Description: The value of mechanistic ecosystem modelling has long been appreciated, and in connection with trait-based approaches it has recently stimulated a more process-based understanding of adaptive capacities and trade-offs. Notwithstanding recent advances, even sophisticated state-of-the-art models of plankton ecosystems, some of which include hundreds of idealized species, do not accurately represent the great biodiversity of plankton, or the associated flexible adaptive response of plankton communities. We build on previous reviews to suggest that it may be necessary to discard some common assumptions and try new approaches in order to construct models that can make new and testable predictions about the "adaptive capacity" of plankton ecosystems. Major challenges remain unresolved for modelling interacting communities of producers and consumers. Rather than the common approach of mixing and matching existing model components, each laden with its own legacy assumptions, we suggest that a judicious combination of innovative, mechanistic approaches that combine traits and trade-offs will likely better address such challenges.

Description: Most paleo-episodes of ocean acidification (OA) were either too slow or too small to be instructive in predicting near-future impacts. The end-Cretaceous event (66 Mya) is intriguing in this regard, both because of its rapid onset and also because many pelagic calcifying species (including 100% of ammonites and more than...

Description: Recent studies have analysed valuable compilations of data for the size-scaling of phytoplankton traits, but these cannot be employed directly in most large-scale modelling studies, which typically do not explicitly resolve the relevant trait values. Although some recent large-scale modelling studies resolve species composition and sorting within communities, most do not account for the observed flexible response of phytoplankton communities, such as the dynamic acclimation often observed in laboratory experiments. In order to derive a simple yet flexible model of phytoplankton growth that can be useful for a wide variety of ocean modelling applications, we combine two trade-offs, one for growth and the other for nutrient uptake, under the optimality assumption, i.e. that intracellular resources are dynamically allocated to maximize growth rate. This yields an explicit equation for growth as a function of nutrient concentration and daily averaged irradiance. We furthermore show how with this model effective Monod parameter values depend on both the underlying trait values and environmental conditions. We apply this new model to two contrasting time-series observation sites, including idealized simulations of size diversity. The flexible model responds differently compared with an inflexible control, suggesting that acclimation by individual species could impact models of plankton diversity.

Description: Analyses of three oriented rock samples collected in the footwall of a major normal fault in Central Italy provide insights into textural properties of a lithified carbonate fault core. Data from lithified fault rocks are very rare and we document here the grain size distribution in a fault core at an unprecedented scale range, which complements already existing observations obtained from sieve, sedimentation and/or laser diffraction methods in loose deposits. X-ray powder diffraction analysis shows that the samples, which are located at a mutual distance of few tens of meters, are exclusively made of calcite. Mesoscopic samples and polished thin sections oriented normal to the fault plane have been analysed with high resolution scanner (HRS), transmission optical microscopy (TOM) and scanning electron microscopy in back-scattered mode (BS-SEM). Textural features of tectonised calcite crystals have been quantified using image analysis on digitalised photographs at magnifications from 1:1 to 9000:1, documenting size dimensions of grains from cm to sub-μm. The obtained D values have average values of 1.65 in 2D, overlapping with those independently obtained by box-counting methods in the core of the same fault by previous authors. Textures of calcite clasts in tectonised and lithified rocks can be appropriately quantified by the analytical protocols proposed here. This work represents the first multi-scale image analysis, from sub- μm to cm sizes, of the core portion of a normal fault that cut into carbonate rocks. Our study provides a template for similar investigations to be carried on other faults that will help to better understand the relations between fault textures and deformation processes.

