Description: A new Earth system model, the Flexible Ocean and Climate Infrastructure (FOCI), is introduced. A first version of FOCI consists of a global high-top atmosphere (ECHAM6.3) and an ocean model (NEMO3.6) as well as sea ice (LIM2) and land surface model components (JSBACH), which are coupled through the OASIS3-MCT software package. FOCI includes a number of optional modules which can be activated depending on the scientific question of interest. In the atmosphere, interactive stratospheric chemistry can be used (ECHAM6-HAMMOZ) to study, for example, the effects of the ozone hole on the climate system. In the ocean, a biogeochemistry model (MOPS) is available to study the global carbon cycle. A unique feature of FOCI is the ability to explicitly resolve mesoscale ocean eddies in specific regions. This is realized in the ocean through nesting; first examples for the Agulhas Current and the Gulf Stream systems are described here. FOCI therefore bridges the gap between coarse-resolution climate models and global high-resolution weather prediction and ocean-only models. It allows to study the evolution of the climate system on regional and seasonal to (multi-) decadal scales. The development of FOCI resulted from a combination of the long-standing expertise in ocean and climate modeling in several research units and divisions at GEOMAR. FOCI will thus be used to complement and interpret long-term observations in the Atlantic, enhance the process understanding of the role of mesoscale oceanic eddies for large-scale oceanic and atmospheric circulation patterns, study feedback mechanisms with stratospheric processes, estimate future ocean acidification, improve the simulation of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation changes and their influence on climate, ocean chemistry and biology. In this paper we present both the scientific vision for the development of FOCI as well as some technical details. This includes a first validation of the different model components using several configurations of FOCI. Results show that the model in its basic configuration runs stably under pre-industrial control as well as under historical forcing, and produces a mean climate and variability which compares well with observations, reanalysis products and other climate models. The nested configurations reduce some long-standing biases in climate models and are an important step forward to include the atmospheric response in multi-decadal eddy-rich configurations.

Description: Ecosystem connectivity is an essential consideration for marine spatial planning of competing interests in the deep sea. Immobile, adult communities are connected through freely floating larvae, depending on new recruits for their health and to adapt to external pressures. We hypothesize that the vertical swimming ability of deep-sea larvae, before they permanently settle at the bottom, is one way larvae can control dispersal. We test this hypothesis with more than 3x108 simulated particles with a range of active swimming behaviours embedded within the currents of a high-resolution ocean model. Despite much stronger horizontal ocean currents, vertical swimming of simulated larvae can have an order of magnitude impact on dispersal. These strong relationships between larval dispersal, pathways, and active swimming demonstrate that lack of data on larval behaviour traits is a serious impediment to modelling deep-sea ecosystem connectivity; this uncertainty greatly limits our ability to develop ecologically coherent marine protected area networks.

Description: The North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) is a crucial component of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and is therefore an important factor of the climate system. In order to estimate the mean relative contributions, sources, and pathways of the NADW at the southern exit of the Labrador Sea, a Lagrangian particle experiment is performed. The particles were seeded according to the strength of the velocity field along the 53∘ N section and traced 40 years backward in time in the three-dimensional velocity and hydrography field. The resulting transport pathways, their sources and corresponding transit timescales were inferred. Our experiment shows that, of the 30.1 Sv of NADW passing 53∘ N on average, the majority of this water is associated with a diapycnal mass flux without contact to the atmosphere, accounting for 14.3 Sv (48 %), where 6.2 Sv originate from the Labrador Sea, compared to 4.7 Sv from the Irminger Sea. The second-largest contribution originates from the mixed layer with 7.2 Sv (24 %), where the Labrador Sea contribution (5.9 Sv) dominates over the Irminger Sea contribution (1.0 Sv). Another 5.7 Sv (19 %) of NADW crosses the Greenland–Scotland Ridge within the NADW density class, where about two-thirds pass the Denmark Strait, while one-third crosses the Iceland–Scotland Ridge. The NADW exported at 53∘ N is hence dominated by entrainment through the diapycnal mass flux and mixed-layer origin in the Labrador Sea.

Description: Agulhas leakage, the transport of warm and salty waters from the Indian Ocean into the South Atlantic, has been suggested to increase under anthropogenic climate change, due to strengthening Southern Hemisphere westerly winds. The resulting enhanced salt transport into the South Atlantic may counteract the projected weakening of the Atlantic overturning circulation through warming and ice melting. Here we combine existing and new observation- and model-based Agulhas leakage estimates to robustly quantify its decadal evolution since the 1960s. We find that Agulhas leakage very likely increased between the mid-1960s and mid-1980s, in agreement with strengthening winds. Our models further suggest that increased leakage was related to enhanced transport outside eddies and coincided with strengthened Atlantic overturning circulation. Yet, it appears unlikely that Agulhas leakage substantially increased since the 1990s, despite continuously strengthening winds. Our results stress the need to better understand decadal leakage variability to detect and predict anthropogenic trends.

