Description: New observations from the North Sea, a NW European shelf sea, show that between 2001 and 2005 the CO2 partial pressure (pCO2) in surface waters rose by 22 μatm, thus faster than atmospheric pCO2, which in the same period rose approximately 11 μatm. The surprisingly rapid decline in air‐sea partial pressure difference (ΔpCO2) is primarily a response to an elevated water column inventory of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), which, in turn, reflects mostly anthropogenic CO2 input rather than natural interannual variability. The resulting decline in the buffering capacity of the inorganic carbonate system (increasing Revelle factor) sets up a theoretically predicted feedback loop whereby the invasion of anthropogenic CO2 reduces the ocean's ability to uptake additional CO2. Model simulations for the North Atlantic Ocean and thermodynamic principles reveal that this feedback should be stronger, at present, in colder midlatitude and subpolar waters because of the lower present‐day buffer capacity and elevated DIC levels driven either by northward advected surface water and/or excess local air‐sea CO2 uptake. This buffer capacity feedback mechanism helps to explain at least part of the observed trend of decreasing air‐sea ΔpCO2 over time as reported in several other recent North Atlantic studies.

Description: In this paper, we review the state of the art and major challenges in current efforts to incorporate biogeochemical functional groups into models that can be applied on basin-wide and global scales, with an emphasis on models that might ultimately be used to predict how biogeochemical cycles in the ocean will respond to global warming. We define the term “biogeochemical functional group” to refer to groups of organisms that mediate specific chemical reactions in the ocean. Thus, according to this definition, “functional groups” have no phylogenetic meaning—these are composed of many different species with common biogeochemical functions. Substantial progress has been made in the last decade toward quantifying the rates of these various functions and understanding the factors that control them. For some of these groups, we have developed fairly sophisticated models that incorporate this understanding, e.g. for diazotrophs (e.g. Trichodesmium), silica producers (diatoms) and calcifiers (e.g. coccolithophorids and specifically Emiliania huxleyi). However, current representations of nitrogen fixation and calcification are incomplete, i.e., based primarily upon models of Trichodesmium and E. huxleyi, respectively, and many important functional groups have not yet been considered in open-ocean biogeochemical models. Progress has been made over the last decade in efforts to simulate dimethylsulfide (DMS) production and cycling (i.e., by dinoflagellates and prymnesiophytes) and denitrification, but these efforts are still in their infancy, and many significant problems remain. One obvious gap is that virtually all functional group modeling efforts have focused on autotrophic microbes, while higher trophic levels have been completely ignored. It appears that in some cases (e.g., calcification), incorporating higher trophic levels may be essential not only for representing a particular biogeochemical reaction, but also for modeling export. Another serious problem is our tendency to model the organisms for which we have the most validation data (e.g., E. huxleyi and Trichodesmium) even when they may represent only a fraction of the biogeochemical functional group we are trying to represent. When we step back and look at the paleo-oceanographic record, it suggests that oxygen concentrations have played a central role in the evolution and emergence of many of the key functional groups that influence biogeochemical cycles in the present-day ocean. However, more subtle effects are likely to be important over the next century like changes in silicate supply or turbulence that can influence the relative success of diatoms versus dinoflagellates, coccolithophorids and diazotrophs. In general, inferences drawn from the paleo-oceanographic record and theoretical work suggest that global warming will tend to favor the latter because it will give rise to increased stratification. However, decreases in pH and Fe supply could adversely impact coccolithophorids and diazotrophs in the future. It may be necessary to include explicit dynamic representations of nitrogen fixation, denitrification, silicification and calcification in our models if our goal is predicting the oceanic carbon cycle in the future, because these processes appear to play a very significant role in the carbon cycle of the present-day ocean and they are sensitive to climate change. Observations and models suggest that it may also be necessary to include the DMS cycle to predict future climate, though the effects are still highly uncertain. We have learned a tremendous amount about the distributions and biogeochemical impact of bacteria in the ocean in recent years, yet this improved understanding has not yet been incorporated into many of our models. All of these considerations lead us toward the development of increasingly complex models. However, recent quantitative model intercomparison studies suggest that continuing to add complexity and more functional groups to our ecosystem models may lead to decreases in predictive ability if the models are not properly constrained with available data. We also caution that capturing the present-day variability tells us little about how well a particular model can predict the future. If our goal is to develop models that can be used to predict how the oceans will respond to global warming, then we need to make more rigorous assessments of predictive skill using the available data.

