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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Simulated Tropical Precipitation Assessed across Three Major Phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)
    American Meteorological Society ; 2020
    In:  Monthly Weather Review Vol. 148, No. 9 ( 2020-09-01), p. 3653-3680
    Details
    In: Monthly Weather Review, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 148, No. 9 ( 2020-09-01), p. 3653-3680
    Abstract: The representation of tropical precipitation is evaluated across three generations of models participating in phases 3, 5, and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Compared to state-of-the-art observations, improvements in tropical precipitation in the CMIP6 models are identified for some metrics, but we find no general improvement in tropical precipitation on different temporal and spatial scales. Our results indicate overall little changes across the CMIP phases for the summer monsoons, the double-ITCZ bias, and the diurnal cycle of tropical precipitation. We find a reduced amount of drizzle events in CMIP6, but tropical precipitation occurs still too frequently. Continuous improvements across the CMIP phases are identified for the number of consecutive dry days, for the representation of modes of variability, namely, the Madden–Julian oscillation and El Niño–Southern Oscillation, and for the trends in dry months in the twentieth century. The observed positive trend in extreme wet months is, however, not captured by any of the CMIP phases, which simulate negative trends for extremely wet months in the twentieth century. The regional biases are larger than a climate change signal one hopes to use the models to identify. Given the pace of climate change as compared to the pace of model improvements to simulate tropical precipitation, we question the past strategy of the development of the present class of global climate models as the mainstay of the scientific response to climate change. We suggest the exploration of alternative approaches such as high-resolution storm-resolving models that can offer better prospects to inform us about how tropical precipitation might change with anthropogenic warming.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0027-0644 , 1520-0493
    URL: Article
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-19-0404.1
    DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-19-0404.s1
    RVK:
    RA 1000
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2020
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    detail.hit.zdb_id: 202616-8
    SSG: 14
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Three‐dimensional simulation of stratospheric background aerosol: First results of a multiannual general circulation model simulation
    American Geophysical Union (AGU) ; 2001
    In:  Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Vol. 106, No. D22 ( 2001-11-27), p. 28313-28332
    Details
    In: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, American Geophysical Union (AGU), Vol. 106, No. D22 ( 2001-11-27), p. 28313-28332
    Abstract: A sulfuric acid aerosol model has been implemented in the global general circulation model ECHAM4. This model treats the formation, the development, and the transport of stratospheric sulfuric acid aerosol. The aerosol size distribution and the sulfuric acid mass fraction are calculated as a function of the H 2 SO 4 /H 2 O concentration, temperature, and air pressure in a size range between 0.001 μ and 2.58 μ. Binary homogeneous nucleation of H 2 SO 4 /H 2 O, condensation and evaporation of H 2 SO 4 and H 2 O, Brownian coagulation and gravitational sedimentation are included. The microphysical model for stratospheric sulfate aerosol and a stratospheric sulfur chemistry are combined with a representation of the tropospheric sulfur chemistry. This tropospheric scheme accounts for the natural and anthropogenic emissions, chemistry, and dry and wet deposition of DMS, SO 2 , and SO 4 2− . Globally and seasonally different SO 2 − and SO 4 2− sources for stratospheric aerosol can therefore be taken into account. Results of a multiannual simulation show that the simulated SO 2 and H 2 SO 4 concentrations are generally in good agreement with available observations. The formation of new particles through homogeneous nucleation takes place in the tropical lower stratosphere and upper troposphere and in polar spring. The aerosol surface area density and the aerosol mass concentration reproduce lower stratospheric background conditions quite well. Effective radius and aerosol mixing ratio agree also with satellite and in situ measurements at Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0148-0227
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1029/2001JD000765
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2001
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2033040-6
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 3094104-0
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2130824-X
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2016813-5
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2016810-X
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2403298-0
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2016800-7
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 161666-3
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 161667-5
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2969341-X
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 161665-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 3094268-8
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 710256-2
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2016804-4
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 3094181-7
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 3094219-6
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 3094167-2
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2220777-6
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 3094197-0
    SSG: 16,13
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  • 3
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    Delayed winter warming: A robust decadal response to strong tropical volcanic eruptions?
