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  • 1
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    Multi-scale observations of deep convection in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea during winter 2012-2013 using multiple platforms (2018)
    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
    In:  Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 123 (3). pp. 1745-1776.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-02-08
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: text
    Format: text
    DOI: 10.1002/2016JC012671
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 2
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    Simulated anthropogenic CO2 storage and acidification of the Mediterranean Sea (2015)
    Copernicus Publications (EGU)
    In:  Biogeosciences (BG), 12 (3). pp. 781-802.
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-10-26
    Description: Constraints on the Mediterranean Sea's storage of anthropogenic CO2 are limited, coming only from data-based approaches that disagree by more than a factor of two. Here we simulate this marginal sea's anthropogenic carbon storage by applying a perturbation approach in a high-resolution regional model. Our model simulates that, between 1800 and 2001, basin-wide CO2 storage by the Mediterranean Sea has increased by 1.0 Pg C, a lower limit based on the model's weak deep-water ventilation, as revealed by evaluation with CFC-12. Furthermore, by testing a data-based approach (transit time distribution) in our model, comparing simulated anthropogenic CO2 to values computed from simulated CFC-12 and physical variables, we conclude that the associated basin-wide storage of 1.7 Pg, published previously, must be an upper bound. Out of the total simulated storage of 1.0 Pg C, 75% comes from the air-sea flux into the Mediterranean Sea and 25% comes from net transport from the Atlantic across the Strait of Gibraltar. Sensitivity tests indicate that the Mediterranean Sea's higher total alkalinity, relative to the global-ocean mean, enhances the Mediterranean's total inventory of anthropogenic carbon by 10%. Yet the corresponding average anthropogenic change in surface pH does not differ significantly from the global-ocean average, despite higher total alkalinity. In Mediterranean deep waters, the pH change is estimated to be between -0.005 and -0.06 pH units.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: text
    Format: archive
    DOI: 10.5194/bg-12-781-2015
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 3
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    Future projections of the surface heat and water budgets of the Mediterranean Sea in an ensemble of coupled atmosphere–ocean regional climate models (2012)
    Springer Verlag GMBH Germany
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-06-22
    Description: Within the CIRCE project ‘‘Climate change and Impact Research: the Mediterranean Environment’’, an ensemble of high resolution coupled atmosphere–ocean regional climate models (AORCMs) are used to simulate the Mediterranean climate for the period 1950–2050. For the first time, realistic net surface air-sea fluxes are obtained. The sea surface temperature (SST) variability is consistent with the atmospheric forcing above it and oce- anic constraints. The surface fluxes respond to external forcing under a warming climate and show an equivalent trend in all models. This study focuses on the present day and on the evolution of the heat and water budget over the Mediterranean Sea under the SRES-A1B scenario. On the contrary to previous studies, the net total heat budget is negative over the present period in all AORCMs and sat- isfies the heat closure budget controlled by a net positive heat gain at the strait of Gibraltar in the present climate. Under climate change scenario, some models predict a warming of the Mediterranean Sea from the ocean surface (positive net heat flux) in addition to the positive flux at the strait of Gibraltar for the 2021–2050 period. The shortwave and latent flux are increasing and the longwave and sen- sible fluxes are decreasing compared to the 1961–1990 period due to a reduction of the cloud cover and an increase in greenhouse gases (GHGs) and SSTs over the 2021–2050 period. The AORCMs provide a good estimates of the water budget with a drying of the region during the twenty- first century. For the ensemble mean, he decrease in pre- cipitation and runoff is about 10 and 15% respectively and the increase in evaporation is much weaker, about 2% compared to the 1961–1990 period which confirm results obtained in recent studies. Despite a clear consistency in the trends and results between the models, this study also underlines important differences in the model set-ups, methodology and choices of some physical parameters inducing some difference in the various air-sea fluxes. An evaluation of the uncertainty sources and possible improvement for future generation of AORCMs highlights the importance of the parameterisation of the ocean albedo, rivers and cloud cover.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1859–1884
    Description: 3.7. Dinamica del clima e dell'oceano
