Description: Mass budget calculations, validated with satellite gravity observations [from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites], enable us to quantify the individual components of recent Greenland mass loss. The total 2000–2008 mass loss of ~1500 gigatons, equivalent to 0.46 millimeters per year of global sea level rise, is equally split between surface processes (runoff and precipitation) and ice dynamics. Without the moderating effects of increased snowfall and refreezing, post-1996 Greenland ice sheet mass losses would have been 100% higher. Since 2006, high summer melt rates have increased Greenland ice sheet mass loss to 273 gigatons per year (0.75 millimeters per year of equivalent sea level rise). The seasonal cycle in surface mass balance fully accounts for detrended GRACE mass variations, confirming insignificant subannual variation in ice sheet discharge.

Description: Simulations of ice-shelf basal melting in future climate scenarios from the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) have revealed a large uncertainty and the potential of a rapidly increasing basal mass loss particularly for the large cold-water ice shelves in the Ross and Weddell Seas. The large spread in model results was traced back to uncertainties in the freshwater budget on the continental shelf, which is governed by sea-ice formation. Differences in sea-ice formation, in turn, were shown to follow the regional differences between the atmospheric heat fluxes imprinted by the climate models. A more recent suite of FESOM model experiments was performed with output from two members of the newer generation of climate models engaged in the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Comparing simulations forced with output from the AR5/CMIP5 models HadGem2 and MPI-ESM, we find that projected heat fluxes and thus sea-ice formation over the Southern Ocean continental shelves have converged to an ensemble with a much smaller spread than between the AR4 experiments. For most of the modeled ice shelves, a gradual but accelerating increase of basal melt rates during the 21st century is a robust feature. Both with HadGem2 and with MPI-ESM forcing, basal melt rates for the Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf in FESOM increase by a factor of two by the end of the 21st century in the RCP85 scenario. For the smaller, warm-water ice shelves, inter-model differences in ice-shelf basal mass loss projections are still slightly larger than differences between the scenarios RCP45 and RCP85; compared with AR4 projections, however, the model-dependent spread has been strongly reduced. Current work aims at further reducing the uncertainties arising from atmospheric forcing by using output from the regional climate model RACMO. The effect of a varying cavity geometry and the response of the grounded ice are being adressed by coupling to the RIMBay ice shelf / ice sheet model.

Description: Simulations of ice-shelf basal melting in future climate scenarios from the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) have revealed a large uncertainty and the potential of a rapidly increasing basal mass loss particularly for the large cold-water ice shelves in the Ross and Weddell Seas. The large spread in model results was traced back to uncertainties in the freshwater budget on the continental shelf, which is governed by sea-ice formation. Differences in sea-ice formation, in turn, follow the regional differences between the atmospheric heat fluxes imprinted by the climate models. A more recent suite of BRIOS and FESOM model experiments was performed with output from two members of the newer generation of climate models engaged in the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Comparing simulations forced with output from the AR5/CMIP5 models HadGem2 and MPI-ESM, we find that uncertainties arising from inter-model differences in high latitudes have reduced considerably. Projected heat fluxes and thus sea-ice formation over the Southern Ocean continental shelves have converged to an ensemble with a much smaller spread than between the AR4 experiments. For most of the ten larger ice shelves in Antarctica, a gradual (but accelerating) increase of basal melt rates during the 21st century is a robust feature throughout the various realizations. Both with HadGem2 and with MPI-ESM forcing, basal melt rates for the Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf in FESOM increase by a factor of two by the end of the 21st century in the RCP85 scenario. For the smaller, warm-water ice shelves, inter-model differences in ice-shelf basal mass loss projections are still slightly larger than differences between the scenarios RCP45 and RCP85; compared with AR4 projections, however, the model-dependent spread has been strongly reduced.

Description: Surface melt and subsequent firn air depletion can ultimately lead to disintegration of Antarctic ice shelves1,2 causing grounded glaciers to accelerate3 and sea level to rise. In the Antarctic Peninsula, foehn winds enhance melting near the grounding line4, which in the recent past has led to the disintegration of the most northerly ice shelves5,6. Here, we provide observational and model evidence that this process also occurs over an East Antarctic ice shelf, where meltwaterinduced firn air depletion is found in the grounding zone. Unlike the Antarctic Peninsula, where foehn events originate from episodic interaction of the circumpolar westerlies with the topography, in coastal East Antarctica high temperatures are caused by persistent katabatic winds originating from the ice sheet’s interior. Katabatic winds warm and mix the air as it flows downward and cause widespread snow erosion, explaining 〉3 K higher near-surface temperatures in summer and surface melt doubling in the grounding zone compared with its surroundings. Additionally, these winds expose blue ice and firn with lower surface albedo, further enhancing melt. The in situ observation of supraglacial flow and englacial storage of meltwater suggests that ice-shelf grounding zones in East Antarctica, like their Antarctic Peninsula counterparts, are vulnerable to hydrofracturing7.

Description: Over the twenty-first century, large changes in climate are projected for Antarctica and the Southern Ocean under scenarios of greenhouse gas increase and stratospheric ozone recovery.These changes would potentially have important environmental and societal implications, affecting, for example, sea level change, global ocean heat and carbon uptake, and ecosystem function. However, our ability to make precise estimates of these impacts is hampered by uncertainties in state-of-the-art climate models. Model evaluation is a key step in reducing this model uncertainty by helping to identify biases and shortcomings common to the current generation of models and highlighting priorities for future model development. The evaluation of climate models’ representation of Antarctic climate from the perspective of long-term twenty-first-century climate change was the subject of a workshop organized by Antarctic Climate 21 (AntClim21), one of six current scientific research programs of the Scientific Committee onAntarctic Research (SCAR; see www.scar.org/srp/antclim21).