Description: With the increase in computational power, ocean models with kilometer-scale resolution have emerged over the last decade. These models have been used for quantifying the energetic exchanges between spatial scales, informing the design of eddy parametrizations, and preparing observing networks. The increase in resolution, however, has drastically increased the size of model outputs, making it difficult to transfer and analyze the data. It remains, nonetheless, of primary importance to assess more systematically the realism of these models. Here, we showcase a cloud-based analysis framework proposed by the Pangeo project that aims to tackle such distribution and analysis challenges. We analyze the output of eight submesoscale-permitting simulations, all on the cloud, for a crossover region of the upcoming Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) altimeter mission near the Gulf Stream separation. The cloud-based analysis framework (i) minimizes the cost of duplicating and storing ghost copies of data and (ii) allows for seamless sharing of analysis results amongst collaborators. We describe the framework and provide example analyses (e.g., sea-surface height variability, submesoscale vertical buoyancy fluxes, and comparison to predictions from the mixed-layer instability parametrization). Basin- to global-scale, submesoscale-permitting models are still at their early stage of development; their cost and carbon footprints are also rather large. It would, therefore, benefit the community to document the different model configurations for future best practices. We also argue that an emphasis on data analysis strategies would be crucial for improving the models themselves.

Description: A hierarchy of global 1/4° (ORCA025) and Atlantic Ocean 1/20° nested (VIKING20X) ocean/sea-ice models is described. It is shown that the eddy-rich configurations performed in hindcasts of the past 50–60 years under CORE and JRA55-do atmospheric forcings realistically simulate the large-scale horizontal circulation, the distribution of the mesoscale, overflow and convective processes, and the representation of regional current systems in the North and South Atlantic. The representation, and in particular the long-term temporal evolution, of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) strongly depends on numerical choices for the application of freshwater fluxes. The interannual variability of the AMOC instead is highly correlated among the model experiments and also with observations, including the 2010 minimum observed by RAPID at 26.5° N pointing at a dominant role of the forcing. Regional observations in western boundary current systems at 53° N, 26.5° N and 11° S are explored in respect to their ability to represent the AMOC and to monitor the temporal evolution of the AMOC. Apart from the basin-scale measurements at 26.5° N, it is shown that in particular the outflow of North Atlantic Deepwater at 53° N is a good indicator of the subpolar AMOC trend during the recent decades, if the latter is provided in density coordinates. The good reproduction of observed AMOC and WBC trends in the most reasonable simulations indicate that the eddy-rich VIKING20X is capable in representing realistic forcing-related and ocean-intrinsic trends.

Description: Observations of the eastern subpolar North Atlantic in the 2010s show exceptional freshening and cooling of the upper ocean, peaking in 2016 with the lowest salinities recorded for 120 years. Published theories for the mechanisms driving the freshening include: reduced transport of saltier, warmer surface waters northwards from the subtropics associated with reduced meridional overturning; shifts in the pathways of fresher, cooler surface water from the Labrador Sea driven by changing patterns of wind stress; and the eastward expansion of the subpolar gyre. Using output from a high-resolution hindcast model simulation, we propose that the primary cause of the exceptional freshening and cooling is reduced surface heat loss in the Labrador Sea. Tracking virtual fluid particles in the model backwards from the eastern subpolar North Atlantic between 1990 and 2020 shows the major cause of the freshening and cooling to be an increased outflow of relatively fresh and cold surface waters from the Labrador Sea; with a minor contribution from reduced transport of warmer, saltier surface water northward from the subtropics. The cooling, but not the freshening, produced by these changing proportions of waters of subpolar and subtropical origin is mitigated by reduced along-track heat loss to the atmosphere in the North Atlantic Current. We analyse modelled boundary exchanges and water mass transformation in the Labrador Sea to show that since 2000, while inflows of lighter surface waters remain steady, the increasing output of these waters is due to reduced surface heat loss in the Labrador Sea beginning in the early 2000s. Tracking particles further upstream reveals that the primary source of the increased volume of lighter water transported out of the Labrador Sea is increased recirculation of water, and therefore longer residence times, in the upper 500–1000 m of the subpolar gyre.

