Description: It is a longstanding observation that the frequency of volcanism periodically changes at times of global climate change. The existence of causal links between volcanism and Earth's climate remains highly controversial, partly because most related studies only cover one glacial cycle. Longer records are available from marine sediment profiles in which the distribution of tephras records frequency changes of explosive arc volcanism with high resolution and time precision. Here we show that tephras of IODP Hole U1437B (northwest Pacific) record a cyclicity of explosive volcanism within the last 1.1 Myr. A spectral analysis of the dataset yields a statistically significant spectral peak at the similar to 100 kyr period, which dominates the global climate cycles since the Middle Pleistocene. A time-domain analysis of the entire eruption and delta O-18 record of benthic foraminifera as climate/sea level proxy shows that volcanism peaks after the glacial maximum and similar to 13 +/- 2 kyr before the delta O-18 minimum right at the glacial/interglacial transition. The correlation is especially good for the last 0.7 Myr. For the period 0.7-1.1 Ma, during the Middle Pleistocene Transition (MPT), the correlation is weaker, since the 100 kyr periodicity in the delta O-18 record diminishes, while the tephra record maintains its strong 100 kyr periodicity.

Description: EGU2010-13373 The frequency of volcanic activity varies on a wide rangeof spatial and temporal scales, from 〈1 yr. periodicities in single volcanic systems to periodicities of 106 yrs. in global volcanism. The causes of these periodicities are poorly understood although the long-term global variations are likely linked to plate-tectonic processes. Here we present evidence for temporal changes in eruption frequencies at an intermediate time scale (104 yrs.) using the Pleistocene to recent records of widespread tephras of sub-Plinian to Plinian, and occasionally co-ignimbrite origin, along the Pacific Ring of Fire, which accounts for about half of the global length of 44,000 km of active subduction. Eruptions at arc volcanoes tend to be highly explosive and the well-preserved tephra records from the ocean floor can be assumed to be representative of how eruption frequencies varied with time. Volcanic activity along the Pacific Ring of Fire evolved through alternating phases of high and low frequency; although there is modulation by local and regional geologic conditions, these variations have a statistically significant periodicity of 43 ka that overlaps with the temporal variation in the obliquity of the Earth’s rotation axis, an orbital parameter that also exerts a strong control on global climate changes. This may suggest that the frequency of volcanic activity is controlled by effects of global climate changes. However, the strongest physical effects of climate change occur at 100 ka periods which are not seen in the volcanic record. We therefore propose that the frequency of volcanic activity is directly influenced by minute changes in the tidal forces induced by the varying obliquity resulting in long-period gravitational disturbances acting on the upper mantle.

Description: Slow slip events (SSEs) at the northern Hikurangi subduction margin, New Zealand, are among the best-documented shallow SSEs on Earth. International Ocean Discovery Program Expeditions 372 and 375 were undertaken to investigate the processes and in situ conditions that underlie subduction zone SSEs at the northern Hikurangi Trough. We accomplished this goal by (1) coring and geophysical logging at four sites, including penetration of an active thrust fault (the Pāpaku fault) near the deformation front, the upper plate above the SSE source region, and the incoming sedimentary succession in the Hikurangi Trough and atop the Tūranganui Knoll seamount; and (2) installing borehole observatories in the Pāpaku fault and in the upper plate overlying the slow slip source region. Logging-while-drilling (LWD) data for this project were acquired as part of Expedition 372, and coring, wireline logging, and observatory installations were conducted during Expedition 375. Northern Hikurangi subduction margin SSEs recur every 1–2 y and thus provide an ideal opportunity to monitor deformation and associated changes in chemical and physical properties throughout the slow slip cycle. In situ measurements and sampling of material from the sedimentary section and oceanic basement of the subducting plate reveal the rock properties, composition, lithology, and structural character of material that is transported downdip into the SSE source region. A recent seafloor geodetic experiment raises the possibility that SSEs at northern Hikurangi may propagate to the trench, indicating that the shallow thrust fault (the Pāpaku fault) targeted during Expeditions 372 and 375 may also lie in the SSE rupture area and host a portion of the slip in these events. Hence, sampling and logging at this location provides insights into the composition, physical properties, and architecture of a shallow fault that may host slow slip. Expeditions 372 and 375 were designed to address three fundamental scientific objectives: Characterize the state and composition of the incoming plate and shallow fault near the trench, which comprise the protolith and initial conditions for fault zone rock at greater depth and which may itself host shallow slow slip; Characterize material properties, thermal regime, and stress conditions in the upper plate directly above the SSE source region; and Install observatories in the Pāpaku fault near the deformation front and in the upper plate above the SSE source to measure temporal variations in deformation, temperature, and fluid flow. The observatories will monitor volumetric strain (via pore pressure as a proxy) and the evolution of physical, hydrological, and chemical properties throughout the SSE cycle. Together, the coring, logging, and observatory data will test a suite of hypotheses about the fundamental mechanics and behavior of SSEs and their relationship to great earthquakes along the subduction interface.

