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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2022-01-31
    Description: Radiative forcing from volcanic aerosol impacts surface temperatures; however, the background climate state also affects the response. A key question thus concerns whether constraining forcing estimates is more important than constraining initial conditions for accurate simulation and attribution of posteruption climate anomalies. Here we test whether different realistic volcanic forcing magnitudes for the 1815 Tambora eruption yield distinguishable ensemble surface temperature responses. We perform a cluster analysis on a superensemble of climate simulations including three 30-member ensembles using the same set of initial conditions but different volcanic forcings based on uncertainty estimates. Results clarify how forcing uncertainties can overwhelm initial-condition spread in boreal summer due to strong direct radiative impact, while the effect of initial conditions predominate in winter, when dynamics contribute to large ensemble spread. In our setup, current uncertainties affecting reconstruction-simulation comparisons prevent conclusions about the magnitude of the Tambora eruption and its relation to the “year without summer.”
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: text
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2022-01-31
    Description: The climate of the last two millennia was characterised by decadal to multi‐centennial variations which were recorded in terrestrial records and had important societal impacts. The cause of these climatic events is still under debate but changes in the North Atlantic circulation have often been proposed to play an important role. In this review we compile available high‐resolution paleoceanographic datasets from the northern North Atlantic and Nordic Seas. The records are grouped into regions related to modern ocean conditions and their variability is discussed. We additionally discuss our current knowledge from modelling studies, with a specific focus on the dynamical changes that are not well inferred from the proxy records. An illustration is provided through the analysis of two climate model ensembles and an individual simulation of the last millennium. This review thereby provides an up‐to‐date paleo‐perspective on the North Atlantic multidecadal to multi‐centennial ocean variability across the last two millennia.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 3
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    AGU (American Geophysical Union)
    In:  Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 104 (C9). 21,123-21,136.
    Publication Date: 2018-04-17
    Description: The modification of the exchange flow in a deep southern hemisphere passage, resembling the Vema Channel, by frictionally induced secondary circulation is investigated numerically. The hydrostatic primitive equation model is a two-dimensional version of the sigma-coordinate Princeton Ocean Model. The time dependent response of a stratified along-channel flow, forced by barotropic or baroclinic pressure gradients, is examined. Near the bottom, where the along-channel now is retarded, there is cross-channel Ekman nux that is associated with downwelling on the eastern side and upwelling on the western side of the channel. In the presence of stratification the cross-channel flow rearranges the density structure, which in turn acts on the along-channel velocity via the thermal wind relation. Eventually the cross-isobath Ekman flux is shut down. In the case of baroclinically driven flow of Antarctic Bottom Water through the Vema Channel the model reproduces the observed shape of the deep temperature profiles and their cross-channel asymmetry. The model offers an explanation that is alternative or supplementary to inviscid multilayer hydraulic theory that;was proposed in earlier studies. It explains the extremely thick bottom boundary layers in the center and on the western slope of the channel. The deep thermocline is spread out in the west and sharpened in the east, and the coldest water is found on the eastern side of the deep trough; The modified density field reduces the along-channel flow near the bottom and focuses it into a narrow jet on the eastern side of the channel.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2023-01-03
    Description: A new release of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model version 1.2 (MPI-ESM1.2) is presented. The development focused on correcting errors in and improving the physical processes representation, as well as improving the computational performance, versatility, and overall user friendliness. In addition to new radiation and aerosol parameterizations of the atmosphere, several relatively large, but partly compensating, coding errors in the model's cloud, convection, and turbulence parameterizations were corrected. The representation of land processes was refined by introducing a multilayer soil hydrology scheme, extending the land biogeochemistry to include the nitrogen cycle, replacing the soil and litter decomposition model and improving the representation of wildfires. The ocean biogeochemistry now represents cyanobacteria prognostically in order to capture the response of nitrogen fixation to changing climate conditions and further includes improved detritus settling and numerous other refinements. As something new, in addition to limiting drift and minimizing certain biases, the instrumental record warming was explicitly taken into account during the tuning process. To this end, a very high climate sensitivity of around 7 K caused by low-level clouds in the tropics as found in an intermediate model version was addressed, as it was not deemed possible to match observed warming otherwise. As a result, the model has a climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO2 over preindustrial conditions of 2.77 K, maintaining the previously identified highly nonlinear global mean response to increasing CO2 forcing, which nonetheless can be represented by a simple two-layer model.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2024-02-07
    Description: The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a key feature of the North Atlantic with global ocean impacts. The AMOC's response to past changes in forcings during the Holocene provides important context for the coming centuries. Here, we investigate AMOC trends using an emerging set of transient simulations using multiple global climate models for the past 6,000 years. Although some models show changes, no consistent trend in overall AMOC strength during the mid-to-late Holocene emerges from the ensemble. We interpret this result to suggest no overall change in AMOC, which fits with our assessment of available proxy reconstructions. The decadal variability of the AMOC does not change in ensemble during the mid- and late-Holocene. There are interesting AMOC changes seen in the early Holocene, but their nature depends a lot on which inputs are used to drive the experiment.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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