Beschreibung: The Mediterranean community represented in this paper is the result of more than 30 years of EU and nationally funded coordination, which has led to key contributions in science concepts and operational initiatives. Together with the establishment of operational services, the community has coordinated with universities, research centers, research infrastructures and private companies to implement advanced multi-platform and integrated observing and forecasting systems that facilitate the advancement of operational services, scientific achievements and mission-oriented innovation. Thus, the community can respond to societal challenges and stakeholders needs, developing a variety of fit-for-purpose services such as the Copernicus Marine Service. The combination of state-of-the-art observations and forecasting provides new opportunities for downstream services in response to the needs of the heavily populated Mediterranean coastal areas and to climate change. The challenge over the next decade is to sustain ocean observations within the research community, to monitor the variability at small scales, e.g., the mesoscale/submesoscale, to resolve the sub-basin/seasonal and inter-annual variability in the circulation, and thus establish the decadal variability, understand and correct the model-associated biases and to enhance model-data integration and ensemble forecasting for uncertainty estimation. Better knowledge and understanding of the level of Mediterranean variability will enable a subsequent evaluation of the impacts and mitigation of the effect of human activities and climate change on the biodiversity and the ecosystem, which will support environmental assessments and decisions. Further challenges include extending the science-based added-value products into societal relevant downstream services and engaging with communities to build initiatives that will contribute to the 2030 Agenda and more specifically to SDG14 and the UN's Decade of Ocean Science for sustainable development, by this contributing to bridge the science-policy gap. The Mediterranean observing and forecasting capacity was built on the basis of community best practices in monitoring and modeling, and can serve as a basis for the development of an integrated global ocean observing system.

Beschreibung: While originally developed for weather forecasting, the Extreme Forecast index (EFI) concept has found utility in diverse fields. This study marks the inaugural application of EFI principles to numerical ocean forecasting. EFI offers a metric to gauge the forecast's deviation from historical norms specific to the location and time of year. A heightened EFI value signifies that the forecast falls beyond the usual range of variability, signifying a higher probability of extreme conditions. This novel use of EFI stands to benefit oceanographers by identifying significant oceanic events, aiding decision-making, and supporting early warning systems, particularly for extreme marine conditions. It enhances comprehension of forecast uncertainties and facilitates clearer communication of potential risks to the public and stakeholders. Such insights are invaluable for preparedness, coastal management, and mitigating the impact of marine extremes on communities and ecosystems. EFI indices for the Mediterranean Sea are computed using a first implementation of a forecast ensemble system that is being developed for the Mediterranean Sea Monitoring and Forecasting Center of the Copernicus Marine Environment Service. This deliverable report presents the first-ever application of the EFI approach to the Mediterranean Sea. After presenting the EFI definition adopted in this study, we discuss its application to sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface height (SSH) extremes. A case studies using ensemble forecasts for the year 2021 are presented and discussed.

Beschreibung: The Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS) Ocean State Report (OSR) provides an annual report of the state of the global ocean and European regional seas for policy and decision-makers with the additional aim of increasing general public awareness about the status of, and changes in, the marine environment. The CMEMS OSR draws on expert analysis and provides a 3-D view (through reanalysis systems), a view from above (through remote-sensing data) and a direct view of the interior (through in situ measurements) of the global ocean and the European regional seas. The report is based on the unique CMEMS monitoring capabilities of the blue (hydrography, currents), white (sea ice) and green (e.g. Chlorophyll) marine environment. This first issue of the CMEMS OSR provides guidance on Essential Variables, large-scale changes and specific events related to the physical ocean state over the period 1993–2015. Principal findings of this first CMEMS OSR show a significant increase in global and regional sea levels, thermosteric expansion, ocean heat content, sea surface temperature and Antarctic sea ice extent and conversely a decrease in Arctic sea ice extent during the 1993–2015 period. During the year 2015 exceptionally strong large-scale changes were monitored such as, for example, a strong El Niño Southern Oscillation, a high frequency of extreme storms and sea level events in specific regions in addition to areas of high sea level and harmful algae blooms. At the same time, some areas in the Arctic Ocean experienced exceptionally low sea ice extent and temperatures below average were observed in the North Atlantic Ocean.