Description: We assess the Southern Ocean CO2 uptake (1985–2018) using data sets gathered in the REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes Project Phase 2. The Southern Ocean acted as a sink for CO2 with close agreement between simulation results from global ocean biogeochemistry models (GOBMs, 0.75 ± 0.28 PgC yr−1) and pCO2-observation-based products (0.73 ± 0.07 PgC yr−1). This sink is only half that reported by RECCAP1 for the same region and timeframe. The present-day net uptake is to first order a response to rising atmospheric CO2, driving large amounts of anthropogenic CO2 (Cant) into the ocean, thereby overcompensating the loss of natural CO2 to the atmosphere. An apparent knowledge gap is the increase of the sink since 2000, with pCO2-products suggesting a growth that is more than twice as strong and uncertain as that of GOBMs (0.26 ± 0.06 and 0.11 ± 0.03 Pg C yr−1 decade−1, respectively). This is despite nearly identical pCO2 trends in GOBMs and pCO2-products when both products are compared only at the locations where pCO2 was measured. Seasonal analyses revealed agreement in driving processes in winter with uncertainty in the magnitude of outgassing, whereas discrepancies are more fundamental in summer, when GOBMs exhibit difficulties in simulating the effects of the non-thermal processes of biology and mixing/circulation. Ocean interior accumulation of Cant points to an underestimate of Cant uptake and storage in GOBMs. Future work needs to link surface fluxes and interior ocean transport, build long overdue systematic observation networks and push toward better process understanding of drivers of the carbon cycle. Key Points: - Ocean models and machine learning estimates agree on the mean Southern Ocean CO2 sink, but the trend since 2000 differs by a factor of two - REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes Project Phase 2 estimates a 50% smaller Southern Ocean CO2 sink for the same region and timeframe as RECCAP1 - Large model spread in summer and winter indicates that sustained efforts are required to understand driving processes in all seasons

Description: This contribution to the RECCAP2 (REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes) assessment analyzes the processes that determine the global ocean carbon sink, and its trends and variability over the period 1985-2018, using a combination of models and observation-based products. The mean sea-air CO2 flux from 1985 to 2018 is -1.6 +/- 0.2 PgC yr(-1) based on an ensemble of reconstructions of the history of sea surface pCO(2) (pCO(2) products). Models indicate that the dominant component of this flux is the net oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2, which is estimated at -2.1 +/- 0.3 PgC yr(-1) by an ensemble of ocean biogeochemical models, and -2.4 +/- 0.1 PgC yr(-1) by two ocean circulation inverse models. The ocean also degasses about 0.65 +/- 0.3 PgC yr(-1) of terrestrially derived CO2, but this process is not fully resolved by any of the models used here. From 2001 to 2018, the pCO2 products reconstruct a trend in the ocean carbon sink of -0.61 +/- 0.12 PgC yr(-1) decade(-1), while biogeochemical models and inverse models diagnose an anthropogenic CO2-driven trend of -0.34 +/- 0.06 and -0.41 +/- 0.03 PgC yr(-1) decade(-1), respectively. This implies a climate-forced acceleration of the ocean carbon sink in recent decades, but there are still large uncertainties on the magnitude and cause of this trend. The interannual to decadal variability of the global carbon sink is mainly driven by climate variability, with the climate-driven variability exceeding the CO2-forced variability by 2-3 times. These results suggest that anthropogenic CO2 dominates the ocean CO2 sink, while climate-driven variability is potentially large but highly uncertain and not consistently captured across different methods.

