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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2021-02-08
    Description: Characteristics of the seasonal and interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) over last two interglacials, the Holocene and Eemian, are analyzed using transient climate simulations with the Kiel Climate Model (KCM). There is a tendency towards a strengthening of the seasonal as well as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation‐ (ENSO) related variability from the early to the late interglacials. The weaker EEP SST annual cycle during the early interglacials is mainly result of insolation‐forced cooling during its warm phase and dynamically‐induced warming during its cold phase. Enhanced convection over northern South America weakens northeasterlies in the EEP leading to weaker equatorial upwelling, deeper thermocline and subsequent warming in this region. We show that a negative ENSO modulation of the annual cycle operates only on short timescales and does not affect their evolution on orbital time scales where both ENSO and annual cycle show similar tendencies to increase.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 2
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    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
    In:  Geophysical Research Letters, 42 (20). pp. 8530-8537.
    Publication Date: 2019-09-24
    Description: We performed simulations with a global model of ocean biogeochemistry forced with orbitally driven anomalies of oceanic conditions for the mid-Holocene, known as Holocene climate optimum, to investigate natural variability in the eastern equatorial Pacific oxygen minimum zone (EEP OMZ). While the global mean temperature during the mid-Holocene was likely slightly higher than the 1961–1990 mean, the sea surface temperature in the EEP was slightly lower. Mid-Holocene oxygen concentrations in the EEP OMZ are generally increased, locally by up to 50%, and the EEP OMZ volume was, depending on definition of the OMZ threshold, at least 6% lower. These higher oxygen levels are the combined result of competing physical and biogeochemical processes. Our results imply that mechanisms for past changes in the EEP OMZ intensity and extension can differ from the global warming driven decline in oxygen levels observed for the recent decades and predicted for the future.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2024-02-07
    Description: Driven by climate change, marine biodiversity is undergoing a phase of rapid change that has proven to be even faster than changes observed in terrestrial ecosystems. Understanding how these changes in species composition will affect future marine life is crucial for conservation management, especially due to increasing demands for marine natural resources. Here, we analyse predictions of a multiparameter habitat suitability model covering the global projected ranges of 〉33,500 marine species from climate model projections under three CO2 emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) up to the year 2100. Our results show that the core habitat area will decline for many species, resulting in a net loss of 50% of the core habitat area for almost half of all marine species in 2100 under the high-emission scenario RCP8.5. As an additional consequence of the continuing distributional reorganization of marine life, gaps around the equator will appear for 8% (RCP2.6), 24% (RCP4.5), and 88% (RCP8.5) of marine species with cross-equatorial ranges. For many more species, continuous distributional ranges will be disrupted, thus reducing effective population size. In addition, high invasion rates in higher latitudes and polar regions will lead to substantial changes in the ecosystem and food web structure, particularly regarding the introduction of new predators. Overall, our study highlights that the degree of spatial and structural reorganization of marine life with ensued consequences for ecosystem functionality and conservation efforts will critically depend on the realized greenhouse gas emission pathway.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2024-02-07
    Description: The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a key feature of the North Atlantic with global ocean impacts. The AMOC's response to past changes in forcings during the Holocene provides important context for the coming centuries. Here, we investigate AMOC trends using an emerging set of transient simulations using multiple global climate models for the past 6,000 years. Although some models show changes, no consistent trend in overall AMOC strength during the mid-to-late Holocene emerges from the ensemble. We interpret this result to suggest no overall change in AMOC, which fits with our assessment of available proxy reconstructions. The decadal variability of the AMOC does not change in ensemble during the mid- and late-Holocene. There are interesting AMOC changes seen in the early Holocene, but their nature depends a lot on which inputs are used to drive the experiment.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2017-01-27
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2023-10-21
    Description: EMB Future Science Brief No. 10 highlights the most recent science on Ocean oxygen, including causes, impacts and mitigation strategies of Ocean oxygen loss, and discusses whether “every second breath we take comes from the Ocean”. It closes with key policy, management and research recommendations to address Ocean deoxygenation and communicate more accurately about the role of the Ocean in Earth’s oxygen. The sentence “every second breath you take comes from the Ocean” is commonly used in Ocean Literacy and science communication to highlight the importance of Ocean oxygen. However, despite its widespread use, it is often not phrased correctly. In contrast, there is little awareness about the threat of the global oxygen loss in the Ocean, called deoxygenation, particularly in comparison with other important stressors, such as Ocean acidification or increasing seawater temperatures. Deoxygenation is increasing in the coastal and open Ocean, primarily due to human-induced global warming and nutrient run-off from land, and projections show that the Ocean will continue losing oxygen as global warming continues. The consequences of oxygen loss in the Ocean are extensive and include decreased biodiversity, shifts in species distributions, displacement or reduction in fisheries resources, changes in biogeochemical cycling and mass mortalities. Low oxygen conditions also drive other chemical processes which produce greenhouse gases, toxic compounds and further degrade water quality. The degraded water quality directly affects marine ecosystems, but also indirectly impacts ecosystem services supporting local communities, regional economies and tourism. Although there are still gaps in our knowledge, we know enough to be very concerned about the consequences: the impacts might even be larger than from Ocean acidification or heat waves, and three out of the five global mass extinctions were linked to Ocean deoxygenation. The sense of urgency to improve Ocean health is reflected in the UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development (Ocean Decade) and the EU Mission: Restore our Ocean and Waters (Mission Ocean), and tackling the loss of oxygen in the Ocean is critical to achieving the aims of these two initiatives.
    Description: Published
    Description: Refereed
    Keywords: Ocean oxygen ; Deoxygenation
    Repository Name: AquaDocs
    Type: Book/Monograph/Conference Proceedings
    Format: 84pp.
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2023-09-22
    Description: Driven by climate change, marine biodiversity is undergoing a phase of rapid change that has proven to be even faster than changes observed in terrestrial ecosystems. Understanding how these changes in species composition will affect future marine life is crucial for conservation management, especially due to increasing demands for marine natural resources. Here, we analyse predictions of a multiparameter habitat suitability model covering the global projected ranges of 〉33,500 marine species from climate model projections under three CO2 emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) up to the year 2100. Our results show that the core habitat area will decline for many species, resulting in a net loss of 50% of the core habitat area for almost half of all marine species in 2100 under the high-emission scenario RCP8.5. As an additional consequence of the continuing distributional reorganization of marine life, gaps around the equator will appear for 8% (RCP2.6), 24% (RCP4.5), and 88% (RCP8.5) of marine species with cross-equatorial ranges. For many more species, continuous distributional ranges will be disrupted, thus reducing effective population size. In addition, high invasion rates in higher latitudes and polar regions will lead to substantial changes in the ecosystem and food web structure, particularly regarding the introduction of new predators. Overall, our study highlights that the degree of spatial and structural reorganization of marine life with ensued consequences for ecosystem functionality and conservation efforts will critically depend on the realized greenhouse gas emission pathway.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , peerRev
    Format: application/pdf
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