Description: Plate-boundary fault rupture during the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman subduction earthquake extended closer to the trench than expected, increasing earthquake and tsunami size. International Ocean Discovery Program Expedition 362 sampled incoming sediments offshore northern Sumatra, revealing recent release of fresh water within the deep sediments. Thermal modeling links this freshening to amorphous silica dehydration driven by rapid burial-induced temperature increases in the past 9 million years. Complete dehydration of silicates is expected before plate subduction, contrasting with prevailing models for subduction seismogenesis calling for fluid production during subduction. Shallow slip offshore Sumatra appears driven by diagenetic strengthening of deeply buried fault-forming sediments, contrasting with weakening proposed for the shallow Tohoku-Oki 2011 rupture, but our results are applicable to other thickly sedimented subduction zones including those with limited earthquake records.

Description: Caldera-forming eruptions of silicic volcanic systems are among the most devastating events on Earth. By contrast, post-collapse volcanic activity initiating new caldera cycles is generally considered less hazardous. Formed after Santorini’s latest caldera-forming eruption of ~1600 bce , the Kameni Volcano in the southern Aegean Sea enables the eruptive evolution of a recharging multi-cyclic caldera to be reconstructed. Kameni’s eruptive record has been documented by onshore products and historical descriptions of mainly effusive eruptions dating back to 197 bce . Here we combine high-resolution seismic reflection data with cored lithologies from International Ocean Discovery Program Expedition 398 at four sites to determine the submarine architecture and volcanic history of intra-caldera deposits from Kameni. Our shore-crossing analysis reveals the deposits of a submarine explosive eruption that produced up to 3.1 km 3 of pumice and ash, which we relate to a historical eruption in 726 ce . The estimated volcanic explosivity index of magnitude 5 exceeds previously considered worst-case eruptive scenarios for Santorini. Our finding that the Santorini caldera is capable of producing large explosive eruptions at an early stage in the caldera cycle implies an elevated hazard potential for the eastern Mediterranean region, and potentially for other recharging silicic calderas.

Description: Large explosive tropical volcanic eruptions inject high amounts of gases into the stratosphere, where they disperse globally through the large-scale meridional circulation. There is now increasing observational evidence that volcanic halogens can reach the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. Here, we present the first study that combines measurement-based data of sulfur, chlorine and bromine releases from tropical volcanic eruptions with complex coupled chemistry climate model simulations taking radiative-dynamical-chemical feedbacks into account. Halogen model input parameters represent a size-time-region-wide average for the Central American eruptions over the last 200 ka ensuring a comprehensive perspective. The simulations reveal global, long-lasting impact on the ozone layer affecting atmospheric composition and circulation for a decade. Column ozone drops below 220 DU (ozone hole conditions) in the tropics, Arctic and Antarctica, increasing biologically active UV by 80 to 400%. Our model results could potentially be validated using high-resolution proxies from ice cores and pollen records.

Description: Perturbations in stratospheric aerosol due to explosive volcanic eruptions are a primary contributor to natural climate variability. Observations of stratospheric aerosol are available for the past decades, and information from ice cores has been used to derive estimates of stratospheric sulfur injections and aerosol optical depth over the Holocene (approximately 10,000 BP to present) and into the last glacial period, extending back to 60,000 BP. Tephra records of past volcanism, compared to ice cores, are less complete, but extend much further into the past. To support model studies of the potential impacts of explosive volcanism on climate variability over across timescales, we present here an ensemble reconstruction of volcanic stratospheric sulfur injection (VSSI) over the last 130,000 years that is based primarily on terrestrial and marine tephra records. VSSI values are computed as a simple function of eruption magnitude, based on VSSI estimates from ice cores and satellite observations for identified eruptions. To correct for the incompleteness of the tephra record we include stochastically generated synthetic eruptions, assuming a constant background eruption frequency from the ice core Holocene record. While the reconstruction often differs from ice core estimates for specific eruptions due to uncertainties in the data used and reconstruction method, it shows good agreement with an ice core based VSSI reconstruction in terms of millennial-scale cumulative VSSI variations over the Holocene. The PalVol reconstruction provides a new basis to test the contributions of forced vs. unforced natural variability to the spectrum of climate, and the mechanisms leading to abrupt transitions in the palaeoclimate record with low-to-high complexity climate models. The PalVol volcanic forcing reconstruction is available at https://doi.org/10.26050/WDCC/PalVolv1 (Toohey, Schindlbeck-Belo, 2023).

Description: Large explosive volcanic eruptions from island arcs pour pyroclastic currents into marine basins, impacting ecosystems and generating tsunamis that threaten coastal communities and infrastructures. Risk assessments require robust records of such highly hazardous events, which is challenging as most of the products lie buried under the sea. Here we report the discovery by IODP Expedition 398 of a giant rhyolitic pumice deposit emplaced 520 ± 10 ky ago at water depths of 200 to 1000 m during a high-intensity, shallow submarine eruption of ancestral Santorini Volcano. Pyroclastic currents discharged into the sea transformed into turbidity currents and slurries, forming a 〉89 ± 8 km 3 volcaniclastic megaturbidite up to 150 m thick in the surrounding marine basins, while breaching of the sea surface by the eruption column laid down veneers of ignimbrite on three islands. The eruption is one of the largest recorded on the South Aegean Volcanic Arc, and highlights the hazards from submarine explosive eruptions.