Description: © The Authors, 2019. This is the author's version of the work and is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 4.0 International License. The definitive version was published in Marine Pollution Bulletin, 140, (2019):364-373, doi:10.1016/j.marpolbul.2018.12.047.

Description: Estuaries provide significant cultural ecosystem services, including recreation and tourism. Disruptions of estuarine biogeochemical processes resulting from environmental degradation could interrupt the flow of these services, reducing benefits and diminishing the welfare of local communities. This study focused on recreational shellfishing in Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts (41.55°N, 70.80°W). Relationships among measures of recreational shellfishing, estuarine water quality, and local socioeconomic conditions were tested to understand how the benefits of cultural ecosystem services to local communities might be affected by declining water quality. Transferring estimated economic benefits from an analysis of nearby municipalities, the study finds that increases in Chl a during the 24-year period were associated with losses in recreational shellfishing benefits of $0.08–0.67 million per decade. The approach presented here suggests a more broadly applicable framework for assessing the impacts of changes in coastal ecosystem water quality on the welfare of local communities.

Description: We would like to thank the Buzzards Bay Coalition, the Buzzards Bay National Estuary Program, and the Massachusetts Department of Marine Fisheries for providing data for this analysis. We thank the 1074 citizen volunteers of the Buzzards Bay Coalition who collected the water quality samples and Mark Rasmussen for his leadership in sustaining the Baywatchers Program. Support for this analysis was provided by the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation (Grant no. 14-106159-000-CFP), MIT Sea Grant (subaward number 5710004045), the Johnson Endowment of the WHOI Marine Policy Center, and SCD acknowledges support from the University of Virginia.

Description: © The Author(s), 2013. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Ecological Modelling 261-262 (2013): 43–57, doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.04.006.

Description: Dynamic Green Ocean Models (DGOMs) include different sets of Plankton Functional Types (PFTs) and equations, thus different interactions and food webs. Using four DGOMs (CCSM-BEC, PISCES, NEMURO and PlankTOM5) we explore how predator–prey interactions influence food web dynamics. Using each model's equations and biomass output, interaction strengths (direct and specific) were calculated and the role of zooplankton in modeled food webs examined. In CCSM-BEC the single size-class adaptive zooplankton preys on different phytoplankton groups according to prey availability and food preferences, resulting in a strong top-down control. In PISCES the micro- and meso-zooplankton groups compete for food resources, grazing phytoplankton depending on their availability in a mixture of bottom-up and top-down control. In NEMURO macrozooplankton controls the biomass of other zooplankton PFTs and defines the structure of the food web with a strong top-down control within the zooplankton. In PlankTOM5, competition and predation between micro- and meso-zooplankton along with strong preferences for nanophytoplankton and diatoms, respectively, leads to their mutual exclusion with a mixture of bottom-up and top-down control of the plankton community composition. In each model, the grazing pressure of the zooplankton PFTs and the way it is exerted on their preys may result in the food web dynamics and structure of the model to diverge from the one that was intended when designing the model. Our approach shows that the food web dynamics, in particular the strength of the predator–prey interactions, are driven by the choice of parameters and more specifically the food preferences. Consequently, our findings stress the importance of equation and parameter choice as they define interactions between PFTs and overall food web dynamics (competition, bottom-up or top-down effects). Also, the differences in the simulated food-webs between different models highlight the gap of knowledge for zooplankton rates and predator–prey interactions. In particular, concerted effort is needed to identify the key growth and loss parameters and interactions and quantify them with targeted laboratory experiments in order to bring our understanding of zooplankton at a similar level to phytoplankton.

Description: This work was supported with funding from Palmer LTER (NSF OPP-0823101) and C-MORE (NSF EF-0424599).

