Description: The relationship between River Ammer flood frequency variability, extreme summer climate over Europe, and solar forcing is investigated. First, we used observational data to evaluate extreme weather and climate anomaly patterns associated with flood and solar forcing as well as the possible dynamical mechanisms behind them. Then, the annual resolution flood layer record from the Lake Ammer sediments is analysed to evaluate millennial‐scale variability of floods and possible related extreme climate patterns back to 5,500 years BP. A composite analysis reveals that observed River Ammer flood frequency variability at interannual to multidecadal time scales is connected to large‐scale extreme precipitation and temperature patterns. From a synoptic‐scale perspective, the extreme precipitation pattern associated with floods is related to an increase in the frequency of high upper‐level potential vorticity (PV) events over western Europe and a decrease over eastern Europe and western Russia. Increased (decreased) frequency of upper‐level high PV events is related to more (less) surface extreme precipitation occurrence. Furthermore, we show that increased frequency of upper‐level high PV events over western Europe is associated with enhanced blocking activity over eastern Europe. Therefore, the out of phase interannual to millennial‐scale variations of River Ammer flood frequency and solar irradiance, as presented in previous studies, can be explained by a solar modulation of eastern European‐western Russia summer blocking and associated upstream upper‐level wave breaking activity. In addition, we identify two distinct quasi‐periodic signals in both frequency of Lake Ammer flood layer and solar irradiance records with periods of ~900 years and ~2,300 years. We argue that similar cycles should dominate millennial‐scale variations of blocking activity in eastern Europe‐western Russia as well as extreme precipitation and flood frequency variability over central and western Europe during the last ~5,500 years.

Description: The role of the large-scale atmospheric circulation in producing heavy rainfall events and floods in the eastern part of Europe, with a special focus on the Siret and Prut catchment areas (Romania), is analyzed in this study. Moreover, a detailed analysis of the socio-economic impacts of the most extreme flood events (e.g., July 2008, June–July 2010, and June 2020) is given. Analysis of the largest flood events indicates that the flood peaks have been preceded up to 6 days in advance by intrusions of high Potential Vorticity (PV) anomalies toward the southeastern part of Europe, persistent cut-off lows over the analyzed region, and increased water vapor transport over the catchment areas of Siret and Prut Rivers. The vertically integrated water vapor transport prior to the flood peak exceeds 300 kg m-1 s-1, leading to heavy rainfall events. We also show that the implementation of the Flood Management Plan in Romania had positive results during the 2020 flood event compared with the other flood events, when the authorities took several precaution measurements that mitigated in a better way the socio-economic impact and risks of the flood event. The results presented in this study offer new insights regarding the importance of large-scale atmospheric circulation and water vapor transport as drivers of extreme flooding in the eastern part of Europe and could lead to a better flood forecast and flood risk management.

Description: This paper aims to develop the first differentiated (earlywood—EW, latewood—LW, and total ring width—RW) dendrochronological series for ash (Fraxinus excelsior L.) and oak (Quercus robur L.) trees from the Republic of Moldova, and to analyze their climatic response and their spatio-temporal stability. For this, 18 ash and 26 oak trees were cored from the DobruÈ�a protected area, Republic of Moldova, Eastern Europe, and new EW, LW, and RW chronologies were developed for ash and oak covering the last century. The obtained results showed that the RW and LW have a similar climatic response for both species, while EW is capturing interannual climate variations and has a different reaction. The analyses performed with monthly climatic data revealed a significant and negative correlation with the mean air temperature and a significant and positive correlation with precipitation and the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) for both ash and oak. The temperature during the vegetation period has a strong influence on all tree-ring components of ash, while for oak the strong correlation was found only for LW. The positive and significant correlation between LW and RW with precipitation for both species, suggests that ash and oak are sensitive to the hydrological component and the precipitation is the main tree growth-limiting factor. Despite the significant correlation with precipitation and temperature for the whole analyzed period, the 25-year moving correlation analyses show that they are not stable in time and can switch from positive to negative or vice versa, while the correlation with SPEI3 drought index, which is a integration of both climatic parameters, is stable in time. By employing the stability map analysis, we show that oak and ash tree ring components, from the eastern part of the Republic of Moldova, have a stable and significant correlation with SPEI3 and scPDSI drought indices from February (January) until September, over the eastern part of Europe.

