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  • 1
    Online Resource
    Online Resource
    Vorhaben (Verbund) PalMod-2-1: Mariner Kohlenstoffkreislauf : BMBF Förderinitiative Paläo Modellierung (PalMod) : Abschlussbericht : Laufzeit: 01.08.2015-31.05.2020 = Final Report of the project PalMod-2-1: The marine carbon cycle (2020)
    [Hamburg] : [Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M)]
    Details Availability
    Keywords: Forschungsbericht ; Pleistozän ; Paläoklima ; Modell ; Simulation ; Meer ; Kohlenstoffkreislauf
    Type of Medium: Online Resource
    Pages: 1 Online-Ressource (17 Seiten, 234,62 KB)
    URL: https://doi.org/10.2314/KXP:1783596228
    DOI: 10.2314/KXP:1783596228
    Language: German
    Note: Paralleltitel dem englischen Berichtsblatt entnommen , Förderkennzeichen BMBF 01LP1505A-G , Verbundnummer 01161825 , Unterschiede zwischen dem gedruckten Dokument und der elektronischen Ressource können nicht ausgeschlossen werden , Sprache der Zusammenfassung: Deutsch, Englisch
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  • 2
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Simulation of modern and glacial climates with a coupled global model of intermediate complexity (1998)
    [s.l.] : Macmillan Magazines Ltd.
    Nature 391 (1998), S. 351-356 
    Details
    ISSN: 1476-4687
    Source: Nature Archives 1869 - 2009
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Notes: [Auszug] A global coupled ocean–atmosphere model of intermediate complexity is used to simulate the equilibrium climate of both today and the Last Glacial Maximum, around 21,000 years ago. The model successfully predicts the atmospheric and oceanic circulations, temperature distribution, hydrological ...
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/34839
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    Paper (German National Licenses)
    Fulltext
  • 3
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Long-Term Global Warming Scenarios Computed with an Efficient Coupled Climate Model (1999)
    Springer
    Climatic change 43 (1999), S. 353-367 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1480
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract We present global warming scenarios computed with an intermediate-complexity atmosphere-ocean-sea ice model which has been extensively validated for a range of past climates (e.g., the Last Glacial Maximum). Our simulations extend to the year 3000, beyond the expected peak of CO2 concentrations. The thermohaline ocean circulation declines strongly in all our scenarios over the next 50 years due to a thermal effect. Changes in the hydrological cycle determine whether the circulation recovers or collapses in the long run. Both outcomes are possible within present uncertainty limits. In case of a collapse, a substantial long-lasting cooling over the North Atlantic and a drying of Europe is simulated.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1005474526406
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    Paper (German National Licenses)
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  • 4
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Grid point surface air temperature calculations with a fast turnaround: Combining the results of IMAGE and a GCM (1996)
    Springer
    Climatic change 34 (1996), S. 479-512 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-1480
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract This paper describes a methodology that combines the outputs of (1) the Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect (IMAGE Version 1.0) of the Netherlands National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection (RIVM) (given a greenhouse gas emission policy, this model can estimate the effects such as global mean surface air temperature change for a wide variety of policies) and (2) ECHAM-1/LSG, the Global Circulation Model (GCM) of the Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, Germany. The combination enables one to calculate grid point surface air temperature changes for different scenarios with a turnaround time that is much quicker than that for a GCM. The methodology is based upon a geographical pattern of the ratio of grid point temperature change to global mean values during a certain period of the simulation, as calculated by ECHAM-1/LSG for the 1990 Scenarios A and D of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). A procedure, based upon signal-to noise ratios in the outputs, enabled us to estimate where we have confidence in the methodology; this is at about 23% to 83% of the total of 2,048 grid points, depending upon the scenario and the decade in the simulation. It was found that the methodology enabled IMAGE to provide useful estimates of the GCM-predicted grid point temperature changes. These estimates were within 0.5K (0.25K) throughout the 100 years of a given simulation for at least 79% (74%) of the grid points where we are confident in applying the methodology. The temperature ratio pattern from Scenario A enabled IMAGE to provide useful estimates of temperature change within 0.5K (0.25K) in Scenario D for at least 88% (68%) of the grid points where we have confidence; indicating that the methodology is transferable to other scenarios. Tests with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory GCM indicated, however, that a temperature ratio pattern may have to be developed for each GCM. The methodology, using a temperature ratio pattern from the 1990 IPCC Scenario A and involving IMAGE, gave gridded surface air temperature patterns for the 1992 IPCC radiative-forcing Scenarios C and E and the RIVM emission Scenario B; none of these scenarios has been simulated by ECHAM-1/LSG. The simulations reflect the uncertainty range of a future warming.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00139303
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    Paper (German National Licenses)
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  • 5
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    A new model for climate system analysis: Outline of the model and application to palaeoclimate simulations (1999)
    Springer
    Environmental modeling and assessment 4 (1999), S. 209-216 
    Details
    ISSN: 1573-2967
    Keywords: climate modelling ; climate system ; system analysis ; climate system modelling ; Earth system modelling
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract We present a new reduced-form model for climate system analysis. This model, called CLIMBER-2 (for CLIMate and BiosphERe, level 2), fills the current gap between simple, highly parameterized climate models and computationally expensive coupled models of global atmospheric and oceanic circulation. We outline the basic assumptions implicit in CLIMBER-2 and we present examples of climate system analysis including a study of atmosphere–ocean interaction during the last glacial maximum, an analysis of synergism between various components of the climate system during the mid-Holocene around 6000 years ago, and a transient simulation of climate change during the last 8000 years. These studies demonstrate the feasibility of a computationally efficient analysis of climate system dynamics which is a prerequisite for future climate impact research and, more generally, Earth system analysis, i.e., the analysis of feedbacks between our environment and human activities.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1019016418068
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    Paper (German National Licenses)
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  • 6
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    Past abrupt changes, tipping points and cascading impacts in the Earth system (2021)
