Description: Understanding the dynamics of warm climate states has gained increasing importance in the face of anthropogenic climate change, and while it is possible to simulate warm interglacial climates, these simulated results cannot be evaluated without the aid of geochemical proxies. One such proxy is δ18O, which allows for inference about both a climate state's hydrology and temperature. We utilize a stable water isotope equipped climate model to simulate three stages during the Last Interglacial (LIG), corresponding to 130, 125, and 120 kyr before present, using forcings for orbital configuration as well as greenhouse gases. We discover heterogeneous responses in the mean δ18O signal to the climate forcing, with large areas of depletion in the LIG δ18O signal over the tropical Atlantic, the Sahel, and the Indian subcontinent, and with enrichment over the Pacific and Arctic Oceans. While we find that the climatology mean relationship between δ18O and temperature remains stable during the LIG, we also discover that this relationship is not spatially consistent. Our results suggest that great care must be taken when comparing δ18O records of different paleoclimate archives with the results of climate models as both the qualitative and quantitative interpretation of δ18O variations as a proxy for past temperature changes may be problematic due to the complexity of the signals.

Description: The West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is considered the major contributor to global sea level rise in the Last Interglacial (LIG) and potentially in the future. Exposed fossil reef terraces suggest sea levels in excess of 7 m in the last warm era, of which probably not much more than 2 m are considered to originate from melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet. We simulate the evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet during the LIG with a 3‐D thermomechanical ice sheet model forced by an atmosphere‐ocean general circulation model (AOGCM). Our results show that high LIG sea levels cannot be reproduced with the atmosphere‐ocean forcing delivered by current AOGCMs. However, when taking reconstructed Southern Ocean temperature anomalies of several degrees, sensitivity studies indicate a Southern Ocean temperature anomaly threshold for total WAIS collapse of 2–3°C, accounting for a sea level rise of 3–4 m during the LIG. Potential future Antarctic Ice Sheet dynamics range from a moderate retreat to a complete collapse, depending on rate and amplitude of warming.

Description: Along the margins of continental ice sheets, lakes formed in isostatically depressed basins duringglacial retreat. Their shorelines and extent are sensitive to the ice margin and the glacial history of the region.Proglacial lakes, in turn, also impact the glacial isostatic adjustment due to loading, and ice dynamics by posing amarine‐like boundary condition at the ice margin. In this study we present a tool that efficiently identifies lake basinsand the corresponding maximum water level for a given ice sheet and topography reconstruction. This algorithm,called the LakeCC model, iteratively checks the whole map for a set of increasing water levels and fills isolated basinsuntil they overflow into the ocean. We apply it to the present‐day Great Lakes and the results show good agreement(∼1−4%) with measured lake volume and depth. We then apply it to two topography reconstructions of NorthAmerica between the Last Glacial Maximum and the present. The model successfully reconstructs glacial lakes suchas Lake Agassiz, Lake McConnell and the predecessors of the Great Lakes. LakeCC can be used to judge the quality ofice sheet reconstructions.

Description: Warming of the North Atlantic region in climate history often was associated with massive melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet. To identify the meltwater’s impacts and isolate these from internal variability and other global warming factors, we run single-forcing simulations including small ensembles using three complex climate models differing only in their ocean components. In 200-year long pre-industrial climate simulations, we identify robust consequences of abruptly increasing Greenland runoff by 0.05 Sv: sea-level rise of 44±10 cm, subpolar North Atlantic surface cooling of 0.7˚C and a moderate AMOC decline of 1.1–2.0 Sv. The latter two emerge in under three decades—and reverse on the same timescale after the perturbation ends in year 100. The ocean translates the step-change perturbation into a multi-decadal to centennial signature in the deep overturning circulation. In all simulations, internal variability creates notable uncertainty in estimating trends, time of emergence and duration of the response.