Description: The variability of stable oxygen isotope ratios (δ18O) from Greenland ice cores is commonly linked to changes in local climate and associated teleconnection patterns. In this respect, in this study we investigate ice core δ18O variability from a synoptic scale perspective to assess the potential of such records as proxies for extreme climate variability and associated weather patterns. We show that positive (negative) δ18O anomalies in three southern and central Greenland ice cores are associated with relatively high (low) Rossby Wave Breaking (RWB) activity in the North Atlantic region. Both cyclonic and anticyclonic RWB patterns associated with high δ18O show filaments of strong moisture transport from the Atlantic Ocean towards Greenland. During such events, warm and wet conditions are recorded over southern, western and central part of Greenland. In the same time the cyclonic and anticyclonic RWB patterns show enhanced southward advection of cold polar air masses on their eastern side, leading to extreme cold conditions over Europe. The association between high δ18O winters in Greenland ice cores and extremely cold winters over Europe is partly explained by the modulation of the RWB frequency by the tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature forcing, as shown in recent modeling studies. We argue that δ18O from Greenland ice cores can be used as a proxy for RWB activity in the Atlantic European region and associated extreme weather and climate anomalies.

Description: A 285‐cm core of bat guano was recovered from Măgurici Cave in north‐west Romania and analyzed for δ13C, δ15N and pollen. Guano deposition occurred from AD 881 until 1240 and from AD 1651 to 2013, allowing for the interpretation of summer variations in precipitation and temperature during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and the Little Ice Age (LIA). A 2‰ increase in δ13C, 1.5‰ decrease in δ15N, and the presence of Ulmus, Quercus and Carpinus betulus indicate a warm and dry MWP occurred in the region. The lack of deposition during the beginning of the LIA suggests a possible climate‐induced change in prey availability resulting in bats vacating the cave. Variation of δ13C values between −25 and −23‰ at AD 1650 (LIA) indicates similar drier conditions as at the end of MWP. However, a 2‰ decrease in δ13C values that occurred between AD 1790 and 1900 suggests climate was trending towards wetter conditions at the end of the LIA. From AD 1938 to 2013, δ13C values appear to be more influenced by temperature, indicating that this parameter had a more significant effect on carbon discrimination than water availability.

Description: In this study, the spatial and temporal variability of summer (June–July–August, JJA) streamflow over Romania, as recorded at 46 hydrological stations over the period 1935–2010 is analysed. An empirical orthogonal function analysis and a canonical correlation analysis (CCA) were used to characterize the spatial and temporal variability of summer streamflow and its relationship with large-scale atmospheric factors. The dominant summer mode captures in-phase variability of river flow anomalies over the entire country, while the second mode of variability is characterized by a northwest–southeast dipole, emphasizing the influence of topography over the streamflow variability. Based on a CCA analysis, more than 50% of the summer streamflow variability is shown to be influenced by cloud cover and summer temperatures, via the modulation of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. In general, positive (negative) streamflow anomalies, at country level, are associated with cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation, the advection of moist (warm and dry) air, enhanced (reduced) precipitation and positive (negative) cloud cover anomalies.

Description: The present study focuses on the analysis of dryness/wetness conditions in the Danube River catchment area from 1901 to 2013 based on reanalysis data. The spatio-temporal variability of dryness/wetness conditions is analyzed by means of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for an accumulation periods of 6 months. To characterize the spatial variability of SPI6 at monthly time scales an Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis was applied. The leading mode of SPI variability captures in-phase variability of SPI over the entire catchment area of Danube River. The leading mode of dryness/wetness variability was found to be strongly related to the different phases of the Arctic Oscillation. The second and third modes of variability show a more regional character of the dryness/wetness variability over the Danube River catchment area. Based on a composite map analysis, between the time series corresponding to the first three leading modes of dryness/wetness variability and the geopotential height at 850mb and precipitation totals, it is shown that dryness (wetness) conditions over the Danube catchment area are associated with an anticyclonic (cyclonic) circulation, transport of dry (humid) air towards the Danube catchment area and reduced (enhanced) number of rain days.