Description: Quantitatively assessing long-term volcanic risk can be challenging due to the many variables associated with volcanic hazard and vulnerability. This study presents a structured first-order approach for considering variables in hazard and vulnerability anal- yses, such as eruption style and cyclic fragility, in order to quantitatively estimate risk. Probabilistic volcanic hazard data derived from advection–diffusion–sedimentation tephra fall model TEPHRA2 and probabilistic volcanic hazard analysis tool BET_VH (Bayesian Event Tree for Volcanic Hazards) are combined with fragility functions and seasonal vulnerability coefficients for agricultural production to calculate volcanic risk indices which represent the likelihood of damage or loss to farm production over a given time frame. The resulting dataset allows for approximations of quantitative risk over a con- tinuous range of ash thickness thresholds, at multiple levels of uncertainty, and in the context of fluctuating hazard and vulnerability environments (e.g., seasonal wind patterns and crop phases). We illustrate this approach through a case study which evaluates the risk of incurring 90% damage to agricultural production at dairy and fruit farms in the Bay of Plenty region of New Zealand (BoP) due to ashfall from a Plinian eruption phase at the large local caldera volcano, the Okataina Volcanic Centre (OVC). Consideration of sea- sonal wind profiles, seasonal fluctuations in fruit and dairy farm vulnerability, multiple possible OVC eruption styles, different possible OVC vent locations, and a continuous distribution of ash thickness and damage thresholds enables a multi-dimensional analysis that aims to reflect the natural complexity and interdependencies associated with volcanic risk. A risk uncertainty matrix is introduced as a conceptual scheme to help guide eval- uation and communication of the results of such quantitative risk analyses by showing how different types of uncertainty can yield ‘‘maximum’’, ‘‘average’’, or ‘‘minimum’’ estimates of risk. Results of this case study indicate that BoP fruit farms are at higher risk of experiencing damage and production loss from OVC ashfall than dairy farms, and farms to the east of the OVC are typically at higher risk than farms to the north of the OVC. Forecasts based on the annual maximum estimate of risk for fruit farms show a regional average of 2.3% probability (greater than 1 in 50 likelihood) of experiencing 90% damage from a basaltic or rhyolitic Plinian eruption from anywhere within the OVC over a period of 100 years. Seasonal-level analyses revealed that the risk of experiencing losses due to OVC ashfall at fruit farms is cyclic and fluctuates with time of year and harvest season, with the highest risk experienced during peak harvest season (15 October–14 April) when crop vulnerability is high and westerly winds dominate in the BoP.

Description: Published

Description: 31-56

Description: 6V. Pericolosità vulcanica e contributi alla stima del rischio

Description: JCR Journal

Description: Regardless of the recent advances in geophysical monitoring and real-time quantitative observations of explosive volcanic eruptions, the characterization of tephra deposits remains one of the largest sources of information on Eruption Source Parameters (ESPs) (i.e. plume height, erupted volume/mass, Mass Eruption Rate — MER, eruption duration, Total Grain-Size Distribution — TGSD). ESPs are crucial for the characterization of volcanic systems and for the compilation of comprehensive hazard scenarios but are naturally associated with various degrees of uncertainties that are traditionally not well quantified. Recent studies have highlighted the uncertainties associated with the estimation of ESPs mostly related to: i) the intrinsic variability of the natural system, ii) the observational error and iii) the strategies used to determine physical parameters. Here we review recent studies focused on the characterization of these uncertainties and we present a sensitivity analysis for the determination of ESPs and a systematic investigation to quantify the propagation of uncertainty applied to two case studies. In particular, we highlight the dependence of ESPs on specific observations used as input parameters (i.e. diameter of the largest clasts, thickness measurements, area of isopach contours, deposit density, downwind and crosswind range of isopleth maps, and empirical constants and wind speed for the determination of MER). The highest uncertainty is associated to the estimation of MER and eruption duration and is related to the determination of crosswind range of isopleth maps and the empirical constants used in the empirical parameterization relating MER and plume height. Given the exponential nature of the relation between MER and plume height, the propagation of uncertainty is not symmetrical, and both an underestimation of the empirical constant and an overestimation of plume height have the highest impact on the final outcome. A ± 20% uncertainty on thickness measurements, area of isopach contours, integration limit for the power-law fit and deposit density result in ESP uncertainties ≤± 20% for plume height and erupted volume/mass. Finally, a third case study has also been used to explore the sensitivity of the Voronoi Tessellation strategy for the determination of TGSD and the inversion on both mass/area and grain-size data for the determination of erupted mass and plume height. Results confirm the validity of the methods but also the strong dependence on the distribution and number of observations.

