GLORIA

GEOMAR Library Ocean Research Information Access

feed icon rss

Your email was sent successfully. Check your inbox.

An error occurred while sending the email. Please try again.

Proceed reservation?

Export
  • 1
    Keywords: Forschungsbericht ; Klima ; Modell
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (25 Seiten, 3,62 MB) , Illustrationen, Diagramme
    Language: German
    Note: Förderkennzeichen BMBF 01LP1518C , Verbundnummer 01163750 , Unterschiede zwischen dem gedruckten Dokument und der elektronischen Ressource können nicht ausgeschlossen werden
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 2
    Publication Date: 2024-02-06
    Description: 〈title xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"〉Abstract〈/title〉〈p xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xml:lang="en"〉The total meridional heat transport (MHT) is relatively stable across different climates. Nevertheless, the strength of individual processes contributing to the total transport are not stable. Here we investigate the MHT and its main components especially in the atmosphere, in five coupled climate model simulations from the Deep‐Time Model Intercomparison Project (DeepMIP). These simulations target the early Eocene climatic optimum, a geological time period with high CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 concentrations, analog to the upper range of end‐of‐century CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 projections. Preindustrial and early Eocene simulations, at a range of CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 levels are used to quantify the MHT changes in response to both CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 and non‐CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 related forcings. We found that atmospheric poleward heat transport increases with CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉, while oceanic poleward heat transport decreases. The non‐CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 boundary conditions cause more MHT toward the South Pole, mainly through an increase in the southward oceanic heat transport. The changes in paleogeography increase the heat transport via transient eddies at the northern mid‐latitudes in the Eocene. The Eocene Hadley cells do not transport more heat poleward, but due to the warmer atmosphere, especially the northern cell, circulate more heat in the tropics, than today. The monsoon systems' poleward latent heat transport increases with rising CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 concentrations, but this change is counterweighted by the globally smaller Eocene monsoon area. Our results show that the changes in the monsoon systems' latent heat transport is a robust feature of CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 warming, which is in line with the currently observed precipitation increase of present day monsoon systems.〈/p〉
    Description: Plain Language Summary: In the Earth's climate system both the atmosphere and the ocean are transporting heat through different processes from the tropics toward the poles. We investigate the transport of the atmosphere in several climate model set ups, which aim to simulate the very warm climate of the early Eocene (∼56–48 Myr ago). This period is relevant, because the atmospheric CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 concentration was close to our pessimistic projection of CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 concentration for the end of the century. In our study we separate the results into transport changes due to the different set up of the Eocene, and transport changes due to larger CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 concentration values. We found that with rising CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 values the atmosphere transports more heat from the tropics to the poles. The different location of the continents and seas is influencing the heat transport of the midlatitude cyclones. The Eocene tropical meridional overturning circulation's poleward heat transport does not increase, but it circulates more heat than today. The monsoon systems seem to be affecting a globally smaller area in the Eocene, but they are also more effective in transporting heat. This conclusion is in line with the observation, that current day monsoon systems' precipitation increases, as our CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 concentration rises.〈/p〉
    Description: Key Points: 〈list list-type="bullet"〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉The latent heat transport of the monsoon increases through the Eocene higher CO〈sub〉2〈/sub〉 concentration, but it is reduced by the Eocene topography〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉The poleward heat transport of midlatitude cyclones is higher in the Northern Hemisphere in the Eocene, due to the different topography〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈list-item〉 〈p xml:lang="en"〉The Eocene northern Hadley cell circulates more heat, than in the present, while its net poleward heat transport is even less than today〈/p〉〈/list-item〉 〈/list〉 〈/p〉
    Description: Hessisches Ministerium für Wissenschaft und Kunst http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100003495
    Description: National Science Fundation
    Description: Swedish Research Council
    Description: NERC SWEET
    Description: Kakenhi
    Description: National Center for Atmospheric Research
    Description: Australian Research Council
    Description: https://www.deepmip.org/data-eocene/
    Description: https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.6860a573
    Description: https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.f17050d7
    Description: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7958397
    Description: 551.6
    Keywords: meridional heat transport ; early Eocene climatic optimum ; paleoclimate ; monsoon ; CO2 effect ; DeepMIP
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:article
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 3
    Publication Date: 2021-07-14
