Description: Characteristics of the seasonal and interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) over last two interglacials, the Holocene and Eemian, are analyzed using transient climate simulations with the Kiel Climate Model (KCM). There is a tendency towards a strengthening of the seasonal as well as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation‐ (ENSO) related variability from the early to the late interglacials. The weaker EEP SST annual cycle during the early interglacials is mainly result of insolation‐forced cooling during its warm phase and dynamically‐induced warming during its cold phase. Enhanced convection over northern South America weakens northeasterlies in the EEP leading to weaker equatorial upwelling, deeper thermocline and subsequent warming in this region. We show that a negative ENSO modulation of the annual cycle operates only on short timescales and does not affect their evolution on orbital time scales where both ENSO and annual cycle show similar tendencies to increase.

Description: The large variety of atmospheric circulation systems affecting the eastern Asian climate is reflected by the complex Asian vegetation distribution. Particularly in the transition zones of these circulation systems, vegetation is supposed to be very sensitive to climate change. Since proxy records are scarce, hitherto a mechanistic understanding of the past spatio-temporal climate–vegetation relationship is lacking. To assess the Holocene vegetation change and to obtain an ensemble of potential mid-Holocene biome distributions for eastern Asia, we forced the diagnostic biome model BIOME4 with climate anomalies of different transient Holocene climate simulations performed in coupled atmosphere–ocean(–vegetation) models. The simulated biome changes are compared with pollen-based biome records for different key regions. In all simulations, substantial biome shifts during the last 6000 years are confined to the high northern latitudes and the monsoon–westerly wind transition zone, but the temporal evolution and amplitude of change strongly depend on the climate forcing. Large parts of the southern tundra are replaced by taiga during the mid-Holocene due to a warmer growing season and the boreal treeline in northern Asia is shifted northward by approx. 4° in the ensemble mean, ranging from 1.5 to 6° in the individual simulations, respectively. This simulated treeline shift is in agreement with pollen-based reconstructions from northern Siberia. The desert fraction in the transition zone is reduced by 21 % during the mid-Holocene compared to pre-industrial due to enhanced precipitation. The desert–steppe margin is shifted westward by 5° (1–9° in the individual simulations). The forest biomes are expanded north-westward by 2°, ranging from 0 to 4° in the single simulations. These results corroborate pollen-based reconstructions indicating an extended forest area in north-central China during the mid-Holocene. According to the model, the forest-to-non-forest and steppe-to-desert changes in the climate transition zones are spatially not uniform and not linear since the mid-Holocene.

Description: Highlights: • Slice and transient simulations of Holocene climate change were performed. • Spatial–temporal patterns of Holocene Asian summer precipitation are investigated. • A tripole pattern of summer precipitation can be seen over monsoonal Asia. • Insolation change is a key factor for Holocene Asian summer monsoon change. • Internal feedbacks are important to Holocene Asian summer precipitation changes. Abstract: Paleoclimate proxy records of precipitation/effective moisture show spatial–temporal inhomogeneous over Asian monsoon and monsoon marginal regions during the Holocene. To investigate the spatial differences and diverging temporal evolution over monsoonal Asia and monsoon marginal regions, we conduct a series of numerical experiments with an atmosphere–ocean–sea ice coupled climate model, the Kiel Climate Model (KCM), for the period of Holocene from 9.5 ka BP to present (0 ka BP). The simulations include two time-slice equilibrium experiments for early Holocene (9.5 ka BP) and present-day (0 ka BP), respectively and one transient simulation (HT) using a scheme for model acceleration regarding to the Earth's orbitally driven insolation forcing for the whole period of Holocene (from 9.5 to 0 ka BP). The simulated summer precipitation in the equilibrium experiments shows a tripole pattern over monsoonal Asia as depicted by the first modes of empirical orthogonal function (EOF1) of H0K and H9K. The transient simulation HT exhibits a wave train pattern in the summer precipitation across the Asian monsoon region associated with a gradually decreased trend in the strength of Asian summer monsoon, as a result of the response of Asian summer monsoon system to the Holocene orbitally-forced insolation change. Both the synthesis of multi-proxy records and model experiments confirm the regional dissimilarity of the Holocene optimum precipitation/effective moisture over the East Asian summer monsoon region, monsoon marginal region, and the westerly-dominated areas, suggesting the complex response of the regional climate systems to Holocene insolation change in association with the internal feedbacks within climate system, such as the air-sea interactions associated with the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in the evolution of Asian summer monsoon during the Holocene.