Description: Published

Description: 80-100

Description: 5V. Dinamica dei processi eruttivi e post-eruttivi

Description: 6V. Pericolosità vulcanica e contributi alla stima del rischio

Description: JCR Journal

Description: Risk assessments in volcanic contexts are complicated by the multi-hazard nature of both unrest and eruption phases, which frequently occur over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. As an attempt to capture the multi-dimensional and dynamic nature of volcanic risk, we developed an integrAteD VolcanIc risk asSEssment (ADVISE) model that focuses on two temporal dimensions that authorities have to address in a volcanic context: short-term emergency management and long-term risk management. The output of risk assessment in the ADVISE model is expressed in terms of potential physical, functional, and systemic damage, determined by combining the available information on hazard, exposed systems and vulnerability. The ADVISE model permits qualitative, semi-quantitative and quantitative risk assessment depending on the final objective and on the available information. The proposed approach has evolved over a decade of study on the volcanic island of Vulcano (Italy), where recent signs of unrest combined with uncontrolled urban development and significant seasonal variations of exposed population result in highly dynamic volcanic risk. For the sake of illustration of all the steps of the ADVISE model, we focus here on the risk assessment of the transport system in relation to the tephra fallout associated with a long-lasting Vulcanian cycle.

Description: Published

Description: 7

Description: 6V. Pericolosità vulcanica e contributi alla stima del rischio

Description: N/A or not JCR

Description: Eruptive columnmodels are powerful tools for investigating the transport of volcanic gas and ash, reconstructing past explosive eruptions, and simulating future hazards. However, the evaluation of these models is challenging as it requires independent estimates of themainmodel inputs (e.g.mass eruption rate) and outputs (e.g. column height). There exists no database of independently estimated eruption source parameters (ESPs) that is extensive, standardized, maintained, and consensus-based. This paper introduces the Independent Volcanic Eruption Source Parameter Archive (IVESPA, ivespa.co.uk), a community effort endorsed by the International Association of Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth’s Interior (IAVCEI) Commission on Tephra HazardModelling.We compiled data for 134 explosive eruptive events, spanning the 1902-2016 period, with independent estimates of: i) total erupted mass of fall deposits; ii) duration; iii) eruption column height; and iv) atmospheric conditions. Crucially, we distinguish plume top versus umbrella spreading height, and the height of ash versus sulphur dioxide injection. All parameter values provided have been vetted independently by at least two experts. Uncertainties are quantified systematically, including flags to describe the degree of interpretation of the literature required for each estimate. IVESPA also includes a range of additional parameters such as total grain size distribution, eruption style, morphology of the plume (weak versus strong), and mass contribution from pyroclastic density currents, where available. We discuss the future developments and potential applications of IVESPA and make recommendations for reporting ESPs to maximize their usability across different applications. IVESPA covers an unprecedented range of ESPs and can therefore be used to evaluate and develop eruptive column models across a wide range of conditions using a standardized dataset.

