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  • American Meteorological Society  (7)
  • Unknown  (7)
  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Global Meteorological Drought: A Synthesis of Current Understanding with a Focus on SST Drivers of Precipitation Deficits
    American Meteorological Society ; 2016
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 29, No. 11 ( 2016-06-01), p. 3989-4019
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 29, No. 11 ( 2016-06-01), p. 3989-4019
    Abstract: Drought affects virtually every region of the world, and potential shifts in its character in a changing climate are a major concern. This article presents a synthesis of current understanding of meteorological drought, with a focus on the large-scale controls on precipitation afforded by sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, land surface feedbacks, and radiative forcings. The synthesis is primarily based on regionally focused articles submitted to the Global Drought Information System (GDIS) collection together with new results from a suite of atmospheric general circulation model experiments intended to integrate those studies into a coherent view of drought worldwide. On interannual time scales, the preeminence of ENSO as a driver of meteorological drought throughout much of the Americas, eastern Asia, Australia, and the Maritime Continent is now well established, whereas in other regions (e.g., Europe, Africa, and India), the response to ENSO is more ephemeral or nonexistent. Northern Eurasia, central Europe, and central and eastern Canada stand out as regions with few SST-forced impacts on precipitation on interannual time scales. Decadal changes in SST appear to be a major factor in the occurrence of long-term drought, as highlighted by apparent impacts on precipitation of the late 1990s “climate shifts” in the Pacific and Atlantic SST. Key remaining research challenges include (i) better quantification of unforced and forced atmospheric variability as well as land–atmosphere feedbacks, (ii) better understanding of the physical basis for the leading modes of climate variability and their predictability, and (iii) quantification of the relative contributions of internal decadal SST variability and forced climate change to long-term drought.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0452.1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2016
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Response of Southern China Winter Rainfall to El Niño Diversity and Its Relevance to Projected Southern China Rainfall Change
    American Meteorological Society ; 2019
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 32, No. 11 ( 2019-06-01), p. 3343-3356
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 32, No. 11 ( 2019-06-01), p. 3343-3356
    Abstract: Responding to El Niño diversity, greater winter southern China (SC) rainfall is associated with an anomalous warming in the eastern tropical Pacific, but less rainfall with an anomalous warming in the central tropical Pacific. Compared with other widely used indices, the first two principal components of sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific better represent the influences of the different El Niño anomaly patterns on winter SC rainfall. This is because these two indices can distinguish a zonal shift of the west North Pacific anticyclone, which conveys the tropical Pacific influence on SC rainfall. At a positive phase, the first principal component features a pattern similar to that of a canonical El Niño, whereas the second component is characterized by a warming in the central Pacific. Based on these two indices, performance of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project models in simulating the SC rainfall response to El Niño is evaluated. About half of the models cannot reproduce the response to either principal component. The majority of the remaining models can only simulate the response to one principal component, and only five models produce a reasonable response to both principal components. Importantly, changes to SC rainfall in the future depend on the simulation of the SC rainfall response. Models that simulate the teleconnection of SC rainfall with only the first (second) principal component project an increase (decrease) in SC rainfall. Projection of a rainfall change in models that simulate the teleconnection with both principal components, that is, a moderate increase in SC winter rainfall, is more credible.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0571.1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2019
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Indonesian Throughflow Variability and Linkage to ENSO and IOD in an Ensemble of CMIP5 Models
    American Meteorological Society ; 2022
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 35, No. 10 ( 2022-05-15), p. 3161-3178
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 35, No. 10 ( 2022-05-15), p. 3161-3178