Description: The intensity of the two major atmospheric tropical circulations, the Hadley and Walker circulation, has been analyzed in simulations with the Kiel Climate Model (KCM) of the early Eemian and the early Holocene, both warmer climate epochs compared to the late Holocene, or pre-industrial era. The KCM was forced by changes in orbital parameters corresponding to the early and late Holocene (9.5kyr BP and pre-industrial) and the early Eemian (126kyr BP). An intensification of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) winter Hadley cell and a northward extension of its rising branch, the Intertropical Convergence Zone, relative to pre-industrial are simulated for both warm periods. The Walker circulation's rising branch is shifted westward towards the Indian Ocean due to an increased zonal tropical sea surface temperature (SST) gradient across the Indo-Pacific Ocean, which drives enhanced easterlies over this region. The simulated vertically-integrated water vapor transport across the Equator shows the strongest response for the SH winter (boreal summer) Hadley cell over the Pacific Ocean due to an enhanced cross-equatorial SST gradient in the tropical Pacific during the early Holocene and the early Eemian. The orbitally-induced increase of the cross-equatorial insolation gradient in the tropical Pacific leads to a strengthening (weakening) of the wind speed and enhanced (reduced) evaporative cooling over the southern (northern) tropical Pacific, which reinforces the initial radiatively-forced meridional SST gradient change. The increased cross-equatorial insolation gradient in combination with the strong wind-evaporation-SST feedback and changing humidity are important mechanisms to enhance the SH winter Hadley circulation response to orbital forcing. Key Points: Intensification of the SH winter Hadley cell for the early Holocene and Eemian. Walker circulation's rising branch is shifted westward towards the Indian Ocean. WES feedback plays key role in intensification of the Hadley circulation.

Description: The sensitivity of the hydrological cycle to changes in orbital forcing and atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations is assessed using a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice general circulation model (Kiel Climate Model). An orbitally-induced intensification of the summer monsoon circulation during the Holocene and Eemian drives enhanced water vapor advection into the Northern Hemisphere, thereby enhancing the rate of water vapor changes by about 30% relative to the rate given by the Clausius-Clapeyron Equation, assuming constant relative humidity. Orbitally-induced changes in hemispheric-mean precipitation are fully attributed to inter-hemispheric water vapor exchange in contrast to a GHG forced warming, where enhanced precipitation is caused by increased both the moisture advection and evaporation. When considering the future climate on millennial time scales, both forcings combined are expected to exert a strong effect.

Description: Climate models are potentially useful tools for addressing human dispersals and demographic change. The Arabian Peninsula is becoming increasingly significant in the story of human dispersals out of Africa during the Late Pleistocene. Although characterised largely by arid environments today, emerging climate records indicate that the peninsula was wetter many times in the past, suggesting that the region may have been inhabited considerably more than hitherto thought. Explaining the origins and spatial distribution of increased rainfall is challenging because palaeoenvironmental research in the region is in an early developmental stage. We address environmental oscillations by assembling and analysing an ensemble of five global climate models (CCSM3, COSMOS, HadCM3, KCM, and NorESM). We focus on precipitation, as the variable is key for the development of lakes, rivers and savannas. The climate models generated here were compared with published palaeoenvironmental data such as palaeolakes, speleothems and alluvial fan records as a means of validation. All five models showed, to varying degrees, that the Arabia Peninsula was significantly wetter than today during the Last Interglacial (130 ka and 126/125 ka timeslices), and that the main source of increased rainfall was from the North African summer monsoon rather than the Indian Ocean monsoon or from Mediterranean climate patterns. Where available, 104 ka (MIS 5c), 56 ka (early MIS 3) and 21 ka (LGM) timeslices showed rainfall was present but not as extensive as during the Last Interglacial. The results favour the hypothesis that humans potentially moved out of Africa and into Arabia on multiple occasions during pluvial phases of the Late Pleistocene.