Description: The inflow of relatively warm and salty water from the Indian Ocean into the South Atlantic via Agulhas leakage is important for the global overturning circulation and the global climate. In this study, we analyse the robustness of Agulhas leakage estimates as well as the thermohaline property modifications of Agulhas leakage south of Africa. Lagrangian experiments with both the newly developed tool Parcels and the well established tool Ariane were performed to simulate Agulhas leakage in the eddy-rich ocean–sea-ice model INALT20 (1/20∘ horizontal resolution) forced by the JRA55-do atmospheric boundary conditions. The average transport, its variability, trend and the transit time from the Agulhas Current to the Cape Basin of Agulhas leakage is simulated comparably with both Lagrangian tools, emphasizing the robustness of our method. Different designs of the Lagrangian experiment alter in particular the total transport of Agulhas leakage by up to 2 Sv, but the variability and trend of the transport are similar across these estimates. During the transit from the Agulhas Current at 32∘ S to the Cape Basin, a cooling and freshening of Agulhas leakage waters occurs especially at the location of the Agulhas Retroflection, resulting in a density increase as the thermal effect dominates. Beyond the strong air–sea exchange around South Africa, Agulhas leakage warms and salinifies the water masses below the thermocline in the South Atlantic.

Description: The Antarctic ozone hole has led to substantial changes in the Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation, such as the strengthening and poleward shift of the midlatitude westerly jet. Ozone recovery during the twenty-first century is expected to continue to affect the jet's strength and position, leading to changes in the opposite direction compared to the twentieth century and competing with the effect of increasing greenhouse gases. Simulations of the Earth's past and future climate, such as those performed for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), require an accurate representation of these ozone effects. Climate models that use prescribed ozone fields lack the important feedbacks between ozone chemistry, radiative heating, dynamics, and transport. In addition, when the prescribed ozone field was not generated by the same model to which it is prescribed, the imposed ozone hole is inconsistent with the simulated dynamics. These limitations ultimately affect the climate response to ozone depletion. This study investigates the impact of prescribing the ozone field recommended for CMIP6 on the simulated effects of ozone depletion in the Southern Hemisphere. We employ a new state-of-the-art coupled climate model, Flexible Ocean Climate Infrastructure (FOCI), to compare simulations in which the CMIP6 ozone is prescribed with simulations in which the ozone chemistry is calculated interactively. At the same time, we compare the roles played by ozone depletion and by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in driving changes in the Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation using a series of historical sensitivity simulations. FOCI captures the known effects of ozone depletion, simulating an austral spring and summer intensification of the midlatitude westerly winds and of the Brewer–Dobson circulation in the Southern Hemisphere. Ozone depletion is the primary driver of these historical circulation changes in FOCI. The austral spring cooling of the polar cap in the lower stratosphere in response to ozone depletion is weaker in the simulations that prescribe the CMIP6 ozone field. We attribute this weaker response to a prescribed ozone hole that is different to the model dynamics and is not collocated with the simulated polar vortex, altering the strength and position of the planetary wavenumber one. As a result, the dynamical contribution to the ozone-induced austral spring lower-stratospheric cooling is suppressed, leading to a weaker cooling trend. Consequently, the intensification of the polar night jet is also weaker in the simulations with prescribed CMIP6 ozone. In contrast, the differences in the tropospheric westerly jet response to ozone depletion fall within the internal variability present in the model. The persistence of the Southern Annular Mode is shorter in the prescribed ozone chemistry simulations. The results obtained with the FOCI model suggest that climate models that prescribe the CMIP6 ozone field still simulate a weaker Southern Hemisphere stratospheric response to ozone depletion compared to models that calculate the ozone chemistry interactively.

Description: The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a key component of the climate through its transport of heat in the North Atlantic Ocean. Decadal changes in the AMOC, whether through internal variability or anthropogenically forced weakening, therefore have wide-ranging impacts. In this Review, we synthesize the understanding of contemporary decadal variability in the AMOC, bringing together evidence from observations, ocean reanalyses, forced models and AMOC proxies. Since 1980, there is evidence for periods of strengthening and weakening, although the magnitudes of change (5–25%) are uncertain. In the subpolar North Atlantic, the AMOC strengthened until the mid-1990s and then weakened until the early 2010s, with some evidence of a strengthening thereafter; these changes are probably linked to buoyancy forcing related to the North Atlantic Oscillation. In the subtropics, there is some evidence of the AMOC strengthening from 2001 to 2005 and strong evidence of a weakening from 2005 to 2014. Such large interannual and decadal variability complicates the detection of ongoing long-term trends, but does not preclude a weakening associated with anthropogenic warming. Research priorities include developing robust and sustainable solutions for the long-term monitoring of the AMOC, observation–modelling collaborations to improve the representation of processes in the North Atlantic and better ways to distinguish anthropogenic weakening from internal variability.