    Abstract: Understanding variability of the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) and its links to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD), and how they are represented across climate models constitutes an important step toward improved future climate projections. These issues are examined using 20 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and the SODA-2.2.4 ocean reanalysis. It is found that the CMIP5 models overall simulate aspects of ITF variability, such as spectral and vertical structure, that are consistent with the reanalysis, although intermodel differences are substantial. The ITF variability is shown to exhibit two dominant principal vertical structures: a surface-intensified transport anomaly (ITF M1 ) and an anomalous transport characterized by opposing flows in the surface and subsurface (ITF M2 ). In the CMIP5 models and reanalysis, ITF M2 is linked to both ENSO and the IOD via anomalous Indo-Pacific Walker circulation. The driver of ITF M1 however differs between the reanalysis and the CMIP5 models. In the reanalysis ITF M1 is a delayed response to ENSO, whereas in the CMIP5 models it is linked to the IOD associated with the overly strong IOD amplitude bias. Further, the CMIP5 ITF variability tends to be weaker than in the reanalysis, due to a tendency for the CMIP5 models to simulate a delayed IOD in response to ENSO. The importance in considering the vertical structure of ITF variability in understanding ENSO and IOD impact is further underscored by the close link between greenhouse-forced changes in ENSO variability and projected changes in subsurface ITF variability.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    URL: Article
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0485.1
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0485.s1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 4
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    Online Resource
    Stronger Increase in the Frequency of Extreme Convective than Extreme Warm El Niño Events under Greenhouse Warming
    American Meteorological Society ; 2020
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 33, No. 2 ( 2020-01-15), p. 675-690
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 33, No. 2 ( 2020-01-15), p. 675-690
    Abstract: Since 1979, three extreme El Niño events occurred, in 1982/83, 1997/98, and 2015/16, with pronounced impacts that disrupted global weather patterns, agriculture, fisheries, and ecosystems. Although all three episodes are referred to as strong equatorial eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events, the 2015/16 event is considered a mixed regime of both EP and central Pacific (CP) El Niño. During such extreme events, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies peak over the EP region, hereafter referred to as an extreme warm El Niño (ExtWarmEN) event. Simultaneously, the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) moves southward to the usually dry and cold Niño-3 region, resulting in dramatic rainfall increases to more than 5 mm day −1 averaged over boreal winter, referred to as an extreme convective El Niño (ExtConEN) event. However, in climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) that are able to simulate both types of events, ExtConEN events are found not to always coincide with ExtWarmEN events and the disassociation becomes more distinct under greenhouse warming when the increased frequency of ExtConEN events is notably larger than that of ExtWarmEN events. The disassociation highlights the role of eastward migration of western Pacific convection and equatorward shift of the South Pacific convergence zone associated with the faster warming over the EP region as a result of greenhouse warming.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0376.1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2020
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Impacts of Low-Frequency Internal Climate Variability and Greenhouse Warming on El Niño–Southern Oscillation
    American Meteorological Society ; 2021
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 34, No. 6 ( 2021-03), p. 2205-2218
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 34, No. 6 ( 2021-03), p. 2205-2218
    Abstract: El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of interannual climate fluctuations with wide-ranging socioeconomic and environmental impacts. Understanding the eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) El Niño response to a warmer climate is paramount, yet the role of internal climate variability in modulating their response is not clear. Using large ensembles, we find that internal variability generates a spread in the standard deviation and skewness of these two El Niño types that is similar to the spread of 17 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) that realistically simulate ENSO diversity. Based on 40 Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) and 99 Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Grand Ensemble (MPI-GE) members, unforced variability can explain more than 90% of the historical EP and CP El Niño standard deviation and all of the ENSO skewness spread in the 17 CMIP5 models. Both CESM-LE and the selected CMIP5 models show increased EP and CP El Niño variability in a warmer climate, driven by a stronger mean vertical temperature gradient in the upper ocean and faster surface warming of the eastern equatorial Pacific. However, MPI-GE shows no agreement in EP or CP standard deviation change. This is due to weaker sensitivity to the warming signal, such that when the eastern equatorial Pacific surface warming is faster, the change in upper ocean vertical temperature gradient tends to be weaker. This highlights that individual models produce a different ENSO response in a warmer climate, and that considerable uncertainty within the CMIP5 ensemble may be caused by internal climate variability.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    URL: Article