    Description: Abstract Exploiting the added value of the ensemble of high-resolution model simulations provided by the Med- CORDEX coordinated initiative, an updated assessment of Mediterranean extreme precipitation events as represented in different observational, reanalysis and modelling datasets is presented. A spatiotemporal characterisation of the long-term statistics of extreme precipitation is performed, using a number of different diagnostic indices. Employing a novel approach based on the timing of extreme precipitation events a number of physically consistent subregions are defined. The comparison of different diagnostics over the Mediterranean domain and physically homogeneous sub-domains is presented and discussed, focussing on the relative impact of several model configuration features (resolution, coupling, physical parameterisations) on the performance in reproducing extreme precipitation events. It is found that the agreement between the observed and modelled long-term statistics of extreme precipitation is more sensitive to the model physics, in particular convective parameterisation, than to other model configurations such as resolution and coupling.
    Description: Published
    Description: 901-913
    Description: 4A. Oceanografia e clima
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Extreme precipitation · Mediterranean climate · Regional climate modelling ; Mediterranean climate ·
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 4
    Publication Date: 2016-07-24
    Description: The recently proposed nonlinear ensemble transform filter (NETF) is extended to a fixed lag smoother. The NETF approximates Bayes' equation by applying a square root update based on weights computed from a particle filter. As an ensemble transform filter the NETF shares similarities with the widely used ETKF and can be localized analogously. Further, the smoother extension NETS can by obtained by applying the transform matrix for filtering to the ensembles at previous analysis times. To assess the nonlinear assimilation method in a high-dimensional test case, the effectiveness of the nonlinear filter and the new smoother is assessed by twin experiments with a square box configuration of NEMO ocean model. The results show that the NETF reaches a comparable assimilation performance as the LETKF. The smoothing in the NETS effectively reduces the errors in the state estimates. Different variables show very similar optimal smoothing lags, which allows for a simultaneous tuning of the lag to obtain minimal smoothing errors. In comparison to the LESTKS, the NETS is slightly less effective and the optimal lag in the NETS is shorter. This difference is caused by the different update mechanisms of both filters and can depend on the nonlinearity of the model.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Conference , notRev , info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObject
    Format: application/pdf
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 5
    Publication Date: 2017-03-20
    Description: West African summer monsoon precipitation is characterized by distinct decadal variability. Due to its well-documented link to oceanic boundary conditions in various ocean basins it represents a paradigm for decadal predictability. In this study, we reappraise this hypothesis for several sub-regions of sub-Saharan West Africa using the new German contribution to the coupled model intercomparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) near-term prediction system. In addition, we assume that dynamical downscaling of the global decadal predictions leads to an enhanced predictive skill because enhanced resolution improves the atmospheric response to oceanic forcing and land-surface feedbacks. Based on three regional climate models, a heterogeneous picture is drawn: none of the regional climate models outperforms the global decadal predictions or all other regional climate models in every region nor decade. However, for every test case at least one regional climate model was identified which outperforms the global predictions. The highest predictive skill is found in the western and central Sahel Zone with correlation coefficients and mean-square skill scores exceeding 0.9 and 0.8, respectively.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
    Format: application/pdf
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 6
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    In:  EPIC3Seminar at National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center (NMEFC), Beijing, China, November 9, 2017
    Publication Date: 2018-01-07
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Conference , notRev
    Format: application/pdf
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 7
    Publication Date: 2016-12-14
    Description: Medicanes are cyclones over the Mediterranean Sea having a tropical-like structure but a rather small size, that can produce significant damage due to the combination of intense winds and heavy precipitation. Future climate projections, performed generally with individual atmospheric climate models, indicate that the intensity of the medicanes could increase under climate change conditions. The availability of large ensembles of high resolution and ocean–atmosphere coupled regional climate model (RCM) simulations, performed in MedCORDEX and EURO-CORDEX projects, represents an opportunity to improve the assessment of the impact of climate change on medicanes. As a first step towards such an improved assessment, we analyze the ability of the RCMs used in these projects to reproduce the observed characteristics of medicanes, and the impact of increased resolution and air-sea coupling on their simulation. In these storms, air-sea interaction plays a fundamental role in their formation and intensification, a different mechanism from that of extra-tropical cyclones, where the baroclinic instability mechanism prevails. An observational database, based on satellite images combined with high resolution simulations (Miglietta et al. in Geophys Res Lett 40:2400–2405, 2013), is used as a reference for evaluating the simulations. In general, the simulated medicanes do not coincide on a case-by-case basis with the observed medicanes. However, observed medicanes with a high intensity and relatively long duration of tropical characteristics are better replicated in simulations. The observed spatial distribution of medicanes is generally well simulated, while the monthly distribution reveals the difficulty of simulating the medicanes that first appear in September after the summer minimum in occurrence. Increasing the horizontal resolution has a systematic and generally positive impact on the