    American Geophysical Union (AGU) ; 2013
    In:  Geophysical Research Letters Vol. 40, No. 1 ( 2013-01-16), p. 204-209
    Details
    In: Geophysical Research Letters, American Geophysical Union (AGU), Vol. 40, No. 1 ( 2013-01-16), p. 204-209
    Abstract: Volcanic forcing has long‐lasting repercussions on European winter climate The decadal climate response to volcanic forcing entails European warm winters This delayed winter warming is tractable only in a statistical sense
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0094-8276 , 1944-8007
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1029/2012GL054403
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2013
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021599-X
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 7403-2
    SSG: 16,13
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  • 4
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    Using a large ensemble of simulations to assess the Northern Hemisphere stratospheric dynamical response to tropical volcanic eruptions and its uncertainty
    American Geophysical Union (AGU) ; 2016
    In:  Geophysical Research Letters Vol. 43, No. 17 ( 2016-09-16), p. 9324-9332
    Details
    In: Geophysical Research Letters, American Geophysical Union (AGU), Vol. 43, No. 17 ( 2016-09-16), p. 9324-9332
    Abstract: A large ensemble of 15 members is needed to detect a 95% significant impact of the Pinatubo eruption on the NH polar vortex If only the two strongest eruptions since 1850 are considered, the CMIP5 models robustly simulate a strengthening of the NH polar vortex Including smaller eruptions in the sample reduces the signal‐to‐noise ratio of the simulated NH polar vortex response
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0094-8276 , 1944-8007
    URL: Issue
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1002/grl.v43.17
    DOI: 10.1002/2016GL070587
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2016
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    detail.hit.zdb_id: 7403-2
    SSG: 16,13
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  • 5
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    Online Resource
    Decadal Disruption of the QBO by Tropical Volcanic Supereruptions
    American Geophysical Union (AGU) ; 2021
    In:  Geophysical Research Letters Vol. 48, No. 5 ( 2021-03-16)
    Details
    In: Geophysical Research Letters, American Geophysical Union (AGU), Vol. 48, No. 5 ( 2021-03-16)
    Abstract: Los Chocoyos sulfur‐ and halogen‐rich supereruption Volcanic forcing changes chemistry, radiation, and dynamics Super volcanic eruption disrupts the Quasi Biennial Oscillation
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0094-8276 , 1944-8007
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1029/2020GL089687
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2021
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    detail.hit.zdb_id: 7403-2
    SSG: 16,13
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  • 6
    Online Resource
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    Disentangling the causes of the 1816 European year without a summer
    IOP Publishing ; 2019
    In:  Environmental Research Letters Vol. 14, No. 9 ( 2019-09-01), p. 094019-
    Details
    In: Environmental Research Letters, IOP Publishing, Vol. 14, No. 9 ( 2019-09-01), p. 094019-
    Abstract: The European summer of 1816 has often been referred to as a ‘year without a summer’ due to anomalously cold conditions and unusual wetness, which led to widespread famines and agricultural failures. The cause has often been assumed to be the eruption of Mount Tambora in April 1815, however this link has not, until now, been proven. Here we apply state-of-the-art event attribution methods to quantify the contribution by the eruption and random weather variability to this extreme European summer climate anomaly. By selecting analogue summers that have similar sea-level-pressure patterns to that observed in 1816 from both observations and unperturbed climate model simulations, we show that the circulation state can reproduce the precipitation anomaly without external forcing, but can explain only about a quarter of the anomalously cold conditions. We find that in climate models, including the forcing by the Tambora eruption makes the European cold anomaly up to 100 times more likely, while the precipitation anomaly became 1.5–3 times as likely, attributing a large fraction of the observed anomalies to the volcanic forcing. Our study thus demonstrates how linking regional climate anomalies to large-scale circulation is necessary to quantitatively interpret and attribute post-eruption variability.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1748-9326
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab3a10
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: IOP Publishing
    Publication Date: 2019
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2255379-4
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  • 7
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Sensitivity of regional monsoons to idealised equatorial volcanic eruption of different sulfur emission strengths
    IOP Publishing ; 2022
    In:  Environmental Research Letters Vol. 17, No. 5 ( 2022-05-01), p. 054001-
    Details
    In: Environmental Research Letters, IOP Publishing, Vol. 17, No. 5 ( 2022-05-01), p. 054001-
    Abstract: The impact of volcanic forcing on tropical precipitation is investigated in a new set of sensitivity experiments within the Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble framework. Five ensembles are created, each containing 100 realizations for an idealized ‘Pinatubo-like’ equatorial volcanic eruption with emissions covering a range of 2.5-40 Tg sulfur (S). The ensembles provide an excellent database to disentangle the influence of volcanic forcing on monsoons and tropical hydroclimate over the wide spectrum of the climate’s internal variability. Monsoons are generally weaker for two years after volcanic eruption and their weakening is a function of emissions. However, only a stronger than Pinatubo-like eruption ( ⩾ 10 Tg S) leads to significant and substantial monsoon changes, and some regions (such as North and South Africa, South America and South Asia) are much more sensitive to this kind of forcing than the others. The decreased monsoon precipitation is strongly tied to the weakening of the regional tropical overturning. The reduced atmospheric net energy input and increased gross moist stability at the Hadley circulation updraft due to the equatorial volcanic eruption, require a slowdown of the circulation as a consequence of less moist static energy exported away from the intertropical convergence zone.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1748-9326