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0232.1
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0232.s1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 6
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    The Indian Ocean weakens ENSO Spring Predictability Barrier: Role of the Indian Ocean Basin and Dipole modes
    American Meteorological Society ; 2023
    In:  Journal of Climate ( 2023-09-08)
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, ( 2023-09-08)
    Abstract: Prediction of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is hindered by a spring predictability barrier (SPB). In this paper, we investigate effects of the Indian Ocean (IO) on the SPB. Using a seasonally-varying extended IO-ENSO recharge oscillator model, we find that the SPB is much weakened when IO is coupled with ENSO. In order to gauge the relative role of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the Indian Ocean Basin (IOB) modes in weakening ENSO SPB, we develop an empirical dynamical model – Linear Inverse Model (LIM). By coupling/decoupling IOB or IOD with ENSO, we show that the IOB significantly weakens Eastern Pacific and Central Pacific ENSO SPBs, while the IOD plays a weaker role. The evolution of the optimum initial structures also illustrates the importance of the IOB in ENSO SPB. Moreover, the IOB strongly influences the forecast skill of La Niña SPB rather than El Niño SPB. This point is also identified through six coupled models from North American multimodel ensemble. It may be related to the role of IO in the asymmetry in the duration of El Niño and La Niña. The IOB-induced easterly wind anomalies are conducive to the development of La Niña and thus the prediction of La Niña events, while these anomalous easterlies are less important during the development of El Niño and the related forecast of El Niño events.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0800.1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2023
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 7
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Seasonally Alternate Roles of the North Pacific Oscillation and the South Pacific Oscillation in Tropical Pacific Zonal Wind and ENSO
    American Meteorological Society ; 2023
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 36, No. 13 ( 2023-07-01), p. 4393-4411
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 36, No. 13 ( 2023-07-01), p. 4393-4411
    Abstract: The western-central equatorial Pacific (WCEP) zonal wind affects El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) by involving a series of multiscale air–sea interactions. Its interannual variation contributes the most to ENSO amplitude. Thus, understanding the predictability of the WCEP interannual wind is of great importance for better predictions of ENSO. Here, we show that the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) and the South Pacific Oscillation (SPO) alternate in fueling this interannual wind from late boreal winter to austral winter in the presence of background trade winds in different hemispheres. During the boreal winter–spring, the NPO registers footprints in the tropics by benefiting from the Pacific meridional mode and modulating the northwestern Pacific intertropical convergence zone (NITCZ). However, as austral winter approaches, the SPO takes over the role of the NPO in maintaining the anomalous NITCZ. Moreover, the interannual wind is further driven to the east in the positive phase of the SPO, by intensified central-eastern equatorial Pacific convection resulting from tropical–extratropical heat flux adjustments. A reconstructed WCEP interannual wind index involving only the NPO and the SPO possesses a long lead time for ENSO prediction of nearly one year. These two extratropical boosters enhance the viability of equatorial Pacific zonal wind anomalies associated with the large growth rate of ENSO, and the one in the winter hemisphere seems to be more efficient in forcing the tropics. Our result further indicates that the NPO benefits a long-lead prediction of the WCEP interannual wind and ENSO, while the SPO is the dominant extratropical predictor of ENSO amplitude. Significance Statement ENSO is closely linked to the interannual variability of equatorial Pacific zonal wind, and ENSO prediction is impeded by the weak predictability of the wind. We have found that the North Pacific Oscillation and the South Pacific Oscillation take turns in affecting the interannual variability of the zonal wind from the late boreal winter to austral winter, and the winter hemisphere extratropical booster is more efficient in modulating tropical convection and the associated surface winds. An estimated zonal wind index constructed by the two extratropical precursors possesses a long lead time for ENSO prediction. Our result provides useful information for better predicting ENSO by further considering winter hemisphere extratropical climate variability.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0461.1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2023
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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