Description: As species respond to warming water temperatures, fishers dependent upon such species are being compelled to make choices concerning harvest strategies. Should they “follow fish” to new fishing grounds? Should they change their mix of target species? Should they relocate their operations to new ports? We examined how fishing communities in the Northeast United States —a hotspot of recent warming—have already responded to documented shifts in the distribution and abundance of fluke, red and silver hake. We focused on groundfish trawl communities that historically targeted these species and examined their “at-sea” responses by combining qualitative interviews with quantitative analysis of fishing records and ecological surveys. Three distinct responses emerged: shifting fishing grounds, shifting target species, and shifting port of landing. Our research finds that following the fish is rare and only occurred in one of the assessed communities, the large trawler community of Beaufort, North Carolina. The more common response was a shift in target species and a change in catch composition. However, regulations and markets often constrained the ability to take advantage of a changing mix of species within fishing grounds. Indeed, the overall species diversity in catch has declined among all of our focal communities suggesting that communities have lost the ability to be flexible when it may be most needed as a response to climate change. Additionally, the high value of fluke and the need to land in southern states with higher quota allocations is likely a driver of the changing nature of “community” with increasing vessels landing outside their home port, especially when landing fluke. Our findings suggest that fidelity to historical fishing grounds combined with perceiving environmental change as non-permanent, predispose many fishers to trust in “cyclicality” and return of species over time. However, this strategy may make those communities unable or unwilling to “follow fish” more vulnerable to changes in distribution and abundance due to climate change. Our findings have the potential to directly inform resource management policies as well as more deliberate adaptations by communities themselves as they strive to address the imminent risks of climate change.

Description: Climate change and deoxygenation are affecting fish stocks on a global scale, but disentangling the impacts of these stressors from the effects of overfishing is a challenge. This study was conducted to distinguish between climate change and mismanagement as possible causes for the drastic decline in spawning stock size and reproductive success in cod (Gadus morhua) and herring (Clupea harengus) in the Western Baltic Sea, when compared with the good or satisfactory status and reproductive success of the other commercial species in the area. Available data on water temperature, wind speed, and plankton bloom during the spawning season did not reveal conclusive correlations between years with good and bad reproductive success of cod or herring. Notably, the other commercial species in the area have very similar life history traits suggesting similar resilience against stress caused by climate change or fishing. The study concludes that severe, sustained overfishing plus inappropriate size selectivity of the main fishing gears have caused the decline in spawning stock biomass of cod and herring to levels that are known to have a high probability of impaired reproductive success. It is pointed out that allowed catches were regulated by management and adhered to by the fishers, meaning that unregulated fishing did not occur. Thus, mismanagement (quotas that were too high and gears that selected too small sizes) and not climate change appears to be the primary cause of the bad status of cod and herring in the Western Baltic Sea.

Description: Scenarios constitute narratives or storylines that reasonably describe how the future is likely to unfold. The usefulness of scenarios in Maritime Spatial Planning (MSP) is now recognised within policy and research, with many institutions urging the development of likely trajectories in the future state of the marine environment and space. However, little progress exists in the actual development and application of actual scenario building approaches. This paper presents the methodology and results of such an approach developed within the framework of the “Geographical and Political Scenarios in Maritime Spatial Planning for the Azores and North Atlantic (GPS Azores)” project. A scenario-building approach for MSP in the area is developed and future scenarios’ storylines are formulated through the active engagement of regional experts. Outcomes from the analysis enable identifying the major risks and opportunities in the management and use of marine space and key maritime sectors, under different scenarios. Three storylines are developed representing distinct trajectories in the use and governance of marine space: (i) Nature at Work; (ii) Business-as-usual; and (iii) Blue Development. Final storylines are the outcome of intense experts’ engagement throughout the scenario-building exercise, stressing the usefulness of such participative approaches. Results can assist policymakers in the context of an adaptive and participatory MSP approach. The methodology can be tailored to other regions, while results can be revisited and adapted as new information and knowledge emerge.

