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  • 1
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    Regional climate downscaling over Europe: perspectives from the EURO-CORDEX community (2020)
    Springer Berlin Heidelberg
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-06-21
    Description: The European CORDEX (EURO-CORDEX) initiative is a large voluntary effort that seeks to advance regional climate and Earth system science in Europe. As part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) - Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), it shares the broader goals of providing a model evaluation and climate projection framework and improving communication with both the General Circulation Model (GCM) and climate data user communities. EURO-CORDEX oversees the design and coordination of ongoing ensembles of regional climate projections of unprecedented size and resolution (0.11° EUR-11 and 0.44° EUR-44 domains). Additionally, the inclusion of empirical-statistical downscaling allows investigation of much larger multi-model ensembles. These complementary approaches provide a foundation for scientific studies within the climate research community and others. The value of the EURO-CORDEX ensemble is shown via numerous peer-reviewed studies and its use in the development of climate services. Evaluations of the EUR-44 and EUR-11 ensembles also show the benefits of higher resolution. However, significant challenges remain. To further advance scientific understanding, two flagship pilot studies (FPS) were initiated. The first investigates local-regional phenomena at convection-permitting scales over central Europe and the Mediterranean in collaboration with the Med-CORDEX community. The second investigates the impacts of land cover changes on European climate across spatial and temporal scales. Over the coming years, the EURO-CORDEX community looks forward to closer collaboration with other communities, new advances, supporting international initiatives such as the IPCC reports, and continuing to provide the basis for research on regional climate impacts and adaptation in Europe.
    Keywords: ddc:551.6 ; EURO-CORDEX ; CORDEX ; Climate change ; Regional climate models ; Regional climate modelling
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:article
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    CITATION GEO-LEO
  • 2
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    How will a warming climate affect the Benguela coastal low‐level wind jet? (2019)
    In:  EPIC3Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, ISSN: 2169-897X
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019-05-13
    Description: The strong coastal upwelling associated to the Benguela eastern boundary upwelling system makes the ocean along coast of this current one of the most productive ecosystems in the world. The Benguela Coastal Low‐Level Jet (BCLLJ) is one of the most important mesoscale feature that shape the climate of this region. The main synoptic forcing of the BCLLJ is the Angola thermal low over land and the St. Helen anticyclone over the ocean, resulting in southwesterly winds along the coast. This study investigates how the BCLLJ might change due to climate warming, with the help of uncoupled and coupled simulations from a 25‐km horizontal resolution regional climate model (ROM). In general, the coupled simulation displays the best performance in representing the present time near‐surface wind speed, with a decrease on the known warm bias of sea surface temperature in the Benguela eastern boundary upwelling system region. The analysis of the projected changes of the BCLLJ climate toward the end of the 21st century (2070–2099), following the RCP8.5 emissions scenario, shows an increase in the frequency of the BCLLJ occurrence along the southern area with higher changes in the coupled simulation (between 6% and 8%). These changes are related to a southerly shift of the St. Helen High, which intensifies the flow offshore the west coast of South Africa and causes a sharpening of the land‐sea thermal contrasts. However, during spring, associated with the decrease in near‐surface wind speed due to higher sea surface temperatures, the future frequency and intensity of the BCLLJ are lower.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
    Format: application/pdf
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    PAPER (OA)
  • 3
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    The present and future offshore wind resource in the Southwestern African region (2021)
    SPRINGER
    In:  EPIC3Climate Dynamics, SPRINGER, 56(5-6), pp. 1371-1388, ISSN: 0930-7575
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-05-25
    Description: In the last decades, offshore wind harvesting has increased enormously, and is seen as a renewable energy resource with great potential in many regions of the world. Therefore, it is crucial to understand how this resource will evolve in a warming climate. In the present study, offshore wind resource in the Southwestern African region is analysed for the present and future climates. A ROM (REMO-OASIS-MPIOM) climate simulation in uncoupled and coupled atmosphere–ocean mode, at 25 km horizontal resolution, and a multi-model ensemble built with a set of regional climate models from the CORDEX-Africa experiment at 0.44° resolution were used. The projected changes of the offshore wind energy density throughout the twenty-first century are examined following the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Characterised by strong coastal-parallel winds, the Southwestern African offshore region shows high values of wind energy density at 100 m, up to 1500 Wm⁻² near the coast, particularly offshore Namibia and west South Africa. Conversely, along Angola’s coast the available offshore wind energy density is lower. Throughout the twenty-first century, for the weaker climate mitigation scenario (RCP8.5), an increase of the offshore wind resource is projected to occur along Namibia and South African western coasts, more pronounced at the end of the century (+ 24%), while a decrease is projected along Angola’s coasts, reaching a negative anomaly of about − 32%. Smaller changes but with the same pattern are projected for the stronger climate mitigation scenario (RCP4.5). The future deployment of offshore floating hub turbines placed at higher heights may allow higher production of energy in this region. Along offshore Namibia and west South Africa, the wind energy density at 250 m showed differences that range between 30 and 50% relative to wind energy density at 100 m.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