Beschreibung: Published

Beschreibung: s235–s320

Beschreibung: 4A. Oceanografia e clima

Beschreibung: JCR Journal

Beschreibung: The Mediterranean and Black Sea operational forecasting systems are developed and continuously improved in the context of the Copernicus Marine Environment and Monitoring Service (CMEMS). The two systems operationally produce analyses and 10-days forecasts of the main physical parameters (Temperature, Salinity, Sea Level, Currents, Mixed Layer Depth) with a resolution of about 4.5km in the horizontal over 141 vertical levels in the Mediterranean Sea, and about 3km in the horizontal over 31 vertical levels in the Black Sea. The hydrodynamic numerical solutions are based on the NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) model coupled to a 3D variational data assimilation method (3DVAR) able to assimilate in-situ temperature and salinity profiles, satellite along-track sea level anomaly and sea surface temperature (in the Mediterranean Sea a nudging to satellite SST-L4 dataset is provided). The Mediterranean system is also 2-way online coupled with the WW3 (WaveWatch3) wave model to better represent the surface drag coefficient. The two systems are forced by 1/8o degree ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts) atmospheric fields. The systems are validated in near real time and the quality of the products is monitored through regional websites (http://medfs.cmcc.it/ and http://bsfs.cmcc.it/) showing the analysis and forecast field maps at different depths (in case of 3D variables) as well as a weekly validation of model analysis compared with available observations. The focus of this work is to present the latest modelling system upgrades and the related improvements achieved by showing the model skill assessment including comparison with in-situ and satellite observational datasets.

Beschreibung: Unpublished

Beschreibung: San Diego, CA, USA

Beschreibung: 4A. Oceanografia e clima

Beschreibung: HPC world is increasing incredibly fast.We can build more resolute and accurate models. Unfortunately,Big Data management pops up when trying to evaluate them.We set up a Python module that does automated assessment of a set of observations,extraction and aggregation in time of ocean model time,running evaluation methods. For the first time execution,we used ocean physics variables and CMEMS reprocessed moorings historical data,two model data from the RITMARE and from CMEMS. The results are promising,because we can process an historical or real time evaluation and it is portable,the evaluation results provides more reliable skill scores.

Beschreibung: Published

Beschreibung: Barcelona, Spain

Beschreibung: 4A. Oceanografia e clima

Beschreibung: The formation of intermediate and deep water masses is one of the most important processes occurring in the Mediterranean Sea, being a component of its general overturning circulation, and it has crucial implications on the ecosystem. The objective of the proposed work is to revise the main water mass formation events occurred during the latest 30 years (1987-2016) in the Mediterranean Sea and analyse their impact on biogeochemical properties considering the CMEMS Med-MFC physical and biogeochemical reanalysis data sets (https://doi.org/10.25423/medsea_reanalysis_phys_006_004 and https://doi.org/10.25423/MEDSEA_REANALYSIS_BIO_006_008 respectively). The analysis takes into consideration the four regions where events of intermediate and deep water formation are known to occur: 1) the Gulf of Lions for the Western Mediterranean Deep Waters; 2) the Southern Adriatic Pit for the Eastern Mediterranean Deep Waters; 3) the Cretan Sea for Cretan Intermediate Waters and Cretan Deep Waters; 4) the Rhodes Gyre, the area of formation of the so- called Levantine Intermediate Waters and Levantine Deep Waters. Annual water mass formation rates have been computed using daily mixed layer depth estimates considering the annual maximum volume of water above mixed layer depth with potential density within or higher than specific thresholds, and then divided by seconds per year. The use of different density thresholds reported in literature to identify water masses allows to detect variations of their characteristics over time, as observed from observations. The adopted methodology might underestimate the actual water mass formation rate but, thanks to the assimilation of in situ temperature and salinity profiles and the interactive heat flux correction based on observed satellite sea surface temperature, it permits an accurate estimation of the mixed layer depth and to detect the main open ocean convection events from the selected reanalysis data set. The analysis of chlorophyll and nutrient dynamics during the most significant episodes of water mass formation in North West Mediterranean and South Adriatic Sea highlights that these intense physical processes have an impact on the biogeochemical properties. We verified that dense water formation changes the structure of nutrients fields and might cause precondition for chlorophyll blooms, highlighting a strong link between vertical transport mechanisms and primary productivity. The CMEMS Mediterranean Sea physical reanalysis is able to reproduce both Eastern Mediterranean Transient and Western Mediterranean Transition phenomena and catches the principal water mass formation events reported in literature. This result is promising because it allows a constant monitoring of the open ocean deep convection process in the Mediterranean Sea, a better understanding of the multiple drivers of the general overturning circulation at interannual and multidecadal time scales and the possible effects on the Mediterranean ecosystems.

