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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Simulated Tropical Precipitation Assessed across Three Major Phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)
    American Meteorological Society ; 2020
    In:  Monthly Weather Review Vol. 148, No. 9 ( 2020-09-01), p. 3653-3680
    Details
    In: Monthly Weather Review, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 148, No. 9 ( 2020-09-01), p. 3653-3680
    Abstract: The representation of tropical precipitation is evaluated across three generations of models participating in phases 3, 5, and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Compared to state-of-the-art observations, improvements in tropical precipitation in the CMIP6 models are identified for some metrics, but we find no general improvement in tropical precipitation on different temporal and spatial scales. Our results indicate overall little changes across the CMIP phases for the summer monsoons, the double-ITCZ bias, and the diurnal cycle of tropical precipitation. We find a reduced amount of drizzle events in CMIP6, but tropical precipitation occurs still too frequently. Continuous improvements across the CMIP phases are identified for the number of consecutive dry days, for the representation of modes of variability, namely, the Madden–Julian oscillation and El Niño–Southern Oscillation, and for the trends in dry months in the twentieth century. The observed positive trend in extreme wet months is, however, not captured by any of the CMIP phases, which simulate negative trends for extremely wet months in the twentieth century. The regional biases are larger than a climate change signal one hopes to use the models to identify. Given the pace of climate change as compared to the pace of model improvements to simulate tropical precipitation, we question the past strategy of the development of the present class of global climate models as the mainstay of the scientific response to climate change. We suggest the exploration of alternative approaches such as high-resolution storm-resolving models that can offer better prospects to inform us about how tropical precipitation might change with anthropogenic warming.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0027-0644 , 1520-0493
    URL: Article
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-19-0404.1
    DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-19-0404.s1
    RVK:
    RA 1000
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2020
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2033056-X
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 202616-8
    SSG: 14
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  • 2
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Disentangling Internal and External Contributions to Atlantic Multidecadal Variability Over the Past Millennium
    American Geophysical Union (AGU) ; 2021
    In:  Geophysical Research Letters Vol. 48, No. 23 ( 2021-12-16)
    Details
    In: Geophysical Research Letters, American Geophysical Union (AGU), Vol. 48, No. 23 ( 2021-12-16)
    Abstract: The internal and external contributions to Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) over the past millennium can be separated by a pattern‐based calculation of AMV The internal AMV has a robust tripole pattern and dominates the relationship with meridional overturning circulation The North Atlantic response to post‐eruption global cooling has a damped behavior and is identified as a more uniform spatial pattern
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0094-8276 , 1944-8007
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1029/2021GL095990
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021599-X
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 7403-2
    SSG: 16,13
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  • 3
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    The impact of volcanic eruptions of different magnitude on stratospheric water vapor in the tropics
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2021
    In:  Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Vol. 21, No. 8 ( 2021-05-01), p. 6565-6591
    Details
    In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 21, No. 8 ( 2021-05-01), p. 6565-6591
    Abstract: Abstract. Increasing the temperature of the tropical cold-point region through heating by volcanic aerosols results in increases in the entry value of stratospheric water vapor (SWV) and subsequent changes in the atmospheric energy budget. We analyze tropical volcanic eruptions of different strengths with sulfur (S) injections ranging from 2.5 Tg S up to 40 Tg S using EVAens, the 100-member ensemble of the Max Planck Institute – Earth System Model in its low-resolution configuration (MPI-ESM-LR) with artificial volcanic forcing generated by the Easy Volcanic Aerosol (EVA) tool. Significant increases in SWV are found for the mean over all ensemble members from 2.5 Tg S onward ranging between [5, 160] %. However, for single ensemble members, the standard deviation between the control run members (0 Tg S) is larger than SWV increase of single ensemble members for eruption strengths up to 20 Tg S. A historical simulation using