Description: Numerical simulations employing prognostic stable water isotopes can not only facilitate our understanding of hydrological processes and climate change but also allow for a direct comparison between isotope signals obtained from models and various archives. In the current work, we describe the performance and explore the potential of a new version of the Earth system model AWI-ESM (Alfred Wegener Institute Earth System Model), labeled AWI-ESM-2.1-wiso, in which we incorporated three isotope tracers into all relevant components of the water cycle. We present here the results of pre-industrial (PI) and mid-Holocene (MH) simulations. The model reproduces the observed PI isotope compositions in both precipitation and seawater well and captures their major differences from the MH conditions. The simulated relationship between the isotope composition in precipitation (δ18Op) and surface air temperature is very similar between the PI and MH conditions, and it is largely consistent with modern observations despite some regional model biases. The ratio of the MH–PI difference in δ18Op to the MH–PI difference in surface air temperature is comparable to proxy records over Greenland and Antarctica only when summertime air temperature is considered. An amount effect is evident over the North African monsoon domain, where a negative correlation between δ18Op and the amount of precipitation is simulated. As an example of model applications, we studied the onset and withdrawal date of the MH West African summer monsoon (WASM) using daily variables. We find that defining the WASM onset based on precipitation alone may yield erroneous results due to the substantial daily variations in precipitation, which may obscure the distinction between pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons. Combining precipitation and isotope indicators, we suggest in this work a novel method for identifying the commencement of the WASM. Moreover, we do not find an obvious difference between the MH and PI periods in terms of the mean onset of the WASM. However, an advancement in the WASM withdrawal is found in the MH compared to the PI period due to an earlier decline in insolation over the northern location of Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ).

Description: In order to quantify the relative importance of individual boundary conditions and forcings, including greenhouse gases, ice sheets, and Earth's orbital parameters, on determining Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) climate, we have performed a series of LGM experiments using a state-of-the-art climate model AWI-ESM, in which different combinations of boundary conditions and forcings have been applied following the protocol of Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project phase 4 (PMIP4). In good agreement with observational proxy records, a general colder and drier climate is simulated in our full-forced LGM experiment as compared to the present-day simulation. Our simulated results from non-full-forced sensitivity simulations reveal that both the greenhouse gases and ice sheets play a major role in defining the anomalous LGM surface temperature compared to today. Decreased greenhouse gases in LGM as compared to present day leads to a non-uniform global cooling with polar amplification effect. The presence of LGM ice sheets favors a warming over the Arctic and northern Atlantic oceans in boreal winter, as well as a cooling over regions with the presence of ice sheets. The former is induced by a strengthening in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) transporting more heat to high latitudes, whilst the latter is due to the increased surface albedo and elevation of ice sheets. We find that the Northern Hemisphere monsoon precipitation is influenced by the opposing effects of LGM greenhouse gases and ice sheets. Specifically, the presence of ice sheets leads to significant drying in the Northern Hemisphere monsoon regions, while a reduction in greenhouse gases results in increased monsoon rainfall. Based on our model results, continental ice sheets exert a major control on atmospheric dynamics and the variability of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Moreover, our analysis also implies a nonlinearity in climate response to LGM boundary conditions and forcings.

Description: The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a key feature of the North Atlantic with global ocean impacts. The AMOC's response to past changes in forcings during the Holocene provides important context for the coming centuries. Here, we investigate AMOC trends using an emerging set of transient simulations using multiple global climate models for the past 6,000 years. Although some models show changes, no consistent trend in overall AMOC strength during the mid-to-late Holocene emerges from the ensemble. We interpret this result to suggest no overall change in AMOC, which fits with our assessment of available proxy reconstructions. The decadal variability of the AMOC does not change in ensemble during the mid- and late-Holocene. There are interesting AMOC changes seen in the early Holocene, but their nature depends a lot on which inputs are used to drive the experiment.

Description: Changes of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in the mid‐Holocene compared to the preindustrial state are explored in different coupled climate models. Using time‐slice integrations by a newly developed global finite‐element model ECHAM6‐FESOM with unstructured mesh and high resolution, our simulations show an enhanced mid‐Holocene AMOC, accompanied by an increase in the ocean salinity over regions of deep water formation. We identify two different processes affecting the AMOC: (1) a more positive phase of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) increased water density over the Labrador Sea through anomalous net evaporation and surface heat loss; (2) a decreased import of sea ice from the Arctic causes a freshwater reduction in the northern North Atlantic Ocean. Using the coupled model ECHAM6‐MPIOM in T63GR15 and T31GR30 grids, we find that the simulated AMOC has significant discrepancy with different model resolutions. In detail, stronger‐than‐present mid‐Holocene AMOC is revealed by simulations with the T63GR15 grid, which resembles the result of ECHAM6‐FESOM, while a decline of the mid‐Holocene AMOC is simulated by the low resolution model with the T31GR30 grid. Such discrepancy can be attributed to different changes in Labrador Sea density which is mainly affected by (1) NAO‐induced net precipitation and deep water convection, (2) freshwater transport from the Arctic Ocean, and (3) the strength of AMOC itself. Finally, we analyzed available coupled climate models showing a diversity of responses of AMOC to mid‐Holocene forcings, most of which reveal positive AMOC changes related to northern high latitudes salinification.