frequency of simulated medicanes, while the general underestimation of their intensity is not corrected in most cases. The capacity of a few models to better simulate the medicane intensity suggests that the model formulation is more important than reducing the grid spacing alone. A negative intensity feedback is frequently the result of air-sea interaction for tropical cyclones in other basins. The introduction of air-sea coupling in the present simulations has an overall limited impact on medicane frequency and intensity, but it produces an interesting seasonal shift of the simulated medicanes from autumn to winter. This fact, together with the analysis of two contrasting particular cases, indicates that the negative feedback could be limited or even absent in certain situations. We suggest that the effects of air-sea interaction on medicanes may depend on the oceanic mixed layer depth, thus increasing the applicability of ocean–atmosphere coupled RCMs for climate change analysis of this kind of cyclones.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
    Format: application/pdf
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 8
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    In:  EPIC3Liege Colloquium 2015, Liege, Belgium, May 4-8, 2015
    Publication Date: 2016-01-07
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Conference , notRev , info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObject
    Format: application/pdf
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 9
    Publication Date: 2019-07-17
    Description: This work assesses the large-scale applicability of the recently proposed nonlinear ensemble transform filter (NETF) in data assimilation experiments with the NEMO ocean general circulation model. The new filter constitutes a second-order exact approximation to fully nonlinear particle filtering. Thus, it relaxes the Gaussian assumption contained in ensemble Kalman filters. The NETF applies an update step similar to the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF), which allows for efficient and simple implementation. Here, simulated observations are assimilated into a simplified ocean configuration that exhibits globally highdimensional dynamics with a chaotic mesoscale flow. The model climatology is used to initialize an ensemble of 120 members. The number of observations in each local filter update is of the same order resulting from the use of a realistic oceanic observation scenario. Here, an importance sampling particle filter (PF) would require at least 106 members. Despite the relatively small ensemble size, the NETF remains stable and converges to the truth. In this setup, the NETF achieves at least the performance of the LETKF. However, it requires a longer spinup period because the algorithm only relies on the particle weights at the analysis time. These findings show that the NETF can successfully deal with a large-scale assimilation problem in which the local observation dimension is of the same order as the ensemble size. Thus, the second-order exact NETF does not suffer from the PF’s curse of dimensionality, even in a deterministic system.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
  • 10
    Publication Date: 2021-07-03
    Description: Extreme convective precipitation is expected to increase with global warming. However, the rate of increase and the understanding of contributing processes remain highly uncertain. We investigated characteristics of convective rain cells like area, intensity, and lifetime as simulated by a convection‐permitting climate model in the area of Germany under historical (1976–2005) and future (end‐of‐century, RCP8.5 scenario) conditions. To this end, a tracking algorithm was applied to 5‐min precipitation output. While the number of convective cells is virtually similar under historical and future conditions, there are more intense and larger cells in the future. This yields an increase in hourly precipitation extremes, although mean precipitation decreases. The relative change in the frequency distributions of area, intensity, and precipitation sum per cell is highest for the most extreme percentiles, suggesting that extreme events intensify the most. Furthermore, we investigated the temperature and moisture scaling of cell characteristics. The temperature scaling drops off at high temperatures, with a shift in drop‐off towards higher temperatures in the future, allowing for higher peak values. In contrast, dew point temperature scaling shows consistent rates across the whole dew point range. Cell characteristics scale at varying rates, either below (mean intensity), at about (maximum intensity and area), or above (precipitation sum) the Clausius–Clapeyron rate. Thus, the widely investigated extreme precipitation scaling at fixed locations is a complex product of the scaling of different cell characteristics. The dew point scaling rates and absolute values of the scaling curves in historical and future conditions are closest for the highest percentiles. Therefore, near‐surface humidity provides a good predictor for the upper limit of for example, maximum intensity and total precipitation of individual convective cells. However, the frequency distribution of the number of cells depending on dew point temperature changes in the future, preventing statistical inference of extreme precipitation from near‐surface humidity.
    Description: We investigated characteristics of convective rain cells under historical and future conditions in convection‐permitting climate simulations using a tracking algorithm. There are more intense and larger cells in the future yielding an increase in hourly precipitation extremes. The temperature scaling curves of cell characteristics shift towards higher peak values at higher temperatures in the future. In contrast, cell characteristics scale consistently with dew point temperature. Therefore, near‐surface humidity provides a good predictor for the upper limit of for example, maximum intensity, and total precipitation of convective cells.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; Clausius–Clapeyron scaling ; convection‐permitting simulation ; convective storms ; COSMO‐CLM ; precipitation ; tracking
    Type: article
    Location Call Number Limitation Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
Close ⊗
This website uses cookies and the analysis tool Matomo. More information can be found here...