observation-based forcing files of the Mt. Pinatubo eruption, which was estimated to have emitted (7.5±2.5) Tg S, returns SWV increases slightly higher than the 10 Tg S EVAens simulations due to differences in the aerosol profile shape. An additional amplification of the tape recorder signal is also apparent, which is not present in the 10 Tg S run. These differences underline that it is not only the eruption volume but also the aerosol layer shape and location with respect to the cold point that have to be considered for post-eruption SWV increases. The additional tropical clear-sky SWV forcing for the different eruption strengths amounts to [0.02, 0.65] W m−2, ranging between [2.5, 4] % of the aerosol radiative forcing in the 10 Tg S scenario. The monthly cold-point temperature increases leading to the SWV increase are not linear with respect to aerosol optical depth (AOD) nor is the corresponding SWV forcing, among others, due to hysteresis effects, seasonal dependencies, aerosol profile heights and feedbacks. However, knowledge of the cold-point temperature increase allows for an estimation of SWV increases of 12 % per Kelvin increase in mean cold-point temperature. For yearly averages, power functions are fitted to the cold-point warming and SWV forcing with increasing AOD.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1680-7324
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/acp-21-6565-2021
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2021
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  • 4
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Changes in stratospheric aerosol extinction coefficient after the 2018 Ambae eruption as seen by OMPS-LP and MAECHAM5-HAM
    Copernicus GmbH ; 2021
    In:  Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Vol. 21, No. 19 ( 2021-10-07), p. 14871-14891
    Details
    In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Copernicus GmbH, Vol. 21, No. 19 ( 2021-10-07), p. 14871-14891
    Abstract: Abstract. Stratospheric aerosols are an important component of the climate system. They not only change the radiative budget of the Earth but also play an essential role in ozone depletion. These impacts are particularly noticeable after volcanic eruptions when SO2 injected with the eruption reaches the stratosphere, oxidizes, and forms stratospheric aerosol. There have been several studies in which a volcanic eruption plume and the associated radiative forcing were analyzed using climate models and/or data from satellite measurements. However, few have compared vertically and temporally resolved volcanic plumes using both measured and modeled data. In this paper, we compared changes in the stratospheric aerosol loading after the 2018 Ambae eruption observed by satellite remote sensing measurements and simulated by a global aerosol model. We use vertical profiles of the aerosol extinction coefficient at 869 nm retrieved at the Institute of Environmental Physics (IUP) in Bremen from OMPS-LP (Ozone Mapping and Profiling Suite – Limb Profiler) observations. Here, we present the retrieval algorithm and a comparison of the obtained profiles with those from SAGE III/ISS (Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment III on board the International Space Station). The observed differences are within 25 % for most latitude bins, which indicates a reasonable quality of the retrieved limb aerosol extinction product. The volcanic plume evolution is investigated using both monthly mean aerosol extinction coefficients and 10 d averaged data. The measurement results were compared with the model output from MAECHAM5-HAM (ECHAM for short). In order to simulate the eruption accurately, we use SO2 injection estimates from OMPS and OMI (Ozone Monitoring Instrument) for the first phase of eruption and the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) for the second phase. Generally, the agreement between the vertical and geographical distribution of the aerosol extinction coefficient from OMPS-LP and ECHAM is quite remarkable, in particular, for the second phase. We attribute the good consistency between the model and the measurements to the precise estimation of injected SO2 mass and height, as well as to the nudging to ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis data. Additionally, we compared the radiative forcing (RF) caused by the increase in the aerosol loading in the stratosphere after the eruption. After accounting for the uncertainties from different RF calculation methods, the RFs from ECHAM and OMPS-LP agree quite well. We estimate the tropical (20∘ N to 20∘ S) RF from the second Ambae eruption to be about −0.13 W m−2.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1680-7324
    URL: Article
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.5194/acp-21-14871-2021
    DOI: 10.5194/acp-21-14871-2021-supplement
    Language: English
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH
    Publication Date: 2021
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2092549-9
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2069847-1
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  • 5
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    The Arctic Polar Vortex Response to Volcanic Forcing of Different Strengths