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac62af
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: IOP Publishing
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2255379-4
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  • 8
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    Thermohaline patterns of intrinsic Atlantic Multidecadal Variability in MPI-ESM-LR
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2023
    In:  Climate Dynamics Vol. 61, No. 5-6 ( 2023-09), p. 2371-2393
    Details
    In: Climate Dynamics, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 61, No. 5-6 ( 2023-09), p. 2371-2393
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0930-7575 , 1432-0894
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1007/s00382-023-06679-w
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2023
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 382992-3
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 1471747-5
    SSG: 16,13
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  • 9
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    Online Resource
    Interactive stratospheric aerosol models' response to different amounts and altitudes of SO 2 injection during the 1991 Pinatubo eruption
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2023
    In:  Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Vol. 23, No. 2 ( 2023-01-19), p. 921-948
    Details
    In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 23, No. 2 ( 2023-01-19), p. 921-948
    Abstract: Abstract. A previous model intercomparison of the Tambora aerosol cloud has highlighted substantial differences among simulated volcanic aerosol properties in the pre-industrial stratosphere and has led to questions about the applicability of global aerosol models for large-magnitude explosive eruptions prior to the observational period. Here, we compare the evolution of the stratospheric aerosol cloud following the well-observed June 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption simulated with six interactive stratospheric aerosol microphysics models to a range of observational data sets. Our primary focus is on the uncertainties regarding initial SO2 emission following the Pinatubo eruption, as prescribed in the Historical Eruptions SO2 Emission Assessment experiments (HErSEA), in the framework of the Interactive Stratospheric Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project (ISA-MIP). Six global models with interactive aerosol microphysics took part in this study: ECHAM6-SALSA, EMAC, ECHAM5-HAM, SOCOL-AERv2, ULAQ-CCM, and UM-UKCA. Model simulations are performed by varying the SO2 injection amount (ranging between 5 and 10 Tg S) and the altitude of injection (between 18–25 km). The comparisons show that all models consistently demonstrate faster reduction from the peak in sulfate mass burden in the tropical stratosphere. Most models also show a stronger transport towards the extratropics in the Northern Hemisphere, at the expense of the observed tropical confinement, suggesting a much weaker subtropical barrier in all the models, which results in a shorter e-folding time compared to the observations. Furthermore, simulations in which more than 5 Tg S in the form of SO2 is injected show an initial overestimation of the sulfate burden in the tropics and, in some models, in the Northern Hemisphere and a large surface area density a few months after the eruption compared to the values measured in the tropics and the in situ measurements over Laramie. This draws attention to the importance of including processes such as the ash injection for the removal of the initial SO2 and aerosol lofting through local heating.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1680-7324
    URL: Article
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/acp-23-921-2023
    DOI: 10.5194/acp-23-921-2023-supplement
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2023
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2092549-9
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2069847-1
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  • 10
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    Online Resource
    Climatic and societal impacts in Scandinavia following the 536 and 540 CE volcanic double event
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2023
    In:  Climate of the Past Vol. 19, No. 2 ( 2023-02-03), p. 357-398
    Details
    In: Climate of the Past, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 19, No. 2 ( 2023-02-03), p. 357-398
    Abstract: Abstract. In the Northern Hemisphere, the mid-6th century was one of the coldest periods of the last 2000 years, which was initiated by volcanic eruptions in 536 and 540 CE. Here, we study the effect of this volcanic double event on the climate and society in Scandinavia with a special focus on southern Norway. Using an ensemble of Max Planck Institute Earth system model transient simulations for 521–680 CE, temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric circulation patterns are analyzed. The simulated cooling magnitude is used as input for a growing degree day (GDD) model setup for three different study areas in southern Norway, representative of typical meteorological and landscape conditions. Pollen from bogs inside these study areas are analyzed at high resolution (1–3 cm sample intervals) to give insights into the validity of the GDD model setup with regard to the volcanic climate impact on the regional scale and to link the different data sets with the archeological records. We find that after the 536 and 540 CE double event, a maximum surface air cooling of up to 3.5 ∘C during the mean growing season is simulated regionally for southern Norway. With a scenario cooling of 3 ∘C, the GDD model indicates crop failures were likely in our northernmost and western study areas, while crops were more likely to mature in the southeastern study area. These results are in agreement with the pollen records from the respective areas. Archeological excavations show, however, a more complex pattern for the three areas with abandonment of farms and severe social impacts but also a continuation of occupation or a mix of those. Finally, we discuss the likely climatic and societal impacts of the 536 and 540 CE volcanic double event by synthesizing the new and available data sets for the whole Scandinavia.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1814-9332
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/cp-19-357-2023
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2023
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2217985-9
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