Beschreibung: Published

Beschreibung: Vienna

Beschreibung: 4A. Oceanografia e clima

Beschreibung: The Mediterranean Monitoring and Forecasting Center (MED-MFC) is part of the Copernicus Marine Environment and Monitoring Service (CMEMS) and provides regular and systematic information on the time-evolving Mediterranean Sea physical (including waves) and biogeochemical state. The systems consist of 3 components: 1) Med-Physics, a numerical ocean prediction systems, based on NEMO model, that operationally produces analyses, reanalysis and short term forecasts of the main physical parameters; 2) Med-Biogeochemistry, a biogeochemical analysis, reanalysis and forecasting system based on the Biogeochemical Flux Model (BFM) which provides information on chlorophyll, phosphate, nitrate, primary productivity, oxygen, phytoplankton biomass, pH and pCO2; 3) Med-Waves based on WAM model and providing analysis, forecast and reanalysis products for waves. The systems have been recently upgraded at a resolution of 1/24 degree in the horizontal and 141 vertical levels. The Med-Physics analysis and forecasting system is composed by the hydrodynamic model NEMO 2-way coupled with the third-generation wave model WaveWatchIII and forced by ECMWF atmospheric fields. The model solutions are corrected by the 3DVAR data assimilation system (3D variational scheme adapted to the oceanic assimilation problem) with a daily assimilation cycle of sea level anomaly and vertical profiles of temperature and salinity. The model has a non-linear explicit free surface and it is forced by surface pressure, interactive heat, momentum and water fluxes at the air-sea interface. The biogeochemical analysis and forecasts are produced by means of the MedBFM v2.1 modeling system (i.e. the physical-biogeochemical OGSTM-BFM model coupled with the 3DVARBIO assimilation scheme) forced by the outputs of the Med-Physics product. Seven days of analysis/hindcast and ten days of forecast are bi-weekly produced on Wednesday and on Saturday, with the assimilation of surface chlorophyll concentration from satellite observations. In-situ data are mainly used to estimate model uncertainty at different spatial scales. The Med-Waves modelling system is based on the WAM Cycle 4.5.4 wave model code. It consists of a wave model grid covering the Mediterranean Sea at a 1/24° horizontal resolution, nested to a North Atlantic grid at a 1/6° resolution. The system is forced by ECMWF winds at 1/8°. Refraction due to surface currents is accounted by the system which assimilates altimeter along-track significant wave height observations. On a daily basis, it provides 1-day analysis and 5-day forecast hourly wave parameters. Currently, wave buoy observations of significant wave height and mean wave period along with satellite observations are used to calibrate and validate the Med-waves modelling system.

Beschreibung: Published

Beschreibung: Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada

Beschreibung: 4A. Oceanografia e clima

Beschreibung: This work describes a set of numerical experiments carried out using a coupled wave-ocean modeling system implemented in the Mediterranean Sea in order to meet the needs of an improvement of the operational sea state and current analysis and forecasts in the framework of the MyOcean FollowOn project. MyOcean is a series of projects granted by the European Commission within the GMES Program (Seventh Framework Program), whose objective is a pan-European capacity for ocean monitoring and forecasting.

Beschreibung: ingv

Beschreibung: Published

Beschreibung: 1-54

Beschreibung: 3SR. AMBIENTE - Servizi e ricerca per la Società

Beschreibung: N/A or not JCR

Beschreibung: INGV

Beschreibung: Published

Beschreibung: 4A. Oceanografia e clima