    American Geophysical Union (AGU) ; 2021
    In:  Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Vol. 126, No. 11 ( 2021-06-16)
    Details
    In: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, American Geophysical Union (AGU), Vol. 126, No. 11 ( 2021-06-16)
    Abstract: Model simulations suggest a threshold below which stratospheric sulfur injections from volcanoes do not affect the Arctic polar vortex Statistically significant winter warming in Northern Eurasia is simulated for large eruptions
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 2169-897X , 2169-8996
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1029/2020JD034450
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2021
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    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2016800-7
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2969341-X
    SSG: 16,13
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  • 6
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Volcanic effects on climate: recent advances and future avenues
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC ; 2022
    In:  Bulletin of Volcanology Vol. 84, No. 5 ( 2022-05)
    Details
    In: Bulletin of Volcanology, Springer Science and Business Media LLC, Vol. 84, No. 5 ( 2022-05)
    Abstract: Volcanic eruptions have long been studied for their wide range of climatic effects. Although global-scale climatic impacts following the formation of stratospheric sulfate aerosol are well understood, many aspects of the evolution of the early volcanic aerosol cloud and regional impacts are uncertain. In the last twenty years, several advances have been made, mainly due to improved satellite measurements and observations enabling the effects of small-magnitude eruptions to be quantified, new proxy reconstructions used to investigate the impact of past eruptions, and state-of-the-art aerosol-climate modelling that has led to new insights on how volcanic eruptions affect the climate. Looking to the future, knowledge gaps include the role of co-emissions in volcanic plumes, the impact of eruptions on tropical hydroclimate and Northern Hemisphere winter climate, and the role of eruptions in long-term climate change. Future model development, dedicated model intercomparison projects, interdisciplinary collaborations, and the application of advanced statistical techniques will facilitate more complex and detailed studies. Ensuring that the next large-magnitude explosive eruption is well observed will be critical in providing invaluable observations that will bridge remaining gaps in our understanding.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1432-0819
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1007/s00445-022-01559-3
    Language: English
    Publisher: Springer Science and Business Media LLC
    Publication Date: 2022
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  • 7
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    Online Resource
    The Research Unit VolImpact: Revisiting the volcanic impact on atmosphere and climate – preparations for the next big volcanic eruption
    Schweizerbart ; 2020
    In:  Meteorologische Zeitschrift Vol. 29, No. 1 ( 2020-04-07), p. 3-18
    Details
    In: Meteorologische Zeitschrift, Schweizerbart, Vol. 29, No. 1 ( 2020-04-07), p. 3-18
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0941-2948
    Uniform Title: The Research Unit VolImpact: Revisiting the volcanic impact on atmosphere and climate – preparations for the next big volcanic eruption
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1127/metz/2019/0999
    RVK:
    UA 5450
    Language: English , English
    Publisher: Schweizerbart
    Publication Date: 2020
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    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2045168-4
    SSG: 14
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  • 8
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    The Role of Small to Moderate Volcanic Eruptions in the Early 19th Century Climate
    American Geophysical Union (AGU) ; 2023
    In:  Geophysical Research Letters Vol. 50, No. 22 ( 2023-11-28)
    Details
    In: Geophysical Research Letters, American Geophysical Union (AGU), Vol. 50, No. 22 ( 2023-11-28)
    Abstract: A new ice‐core based reconstruction of volcanic sulfate in the atmosphere (1733–1895) includes small‐to‐moderate eruptions Small‐to‐moderate eruptions can induce significant surface cooling and help explain the long‐lasting cooling in the early 19th century Regional cooling from small‐to‐moderate eruptions may be influenced by the circulation changes from the 1815 Tambora for over 10 years
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0094-8276 , 1944-8007
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1029/2023GL105307
    Language: English
    Publisher: American Geophysical Union (AGU)
    Publication Date: 2023
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021599-X
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 7403-2
    SSG: 16,13
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  • 9
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    Linearity of the Climate Response to Increasingly Strong Tropical Volcanic Eruptions in a Large Ensemble Framework