Description: Highlights: • Importance of experts and stakeholders in the process of scenarios-building. • Experts’ key role refining objectives, framing scenarios and developing storylines. • A balanced statements selection reflects the composition of stakeholder categories. • Stakeholders provide relevant and unique contribution for the final outcome. • Geographic isolation of the islands shapes the results of scenarios and storylines. • Participatory scenarios-building results in formulation of policy recommendations. Abstract: The Maritime Spatial Planning process plans towards a desired future (Vision/Goal). Such vision is usually an integration of various aspirations from different stakeholders and sectors that depend on the related policy/governance framework. In this sense, a tool such as scenario-building is of paramount importance to MSP once it helps decision-makers visualize the future that might unfold due to specific the actions/policies needed to make such a future more likely to happen. Along these lines, this work presents the methodology and results of the scenario building process developed and applied in the Macaronesia Maritime Spatial Planning (MarSP) project, for the Autonomous Region of Azores. The methodology is structured in four main steps: (i) setting MSP objectives based on policy review and following stakeholders’ inputs; (ii) identifying key objectives after consultation with regional experts; (iii) developing scenario storylines; and (iv) balancing across scenarios based on feedback from stakeholders’ engagement. Three main pre-established scenarios were developed, balancing the pillars of sustainable development, namely: “Blue Society,” “Blue Growth”, and “Blue Development”. In a consultative and participatory process, the three scenarios were later modified and validated, integrating the preferences of stakeholders, being the most voted (preferred) scenario “Blue Development”. Results highlight the importance of applying a participatory approach to scenario building in MSP to understand the preferences and expectations of different stakeholders. The methodology can be relevant and adjustable to other regions, tailored to specific settings, in support of decision making towards an adaptive MSP process.

Description: Climate change is causing fish stocks to shift, upending the social-ecological systems that rely on the historic distributions of these stocks and creating or exacerbating fisheries conflicts. The movements of internationally shared stocks between Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) or between EEZs and the high seas are especially concerning because they bring into play a variety of geopolitical factors and equity issues surrounding missing or conflicting regulations of jurisdictional boundary zones. Though many studies have explored the responses to and repercussions of shifting stocks on fisheries management, there is a dearth of interdisciplinary case studies that provide insight into the complexity of conflict formation in shifting transboundary fisheries, and that highlight the initial response stages where inclusion of proactive and cooperative measures can greatly improve a system's resilience to conflict. Our study helps to fill this gap by drawing on the knowledge of a diverse group of experts to analyze four case studies where transboundary stock shifts, geopolitical or governance tensions, and uncertainty regarding the future of the marine environment collide. Through synthesis of case study findings, we create a causal model of fishery conflict, within which we highlight factors that may heighten or mitigate the risk of conflict over shifting resources such as complex histories of power imbalance, unequal access to resources, or a lack of consistent and transparent data collection. Cooperation and equitable decision-making processes are recognized as vital components of internationally shared stock management which can promote lasting, effective, and conflict-resilient fisheries.

Description: Although considerable progress has been made in the management and planning of the marine environment, important gaps still exist in streamlining policies across governance levels, maritime sectors, and between different countries. This can hinder effective Maritime Spatial Planning (MSP) and prevent harmonious cross-sectoral cooperation, and importantly, cross-border or trans-boundary collaboration. These may in turn have serious implications for overall ocean governance and ultimately, marine sustainability. The North Atlantic presents an ideal case-study region for reviewing these issues: North Atlantic countries have different governance structures, and as such, different approaches to marine policy. Therefore, for an effective marine management, cross-sectoral and cross-border MSP in the region, there is a need to review marine and maritime policies in order to identify differences and commonalities among countries. This chapter reviews major policies for the marine environment in the North Atlantic and assesses where differences between countries exist and at which governance level they are being created. Key research questions include: (i) Are there significant differences in marine policy between North Atlantic countries? Moreover, are there any substantial geographical/political differences? (ii) Are there differences in implementation of key policies? Such an analysis requires a sound framework for comparison among countries. To that end, the use of “horrendograms”, a tool increasingly being used by the marine research and planning community to assess such issues, is adopted. Results indicate that key differences between countries are created primarily at a national level of marine governance. Although differences between countries exist, overall strategic targets are similar. For instance, whilst the political systems of certain North Atlantic countries may differ substantially, key objectives for major sectors, such as fisheries and conservation, are similar – even when such objectives are implemented at different levels. Findings from the study can enable targeted policy intervention and, as such, assist the development of future outlooks of ocean governance in the region. Results can also aid the development of future visions and scenarios for MSP in the Atlantic region.

