Note: Intro -- Title Page -- Copyright Page -- Table of Contents -- Preface -- Acknowledgments -- Figures -- Tables -- Abreviations and acronyms -- Contributors -- Authors -- Introduction -- 1 Sourees of anthropogenie pollution in the Nordie Seas and Arctic -- 1.1 RADIOACTIVE CONTAMINATION: CLASSIFICATION AND DESCRIPTION OF SOURCES -- 1.1.1 Classification of sources -- 1.1.1.1 Primary and secondary sources -- 1.1.1.2 Global and point sources -- 1.1.2 Nuclear power plants (NPPs) -- 1.1.3 Nuclear industry enterprises -- 1.1.3.1 European reprocessing plants -- 1.1.3.2 Russian nucear industry enterprises -- 1.1.4 Scientific and research reactors and laboratories -- 1.1.5 Special combines -- 1.1.6 Nuclear weapons tests and "peaceful" nuclear explosions -- 1.1.6.1 Nuclear military test explosions -- 1.1.6.2 Underground civilian ("peaceful'') nuclear explosions -- 1.1.7 Military bases, nuclear icebreakers, and submarines -- 1.1.8 Miscellaneous accidents -- 1.2 RADIOACTIVE POLLUTION: MAJOR RUSSIAN NUCLEAR INDUSTRIES -- 1.2.1 The Mayak Production Association, Chelyabinsk -- 1.2.2 The Siberian Chemical Combine, Tomsk-7 -- 1.2.3 The Mining Chemical Combine. Krasnoyarsk-26 -- 1.3 NON-RADIOACTIVE POLLUTION -- 1.3.1 Main sources of marine pollution in the Russian Arctic -- 1.3.1.1 Barents Sea -- 1.3.1.2 White Sea -- 1.3.1.3 Kara Sea -- 1.3.1.4 Laptev Sea -- 1.3.2 Distribution of pollution in the Russian Arctic Seas and coastal areas -- 1.3.2.1 Barents Sea -- 1.3.2.2 White Sea -- 1.3.2.3 Kara Sea -- 1.3.2.4 Laptev Sea -- 2 Study region and environmental datasets -- 2.1 GEOGRAPHICAL DESCRIPTION OF THE STUDY REGION -- 2.1.1 The Ob' and Yenisei River systems -- 2.1.1.1 The Ob' River -- 2.1.1.2 Yenisei River -- 2.1.2 Kara Sea region -- 2.1.2.1 General description -- 2.1.2.2 Oceanographic regime -- 2.1.3 The Nordic Seas and adjacent seas. , 2.2 DESCRIPTION OF ENVIRONMENTAL AND POLLUTION DATA -- 2.2.1 Databases and information system -- 2.2.2 Environmental data -- 2.2.3 Radioactive and non-radioactive pollution data -- 3 Generie model system (GMS) for simulation of radioaetive spread in the aquatie environment -- 3.1 RATIONALE, CONCEPT, AND STRUCTURE OF THE GMS -- 3.1.1 GMS structure and data streams -- 3.1.2 Modeling management -- 3.2 ATLANTIC AND ARCTIC OCEAN MODEL -- 3.2.1 General model description -- Primitive equations -- Momentum equation -- Continuity equation -- Hydrostatic equation -- Heat and salt conservation equations -- 3.2.2 Radionuclide tracer module -- 3.2.3 Model validation results -- 3.2.4 Extension and validation of the Arctic/North Atlantic model . -- Description of the new version of MICOM -- Validating the new model using simulated and observed 129 I from Sellafield and La Hague -- Summary -- 3.3 KARA SEA SHELF SEA MODEL -- 3.3.1 General model description -- Ocean circulation model -- Ice cover model -- Atmospheric impact -- Initial and boundary comditions -- 3.3.2 Model validation results -- 3.4 THE OB' AND YENISEI RIVER AND ESTUARY MODELS -- 3.4.1 One-dimensional model to simulate the transport of radionuclides in a river system-RIVTOX -- Sub-model of river hydraulics -- Sediment transport sub-model -- Sub-model of radionuclide transport -- Boundary and initial conditions in river network -- Boudary and initial conditions -- Numerical solution -- 3.4.2 Numerical model for three-dimensional dispersion simu­lation of radionuclides in stratified water bodies- THREETOX -- Hydrodynamics -- Ice thermohydrodynamics -- Sediment transport -- Radionuclide transport -- Numerical setup -- 3.4.3 River model validation results -- 4 Studies of potential radioaetive spread in the Nordie Seas and Aretie using the generie model system (GMS). , 4.1 SIMULATION OF PAST CONTAMINATION OF THE NORDIC SEAS AND ARCTIC FROM ANTHROPOGENIC RELEASES -- 4.1.1 River and