Description: Published

Description: 107295

Description: 5V. Processi eruttivi e post-eruttivi

Description: JCR Journal

Description: Lahars are rapid flows composed of water and volcaniclastic sediments, which have the potential to impact residential buildings and critical infrastructure as well as to disrupt critical services, especially in the absence of hazard-based land-use planning. Their destructive power is mostly associated with their velocity (related to internal flow properties and topographic interactions) and to their ability to bury buildings and structures (due to deposit thickness). The distance reached by lahars depends on their volume, on sediments/water ratio, as well as on the geometrical properties of the topography where they propagate. Here we present the assessment of risk associated with lahar using Vulcano island (Italy) as a case study. First, we estimated an initial lahar source volume considering the remobilisation by intense rain events of the tephra fallout on the slopes of the La Fossa cone (the active system on the island), where the tephra fallout is associated with the most likely scenario (e.g. long-lasting Vulcanian cycle). Second, we modelled and identified the potential syn-eruptive lahar impact areas on the northern sector of Vulcano, where residential and touristic facilities are located. We tested a range of parameters (e.g., entrainment capability, consolidation of tephra fallout deposit, friction angle) that can influence lahar propagation output both in terms of intensity of the event and extent of the inundation area. Finally, exposure and vulnerability surveys were carried out in order to compile exposure and risk maps for lahar-flow front velocity (semi-quantitative indicator-based risk assessment) and final lahar-deposit thickness (qualitative exposure-based risk assessment). Main outcomes show that the syn-eruptive lahar scenario with medium entrainment capability produces the highest impact associated with building burial by the final lahar deposit. Nonetheless, the syn-eruptive lahar scenario with low entrainment capacity is associated with higher runout and results in the highest impact associated with lahar-flow velocities. Based on our simulations, two critical infrastructures (telecommunication and power plant), as well as the main road crossing the island are exposed to potential lahar impacts (either due to lahar-flow velocity or lahar-deposit thickness or both). These results show that a risk-based spatial planning of the island could represent a valuable strategy to reduce the volcanic risk in the long term.

Description: Published

Description: 9

Description: 6V. Pericolosità vulcanica e contributi alla stima del rischio

Description: N/A or not JCR

Description: the characterization of triggering dynamics and remobilized volumes is crucial to the assessment of associated lahar hazards. We propose an innovative treatment of the cascading effect between tephra fallout and lahar hazards based on probabilistic modelling that also accounts for a detailed description of source sediments. As an example, we have estimated the volumes of tephra fallout deposit that could be remobilized by rainfall-triggered lahars in association with two eruptive scenarios that have characterized the activity of the La Fossa cone (Vulcano, Italy) in the last 1000 years: a long-lasting Vulcanian cycle and a subplinian eruption. The spatial distribution and volume of deposits that could potentially trigger lahars were analysed based on a combination of tephra fallout probabilistic modelling (with TEPHRA2), slope-stability modelling (with TRIGRS), field observations, and geotechnical tests. Model input data were obtained from both geotechnical tests and field measurements (e.g. hydraulic conductivity, friction angle, cohesion, total unit weight of the soil, and saturated and residual water content). TRIGRS simulations show how shallow landsliding is an effective process for eroding pyroclastic deposits on Vulcano. Nonetheless, the remobilized volumes and the deposit thickness threshold for lahar initiation strongly depend on slope angle, rainfall intensity, grain size, friction angle, hydraulic conductivity, and the cohesion of the source deposit.

Description: Published

Description: 2421–2449

Description: 6V. Pericolosità vulcanica e contributi alla stima del rischio

Description: JCR Journal

Description: Rapid and simple estimation of the mass eruption rate (MER) from column height is essential for real-time volcanic hazard management and reconstruction of past explosive eruptions. Using 134 eruptive events from the new Independent Volcanic Eruption Source Parameter Archive (IVESPA, v1.0), we explore empirical MER-height relationships for four measures of column height: spreading level, sulfur dioxide height, and top height from direct observations and as reconstructed from deposits. These relationships show significant differences and highlight limitations of empirical models currently used in operational and research applications. The roles of atmospheric stratification, wind, and humidity remain challenging to detect across the wide range of eruptive conditions spanned in IVESPA, ultimately resulting in empirical relationships outperforming analytical models that account for atmospheric conditions. This finding highlights challenges in constraining the MER-height relation using heterogeneous observations and empirical models, which reinforces the need for improved eruption source parameter data sets and physics-based models.

Description: Published

Description: e2022GL102633

Description: OSV2: Complessità dei processi vulcanici: approcci multidisciplinari e multiparametrici

Description: JCR Journal