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Mediterranean Sea ; scenarios ; coupled regional climate models ; circe ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 4
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    Evolution of Mediterranean Sea water properties under climate change scenarios in the Med-CORDEX ensemble (2020)
    SPRINGER
    In:  EPIC3Climate Dynamics, SPRINGER, ISSN: 0930-7575
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-01-20
    Description: Twenty-first century projections for the Mediterranean water properties have been analyzed using the largest ensemble of regional climate models (RCMs) available up to now, the Med-CORDEX ensemble. It is comprised by 25 simulations, 10 historical and 15 scenario projections, from which 11 are ocean–atmosphere coupled runs and 4 are ocean forced simulations. Three different emissions scenarios are considered: RCP8.5, RCP4.5 and RCP2.6. All the simulations agree in projecting a warming across the entire Mediterranean basin by the end of the century as a result of the decrease of heat losses to the atmosphere through the sea surface and an increase in the net heat input through the Strait of Gibraltar. The warming will affect the whole water column with higher anomalies in the upper layer. The temperature change projected by the end of the century ranges between 0.81 and 3.71 °C in the upper layer (0–150 m), between 0.82 and 2.97 °C in the intermediate layer (150–600 m) and between 0.15 and 0.18 °C in the deep layer (600 m—bottom). The intensity of the warming is strongly dependent on the choice of emission scenario and, in second order, on the choice of Global Circulation Model (GCM) used to force the RCM. On the other hand, the local structures reproduced by each simulation are mainly determined by the regional model and not by the scenario or the global model. The salinity also increases in all the simulation due to the increase of the freshwater deficit (i.e. the excess of evaporation over precipitation and river runoff) and the related increase in the net salt transport at the Gibraltar Strait. However, in the upper layer this process can be damped or enhanced depending upon the characteristics of the inflowing waters from the Atlantic. This, in turn, depends on the evolution of salinity in the Northeast Atlantic projected by the GCM. Thus a clear zonal gradient is found in most simulations with large positive salinity anomalies in the eastern basin and a freshening of the upper layer of the western basin in most simulations. The salinity changes projected for the whole basin range between 0 and 0.34 psu in the upper layer, between 0.08 and 0.37 psu in the intermediate layer and between − 0.05 and 0.33 in the deep layer. These changes in the temperature and salinity modify in turn the characteristics of the main water masses as the new waters become saltier, warmer and less dense along the twenty-first century. There is a model consensus that the intensity of the deep water formation in the Gulf of Lions is expected to decrease in the future. The rate of decrease remains however very uncertain depending on the scenario and model chosen. At the contrary, there is no model consensus concerning the change in the intensity of the deep water formation in the Adriatic Sea and in the Aegean Sea, although most models also point to a reduction.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 5
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    MED-CORDEX initive for Mediterranean climate studies. (2018)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-05-19
    Description: The Mediterranean is expected to be one of the most prominent and vulnerable climate change “hotspots” of the twenty-first century, and the physical mechanisms underlying this finding are still not clear. Furthermore, complex interactions and feedbacks involving ocean–atmosphere–land–biogeochemical processes play a prominent role in modulating the climate and environment of the Mediterranean region on a range of spatial and temporal scales. Therefore, it is critical to provide robust climate change information for use in vulnerability–impact–adaptation assessment studies considering the Mediterranean as a fully coupled environmental system. The Mediterranean Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (Med-CORDEX) initiative aims at coordinating the Mediterranean climate modeling community toward the development of fully coupled regional climate simulations, improving all relevant components of the system from atmosphere and ocean dynamics to land surface, hydrology, and biogeochemical processes. The primary goals of Med-CORDEX are to improve understanding of past climate variability and trends and to provide more accurate and reliable future projections, assessing in a quantitative and robust way the added value of using high-resolution and coupled regional climate models. The coordination activities and the scientific outcomes of Med-CORDEX can produce an important framework to foster the development of regional Earth system models in several key regions worldwide.
    Description: Published
    Keywords: MED-CORDEX ; Climate changes
    Repository Name: AquaDocs
    Type: Journal Contribution , Refereed
    Format: pp.1187-1208
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