estuary transport and dilution of radioactive pollutants from rivers to the Kara Sea -- Reconstruction of past contamination of the Ob' River by the Mayak PA nuclear plant -- Reconstruction of past contamination of the Yenisei River by the MCC nuclear plant -- 4.1.2 Transport and dilution of radioactive waste and dissolved pollutants in the Kara Sea -- Transport of Strontium-90 from the Ob' River from 1949 to 1965 (Historical Run 1) -- Transport of strontium-90 and cesium-137 from Yenisei River from 1958 to 1993 (Historical Run 2) -- 4.1.3 Transport and dilution of radioactive waste and dissolved pollutants from all sources -- Modeling the transport and dilution of radioactive waste and dessolved pollutants -- Setup of the radionuclide simulation (hindcast) -- Results -- 4.2 SCENARIOS FOR POTENTIAL FUTURE RELEASES OF RADIOACTIVITY -- 4.2.1 The Mayak PA scenario -- 4.2.2 "Krasnoyarsk" scenario -- 4.2.3 "Tomsk" scenario -- 4.2.4 "C02-doubling" scenario -- 4.2.5 "Submarine" seenarios -- 4.3 ASSESSMENTS OF POTENTIAL ACCIDENTAL RELEASES FOR THE 21ST CENTURY -- 4.3.1 Potential radioactive contamination from rivers to the Kara Sea -- River runoff in the 20th and 21st centuries -- Simulation of flux of radionuclides to the Kara Sea from a hypothetical accidental release from nuclear plants -- 4.3.2 Potential radioactive contamination in the Kara Sea -- Transport of 90 Sr from the Ob' to the Kara in 2084-2086 (Scenario I) -- Transport of 137 Cs from the Ob' in 2084-2089 (Scenario II) -- Transport of 90 Sr from Ob' to the Kara Sea during 2084-2086 -- 137 Cs transport from the Yenisei during 2089-2094 (Scenario IV) -- 90 SR transport from the Yenisei for the 2084-2086 (Scenario V). , 4.4 TRANSOPORT OF RADIOACTIVITY IN THE ARCTIC AND POSSIBLE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE -- 4.4.1 Accident scenario of 90Sr from the Ob' and Yenisei Rivers -- 4.4.2 Spread of accidentally released 90Sr under present and 2 * CO2 warming seenarios -- 4.5 POTENTIAL TRANSPORT OF RADIOACTIVITY FROM SUBMARINE ACCIDENTS -- 4.5.1 Local model simulations -- 4.5.2 Large-scale model simulations -- 5 Studies of the spread of non-radioactive pollutants in the Arctic using the generic model system (GMS) -- 5.1 APPROACH TO SIMULATION OF POLLUTANTS IN THE AQUATIC ENVIRONMENT -- 5.1.1 Persistent organic pollutants -- 5.1.2 Basic processes and equations for modeling -- 5.1.3 Modeling POP transport in the environment -- Equilibrium sorption -- Volatilization -- Biodegradation -- Exchange of PCBs between and bottom sediments -- 5.2 MODELLING PCB SPREAD IN ARCTIC RIVERS AND COASTAL WATERS USING THE GMS -- 5.2.1 Modification of the models for simulation of PCBs -- Sorption -- Volatilization -- Biodegradation (dechlorination) -- Direct exchange of PCBs between water and bottom sediments -- 5.2.2 GMS application to simulate the transport and fate of PCBs released in the Yenisei River and estuary -- 5.3 MODELING PETROLEUM HYDROCARBON SPREAD USING THE GMS -- 5.3.1 Processes of oil spread in the marine environment -- 5.3.2 Modeling oil spread in the marine environment -- 6 Assessment and input to risk management -- 6.1 INTRODUCTION -- 6.1.1 Purpose, endpoints, and philosophy -- 6.1.2 Source term characteristics -- 6.1.3 Environmental characteristics -- 6.1.4 Time frames and societal assumptions -- 6.2 SCENARIOS -- 6.2.1 Source term seenarios -- 6.2.2 Climate seenarios -- 6.3 FORMULATION AND IMPLEMENTATION OF DOSE MODELS -- 6.4 RESULTS -- 6.5 CONCLUSIONS. , APPENDICES A Time series of annual average concentrations of radionuclides in water and sediments by accident scenario and Iocation used for dose caIcuIations -- APPENDICES B Doses to individuals in critical groups from all accident seenarios given by radionuclide and exposure pathway -- Afterword -- References -- Index.