Description: The concept of multi-use of the sea has gained popularity in recent years as a result of ocean space (coastal areas and regions with relatively small sea space in particular) becoming increasingly crowded due to the development of the maritime economy. Competing claims for space can be a source of conflict, however this may also lead to mutual benefits for different users when sustainable combinations are sought. Despite increasing European-wide efforts, on-the-ground knowledge and practice of multi-use are still limited. Therefore, with the aim of investigating opportunities for multi-use development in the European seas, 10 case studies were selected, involving different site-specific contexts. This study analyses the characteristics and development potential for ocean multi-use, integrating results from desk analysis and stakeholder perceptions from different sectors in each of the case study locations. Similarities and differences between various combinations of sea uses are also identified. The results show a high heterogeneity of multi-use opportunities between case studies, with a range of combinations identified. The investigated combinations of maritime uses share an overall balance between factors promoting (drivers) and hindering (barriers) multi-use development. Based on stakeholder opinions, expected benefits (added values) of multi-use implementation outweigh potential negative impacts. Management actions are also proposed to further exploit multi-use potential at a local, regional (sub-national) and national levels.

Description: This paper examines the concept of maritime multi-use as a territorial/SPATIAL governance instrument for the enhancement of sustainable development in five EU sea basins. Multi-use (MU) is expected to enhance the productivity of blue economy sectors, as well as deliver additional socio-economic benefits related to the environmental and social dimensions of sustainable development. The paper provides a definition of maritime multi-use and identifies the multi-uses with the highest potential in EU sea basins. In each sea basin, multi-use plays a different role as concerns sustainable development. For the Eastern Baltic Sea, the Mediterranean Sea and the Black Sea, the MU focus should remain on the environmental pillar of sustainable development. In the North Sea, North Atlantic and Western Baltic Sea, addressing social sustainability seems a key precondition for success of MU in enhancement of sustainable spatial development at sea. Moreover, it has been suggested to introduce MU key global strategies such as SDGs or Macroregional strategies and action plans and to supplement maritime spatial planning with sectoral incentives and educational efforts as key vehicles supporting MU. The paper concludes by identifying aspects which, in order to inform maritime spatial planning and maritime governance regarding a more conscious application of the aforementioned concept, require further investigation. Key tasks are related to: more profound evaluation of performance of policies supporting MUs, researching the impact of MU on societal goals and on the MU costs and benefits, including external ones, and finally identifying the impact of MU on the development of various sectors and regions on land.

Description: The increasing demand for ocean resources exerts an increasing pressure on the use of ocean space across all European Sea Basins. This underlines issues of compatibility (or conflicts) between different maritime uses as well as between economic activities and environmental protection. The idea of multi-use (MU), as a guiding concept for efficient allocation of compatible activities in the same marine space, can increase spatial efficiency and at the same time provide socio-economic and environmental benefits. However, its transition from a concept to real-world development is facing several barriers. Based on analysis of five European sea basins done under the Horizon 2020 MUSES project (Multi-Use in European Seas), this paper aims to clarify the concept of MU by discussing: 1) the definition in the literature and practice so far, and; 2) how existing regulatory and planning regimes are supporting and challenging the development of several MUs (considered as the most promising). The analytical methodology developed for the MUSES project relied on data collected via desk research and semi structured interviews with key stakeholders (e.g. industry, regulators), over the period of seven months. The semi-quantitative analysis of data conducted, identified the commonalities and differences among countries in respect to each of the analyzed MUs. The paper points out priorities for the MU development in different sea basins and recommends initial steps to overcome existing barriers, whilst maximizing local benefits. This paper is a starting point towards a broader scientific debate on: (i) what could be the role of management policies (like for instance maritime spatial planning - MSP) in supporting and fostering MU concept development, (ii) what are technical and technological challenges for technically advanced MUs, (iii) how added values of MUs concept (e.g. benefits for local economies, positive impacts on environment) could be enhanced.

Description: Multi-use (MU) has been promoted as a viable approach to the effective planning and mitigation of user-conflicts in the marine realm. Despite several research and pilot projects demonstrating the approach’s feasibility and benefits, commercially viable MU applications remain patchy and few. Further, MU is neither systematically applied nor purposively planned for even in the imminent event of incompatible and conflicting use of marine space. This paper seeks to identify barriers and opportunities for mainstreaming MU based on desktop study and iterative stakeholder consultation. The findings reveal that the MU concept was frequently framed as ‘co-location’ or ‘co-existence’ and aimed toward mitigating conflict among users. Practice was ahead of theory with little attention to synergistic and efficiency aspects. Barriers for MU application include shortcomings in legislation, sectoral thinking, and burdensome administrative procedures. The main opportunity lies in creating a conducive policy environment where MU risks and transaction costs become low and competitive, respectively. Solutions at the sea basin and national level, upon which further MU application can be anchored, are proposed.