    Nature Research
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-02-07
    Description: The geological record shows that abrupt changes in the Earth system can occur on timescales short enough to challenge the capacity of human societies to adapt to environmental pressures. In many cases, abrupt changes arise from slow changes in one component of the Earth system that eventually pass a critical threshold, or tipping point, after which impacts cascade through coupled climate–ecological–social systems. The chance of detecting abrupt changes and tipping points increases with the length of observations. The geological record provides the only long-term information we have on the conditions and processes that can drive physical, ecological and social systems into new states or organizational structures that may be irreversible within human time frames. Here, we use well-documented abrupt changes of the past 30 kyr to illustrate how their impacts cascade through the Earth system. We review useful indicators of upcoming abrupt changes, or early warning signals, and provide a perspective on the contributions of palaeoclimate science to the understanding of abrupt changes in the Earth system.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 7
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    The Earth system model CLIMBER-X v1.0 – Part 1: Climate model description and validation​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ (2022)
    Copernicus Publications (EGU)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-02-07
    Description: The newly developed fast Earth system model CLIMBER-X is presented. The climate component of CLIMBER-X consists of a 2.5-D semi-empirical statistical–dynamical atmosphere model, a 3-D frictional–geostrophic ocean model, a dynamic–thermodynamic sea ice model and a land surface model. All the model components are discretized on a regular lat–long grid with a horizontal resolution of . The model has a throughput of ∼ 10 000 simulation years per day on a single node with 16 CPUs on a high-performance computer and is designed to simulate the evolution of the Earth system on temporal scales ranging from decades to 〉100 000 years. A comprehensive evaluation of the model performance for the present day and the historical period shows that CLIMBER-X is capable of realistically reproducing many observed climate characteristics, with results that generally lie within the range of state-of-the-art general circulation models. The analysis of model performance is complemented by a thorough assessment of climate feedbacks and model sensitivities to changes in external forcings and boundary conditions. Limitations and applicability of the model are critically discussed. CLIMBER-X also includes a detailed representation of the global carbon cycle and is coupled to an ice sheet model, which will be described in separate papers. CLIMBER-X is available as open-source code and is expected to be a useful tool for studying past climate changes and for the investigation of the long-term future evolution of the climate.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 8
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    The Earth system model CLIMBER-X v1.0 – Part 2: The global carbon cycle (2023)
    Copernicus Publications (EGU)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-02-07
    Description: The carbon cycle component of the newly developed Earth System Model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-X is presented. The model represents the cycling of carbon through atmosphere, vegetation, soils, seawater and marine sediments. Exchanges of carbon with geological reservoirs occur through sediment burial, rock weathering and volcanic degassing. The state-of-the-art HAMOCC6 model is employed to simulate ocean biogeochemistry and marine sediments processes. The land model PALADYN simulates the processes related to vegetation and soil carbon dynamics, including permafrost and peatlands. The dust cycle in the model allows for an interactive determination of the input of the micro-nutrient iron into the ocean. A rock weathering scheme is implemented into the model, with the weathering rate depending on lithology, runoff and soil temperature. CLIMBER-X includes a simple representation of the methane cycle, with explicitly modelled natural emissions from land and the assumption of a constant residence time of CH4 in the atmosphere. Carbon isotopes 13C and 14C are tracked through all model compartments and provide a useful diagnostic for model-data comparison. A comprehensive evaluation of the model performance for present–day and the historical period shows that CLIMBER-X is capable of realistically reproducing the historical evolution of atmospheric CO2 and CH4, but also the spatial distribution of carbon on land and the 3D structure of biogeochemical ocean tracers. The analysis of model performance is complemented by an assessment of carbon cycle feedbacks and model sensitivities compared to state-of-the-art CMIP6 models. Enabling interactive carbon cycle in CLIMBER-X results in a relatively minor slow-down of model computational performance by ~20 %, compared to a throughput of ~10,000 simulation years per day on a single node with 16 CPUs on a high performance computer in a climate–only model setup. CLIMBER-X is therefore well suited to investigate the feedbacks between climate and the carbon cycle on temporal scales ranging from decades to 〉100,000 years.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 9
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    Multistability and Transient Response of the Greenland Ice Sheet to Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions (2023)
    AGU (American Geophysical Union) | Wiley
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-02-07
    Description: Understanding the future fate of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) in the context of anthropogenic CO2 emissions is crucial to predict sea level rise. With the fully coupled Earth system model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-X, we study the stability of the GIS and its transient response to CO2 emissions over the next 10 Kyr. Bifurcation points exist at global temperature anomalies of 0.6 and 1.6 K relative to pre-industrial. For system states in the vicinity of the equilibrium ice volumes corresponding to these temperature anomalies, mass loss rate and sensitivity of mass loss to cumulative CO2 emission peak. These critical ice volumes are crossed for cumulative emissions of 1,000 and 2,500 GtC, which would cause long-term sea level rise by 1.8 and 6.9 m respectively. In summary, we find tipping of the GIS within the range of the temperature limits of the Paris agreement. Key Points Bifurcation points exist at global mean temperature anomalies of 0.6 and 1.6 K relative to pre-industrial Mass loss rate and sensitivity to cumulative CO2 emission peak near the equilibrium ice volumes belonging to these temperature anomalies Substantial long-term mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet for cumulative emissions larger than 1,000 Gt carbon
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
  • 10
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    A transient coupled general circulation model (CGCM) simulation of the past 3 million years (2023)
    Copernicus Publications (EGU)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-05-22
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
    Format: text
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    OceanRep: Article in a Scientific Journal - peer-reviewed
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