    Format: application/pdf
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    PAPER (OA)
  • 4
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    The North African coastal low level wind jet: a high resolution view (2018)
    SPRINGER
    In:  EPIC3Climate Dynamics, SPRINGER, ISSN: 0930-7575
    Details
    Publication Date: 2018-09-20
    Description: The North African coastal low-level jet (NACLLJ) lies over the cold Canary current and is synoptically linked to the Azores Anticyclone and to the continental thermal low over the Sahara Desert. Although being one of the most persistent and horizontally extended coastal wind jets, this is the first high resolution modelling effort to investigate the NACLLJ climate. The current study uses a ROM atmospheric hindcast simulation with ~ 25 km resolution, for the period 1980–2014. Additionally, the underlying surface wind features are also scrutinized using the CORDEX-Africa runs. These runs allow the building of a multi-model ensemble for the coastal surface flow. The ROM and the CORDEX-Africa simulations are extensively evaluated showing a good ability to represent the surface winds. The NACLLJ shows a strong seasonal cycle, but, unlike most coastal wind jets, e.g. the California one, it is significantly present all year round, with frequencies of occurrence above 20%. In spring and autumn, the maxima frequencies are around 50%, and reach values above 60% in summer. The location of maximum frequency of occurrence migrates meridionally from season to season, being in winter and spring upwind of Cap-Vert, and in summer and autumn offshore the Western Sahara. Analogously, the lowest jet wind speeds occur in winter, when the median is below 15 m/s. In summer, the jet wind speed median values are ~ 20 m/s and the maxima are above 30 m/s. The jet occurs at heights ~ 360 m. A momentum balance is pursued disclosing that the regional flow is almost geostrophic, dominated by the pressure gradient and Coriolis force. Over the jet areas the ageostrophy is responsible for the jet acceleration.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 5
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    Assessing the climate change impact on the North African offshore surface wind and coastal low-level jet using coupled and uncoupled regional climate simulations (2018)
    In:  EPIC3Climate Dynamics, ISSN: 0930-7575
    Details
    Publication Date: 2018-12-10
    Description: The North African Coastal Low-Level Jet (NACLLJ) is a semi-permanent feature offshore the north western African coast, linked to the cold nearshore upwelling of the Canary Eastern Boundary Current system. Its main synoptic drivers are the Azores Anticyclone over the ocean and the inland Sahara thermal low. The coastal jet events occur in one of the world’s most productive fisheries region, thus the evaluation of the effects of global warming in its properties is imperative. This study proposes an analysis of the annual and intra-annual attributes of the NACLLJ for two time periods 1976–2005 (historical) and 2070–2199 (future), resorting to coupled and uncoupled atmosphere–ocean simulations with the ROM model, as well as near surface offshore wind speed from the CORDEX-Africa ensemble. The future simulations follow the RCP8.5 greenhouse gas emissions scenario. Overall, the ROM coupled simulation presents the best performance in reproducing the present-climate near surface wind speed, offshore northwest Africa, compared to the remaining RCM simulations. The higher SST resolution in the coupled simulations favours much localised colder upwelling strips near the coast and consequently stronger jets. In future climate, a small increase in the surface wind speed is projected, mainly linked to the regions of coastal jet presence. The NACLLJ is projected to be more frequent and intense, encompassing larger areas. An increase of the jet seasonal frequencies of occurrence is projected for all seasons, which is larger from spring to autumn (up to 15, 16 and 22% more frequent, respectively). However, in some offshore areas the winter NACLLJ persistency is likely to double, relatively to present-climate. Higher inter-annual variability is also projected for the future NACLLJ seasonal frequencies. The strengthening of the coastal jet speeds is also significant, between 5 and 12% in all seasons. Additionally, the jet’s diurnal cycle shows an increase in jet occurrence across the day, particularly in the mid and late afternoon.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 6
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    A Climatological Analysis of the Benguela Coastal Low‐Level Jet (2018)
    In:  EPIC3Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, ISSN: 2169-897X
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019-01-22
    Description: The Benguela coastal low‐level jet (CLLJ) is characterized by intense winds that occur around 400 m above sea level, within or at the top of the marine atmospheric boundary layer. The semi‐permanent St. Helen high‐pressure system, over the South Atlantic Ocean, and the inland thermal low‐pressure system, over the Namib Desert, are the synoptic forcing behind the Benguela CLLJ. This coastal jet is an important mesoscale feature in the Namibia and Angola coastal areas, since it is present virtually all year round, with a marked seasonal cycle. This study investigates the climatology of the frequency and the intensity of the Benguela CLLJ and its relationship with synoptic and local forcing's, using high‐resolution modelling. An uncoupled ROM (REMO‐OASIS‐MPIOM) hindcast simulation, with 25 km horizontal resolution, for the period 1980‐2014, is used to analyse the features of the Benguela CLLJ. It is shown that Benguela CLLJ is characterized by two local maxima of frequency of occurrence at around 26oS and 17.5oS. During austral summer, the jet has a frequency of occurrence of about 60% and it is in its southern core. During autumn and winter, the frequency of occurrence decreases to nearly half, and migrates equatorward. During spring, the jet has a frequency of occurrence of 45%, and is found at the northern core. The jet wind speed is higher in the south core but is found at higher altitudes in the north core. The seasonal cycle of horizontal momentum budget defines the seasonality of Benguela CLLJ frequency of occurrence.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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