Description: © The Author(s), 2013. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Remote Sensing of Environment 135 (2013): 77-91, doi:10.1016/j.rse.2013.03.025.

Description: Photosynthetic production of organic matter by microscopic oceanic phytoplankton fuels ocean ecosystems and contributes roughly half of the Earth's net primary production. For 13 years, the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) mission provided the first consistent, synoptic observations of global ocean ecosystems. Changes in the surface chlorophyll concentration, the primary biological property retrieved from SeaWiFS, have traditionally been used as a metric for phytoplankton abundance and its distribution largely reflects patterns in vertical nutrient transport. On regional to global scales, chlorophyll concentrations covary with sea surface temperature (SST) because SST changes reflect light and nutrient conditions. However, the ocean may be too complex to be well characterized using a single index such as the chlorophyll concentration. A semi-analytical bio-optical algorithm is used to help interpret regional to global SeaWiFS chlorophyll observations from using three independent, well-validated ocean color data products; the chlorophyll a concentration, absorption by CDM and particulate backscattering. First, we show that observed long-term, global-scale trends in standard chlorophyll retrievals are likely compromised by coincident changes in CDM. Second, we partition the chlorophyll signal into a component due to phytoplankton biomass changes and a component caused by physiological adjustments in intracellular chlorophyll concentrations to changes in mixed layer light levels. We show that biomass changes dominate chlorophyll signals for the high latitude seas and where persistent vertical upwelling is known to occur, while physiological processes dominate chlorophyll variability over much of the tropical and subtropical oceans. The SeaWiFS data set demonstrates complexity in the interpretation of changes in regional to global phytoplankton distributions and illustrates limitations for the assessment of phytoplankton dynamics using chlorophyll retrievals alone.

Description: The authors would like to acknowledge the NASA Ocean Biology and Biogeochemistry program for its long-term support of satellite ocean color research and the Orbital Sciences Corporation and GeoEye who were responsible for the launch, satellite integration and on-orbit management the SeaWiFS mission.

Description: © The Author(s), 2019. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Luis, K. M. A., Rheuban, J. E., Kavanaugh, M. T., Glover, D. M., Wei, J., Lee, Z., & Doney, S. C. Capturing coastal water clarity variability with Landsat 8. Marine Pollution Bulletin, 145, (2019): 96-104, doi: 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2019.04.078.

Description: Coastal water clarity varies at high temporal and spatial scales due to weather, climate, and human activity along coastlines. Systematic observations are crucial to assessing the impact of water clarity change on aquatic habitats. In this study, Secchi disk depths (ZSD) from Boston Harbor, Buzzards Bay, Cape Cod Bay, and Narragansett Bay water quality monitoring organizations were compiled to validate ZSD derived from Landsat 8 (L8) imagery, and to generate high spatial resolution ZSD maps. From 58 L8 images, acceptable agreement was found between in situ and L8 ZSD in Buzzards Bay (N = 42, RMSE = 0.96 m, MAPD = 28%), Cape Cod Bay (N = 11, RMSE = 0.62 m, MAPD = 10%), and Narragansett Bay (N = 8, RMSE = 0.59 m, MAPD = 26%). This work demonstrates the value of merging in situ ZSD with high spatial resolution remote sensing estimates for improved coastal water quality monitoring.

Description: This work was supported by the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation (grant 14-106159-000-CFP) and by the National Science Foundation grant DGE 1249946, Integrative Graduate Education and Research Traineeship (IGERT): Coasts and Communities – Natural and Human Systems in Urbanizing Environments. Lastly, we are indebted to the Massachusetts Water Resources Authority, Buzzards Bay Coalition, Provincetown Center for Coastal Studies, Narragansett Bay Commission, and the numerous citizen scientists responsible for collecting the in situ measurements used in this study. Comments and suggestions from our anonymous reviewer were greatly appreciated.