    American Meteorological Society ; 2024
    In:  Journal of Climate Vol. 37, No. 8 ( 2024-04-15), p. 2455-2470
    Details
    In: Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, Vol. 37, No. 8 ( 2024-04-15), p. 2455-2470
    Abstract: Large explosive volcanic eruptions cause short-term climatic impacts on both regional and global scales. Their impact on tropical climate variability, in particular El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is still uncertain, as is their combined and separate effect on tropical and global precipitation. Here, we investigate the relationship between large-scale temperature and precipitation and tropical volcanic eruption strength, using 100-member MPI-ESM ensembles for idealized equatorial symmetric Northern Hemisphere summer eruptions of different sulfur emission strengths. Our results show that for idealized tropical eruptions, global and hemispheric mean near-surface temperature and precipitation anomalies are negative and linearly scalable for sulfur emissions between 10 and 40 Tg S. We identify 20 Tg S emission as a threshold where the global ensemble-mean near-surface temperature and precipitation signals exceed the range of internal variability, even though some ensemble members emerge from variability for lower eruption strengths. Seasonal and ensemble mean patterns of near-surface temperature and precipitation anomalies are highly correlated across eruption strengths, in particular for larger emission strengths in the tropics, and strongly modulated by ENSO. There is a tendency to shift toward a warm ENSO phase for the first postvolcanic year as the emission strength increases. Volcanic cooling emerges on a hemisphere-wide scale, while the precipitation response is more localized, and emergence is mainly confined to the tropics and subtropics. Significance Statement The purpose of this study is to investigate at which strength the climate responses of volcanic forcing can be distinguished from the internal climate variability and whether the responses will linearly increase as the emission strengths become stronger. We ran 100-member MPI-ESM ensembles of idealized equatorial volcanic eruptions of different sulfur emission strengths and find that seasonal and ensemble mean patterns of near-surface temperature and precipitation anomalies are distinguishable and linearly scalable for sulfur emissions from 10 to 40 Tg S if their forcing patterns are similar. The identification of volcanic fingerprints is important for seasonal to decadal forecasts in the case of potential future eruptions and could help to prepare society for the regional climatic consequences of such an event.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 0894-8755 , 1520-0442
    URL: Article
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0408.1
    DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0408.s1
    RVK:
    UA 4548
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Publication Date: 2024
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 246750-1
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2021723-7
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  • 10
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    Sensitivity of regional monsoons to idealised equatorial volcanic eruption of different sulfur emission strengths
    IOP Publishing ; 2022
    In:  Environmental Research Letters Vol. 17, No. 5 ( 2022-05-01), p. 054001-
    Details
    In: Environmental Research Letters, IOP Publishing, Vol. 17, No. 5 ( 2022-05-01), p. 054001-
    Abstract: The impact of volcanic forcing on tropical precipitation is investigated in a new set of sensitivity experiments within the Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble framework. Five ensembles are created, each containing 100 realizations for an idealized ‘Pinatubo-like’ equatorial volcanic eruption with emissions covering a range of 2.5-40 Tg sulfur (S). The ensembles provide an excellent database to disentangle the influence of volcanic forcing on monsoons and tropical hydroclimate over the wide spectrum of the climate’s internal variability. Monsoons are generally weaker for two years after volcanic eruption and their weakening is a function of emissions. However, only a stronger than Pinatubo-like eruption ( ⩾ 10 Tg S) leads to significant and substantial monsoon changes, and some regions (such as North and South Africa, South America and South Asia) are much more sensitive to this kind of forcing than the others. The decreased monsoon precipitation is strongly tied to the weakening of the regional tropical overturning. The reduced atmospheric net energy input and increased gross moist stability at the Hadley circulation updraft due to the equatorial volcanic eruption, require a slowdown of the circulation as a consequence of less moist static energy exported away from the intertropical convergence zone.
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    ISSN: 1748-9326
    URL: Article
    DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ac62af
    Language: Unknown
    Publisher: IOP Publishing
    Publication Date: 2022
    detail.hit.zdb_id: 2255379-4
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