Description: Published

Description: id 104017

Description: 2T. Deformazione crostale attiva

Description: JCR Journal

Description: The symbiotic relationship between corals and photosynthetic algae is the foundation of coral reef ecosystems. This relationship breaks down, leading to coral death, when sea temperature exceeds the thermal tolerance of the coral-algae complex. While acclimation via phenotypic plasticity at the organismal level is an important mechanism for corals to cope with global warming, community-based shifts in response to acclimating capacities may give valuable indications about the future of corals at a regional scale. Reliable regional-scale predictions, however, are hampered by uncertainties on the speed with which coral communities will be able to acclimate. Here we present a trait-based, acclimation dynamics model, which we use in combination with observational data, to provide a first, crude estimate of the speed of coral acclimation at the community level and to investigate the effects of different global warming scenarios on three iconic reef ecosystems of the tropics: Great Barrier Reef, South East Asia, and Caribbean. The model predicts that coral acclimation may confer some level of protection by delaying the decline of some reefs such as the Great Barrier Reef. However, the current rates of acclimation will not be sufficient to rescue corals from global warming. Based on our estimates of coral acclimation capacities, the model results suggest substantial declines in coral abundances in all three regions, ranging from 12% to 55%, depending on the region and on the climate change scenario considered. Our results highlight the importance and urgency of precise assessments and quantitative estimates, for example through laboratory experiments, of the natural acclimation capacity of corals and of the speed with which corals may be able to acclimate to global warming.

Description: Aim Develop a biogeographical classification of phytoplankton size distributions for the Atlantic Ocean and predict the global phytoplankton size composition based on prevailing environmental conditions. Location Atlantic Ocean and Global Ocean Methods Using phytoplankton size composition data, nutrient concentrations (nitrite+nitrate, phosphate, and silicate), irradiance, temperature and zooplankton abundances of the Atlantic Meridional Transect programme, we derived and tested an environmental classification method of phytoplankton size distribution with a k-means clustering technique. We then used principal component and Dirichlet multivariate regression analyses to disentangle the relative influence of different environmental conditions on the phytoplankton size composition. Subsequently, we evaluated different probabilisitic models and selected the most parsimonious one to estimate the global phytoplankton size distributions in the world oceans based on global climatology data of the World Ocean Atlas 2009. Results Based only on prevailing environmental conditions and without a priori knowledge concerning, for example, the position of oceanic fronts, the primary productivity, the distribution of organisms or any geographical information, our classification method captures the size structures of phytoplankton communities across the Atlantic. We find a strong influence of temperature and nitrite+nitrate concentration on the prevalence of the different size classes, and we present evidence that both factors may act independently on structuring phytoplankton communities. While at low nitrite+nitrate concentrations temperature has a major structuring impact, at high nitrite+nitrate concentrations its influence is reduced. Finally, we show that the global distribution of phytoplankton community size structure can be predicted by a probabilistic model based only on temperature and nitrite+nitrate. Main conclusion The global distribution of phytoplankton community size structure can be predicted with good approximation using a parsimonious probabilistic model forced by only temperature and nitrite+nitrate data.

Description: Evidence is accumulating about the impacts of plastics on marine life. The prevalence of plastics in seabird nests has been used as an indicator of levels of this pollutant in the ocean. However, the lack of a framework for defining sample sizes and errors associated with estimating the prevalence of plastic in nests prevents researchers from optimising time and reducing impacts of fieldwork. We present a method to determine the confidence intervals for the prevalence of debris in seabird nests and provide, for the first time, information on the prevalence of these items in nests of the Hartlaub’s gull Larus hartlaubii, the African penguin Spheniscus demersus, the great white pelican Pelecanus onocrotalus, and the white-breasted cormorant Phalacrocorax lucidus in South Africa. The method, based on observations and resampling simulations and tested here for nests of 12 seabird species from 15 locations worldwide, allows for straightforward hypothesis testing. Appropriate sample sizes can be defined by combining this method with a Bayesian approach. We show that precise estimates of prevalence of debris in nests can be obtained by sampling around 250 nests. Smaller sample sizes can be useful for obtaining rough estimates. For the Hartlaub’s gull, the African penguin, the great white pelican, and the white-breasted cormorant, debris were present in 0.75%, 3.00%, 6.41%, and 25.62% of the respective nests. Our approach will help researchers to determine errors associated with the prevalence of debris recorded in seabird nests and to optimise time and costs spent collecting data. It can also be applied to estimate confidence intervals and define sample sizes for assessing prevalence of plastic ingestion by any organism.