone (LOICZ), and Surface Ocean Lower Atmosphere Study (SOLAS). C. H., M. V., Z. L., A. M. P. M. and N. G. also acknowledge support by ETH Zurich. S. D. acknowledges support from NASA-NNX11AF55G.

Description: © The Author(s), 2013. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Biogeosciences 10 (2013): 1983-2000, doi:10.5194/bg-10-1983-2013.

Description: The globally integrated sea–air anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) flux from 1990 to 2009 is determined from models and data-based approaches as part of the Regional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP) project. Numerical methods include ocean inverse models, atmospheric inverse models, and ocean general circulation models with parameterized biogeochemistry (OBGCMs). The median value of different approaches shows good agreement in average uptake. The best estimate of anthropogenic CO2 uptake for the time period based on a compilation of approaches is −2.0 Pg C yr−1. The interannual variability in the sea–air flux is largely driven by large-scale climate re-organizations and is estimated at 0.2 Pg C yr−1 for the two decades with some systematic differences between approaches. The largest differences between approaches are seen in the decadal trends. The trends range from −0.13 (Pg C yr−1) decade−1 to −0.50 (Pg C yr−1) decade−1 for the two decades under investigation. The OBGCMs and the data-based sea–air CO2 flux estimates show appreciably smaller decadal trends than estimates based on changes in carbon inventory suggesting that methods capable of resolving shorter timescales are showing a slowing of the rate of ocean CO2 uptake. RECCAP model outputs for five decades show similar differences in trends between approaches.

Description: RW, G-HP., RAF were supported in part through the Global Carbon Data Management and Synthesis Project of the NOAA Climate Program Office. NG and HG were supported by funds from ETH Zurich and through the FP7 projects CarboChange (Project reference 264879) and GeoCarbon. CS was supported by grants, NSF/OPP 0944761 and NOAA NA12OAR4310058. SCD acknowledges support through the NOAA Climate Process Team activity, NOAA grant NA07OAR4310098. CH and JS were supported through EU FP7 project COMBINE (grant agreement no. 226520), the Research Council of Norway funded project CarboSeason (185105/S30), the Norwegian Metacenter for Computational Science and Storage Infrastructure (NOTUR and Norstore, “Biogeochemical Earth system modeling” projects nn2980k and ns2980k) and the core project BIOFEEDBACK of the Centre for Climate Dynamics (SKD) within the Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research.

Description: © The Author(s), 2016. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Biogeosciences 13 (2016): 5065-5083, doi:10.5194/bg-13-5065-2016.

Description: One of the major challenges to assessing the impact of ocean acidification on marine life is detecting and interpreting long-term change in the context of natural variability. This study addresses this need through a global synthesis of monthly pH and aragonite saturation state (Ωarag) climatologies for 12 open ocean, coastal, and coral reef locations using 3-hourly moored observations of surface seawater partial pressure of CO2 and pH collected together since as early as 2010. Mooring observations suggest open ocean subtropical and subarctic sites experience present-day surface pH and Ωarag conditions outside the bounds of preindustrial variability throughout most, if not all, of the year. In general, coastal mooring sites experience more natural variability and thus, more overlap with preindustrial conditions; however, present-day Ωarag conditions surpass biologically relevant thresholds associated with ocean acidification impacts on Mytilus californianus (Ωarag 〈 1.8) and Crassostrea gigas (Ωarag 〈 2.0) larvae in the California Current Ecosystem (CCE) and Mya arenaria larvae in the Gulf of Maine (Ωarag 〈 1.6). At the most variable mooring locations in coastal systems of the CCE, subseasonal conditions approached Ωarag =  1. Global and regional models and data syntheses of ship-based observations tended to underestimate seasonal variability compared to mooring observations. Efforts such as this to characterize all patterns of pH and Ωarag variability and change at key locations are fundamental to assessing present-day biological impacts of ocean acidification, further improving experimental design to interrogate organism response under real-world conditions, and improving predictive models and vulnerability assessments seeking to quantify the broader impacts of ocean acidification.

Description: The CO2 and ocean acidification observations were funded by NOAA’s Climate Observation Division (COD) in the Climate Program Office and NOAA’s Ocean Acidification Program. The maintenance of the Stratus and WHOTS Ocean Reference Stations were also supported by NOAA COD (NA09OAR4320129). Additional support for buoy equipment, maintenance, and/or ancillary measurements was provided by NOAA through the US Integrated Ocean Observing System office: for the La Parguera buoy under a Cooperative Agreement (NA11NOS0120035) with the Caribbean Coastal Ocean Observing System, for the Chá b˘a buoy under a Cooperative Agreement (NA11NOS0120036) with the Northwest Association of Networked Ocean Observing System, for the Gray’s Reef buoy under a Cooperative Agreement (NA11NOS0120033) with the Southeast Coastal Ocean Observing Regional Association, and for the Gulf of Main buoy under a Cooperative Agreement (NA11NOS0120034) with the Northeastern Regional Association of Coastal and Ocean Observing Systems.