Description: An international, multidisciplinary research group is proposing the “NICA-BRIDGE” drilling project, within the framework of the International Continental Scientific Drilling Program (ICDP). The project goal is to conduct scientific drilling in Lake Nicaragua and Lake Managua (Nicaragua, Central America) to obtain long lacustrine sediment records to (a) extend the neotropical paleoclimate record back to the Pliocene, making it one of the longest continental tropical climate archives in the world, and to (b) provide geological data on the long-term complex interplay among tectonics, volcanism, sea-level dynamics, climate change, and biosphere. The lakes are the two largest in Central America, and they are located in a trench-parallel half graben that hosts the volcanic front, which developed during or prior to the Pliocene, as a consequence of subduction-related tectonic activity. The lakes are uniquely suited for multidisciplinary scientific investigation as their long, con- tinuous sediment records (several Myr) will facilitate the study of (1) terrestrial and marine basin development at the southern Central American margin, (2) alternating lacustrine and marine environments in response to tec- tonic and climatic changes, (3) the longest record of tropical climate proxies, (4) the evolution of (and transition between) the Miocene to Pliocene/Pleistocene and Pleistocene to present volcanic arcs, which were separated by slab rollback, (5) the significance of the lakes as hot spots for endemism, and (6) the Great American Biotic Interchange at this strategic location, i.e., the N–S and reverse migration of fauna after the land bridge between the Americas was established. The planned ICDP project offers an opportunity to explore these topics through continent-based seismolog- ical, volcanological, paleoclimatological, paleoecological, and paleoenvironmental studies, combined with an International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) drill project to explore its oceanic continuation. In preparation of this drilling project, an ICDP workshop was held in Montelimar, Nicaragua, on 2–5 March 2020 to develop drilling strategies and refine scientific questions, objectives, and hypotheses. The workshop was organized and hosted by the principal investigators and the Instituto Nicaragüense de Estudios Territoriales (INETER), with funding from the ICDP. Forty-five researchers from 12 countries participated in the workshop, including representatives from ICDP. During the workshop, previous research data on the study lakes, including new recent surveys, were reviewed, and a three-phase strategy for the proposed research was developed. The aim of Phase 0 is to complement the pre-site surveys where we identified the need for further data. In Phase I, with ICDP support, we will obtain sediment cores ∼ 100 m long, which will allow us to investigate many of the scientific questions. Based on the data from those drill cores, coring locations will be identified for a future Phase II, which we envisage as a combined ICDP/IODP project to collect deep drill cores in the lakes and the offshore Sandino Basin in order to extend Phase I results to much deeper time. The Sandino Basin is the oceanic continuation of the depression in which the studied lakes are located, and complementary marine drilling will improve the understanding of the evolution of this complex margin.

Description: As Earth's atmospheric temperatures and human populations increase, more people are becoming vulnerable to natural and human-induced disasters. This is particularly true in Central America, where the growing human population is experiencing climate extremes (droughts and floods), and the region is susceptible to geological hazards, such as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions, and environmental deterioration in many forms (soil erosion, lake eutrophication, heavy metal contamination, etc.). Instrumental and historical data from the region are insufficient to understand and document past hazards, a necessary first step for mitigating future risks. Long, continuous, well-resolved geological records can, however, provide a window into past climate and environmental changes that can be used to better predict future conditions in the region. The Lake Izabal Basin (LIB), in eastern Guatemala, contains the longest known continental records of tectonics, climate, and environmental change in the northern Neotropics. The basin is a pull-apart depression that developed along the North American and Caribbean plate boundary ∼ 12 Myr ago and contains 〉 4 km of sediment. The sedimentological archive in the LIB records the interplay among several Earth System processes. Consequently, exploration of sediments in the basin can provide key information concerning: (1) tectonic deformation and earthquake history along the plate boundary; (2) the timing and causes of volcanism from the Central American Volcanic Arc; and (3) hydroclimatic, ecologic, and geomicrobiological responses to different climate and environmental states. To evaluate the LIB as a potential site for scientific drilling, 65 scientists from 13 countries and 33 institutions met in Antigua, Guatemala, in August 2022 under the auspices of the International Continental Scientific Drilling Program (ICDP) and the US National Science Foundation (NSF). Several working groups developed scientific questions and overarching hypotheses that could be addressed by drilling the LIB and identified optimal coring sites and instrumentation needed to achieve the project goals. The group also discussed logistical challenges and outreach opportunities. The project is not only an outstanding opportunity to improve our scientific understanding of seismotectonic, volcanic, paleoclimatic, paleoecologic, and paleobiologic processes that operate in the tropics of Central America, but it is also an opportunity to improve understanding of multiple geological hazards and communicate that knowledge to help increase the resilience of at-risk Central American communities.