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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2009
    In:  Climate Dynamics Vol. 32, No. 1 ( 2009-1), p. 125-141
    In: Climate Dynamics, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 32, No. 1 ( 2009-1), p. 125-141
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0930-7575 , 1432-0894
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2009
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 382992-3
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1471747-5
    SSG: 16,13
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  • 2
    In: The Lancet, Elsevier BV, Vol. 393, No. 10168 ( 2019-01), p. 265-274
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0140-6736
    RVK:
    Language: English
    Publisher: Elsevier BV
    Publication Date: 2019
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2067452-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 3306-6
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1476593-7
    SSG: 5,21
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  • 3
    In: Applied Geography, Elsevier BV, Vol. 44 ( 2013-10), p. 12-22
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0143-6228
    Language: English
    Publisher: Elsevier BV
    Publication Date: 2013
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1492337-3
    SSG: 14
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  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    IOP Publishing ; 2019
    In:  Environmental Research Letters Vol. 14, No. 11 ( 2019-11-01), p. 114029-
    In: Environmental Research Letters, IOP Publishing, Vol. 14, No. 11 ( 2019-11-01), p. 114029-
    Abstract: The frequency, intensity and duration of heat waves are all expected to increase as the climate warms in response to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. The focus of this study is on another dimension of heat waves, their spatial extent, something that has not been studied systematically by researchers but has important implications for associated impacts. Of particular interest are spatially contiguous heat wave regions, examined here over the conterminous US for the May–September season in both the current climate and climate model projections from the CMIP5 archive (11 models total) using the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 radiative forcing scenarios. Given their myriad impacts, heat waves are defined using multiple temperature variables, one which includes atmospheric moisture. In addition to their spatial extent, several other physical attributes are computed across contiguous heat wave regions, including a proxy for energy use. An estimate of the human population exposed to current and future heat waves is also evaluated. We find that historical climate model simulations, in aggregate, show good fidelity in capturing key characteristics of heat waves in the current climate while projections show a substantial increase in spatial extent and other attributes by mid-century under both scenarios, though generally less for RCP4.5, as expected. Overall, the study presents a framework for examining the behavior, and associated impacts, of a frequently overlooked aspect of heat waves. The projected increases in the spatial extent and other attributes of heat waves reported here provides a new perspective on some of the potential consequences of the continued increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1748-9326
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: IOP Publishing
    Publication Date: 2019
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2255379-4
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  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    American Meteorological Society ; 2012
    In:  Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology Vol. 51, No. 7 ( 2012-07), p. 1238-1252
    In: Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 51, No. 7 ( 2012-07), p. 1238-1252
    Abstract: The prospects for U.S. seasonal drought prediction are assessed by diagnosing simulation and hindcast skill of drought indicators during 1982–2008. The 6-month standardized precipitation index is used as the primary drought indicator. The skill of unconditioned, persistence forecasts serves as the baseline against which the performance of dynamical methods is evaluated. Predictions conditioned on the state of global sea surface temperatures (SST) are assessed using atmospheric climate simulations conducted in which observed SSTs are specified. Predictions conditioned on the initial states of atmosphere, land surfaces, and oceans are next analyzed using coupled climate-model experiments. The persistence of the drought indicator yields considerable seasonal skill, with a region’s annual cycle of precipitation driving a strong seasonality in baseline skill. The unconditioned forecast skill for drought is greatest during a region’s climatological dry season and is least during a wet season. Dynamical models forced by observed global SSTs yield increased skill relative to this baseline, with improvements realized during the cold season over regions where precipitation is sensitive to El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Fully coupled initialized model hindcasts yield little additional skill relative to the uninitialized SST-forced simulations. In particular, neither of these dynamical seasonal forecasts materially increases summer skill for the drought indicator over the Great Plains, a consequence of small SST sensitivity of that region’s summer rainfall and the small impact of antecedent soil moisture conditions, on average, upon the summer rainfall. The fully initialized predictions for monthly forecasts appreciably improve on the seasonal skill, however, especially during winter and spring over the northern Great Plains.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1558-8424 , 1558-8432
    RVK:
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2012
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2227779-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2227759-6
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  • 6
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene ; 2017
    In:  The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene Vol. 97, No. 3_Suppl ( 2017-09-27), p. 32-45
    In: The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, Vol. 97, No. 3_Suppl ( 2017-09-27), p. 32-45
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0002-9637 , 1476-1645
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
    Publication Date: 2017
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1491674-5
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  • 7
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    American Meteorological Society ; 2015
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 28, No. 24 ( 2015-12-15), p. 9789-9802
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 28, No. 24 ( 2015-12-15), p. 9789-9802
    Abstract: East Africa has two rainy seasons: the long rains [March–May (MAM)] and the short rains [October–December (OND)] . Most CMIP3/5 coupled models overestimate the short rains while underestimating the long rains. In this study, the East African rainfall bias is investigated by comparing the coupled historical simulations from CMIP5 to the corresponding SST-forced AMIP simulations. Much of the investigation is focused on the MRI-CGCM3 model, which successfully reproduces the observed rainfall annual cycle in East Africa in the AMIP experiment but its coupled historical simulation has a similar but stronger bias as the coupled multimodel mean. The historical–AMIP monthly climatology rainfall bias in East Africa can be explained by the bias in the convective instability (CI), which is dominated by the near-surface moisture static energy (MSE) and ultimately by the MSE’s moisture component. The near-surface MSE bias is modulated by the sea surface temperature (SST) over the western Indian Ocean. The warm SST bias in OND can be explained by both insufficient ocean dynamical cooling and latent flux, while the insufficient shortwave radiation and excess latent heat flux mainly contribute to the cool SST bias in MAM.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    RVK:
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2015
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 8
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 29, No. 11 ( 2016-06-01), p. 3989-4019
    Abstract: Drought affects virtually every region of the world, and potential shifts in its character in a changing climate are a major concern. This article presents a synthesis of current understanding of meteorological drought, with a focus on the large-scale controls on precipitation afforded by sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, land surface feedbacks, and radiative forcings. The synthesis is primarily based on regionally focused articles submitted to the Global Drought Information System (GDIS) collection together with new results from a suite of atmospheric general circulation model experiments intended to integrate those studies into a coherent view of drought worldwide. On interannual time scales, the preeminence of ENSO as a driver of meteorological drought throughout much of the Americas, eastern Asia, Australia, and the Maritime Continent is now well established, whereas in other regions (e.g., Europe, Africa, and India), the response to ENSO is more ephemeral or nonexistent. Northern Eurasia, central Europe, and central and eastern Canada stand out as regions with few SST-forced impacts on precipitation on interannual time scales. Decadal changes in SST appear to be a major factor in the occurrence of long-term drought, as highlighted by apparent impacts on precipitation of the late 1990s “climate shifts” in the Pacific and Atlantic SST. Key remaining research challenges include (i) better quantification of unforced and forced atmospheric variability as well as land–atmosphere feedbacks, (ii) better understanding of the physical basis for the leading modes of climate variability and their predictability, and (iii) quantification of the relative contributions of internal decadal SST variability and forced climate change to long-term drought.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    RVK:
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2016
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 9
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    American Meteorological Society ; 2015
    In:  Journal of Hydrometeorology Vol. 16, No. 3 ( 2015-06-01), p. 1409-1424
    In: Journal of Hydrometeorology, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 16, No. 3 ( 2015-06-01), p. 1409-1424
    Abstract: Precipitation forecasts from six climate models in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) are combined with observed precipitation data to generate forecasts of the standardized precipitation index (SPI) for global land areas, and their skill was evaluated over the period 1982–2010. The skill of monthly precipitation forecasts from the NMME is also assessed. The value-added utility in using the NMME models to predict the SPI is identified by comparing the skill of its forecasts with a baseline skill based solely on the inherent persistence characteristics of the SPI itself. As expected, skill of the NMME-generated SPI forecasts depends on the season, location, and specific index considered (the 3- and 6-month SPI were evaluated). In virtually all locations and seasons, statistically significant skill is found at lead times of 1–2 months, although the skill comes largely from initial conditions. Added skill from the NMME is primarily in regions exhibiting El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections. Knowledge of the initial drought state is critical in SPI prediction, and there are considerable differences in observed SPI values between different datasets. Root-mean-square differences between datasets can exceed typical thresholds for drought, particularly in the tropics. This is particularly problematic for precipitation products available in near–real time. Thus, in the near term, the largest advances in the global prediction of meteorological drought are obtainable from improvements in near-real-time precipitation observations for the globe. In the longer term, improvements in precipitation forecast skill from dynamical models will be essential in this effort.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1525-755X , 1525-7541
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2015
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2042176-X
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  • 10
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    American Meteorological Society ; 2001
    In:  Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Vol. 82, No. 6s ( 2001-06-01), p. S1-S56
    In: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 82, No. 6s ( 2001-06-01), p. S1-S56
    Abstract: The global climate in 2000 was again influenced by the long-running Pacific cold episode (La Niña) that began in mid-1998. Consistent with past cold episodes, enhanced convection occurred across the climatologically convective regions of Indonesia and the western equatorial Pacific, while convection was suppressed in the central Pacific. The La Niña was also associated with a well-defined African easterly jet located north of its climatological mean position and low vertical wind shear in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean, both of which contributed to an active North Atlantic hurricane season. Precipitation patterns influenced by typical La Niña conditions included 1) above-average rainfall in southeastern Africa, 2) unusually heavy rainfall in northern and central regions of Australia, 3) enhanced precipitation in the tropical Indian Ocean and western tropical Pacific, 4) little rainfall in the central tropical Pacific, 5) below-normal precipitation over equatorial east Africa, and 6) drier-than-normal conditions along the Gulf coast of the United States. Although no hurricanes made landfall in the United States in 2000, another active North Atlantic hurricane season featured 14 named storms, 8 of which became hurricanes, with 3 growing to major hurricane strength. All of the named storms over the North Atlantic formed during the August–October period with the first hurricane of the season, Hurricane Alberto, notable as the third-longest-lived tropical system since reliable records began in 1945. The primary human loss during the 2000 season occurred in Central America, where Hurricane Gordon killed 19 in Guatemala, and Hurricane Keith killed 19 in Belize and caused $200 million dollars of damage. Other regional events included 1) record warm January–October temperatures followed by record cold November–December temperatures in the United States, 2) extreme drought and widespread wildfires in the southern and western Unites States, 3) continued long-term drought in the Hawaiian Islands throughout the year with record 24-h rainfall totals in November, 4) deadly storms and flooding in western Europe in October, 5) a summer heat wave and drought in southern Europe, 6) monsoon flooding in parts of Southeast Asia and India, 7) extreme winter conditions in Mongolia, 8) extreme long-term drought in the Middle East and Southwest Asia, and 9) severe flooding in southern Africa. Global mean temperatures remained much above average in 2000. The average land and ocean temperature was 0.39°C above the 1880–1999 long-term mean, continuing a trend to warmer-than-average temperatures that made the 1990s the warmest decade on record. While the persistence of La Niña conditions in 2000 was associated with somewhat cooler temperatures in the Tropics, temperatures in the extratropics remained near record levels. Land surface temperatures in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere were notably warmer than normal, with annually averaged anomalies greater than 2°C in parts of Alaska, Canada, Asia, and northern Europe.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0003-0007 , 1520-0477
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2001
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2029396-3
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 419957-1
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