Description: © The Author(s), 2014. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Biogeosciences 11 (2014): 709-734, doi:10.5194/bg-11-709-2014.

Description: Air–sea CO2 fluxes over the Pacific Ocean are known to be characterized by coherent large-scale structures that reflect not only ocean subduction and upwelling patterns, but also the combined effects of wind-driven gas exchange and biology. On the largest scales, a large net CO2 influx into the extratropics is associated with a robust seasonal cycle, and a large net CO2 efflux from the tropics is associated with substantial interannual variability. In this work, we have synthesized estimates of the net air–sea CO2 flux from a variety of products, drawing upon a variety of approaches in three sub-basins of the Pacific Ocean, i.e., the North Pacific extratropics (18–66° N), the tropical Pacific (18° S–18° N), and the South Pacific extratropics (44.5–18° S). These approaches include those based on the measurements of CO2 partial pressure in surface seawater (pCO2sw), inversions of ocean-interior CO2 data, forward ocean biogeochemistry models embedded in the ocean general circulation models (OBGCMs), a model with assimilation of pCO2sw data, and inversions of atmospheric CO2 measurements. Long-term means, interannual variations and mean seasonal variations of the regionally integrated fluxes were compared in each of the sub-basins over the last two decades, spanning the period from 1990 through 2009. A simple average of the long-term mean fluxes obtained with surface water pCO2 diagnostics and those obtained with ocean-interior CO2 inversions are −0.47 ± 0.13 Pg C yr−1 in the North Pacific extratropics, +0.44 ± 0.14 Pg C yr−1 in the tropical Pacific, and −0.37 ± 0.08 Pg C yr−1 in the South Pacific extratropics, where positive fluxes are into the atmosphere. This suggests that approximately half of the CO2 taken up over the North and South Pacific extratropics is released back to the atmosphere from the tropical Pacific. These estimates of the regional fluxes are also supported by the estimates from OBGCMs after adding the riverine CO2 flux, i.e., −0.49 ± 0.02 Pg C yr−1 in the North Pacific extratropics, +0.41 ± 0.05 Pg C yr−1 in the tropical Pacific, and −0.39 ± 0.11 Pg C yr−1 in the South Pacific extratropics. The estimates from the atmospheric CO2 inversions show large variations amongst different inversion systems, but their median fluxes are consistent with the estimates from climatological pCO2sw data and pCO2sw diagnostics. In the South Pacific extratropics, where CO2 variations in the surface and ocean interior are severely undersampled, the difference in the air–sea CO2 flux estimates between the diagnostic models and ocean-interior CO2 inversions is larger (0.18 Pg C yr−1). The range of estimates from forward OBGCMs is also large (−0.19 to −0.72 Pg C yr−1). Regarding interannual variability of air–sea CO2 fluxes, positive and negative anomalies are evident in the tropical Pacific during the cold and warm events of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation in the estimates from pCO2sw diagnostic models and from OBGCMs. They are consistent in phase with the Southern Oscillation Index, but the peak-to-peak amplitudes tend to be higher in OBGCMs (0.40 ± 0.09 Pg C yr−1) than in the diagnostic models (0.27 ± 0.07 Pg C yr−1).

Description: M. Ishii acknowledges the Meteorological Research Institute’s priority research fund for ocean carbon cycle changes, JSPS Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B) No. 22310017, and MEXT Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research on Innovative Areas No. 24121003. Support for K. B. Rodgers came under awards NA17RJ2612 and NA08OAR4320752, and support for K. B. Rodgers and R. A. Feely from the NOAA Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR) through the office of Climate Observations (OCO), as well as by funds from NASA’s Research Opportunities in Space and Earth Sciences through award #NNX09AI13G. SMF’s contributions were funded through the NIWA National Centre for Atmosphere’s core research funding. S. C. Doney and I. Lima acknowledge support from US National Science Foundation award AGS-1048827. E. T. Buitenhuis acknowledges support from the EU (CarboChange, contract 264879). A. Lenton acknowledges support from the Australian Climate Change Science Program. T. Takahashi is supported by grants from the NOAA (NA08OAR4320754) and the Comer Science and Education Foundation (CSEF CP70).